SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 178

2 years 3 months ago
WW 178 SEVERE TSTM TX 281830Z - 290100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 178 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A few severe storms, primarily left-moving supercells, will be possible this afternoon across north Texas. The strongest storms will be capable of producing isolated large hail of 1 to 2 inches in diameter and isolated damaging gusts of 60 to 70 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north of Dallas TX to 45 miles south of Fort Worth TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 177... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Thompson Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 177 Status Reports

2 years 3 months ago
WW 0177 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 177 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW TPL TO 35 NW TPL TO 20 E SEP. ..LYONS..04/28/23 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 177 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC027-035-145-161-217-289-293-309-319-331-395-282240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BOSQUE FALLS FREESTONE HILL LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MASON MILAM ROBERTSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 177

2 years 3 months ago
WW 177 TORNADO TX 281815Z - 290100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 177 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 115 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 115 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely SUMMARY...Supercell development is expected this afternoon across central Texas, and storms will expand in coverage and spread east-southeastward through this evening. Very large hail to 3 inches in diameter and a couple of tornadoes will be possible with the initial supercell cluster, while the threat for damaging winds (up to 75 mph) will increase as storms grow into more of a line by late afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Waco TX to 15 miles southwest of Temple TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28020. ...Thompson Read more

SPC Apr 28, 2023 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 years 3 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Destructive hail (some at least as large as baseballs), thunderstorm gusts potentially exceeding 75 mph, and a couple tornadoes remain possible this afternoon and evening from north Texas southwestward into south-central Texas. ...20Z Update... The northern extent of the Enhanced Risk (across north TX) has been trimmed with this update. Intense convection, including a supercell, has recently developed along/just south of the surface triple point in central TX. Although a left-splitting supercell or two remains possible, it appears that the greater concentration of severe hail/wind will remain generally south of the Metroplex. Very large hail and a tornado remain a possibility with any supercell that can remain at least semi-discrete. The damaging wind threat will increase as convection eventually grows upscale into an MCS later this afternoon and evening, with some potential for isolated significant severe gusts. Otherwise, only minor changes have been made to the Marginal Risk across NC, based on recent surface observations showing a stalled wedge front draped east-west across much of the state. This area may have a somewhat better chance for an organized thunderstorm or two given a favorable combination of instability and deep-layer shear. But, confidence in any more than an isolated severe hail/wind threat remains too low to increase severe probabilities. See Mesoscale Discussion 649 for more information on the short-term threat for isolated wind/hail across the central Appalachians and vicinity, and Mesoscale Discussion 650 for more details regarding the isolated severe threat across NC. ..Gleason.. 04/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023/ ...TX this afternoon through tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over the southern High Plains will continue eastward over central TX this afternoon/evening, as an accompanying cold front likewise surges southeastward. Low-level moisture return is underway from south into central and north TX, with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 65-70 F range from Waco southward as of 16z. Strong surface heating/mixing is expected along the western fringe of the returning moisture, near a remnant lee trough/dryline across the Edwards Plateau, prior to being overtaken by the cold front later this afternoon/evening. The surface heating, in combination with strengthening forcing for ascent along the cold front (with the approach of the midlevel trough) will support thunderstorm development by mid afternoon across central/north TX. The increasing low-level moisture and surface heating, beneath midlevel lapse rates in excess of 8 C/km, will result in large buoyancy in the warm sector this afternoon (MLCAPE greater than 2500 J/kg). Thermodynamic profiles will favor both strong updrafts and strong downdrafts, while wind profiles will become favorable for supercells as hodographs lengthen. There will be a window of opportunity for a couple of tornadoes from about 20-22z near the path of the surface wave along the cold front, where the stronger low-level shear/hodograph curvature will coincide with the north edge of the richer low-level moisture (a little south to southwest of the DFW area). The initial convection will likely be supercells with the aforementioned tornado potential, as well as very large hail near 3 inches in diameter. Forcing for ascent along the front will support upscale growth into more linear convection by this evening into central/south central TX. Isolated very large hail will be possible with any semi-discrete supercells, along with an increase in the potential for damaging outflow gusts (a few of which could reach or exceed 75 mph). The storms will continue southeastward overnight to the middle and lower TX coasts. ...OH Valley to the Southeast this afternoon... The trailing influence of a midlevel trough will move over OH/WV this afternoon, along with weak surface reflections. A few cloud breaks will allow modest surface heating, and destabilization could become sufficient for isolated strong storms with some hail/wind this afternoon. The trailing (southeast) influence of the midlevel trough, and a slow-moving wedge front, could focus a few strong storms this afternoon across NC. Farther south, the remnants of an overnight MCS are moving over central FL. Lingering clouds have slow surface heating in central FL, and the better chances for isolated strong storms with wind/hail will be in the zones of stronger surface heating across southeast FL with the sea breeze, and closer to the FL/GA border. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 years 3 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z The current D2 Fire Outlook is on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 04/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of the central Plains Saturday afternoon. A deepening low over the upper MS Valley will strengthen the regional pressure gradient over much of the central and northern Plains. Northerly winds between 15 to 25 mph are expected, with gusts as high as 35-40 mph possible. Diurnal warming will allow for RH reductions into the 20-30% range from SD into NE and northern KS. One mitigating factor is fuel status, as recent analyses suggest 10-hour dead-fuel moisture values are generally above 15% after recent rainfall. Consequently, the Elevated risk area is confined to locations where the potential for periods of critical conditions best overlaps with QPE minimums. However, refinements to this risk area are possible as fine fuels respond to dry conditions over the next 24 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Apr 28, 2023 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 years 3 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur across parts of the Southeast Saturday into Saturday night, with the greatest threat currently expected across much of north/central Florida into southern Georgia. A few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds will be the primary threats, with some large hail also possible. ...Southeast... An MCS should be well established over the western Gulf of Mexico at the start of the period Saturday morning. Most guidance indicates this bowing complex will maintain its structure and integrity through the day as it moves quickly eastward. By late Saturday afternoon into early evening, the MCS should impact much of the FL Panhandle into the northern/central FL Peninsula. Ahead of the approaching MCS, low-level moisture will attempt to return northward across FL into southern GA, as an upper trough pivots quickly eastward from the southern Plains over the lower MS Valley and Southeast. Moderate instability should be in place along/south of an effective marine warm front, with strong deep-layer shear present across much of the warm sector as mid/upper-level winds increase with the approaching upper trough. Damaging winds should be the main threat with the MCS as it moves over north/central FL and southern GA, with a couple of embedded tornadoes also possible. With cool temperatures aloft and somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates, large hail may also occur with initially semi-discrete convection that develops along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. There is some potential for a second round of severe thunderstorms, including supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, late Saturday evening and continuing through the night. This threat will be tied to the ejecting upper wave and rapidly strengthening southerly winds associated with a 40-50+ kt low-level jet. If the airmass behind the MCS can recover quickly enough, then both low-level and deep-layer shear appear quite favorable for supercells along/ahead of a cold front. The main uncertainty is whether sufficient instability will materialize to realize this potential severe threat. Given the possibility for multiple rounds of severe convection, and trends in 12Z guidance, have expanded the Slight Risk across much of north/central FL and more of southern GA to account for both the MCS track and potential evening/overnight supercells. ..Gleason.. 04/28/2023 Read more

Water restrictions in Norton, Kansas

2 years 3 months ago
The City of Norton is enacting water restrictions early on Friday, April 28 rather than waiting until Memorial Day. The city is adopting the order due to “circumstances and conditions adversely affecting the normal usage of water which include the scheduled maintenance of the water tower and the extreme drought conditions affecting Northwest Kansas.” KFDI 101.3 FM (Wichita, Kan.), April 27, 2023

SPC MD 641

2 years 3 months ago
MD 0641 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...EAST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0641 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023 Areas affected...Northern Mississippi...east-central Arkansas...far southwest Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 272050Z - 272245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few storms may develop near the shortwave trough in Arkansas and ahead of the cold front in Mississippi. Large hail and isolated damaging winds are the primary threats. A watch may be needed should convective trends warrant. DISCUSSION...Objective mesoanalysis shows increasing boundary-layer destabilization from east-central Arkansas into northern Mississippi. As clouds have dissipated through the day, low-levels have recovered to some degree. Visible satellite indicates increasing cumulus across central Mississippi. Closer to the upper-level trough in Arkansas, additional convection has also recently developed. Shear should increase as the upper trough moves east. Effective shear of 45-60 kts will favor organized storms. Long hodographs and cold mid-level temperatures (around -14 to -17 C) suggest large hail potential. Damaging wind gusts may also occur, but low-level lapse rates should keep that threat more isolated. The highest confidence in storm development/persistence will be near the shortwave trough. It is less certain how many storms will form in central/northern Mississippi, but those storms would have more potential for large hail. Trends will be monitored for a possible watch. ..Wendt/Hart.. 04/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 34789268 35169140 35279040 34968938 34368816 33508806 33108832 33018942 33629096 33979206 34109252 34789268 Read more

SPC MD 640

2 years 3 months ago
MD 0640 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174... FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN FL PANHANDLE...FAR SOUTHWEST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0640 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023 Areas affected...central and eastern FL Panhandle...far southwest GA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174... Valid 272034Z - 272200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado will remain possible through 5-6pm EDT. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a north-northeast to south-southwest oriented band of a thunderstorms move east across the northeast Gulf of Mexico and central portions of the FL Panhandle late this afternoon. Surface streamline analysis indicates weak easterly flow across the central portion of the FL Panhandle during the past couple of hours. Surface conditions ahead of the band of storms have temperatures in the lower to mid 70s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. A long-lived supercell has continued east-northeast across the Panhandle with all hazards being exhibited via radar during the past couple of hours. The band of storms and associated convection on its leading edge is beginning to encroach on the supercell with the potential for a tornado becoming more uncertain with time. Nonetheless, a pronounced surge in the line supported by strong deep-layer shear (effective shear 60 kt) will favor swaths of damaging gusts as a weak mesolow begins to develop centered with thunderstorms near Washington/Calhoun counties. Complex storm-scale interactions may continue to occur with both damaging gusts and perhaps a brief mesovortex tornado possible as as the band moves east during the next 1-2 hours. ..Smith.. 04/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE... LAT...LON 30598538 30928419 30858382 30648374 30148381 29578491 29718536 30058561 30598538 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174 Status Reports

2 years 3 months ago
WW 0174 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 174 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW PFN TO 10 WSW PFN TO 35 W MAI TO 15 ESE DHN. ..LYONS..04/27/23 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 174 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC069-272140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOUSTON FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-063-065-067-073-077-079-123-129-133- 272140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN DIXIE FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF JACKSON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA WASHINGTON GAC027-087-131-185-253-275-272140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 175 Status Reports

2 years 3 months ago
WW 0175 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 175 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..04/27/23 ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 175 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-009-019-023-031-035-041-047-061-069-083-085-089- 093-095-097-107-109-111-117-121-125-127-272140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD BREVARD CLAY COLUMBIA DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HAMILTON INDIAN RIVER LAKE MARION MARTIN NASSAU OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA PUTNAM ST. JOHNS ST. LUCIE SEMINOLE SUWANNEE UNION VOLUSIA GAC025-029-039-049-051-065-101-127-179-183-191-229-299-305- 272140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY BRYAN CAMDEN CHARLTON CHATHAM CLINCH ECHOLS GLYNN LIBERTY Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174

2 years 3 months ago
WW 174 SEVERE TSTM AL FL GA CW 271535Z - 272300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 174 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Alabama Florida Panhandle Southwest Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 1135 AM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to move from west to east across the northeast Gulf Coast region through the afternoon. A few supercell thunderstorms are possible with large hail and damaging gusts the primary threats. A band of thunderstorms is forecast to eventually push east through the area this afternoon with an accompanying risk for severe. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Panama City FL to 40 miles north of Cross City FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 173... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Smith Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 175

2 years 3 months ago
WW 175 SEVERE TSTM FL GA CW 271845Z - 280200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 175 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Florida Peninsula Southeast Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify this afternoon from southeast Georgia into eastern Florida. Warm, humid conditions combined with favorable winds aloft will pose a risk of a few severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles northeast of Waycross GA to 55 miles south of Vero Beach FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 174... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Hart Read more

SPC Apr 27, 2023 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 years 3 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF FLORIDA... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Severe storms remain possible today over portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley as well as much of central and northern Florida. Damaging gusts, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been cleared from deep-south TX since the cold front has pushed through the area, reducing convective potential. Severe probabilities have also been trimmed across portions of the Gulf Coast where an MCS have moved through and overturned/stabilized the airmass enough to reduce the severe threat. Otherwise, severe potential remains with the ongoing MCS moving across the central FL Panhandle, and with storms that can form on a sea-breeze boundary across northeast parts of the FL Peninsula. Damaging gusts, large hail, and a tornado or two remain possible. Severe potential remains with storms that can develop closer to the surface low over the Lower MS Valley, with damaging gusts and large hail the main threats. Lastly, a severe gust or two may accompany low-topped convection behind the cold front across the central Rockies/central High Plains, before nocturnal cooling reduces the steep low-level lapse rates and associated severe gust potential. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023/ ...MS/AL/FL/GA... a large area of thunderstorms has been tracking eastward across the central Gulf Coast region this morning. The overall severe threat has diminished through the morning, but may reinvigorate this afternoon with slow daytime heating and moisture advection as storms will spread into southwest GA and the eastern FL Panhandle (WW 174). Forecast soundings and local VAD profiles show sufficient deep-layer shear for a few supercells capable of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado or two through the afternoon. ...SE GA/FL... Strong daytime heating is occurring from southeast GA into the eastern FL Peninsula, where dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid-afternoon over the central Peninsula, as well as farther north with the approach of the convection over AL and the Panhandle. The environment in this area will be somewhat similar to yesterday, with a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms should track offshore by mid-evening, ending the severe threat. ...AR/MS/TN/AL... Skies are beginning to slowly clear over parts of AR, beneath a cold upper low. This trend will continue through the afternoon, leading to a region of moderate CAPE and steep mid-level lapse rates. Most CAM solutions agree on the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms from central AR eastward into west TN and northern MS. This region will be in the exit region of a mid-level jet max, and in an area of sufficient vertical shear for organized updrafts. The strongest cells will be capable of large hail for few hours this afternoon and evening. ...South TX... A cold front is sagging southward across Deep South TX today. Low-level winds ahead of the front have shifted to northerly, reducing frontal convergence and likely limiting the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms. Nevertheless, an isolated storm or two remains possible. Any storms that form would be in a very moist and unstable environment, with sufficient flow aloft to promote supercell structures. Large to very large hail would be possible. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 years 3 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made to the Critical area based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For details on the Day 2/Friday fire-weather threat, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 04/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... A sharp, positively tilted mid-level trough will move south across the Rockies during the day on Friday. A surface low will move south ahead of this mid-level wave. In the wake of this trough, a strong area of surface high pressure will build in across the Rockies. This will result in a tight pressure gradient across the southern Rockies and Southwest, resulting in strong northerly winds. In addition to this surface pressure gradient, a deeply mixed airmass will be present across western New Mexico and eastern Arizona. This will also lead to strengthening surface wind speeds in a region with single-digit relative humidity. Therefore, critical fire weather conditions are expected across southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico where there is the best overlap between strong winds, low relative humidity, and dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Apr 27, 2023 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 years 3 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms are forecast to produce damaging hail from late afternoon through evening from north-central Texas to the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley. Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur over parts of the Southeast into the central Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper trough will progress southward into the Southern Plains from the central Rockies as a mid-level impulse traverses the Southeast and Carolina Piedmont region tomorrow/Friday. The low-level mass response in both of these regions will be surface low development, with enhanced low-level convergence and moisture advection supporting an increase in convective coverage. The increase in boundary layer flow/shear in both regions will also support storm organization, with strong to severe storm development likely, especially in north-central to south-central TX. ...Southern Plains... On Friday afternoon, low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints will advect northward across TX, from the Gulf Coast to the Red River. Up to 9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread the low-level moisture plume by afternoon peak heating, contributing to 2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. Around this time, a surface cold front is expected to merge with a dryline progressing eastward from the TX Hill Country, resulting in convective initiation and rapid intensification. Forecast soundings depict elongated hodographs with modest low-level curvature ahead of the cold front/dryline intersection, suggesting that supercells will be the initial mode before storm mergers result in linear segments or even a possible MCS. The elongated hodographs and breadth of buoyancy above the freezing level suggest that large hail will be the primary threat with supercells, with a couple of instances of 3+ inch stones possible. A couple of tornadoes also cannot be ruled out with some of the more dominant, longer-lasting supercells. However, the predominant severe threat should be severe gusts once storm/cold pool mergers take place. ...Florida to the Carolina Piedmont... A surface low will deepen over OH with the passage of a mid-level perturbation, supporting modest low-level moisture return beneath 6.5-7.5 C/km low to mid-level lapse rates from the eastern OH Valley, to the Carolina Piedmont and the Florida Peninsula region. Surface dewpoints are expected to range from the mid 50s in the central Appalachians to near 70 F across southern GA and FL, contributing to MLCAPE of 750 J/kg in the eastern OH Valley to over 1500 J/kg across the Southeast. In combination with this buoyancy, southerly low-level flow overspread by 40+ kts of 500 mb westerly winds will contribute to elongated hodographs. These hodographs, along with the aforementioned buoyancy, will support organized thunderstorm development, with a couple of damaging gusts and large hail the main threats. ..Squitieri.. 04/27/2023 Read more

Water conservation urged in South Florida

2 years 3 months ago
Water conservation is recommended in South Florida as rainfall for the Treasure Coast and Palm Beach County has been about 25% of normal since January. WFLX-TV FOX 29 West Palm Beach (Fla.), April 10, 2023

SPC MD 624

2 years 3 months ago
MD 0624 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 168... FOR FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0624 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023 Areas affected...Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168... Valid 262033Z - 262230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for large/very-large hail remains across the Florida Peninsula. Additional storms may develop in western/central Florida through the remainder of the afternoon. DISCUSSION...The strongest storms this afternoon have been near the Atlantic coast. Supercell storms in that area have remained east of the sea breeze boundary. Large hail and damaging winds have been reported with this activity over the last 2 hours. Convection along the Gulf breeze boundary continues to build. Storms have recently initiated east of Sarasota. Additional storms are possible through the afternoon, particularly if the sea breezes interact with one another. Shear and mid-level lapse rates will remain sufficient to support a large to very-large (2+ in.) hail threat along with isolated damaging winds. ..Wendt.. 04/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 27338213 28358253 29488232 29578142 28678060 27858033 27378011 26818011 26078016 25648032 25528049 25638093 26668165 26618158 27338213 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168 Status Reports

2 years 3 months ago
WW 0168 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 168 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..04/26/23 ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...MFL...TBW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 168 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-009-011-027-035-043-049-051-055-061-069-083-085-086-093- 095-097-099-105-107-111-117-119-127-262140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BREVARD BROWARD DESOTO FLAGLER GLADES HARDEE HENDRY HIGHLANDS INDIAN RIVER LAKE MARION MARTIN MIAMI-DADE OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA PALM BEACH POLK PUTNAM ST. LUCIE SEMINOLE SUMTER VOLUSIA AMZ550-552-555-610-630-650-651-262140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168

2 years 3 months ago
WW 168 SEVERE TSTM FL CW 261810Z - 270100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 168 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of The Florida Peninsula Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon, while posing a threat for very large hail and damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east of Gainesville FL to 10 miles south southwest of Miami FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29020. ...Gleason/Hart Read more