SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds are possible across northeast Indiana,
northwest Ohio, and eastern Michigan on Saturday. Large hail and
damaging gusts are possible over much of southwest Texas into
southeast New Mexico during the afternoon and evening.
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the upper MS
Valley, while a separate weaker system drifts east across the
central to southern Plains. Meanwhile, weak ridging will remain over
the Southeast, with a stronger upper high over southern CA.
At the surface, low pressure will move across Lower MI, with drying
across the upper MS Valley as winds veer. A diffuse boundary will
extend southwestward into parts of MO, KS, and OK, providing a focus
for storms.
...Great Lakes Region...
Strong heating will occur ahead of a cold front, with upper 60s F
dewpoints over IN, OH, and much of Lower MI. Little cooling aloft is
forecast with the glancing upper wave, but MLCAPE will likely exceed
2000 J/kg. Convergence within the surface trough will lead to
scattered storms along the wind shift, with a few severe gusts and
marginal hail possible. Low-level shear will be strongest over
northern Lower MI, and an isolated supercell cannot be ruled out.
Some uncertainty exist regarding overall storm coverage, as midlevel
subsidence moves in late in the day.
...OH/Mid MS Valleys to the southern Plains...
Ongoing storms with outflow may exist from parts of the South Plains
into OK Saturday morning. Any associated boundaries may provide a
focus for redevelopment during the afternoon, as 2000-3000 J/kg
MUCAPE develops. Aside from that, moist easterly low-level flow
through a deep layer will be favorable for thunderstorms across
almost all of Southwest TX, including the Big Bend area. While shear
will be weak, lightly veering winds with height along with steep
lapse rates and strong instability should lead to a few robust,
slow-moving storms with localized damaging hail and downburst
potential.
..Jewell.. 07/11/2025
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