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MD 0746 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 205... FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0746 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Tue May 09 2023 Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205... Valid 092052Z - 092215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205 continues. SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will continue into the evening across southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina. DISCUSSION...There have been several severe hail reports and at least one damaging wind report across portions of eastern North Carolina where a few supercells have developed and moved southeast. These storms will continue to pose a severe weather threat as they move southeast as the environment becomes increasingly favorable. Farther north, storms along the front are less organized thus far. Likely due to weaker instability in the region with temperatures only near 80F with dewpoints near 60F. These storms could increase in severe weather potential as they move southeast toward better instability, but likely will not pose as great of a severe weather threat as the supercells farther south. These storms are closely tied to diurnal heating and will likely start to wane by mid to late evening as the boundary layer cools. ..Bentley.. 05/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK... LAT...LON 37027882 37337845 36977687 35577589 34567608 34267692 34167750 34307793 34587828 34987850 35667861 37027882 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Tue May 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of severe thunderstorms will continue moving east/southeast across parts of eastern Kansas through evening. Embedded swaths of very large hail, damaging severe gusts, and a few brief tornadoes are possible. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are also possible through early evening across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia. ...20z Update - KS/MO Vicinity... The main changes to the outlook at 20z are to reorient the Enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) to include more of eastern KS to the west-central MO border. This is based on the expected continued east/southeast motion of the bowing line of convection currently over central to northeast KS. Swaths of damaging gusts, very large hail and a couple of tornadoes will remain possible into early evening. Additional thunderstorm development remains possible with westward extent into parts of western KS along the outflow boundary as low-level upslope flow and strong heating allow for some airmass recovery from morning convection. ...Elsewhere... No other changes have been made to the previous outlook. For details, see previous discussion below. ..Leitman.. 05/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Tue May 09 2023/ ...Kansas/southern Nebraska... A severe MCS continues to mature/expand and show early signs of modest southeastward acceleration as of late morning/1130AM CDT across north-central Kansas. As a surface cold pool expands, persistent warm/moist advection will help to maintain this MCS southeastward parallel to the instability/thickness gradient, with additional southward expansion likely across central Kansas early this afternoon as the boundary layer warms/destabilizes. The potential for widespread/locally intense wind gusts will likely increase as the MCS reaches east-central Kansas including the I-135 and near/south of I-70 corridors and Kansas Turnpike vicinity. Large hail will be possible, especially with semi-discrete storms on the southwest flank of the MCS (or completely distinct from it). A brief tornado risk may also exist with line-embedded circulations. Additional strong/severe development cannot be ruled out later this afternoon in vicinity of trailing outflow across northwest Kansas and/or atop the surface cold pool across northern Kansas/far southwest Nebraska. Storms may also develop around late afternoon trailing westward to the dryline in southwest Kansas. Should this occur, a broader MCS may form and push south-southeast into the Ozark Plateau to northern Oklahoma this evening. But an increasingly disorganized trend is anticipated tonight as mid-level flow weakens substantially with southern extent owing to the presence of an anticyclone over southern Oklahoma. ...Southeast Virginia and eastern Carolinas... No changes in outlook reasoning/assessment for this region. A shortwave trough will move southeast from the Lower Great Lakes across the Mid-Atlantic States today. A belt of enhanced westerly flow will accompany this feature, and provide support for sufficient deep-layer shear to foster thunderstorm organization. Although surface winds will be veered mostly to the west-northwest, there will still be adequate low-level moisture in place for weak to moderate buoyancy to develop given abundant insolation. Most guidance shows isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon with a mix of multicells and a few supercells. A threat for both severe hail and damaging winds should be greatest across southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina, with more of an isolated damaging wind threat southward into South Carolina. ...Texas/Louisiana... Strong/locally severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, influenced by development/intensification on the periphery of multiple MCVs via two de-intensified MCSs. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will likely increase downstream of these features, later this morning into the afternoon. Despite the weak shear, low to mid 70s surface dew points suggest a threat for wet microbursts and isolated severe hail will be possible. A conditionally favorable supercell threat may redevelop in a portion of Deep South Texas later this afternoon. A belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies to the south of the minor mid-level lows will yield adequate bulk shear for supercells along residual convective outflow. Primary uncertainty is the degree of low-level moisture recovery in the wake of morning convective outflows (mean mixing ratio below 12 g/kg in the 12Z BRO sounding). ...Northeast Colorado to western North Dakota... Isolated to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorm development is possible along a surface trough from the Nebraska Panhandle to western North Dakota vicinity. While MLCAPE will likely remain weak (at or below 1000 J/kg), 500-mb southwesterlies around 30-35 kt will support a threat for isolated severe hail and locally strong gusts into the early evening. Overnight, a cluster of elevated thunderstorms should develop in the northeast Colorado to Wyoming/Nebraska border area as weak mid-level height falls overspread weak low-level upslope flow. Isolated large hail will be the main threat. ...Central/eastern Montana... Long hodographs/forcing for ascent enhanced by an approaching mid-level trough, in conjunction with a modestly moist/unstable environment, may allow for some stronger or locally severe storms capable of hail and/or wind from mid-afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Tue May 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Locally extremely critical conditions are possible across parts of central New Mexico. The most likely locations for these conditions are within the terrain where fuels may be a touch less receptive to fire spread. Dry thunderstorms are at least initially possible in the vicinity of the Raton Mesa. Given the increase in moisture to the east, it is not clear how far east storms will remain dry. ..Wendt.. 05/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Tue May 09 2023/ ...Synopsis... By day2/Wed, a compact mid-level trough will be centered over the Southwest with strong flow aloft extending eastward over the southern Rockies and High Plains. A surface low will rapidly deepen aiding in strong surface flow across such of NM, southern CO and the High Plains. Dry downslope winds and low humidity will support widespread critical fire-weather concerns. ...New Mexico and southern Colorado... As the main shortwave begins to eject over the southern Rockies, 60-70 kt of mid-level southwesterly flow will overspread NM and southern CO. A surface low will quickly deepen across southern CO enhancing downslope pressure gradients across much of the southern Rockies and High Plains. Widespread winds of 20-30 mph with higher gusts are likely. By early afternoon, very warm surface temperatures, in combination with downsloping winds and the already dry air mass will favor RH values below 10%. Widespread critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated over much of central NM, extending north into southern CO. There remains some uncertainty on eastern extent of fire-weather conditions as the deepening low begins to draw surface moisture farther north and west. High-based thunderstorms may pose some risk for dry lightning in the evening across portions of the southern High Plains. Strong surface wind fields may also support some risk for elevated fire-weather concerns despite more marginal humidity. The eastern extent of the probabilities may be adjusted in coming outlooks, but for now, uncertainty remains too high to introduce fire-weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Tue May 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... AMENDED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast Thursday across the central Plains vicinity, where large hail can be expected along with locally damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes. ...19z Update - Eastern CO/Western KS/OK... The Day 3 outlook for Thursday (May 11) has been amended for expected severe potential further west than previously forecast. Operational 09/12z NAM/GFS forecast guidance has trended slower/further west (and more in line with ECMWF and 12z NAM 3km/RRFS/FV3) with the progression of an ejecting mid/upper shortwave trough over the southern/central High Plains. This slower ejection of the shortwave trough is common in systems that tend to have a stronger meridional component. A surface low is expected to be located over southeast CO with a dryline extending south through the TX Panhandle and western TX Thursday morning. Convection will likely develop by late morning near the triple point over southeast CO and arcing east/southeast along the dryline through western KS. This morning activity will pose a risk for large hail initially. As the upper wave lifts northeast into the afternoon, convection is expected to shift north/northeast into a more unstable airmass. At the same time, additional development is expected south/southeast along the eastward-advancing dryline into central KS/OK. Supercells capable of all severe hazards will be possible from parts of western/central KS into OK. A second round of storms may impact parts of eastern CO and western KS behind morning convection and associated with the eastward meandering surface low. Large hail and strong gusts will be possible with any second round of convection that develops during the afternoon. ...Previous Day 3 Discussion (issued 0730z 09 May)... ...Synopsis... An upper low progged to lie over the central High Plains area early in the day is forecast to pivot slowly northeastward across Nebraska and into South Dakota through the period. At this occurs, a surface low is forecast to shift northeastward out of Colorado along roughly the same path, while a trailing trough/dryline reaches central Kansas/western Oklahoma by late afternoon. Elsewhere, ridging on the western and eastern flanks of the low will affect the West Coast, and the Southeast/Midwest, while northwesterly flow aloft prevails across New England. ...The Plains states from South Dakota to Oklahoma... Ahead of the advancing surface system, afternoon heating across the central Plains and vicinity will combine with a seasonably moist boundary layer to yield moderate destabilization -- particularly from central Nebraska southward. While a low-level capping inversion will limit convective coverage with southward extent, particularly given the northeastward advance of the upper system, isolated storms are forecast to develop along the dryline by late afternoon as far south as central Kansas and western Oklahoma. Here, steep lapse rates and veering/increasing flow with height will support supercells, with very large hail and a damaging gust or two expected, and possibly a tornado. Farther north -- into Nebraska and South Dakota, instability will decrease with northward extent. Still, with low-level southeasterly flow veering to a more southerly direction at mid levels will support organized/rotating storms, with risk for hail and locally damaging wind gusts along with a tornado or two. Storms may grow upscale overnight as the low-level jet increases, spreading across the Mid-Missouri Valley along with some hail/wind potential. ..Leitman.. 05/09/2023 Read more

Missouri’s progress in planting corn was 92% and was quicker than occurred during the drought year of 2012, when dry weather allowed farmers to get in the field. Some Missouri farmers this year were waiting for rain to plant, however. AgWeb (Mexico, Mo.), May 9, 2023

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Tue May 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms -- capable of producing damaging winds and hail, and potentially a couple of tornadoes -- are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening within an area centered over the central High Plains. ...Southeast MT south to the OK/TX Panhandles... An upper trough over the western U.S. will shift east across the Four Corners vicinity toward the central/southern High Plains on Wednesday. As this occurs, meridional/southerly mid/upper level flow will modestly increase over the southern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains vicinity. At the surface, a weak low/trough will extend southward from near the Palmer Divide to the NM/TX border. Southeasterly low-level flow will maintain modest boundary-layer moisture over the region with dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Near-60 F dewpoints are possible further east toward western NE/KS. Steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) atop this modest boundary-layer moisture will support weak to moderate destabilization. Some model discrepancy is apparent over portions of southwest NE/northwest KS/northeast CO vicinity with the 12z NAM maintaining a much cooler airmass compared to other guidance. This is likely due to placement of morning convection and outflow related to storms in the Day 1 period. This lends to quite a bit of uncertainty in convective evolution in the Day 2 period. Nevertheless, convection is expected to develop near higher terrain during the early/mid-afternoon and spread east/northeast across eastern WY/CO and into SD/NE/KS by evening. Additional more isolated convection also is expected to develop along the surface trough over the southern High Plains. Initially, large hail will be the main hazard with more discrete storms. However, where stronger surface heating occurs, damaging gusts also will be possible. Some upscale development into clusters/bows may increase wind potential with time and eastward extent as well. The tornado risk is more uncertain. Low-level flow will generally be weak with northward extent and the more meridional flow is producing vertical shear profiles less favorable for tornadoes. The greatest relative risk will likely be confined to northeast CO and vicinity where backed low-level flow and somewhat stronger vertical shear is forecast. If the cooler, more capped solution presented by the NAM unfolds, the tornado risk may be diminished even across this area. ...Northeast ND into northern MN... A shortwave impulse is forecast to move atop the northern Plains/Upper Midwest upper ridge near the international border through the afternoon/evening. This will allow for a belt of enhanced westerly flow to overspread the region atop modest boundary-layer moisture (surface dewpoints in the 50s F). Forecast soundings indicate modestly steep midlevel lapse rates (around 7 C/km), aiding in weak destabilization (750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE). Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a southeastward-advancing front initially over Manitoba and spread southeast into northeast ND and northern MN. Vertically veering wind profiles will result in marginal effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt, allowing for organized cells despite rather low/midlevel flow. Elongated, straight forecast hodographs coupled with modest instability suggest marginally severe hail is possible with this activity as it spreads east/southeast near the international border from late afternoon into the evening hours. ...Southeast TX/Western LA vicinity... An upper ridge is forecast to extend from the TN Valley/Central Gulf Coast vicinity, north/northwest toward the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. A weakness/shortwave impulse within the western periphery of the eastern U.S. upper ridge will migrate across TX toward the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, a weak low/MCV is forecast in the vicinity of east-central TX Wednesday morning. This feature will lift north/northeast through the day. A few strong storms are possible within broader area of precipitation/ongoing MCS during the morning across southeast TX/Upper TX Coast. Additional convection and locally strong storms also will be possible through the afternoon across southeast TX toward the Sabine River and perhaps as far north as the ArkLaTex vicinity on the eastern periphery of the low/MCV. However, widespread cloudiness/persistent precipitation will limit heating and destabilization through the day. Some enhancement of otherwise modest vertical shear by the low/MCV may support transient strong/organized cells. Sporadic strong gusts will be the main hazard with this activity through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/09/2023 Read more

Game wardens with the Kansas Department of Wildlife and Parks warned boaters via Facebook that water levels in the state’s waterways remained low, in spite of the recent rainfall. Caution should be exercised when boating in the Sunflower State. WIBW-TV 13 (Topeka, Kan.), May 9, 2023

A rancher set out to restore the soil after scores of years of growing cotton and switched to growing grass and regeneratively grazing cattle after seeing other ranches do it. He started with land that had previously had cotton on it and seeded the land to grass. The land was fenced for managed grazing. With grass growing and cattle being moved through the tracts, the soil soon began to improve and contain more organic matter. The land became more productive, and the soil did not blow away. In late summer 2022, when neighbors who practiced conventional grazing had to sell three-quarters of their herd, the rancher with restored grassland only had to destock by 25%. Neighbors began to inquire about the abundant grass. SF | Successful Farming Online (Des Moines, Iowa), May 8, 2023

Hillsborough County residents were reminded to be mindful of their water use as rainfall in the first four months of the year has been below normal. From the start of the year through April 30, Hillsborough has received 4.87 inches, which is 6.06 inches less than average. Tampa Beacon (Seminole, Fla.), May 8, 2023

A wheat grower in Grant County estimated that he will lose about 95% of his wheat this year. He and four other farmers get their irrigation water from the same source and try to use the water as frugally and wisely as possible. KWCH 12 (Wichita, Kan.), May 8, 2023

WW 0202 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 202 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..05/08/23 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 202 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-027-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-121-127-133-145-151- 153-157-163-165-181-185-189-191-193-199-082240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER CLINTON EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MARION MASSAC MONROE PERRY POPE PULASKI RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SALINE UNION WABASH WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON INC051-125-129-147-163-173-082240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GIBSON PIKE POSEY SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK Read more

WW 202 SEVERE TSTM IL IN KS KY MO 082020Z - 090400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 202 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 320 PM CDT Mon May 8 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Southwest Indiana Far Southeast Kansas Western Kentucky Southern Missouri * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to steadily develop and intensify through late afternoon along multiple boundaries across the region, with initial development focused across a broad portion of southern Missouri. Storms are expected to further develop and move into southern Illinois and western Kentucky by early evening, and eventually southwest Indiana. A strongly unstable environment and moderately strong winds aloft will support some intense storms capable of large hail and damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles northwest of Joplin MO to 10 miles south southeast of Owensboro KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0733 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0733 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Mon May 08 2023 Areas affected...parts of far southeast South Dakota into northeast Nebraska...far southwestern Minnesota...and northwestern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 082051Z - 082315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated instances of large hail and perhaps a strong wind gust are possible late this afternoon and evening with any of the stronger storms that materialize. A WW issuance seems unlikely. DISCUSSION...Ample surface heating has supported temperatures rising into the 80s F. Given a dry boundary layer, the strong heating is supporting 7-9 C/km lapse rates from the surface extending up to 500 mb, contributing to 1000+ J/kg of tall, thin MLCAPE. Though tropospheric winds are unidirectional, adequate deep-layer speed shear is contributing to straight, elongated hodographs. The aforementioned kinematic and thermodynamic environment favors multicell clusters and splitting supercells capable of producing at least marginally severe hail, along with a damaging gust or two (given the deeply mixed boundary layer). Nonetheless, low-level convergence is weak given unidirectional flow, with storms expected to be isolated overall. Given the expected isolated storm coverage, a WW issuance is not currently anticipated. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 42669882 43499779 44079681 44179588 43909462 43499356 42939330 42419356 42009413 41399751 41399760 41489823 42669882 Read more

MD 0732 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHWEST TX INTO PARTS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0732 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Mon May 08 2023 Areas affected...Northwest TX into parts of the Concho Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 082036Z - 082230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is possible later this afternoon into the early evening. Isolated severe wind/hail are possible. DISCUSSION...At 2030 UTC, cumulus is gradually increasing from northwest TX into parts of the Concho Valley, within a hot and well-mixed environment. MLCAPE is generally weak to moderate (500-1500 J/kg) due to limited low-level moisture, but continued heating will remove MLCINH and increase the potential for isolated high-based storm development later this afternoon into the evening along a weak dryline. With generally weak deep-layer flow/shear, storms will quickly become outflow dominant, with localized severe gusts possible. With time, storms may initiate or propagate along outflows farther to the east, where greater buoyancy could support an isolated hail threat with the strongest cells. Due to the relatively limited coverage and magnitude of the threat, watch issuance is unlikely. ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 34359999 34179919 32829896 31709906 31149964 30970026 31000068 31040128 31390147 32900061 33820065 33920049 34359999 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Mon May 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are most likely from the Ozark Plateau to the Lower Ohio Valley, centered on 4 to 11 PM CDT. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main severe risks. Severe thunderstorms are also possible across areas such as South Texas. ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio Valley... Convective initiation appears likely within the next 1-2 hours across south-central MO per latest trends in visible imagery. A residual outflow boundary is noted extending from the southern MO cumulus field southeastward into southern Middle TN. This may be a preferential corridor for storm clusters and/or a more organized MCS to propagate into during the late evening hours. While most CAMs appear to be too low with CI based on noted trends, several solutions hint at the idea of convection maintaining intensity into middle TN. Wind probabilities were nudged slightly southward to address this potential. See MCD #729 for more details on near-term trends. ...Texas Coastal Plains... A cluster of strong thunderstorms has initiation northwest of the Houston metro area. While radar trends suggest this convection is slow to mature, GOES IR imagery has shown persistent cloud top cooling consistent with intensifying storms. Consequently, this activity may pose an isolated severe hail/damaging wind threat through the late afternoon given favorable environmental buoyancy and modest, but perhaps adequate, deep-layer shear. A storm or two is plausible to the southwest of this activity along the TX coast, but a diminishing cumulus field under approaching cirrus suggest additional CI is unlikely in the near-term. ..Moore/Jewell.. 05/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 AM CDT Mon May 08 2023/ ...Ozarks to Lower Ohio Valley... A linear cluster of storms across western/central Kentucky has gradually trended downscale since early this morning but still otherwise continues to persist southeastward. To its west/northwest, the most confident scenario is for the front and lingering outflow boundary to focus later afternoon convective development from southern Missouri into southern Illinois, and eventually western Kentucky. Regional WSR-88D VWP data continues to sample a core of relatively strong, potentially rear inflow/convectively enhanced, mid-level winds in the wake of the MCS across southeast Missouri/western Kentucky/southern Illinois vicinity. Resultant 40+ kt deep-layer shear will tend to largely persist regionally and support organized updrafts, including some supercells and sustained multicells as storms redevelop later this afternoon. This should particularly be the case within the greater instability reservoir across southern portions of Missouri/Illinois. Significant severe hail will be possible with initial supercells given the rather steep mid-level lapse rates emanating east from the Great Plains. However, convection should quickly tend to grow upscale into clusters where the deep-layer shear vector is oriented more parallel to the front from the Ozark Plateau to the Lower Ohio Valley. As such, a mix of large hail and damaging wind should be the primary threats as clusters/MCSs spread east-southeastward towards the Tennessee Valley and central Appalachians tonight. ...Texas Rio Grande vicinity/Edwards Plateau/Low Rolling Plains... The dryline from the Big Country to the Edwards Plateau should support isolated thunderstorms from late afternoon to early evening. Unlike previous days, winds should be weak through much of the large buoyancy profile as stronger upper flow is displaced southeast of the dryline due to a low-amplitude upper trough. While isolated large hail/localized severe-caliber gusts are possible, the scenario suggests that convection should tend to be rather disorganized across the Low Rolling Plains into parts of the Edwards Plateau. A somewhat higher probability of severe storms (Slight Risk), nonetheless with a number of lingering uncertainties, appears to exist from the middle Rio Grande vicinity northward into southern parts of the Edwards Plateau, potentially aided by a weak mid-level disturbance currently over northern Mexico. Near-dryline convective development aside, this could also include the eastward propagation of storms across the Rio Grande this evening. The northwestward advection of a very moist air mass, as sampled by the 12z CRP sounding with 1.80 PW value and 15.4 g/kg mean mixing ratio, will support robust 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE across south-central Texas this afternoon. Very steep mid-level lapse rates (12z DRT observed sounding), ample buoyancy, and around 30 kt effective shear will support large hail/severe-caliber wind gusts where storms do develop later this afternoon into evening. ...South-Central Plains to ArkLaTex - Marginal Risk Areas... Several mechanisms for sustaining deep convection are apparent this afternoon and evening, offering a threat for generally isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. The trailing portion of the weak quasi-stationary front near the Oklahoma/Kansas border may be a focus for later evening slow-moving thunderstorm development. Additionally, a pair of MCVs, one drifting east from north-central Texas and the other drifting northeast near the Upper TX Coast should support downstream isolated to scattered thunderstorms, peaking in intensity this afternoon to early evening. Modest deep-layer shear coincident with the eastern fringe of the steep mid-level lapse rate plume should yield sporadic multicell clusters and foster a threat for lower-end intensities of severe hail/wind. ...Mid-Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest... A belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies will be maintained to the south of a low near the Minnesota/Ontario border drifting northwest into southern Manitoba. Despite an ill-defined surface pattern, robust boundary-layer heating from Kansas towards the Middle Missouri Valley should overlap with the western periphery of a lingering plume of 50s F surface dew points over Iowa. This may aid in isolated late afternoon to early evening thunderstorms. With light low-level winds, speed shear through the cloud-bearing layer will foster a moderately elongated straight-line hodograph. This will favor splitting discrete cells with mid-level rotation and potential for isolated large hail, and perhaps even a brief tornado risk across far southeast Minnesota/northeast Iowa near a residual weak boundary. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CDT Mon May 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z Only minor changes to the ongoing forecast based on the latest guidance. Very dry air and a broadening area of 15-20 mph winds will support elevated fire weather in the Southwest and nearby High Plains tomorrow. There is also potential for isolated dry thunderstorms along/west of the dryline from the Davis Mountains into the Permian Basin. Fuels are more receptive into the Trans-Pecos, but coverage should remain too limited for highlights. ..Wendt.. 05/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Mon May 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... Stronger mid-level flow is forecast to slowly return ahead of a developing trough over portions of the western US Tuesday. As the shortwave ridge weakens and slides eastward, a stronger surface low is expected to develop over portions of southeastern CO. Strengthening surface pressure gradients should aid in increasing surface winds and downslope flow over central and eastern NM. With a warm and dry air mass in place, elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible. ...Portions of central and eastern New Mexico... As the ridge shifts eastward, stronger southwesterly flow will begin to return ahead of the trough over the Desert Southwest. West of the lee low, downslope surface pressure gradients will enhance southwest surface winds to near 15-20 mph during the afternoon. With several preceding days of very poor overnight humidity recoveries, warm and dry conditions are expected during the afternoon. Diurnal RH minimums of 5-15% are possible along with the gusty surface winds. The favorable meteorological conditions atop dry area fuels will support elevated fire-weather conditions through much of the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon May 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with an attendant severe hail/wind threat are expected across parts of the southern Plains and the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday afternoon. A more isolated severe threat will likely emerge across parts of the central and northern High Plains. ...Synopsis... The upper-level flow regime is expected to gradually amplify over the next 48 hours across the CONUS with ridging over the central Plains and the deepening of the upper low currently along the West Coast. At the surface, seasonal moisture will remain in place across the southern CONUS with modest moisture return into the central Plains amid weak cyclogenesis over the TX Panhandle. The potential for organized convection will likely be greatest over the southern Plains and High Plains, as well as across the Mid-Atlantic, where the overlap of strong buoyancy, adequate deep-layer shear, and forcing for ascent appears most probable. ...OK/KS... A weak cold front currently over the central Plains is forecast to retreat northward as a diffuse warm front as a weak surface low organizes over the TX/OK Panhandle region. Along and south of this boundary, rich low-level moisture in the form of mid to upper 60s dewpoints will be common and slowly spread west/northwest into parts of southwest KS. This may result in some sharpening of the dryline, and combined with mid-level lapse rates on the order of 8 C/km, will promote strong instability upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE across the warm sector. Despite the favorable instability, upper-level ridging will mute broad-scale ascent and limit deep-layer shear from southern KS southward. A zone of favorable overlap of strong buoyancy and adequate (around 30 knots of effective bulk shear) appears most likely from the dryline/warm front intersection near the surface low eastward along the frontal zone into southern KS/northern OK. While a tornado or two is possible given favorable low-level helicity along the frontal zone and in the vicinity of the surface low, uncertainty regarding storm coverage and mode suggests large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazard, especially with initially discrete cells. Further south along the dryline, strong diurnal heating will quickly erode surface-based inhibition. Weak forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty onto storm coverage, and this is reflected in recent CAM guidance with little to no convective signal. However, a deep, well-mixed boundary layer over west TX suggest any convection that does develop may feature strong/severe downburst winds. This potential appears most probable across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX where orographically-initiated convection may develop. ...Central/Northern High Plains... Isolated convection will likely develop within a weak upslope flow regime along the central to northern High Plains. Marginal moisture return should be adequate to allow discrete cells and/or clusters to propagate eastward into the late evening hours. Stronger deep-layer flow will likely support storm longevity and organization, but MLCAPE values will likely be limited to 500-1000 J/kg and may modulate storm intensity to some degree. Regardless, an severe hail/wind risk appears probable. ...Mid-Atlantic... A diffuse stationary frontal boundary draped across the OH River Valley will likely be convectively reinforced and shunted southward over the next 12-24 hours. This boundary should be zonally draped across the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday morning. Daytime heating, combined with low to mid-60s dewpoints, should allow low-level parcels to approach their convective temperatures in the low to mid-80s with minimal inhibition and around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE by early afternoon. Weak ascent associated with a mid-level perturbation should support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. Effective shear vectors near 30 knots oriented along the frontal zone may foster upscale growth from initially discrete cells capable of marginally severe hail to clusters with an increasing damaging wind risk through late afternoon. ..Moore/Jewell.. 05/08/2023 Read more

The production outlook for the U.S. winter wheat crop is the lowest in recent years, with USDA records dating to 1986. Crops in parts of the Great Plains were in especially bad condition due to drought. One wheat grower in southwest Kansas expects to abandon 85% of the crop, making this his farm’s smallest harvest as the crop barely emerged. U.S. wheat stocks are projected to drop to a nine-year low by June. A smaller crop could lead to higher bread and staple food prices. Successful Farming (Des Moines, Iowa), May 8, 2023 Winter wheat production in Oklahoma was mixed this year. Some fields looked good, while other fields did not even have a stand. Some of the wheat may be cut for hay as the demand for feed supplies was high, due to so many drought-damaged pastures. A Kansas wheat grower abandoned 4,000 acres, due to drought, because the crop never emerged. At least one South Dakota wheat grower has opted to plant corn since his winter wheat failed. RFD TV (Nashville, Tenn.), May 5, 2023