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Houston has moved from stage two to stage one of its drought contingency plan, meaning that water restrictions were no longer mandatory. Water conservation was again voluntary. Click2Houston (Texas), Dec 15, 2023 Stage two drought restrictions, which began on Aug. 27, remain in effect for Houston water customers. CW39 Houston (Texas), Oct 19, 2023

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe threat will increase across the Florida Peninsula and Keys, primarily during the latter half of the period. Damaging winds along with some tornado threat are the main risks. ...Florida... Upper trough currently located over the eastern Plains is forecast to advance into the mid MS Valley by late afternoon. As the trough shifts east, midlevel speed max will dig across TX into the western Gulf basin where it will kick a low-latitude short-wave trough northeast toward the FL Peninsula. This low-latitude short wave will be primarily responsible for inducing surface cyclogenesis which will deepen as it tracks across the northern FL Peninsula after midnight. Latest NAM is particularly aggressive with the 850mb response to this feature. LLJ is forecast to increase markedly this evening across the Peninsula, with speeds in excess of 80kt immediately ahead of the surface low track. Intense low-level warm advection will contribute to convection within an environment characterized by poor lapse rates, but seasonally high PW values. Forecast soundings suggest surface-based parcels could yield around 1000 J/kg across southern portions of the Peninsula by late evening where around 70F dew points are expected. Destabilization will be delayed farther north until after midnight, but adequate buoyancy should develop to near the GA border for surface-based updrafts. Very strong deep-layer shear and SRH favor supercells and tornadoes. Have expanded severe probabilities farther north to account for boundary-layer destabilization very late in the period, immediately ahead of the surface low. Damaging winds are also a threat with this activity. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/16/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe threat will increase across the Florida Peninsula and Keys, primarily during the latter half of the period. Damaging winds along with some tornado threat are the main risks. ...Florida... Upper trough currently located over the eastern Plains is forecast to advance into the mid MS Valley by late afternoon. As the trough shifts east, midlevel speed max will dig across TX into the western Gulf basin where it will kick a low-latitude short-wave trough northeast toward the FL Peninsula. This low-latitude short wave will be primarily responsible for inducing surface cyclogenesis which will deepen as it tracks across the northern FL Peninsula after midnight. Latest NAM is particularly aggressive with the 850mb response to this feature. LLJ is forecast to increase markedly this evening across the Peninsula, with speeds in excess of 80kt immediately ahead of the surface low track. Intense low-level warm advection will contribute to convection within an environment characterized by poor lapse rates, but seasonally high PW values. Forecast soundings suggest surface-based parcels could yield around 1000 J/kg across southern portions of the Peninsula by late evening where around 70F dew points are expected. Destabilization will be delayed farther north until after midnight, but adequate buoyancy should develop to near the GA border for surface-based updrafts. Very strong deep-layer shear and SRH favor supercells and tornadoes. Have expanded severe probabilities farther north to account for boundary-layer destabilization very late in the period, immediately ahead of the surface low. Damaging winds are also a threat with this activity. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/16/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe threat will increase across the Florida Peninsula and Keys, primarily during the latter half of the period. Damaging winds along with some tornado threat are the main risks. ...Florida... Upper trough currently located over the eastern Plains is forecast to advance into the mid MS Valley by late afternoon. As the trough shifts east, midlevel speed max will dig across TX into the western Gulf basin where it will kick a low-latitude short-wave trough northeast toward the FL Peninsula. This low-latitude short wave will be primarily responsible for inducing surface cyclogenesis which will deepen as it tracks across the northern FL Peninsula after midnight. Latest NAM is particularly aggressive with the 850mb response to this feature. LLJ is forecast to increase markedly this evening across the Peninsula, with speeds in excess of 80kt immediately ahead of the surface low track. Intense low-level warm advection will contribute to convection within an environment characterized by poor lapse rates, but seasonally high PW values. Forecast soundings suggest surface-based parcels could yield around 1000 J/kg across southern portions of the Peninsula by late evening where around 70F dew points are expected. Destabilization will be delayed farther north until after midnight, but adequate buoyancy should develop to near the GA border for surface-based updrafts. Very strong deep-layer shear and SRH favor supercells and tornadoes. Have expanded severe probabilities farther north to account for boundary-layer destabilization very late in the period, immediately ahead of the surface low. Damaging winds are also a threat with this activity. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/16/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe threat will increase across the Florida Peninsula and Keys, primarily during the latter half of the period. Damaging winds along with some tornado threat are the main risks. ...Florida... Upper trough currently located over the eastern Plains is forecast to advance into the mid MS Valley by late afternoon. As the trough shifts east, midlevel speed max will dig across TX into the western Gulf basin where it will kick a low-latitude short-wave trough northeast toward the FL Peninsula. This low-latitude short wave will be primarily responsible for inducing surface cyclogenesis which will deepen as it tracks across the northern FL Peninsula after midnight. Latest NAM is particularly aggressive with the 850mb response to this feature. LLJ is forecast to increase markedly this evening across the Peninsula, with speeds in excess of 80kt immediately ahead of the surface low track. Intense low-level warm advection will contribute to convection within an environment characterized by poor lapse rates, but seasonally high PW values. Forecast soundings suggest surface-based parcels could yield around 1000 J/kg across southern portions of the Peninsula by late evening where around 70F dew points are expected. Destabilization will be delayed farther north until after midnight, but adequate buoyancy should develop to near the GA border for surface-based updrafts. Very strong deep-layer shear and SRH favor supercells and tornadoes. Have expanded severe probabilities farther north to account for boundary-layer destabilization very late in the period, immediately ahead of the surface low. Damaging winds are also a threat with this activity. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms remains negligible across the U.S. tonight. ...01z Update... Plains upper trough will shift slowly east overnight with the primary zone of high-level diffluence expected to focus across the lower MS Valley and lower latitudes. Large-scale forcing should encourage surface cyclogenesis well offshore -- likely over the southern Gulf basin. Resultant low-level convergence over southeast TX/LA will be somewhat negated by this offshore development. Early-evening radar data suggests a few stronger showers are noted along the advancing cold front west of Victoria TX, but otherwise most convection remains quite shallow and lightning-free. While buoyancy will remain weak through sunrise, forecast soundings suggest some threat for lightning despite poor lapse rates/buoyancy. Lightning may also accompany deeper updrafts across extreme south FL, but more likely over the Straits. ..Darrow.. 12/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms remains negligible across the U.S. tonight. ...01z Update... Plains upper trough will shift slowly east overnight with the primary zone of high-level diffluence expected to focus across the lower MS Valley and lower latitudes. Large-scale forcing should encourage surface cyclogenesis well offshore -- likely over the southern Gulf basin. Resultant low-level convergence over southeast TX/LA will be somewhat negated by this offshore development. Early-evening radar data suggests a few stronger showers are noted along the advancing cold front west of Victoria TX, but otherwise most convection remains quite shallow and lightning-free. While buoyancy will remain weak through sunrise, forecast soundings suggest some threat for lightning despite poor lapse rates/buoyancy. Lightning may also accompany deeper updrafts across extreme south FL, but more likely over the Straits. ..Darrow.. 12/16/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms remains negligible across the U.S. tonight. ...01z Update... Plains upper trough will shift slowly east overnight with the primary zone of high-level diffluence expected to focus across the lower MS Valley and lower latitudes. Large-scale forcing should encourage surface cyclogenesis well offshore -- likely over the southern Gulf basin. Resultant low-level convergence over southeast TX/LA will be somewhat negated by this offshore development. Early-evening radar data suggests a few stronger showers are noted along the advancing cold front west of Victoria TX, but otherwise most convection remains quite shallow and lightning-free. While buoyancy will remain weak through sunrise, forecast soundings suggest some threat for lightning despite poor lapse rates/buoyancy. Lightning may also accompany deeper updrafts across extreme south FL, but more likely over the Straits. ..Darrow.. 12/16/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 15 22:26:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Dec 15 22:26:01 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Amplified mid-level flow is expected over the CONUS through the weekend and into early next week. Broad troughing over the eastern US will allow for cooler and wetter conditions as a strong coastal storms develops. To the west, a Pacific trough will quickly deepen off the coast before cutting off and persisting through midweek next week. Broad strong southwesterly flow aloft will spread inland bringing widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures to much of the West Coast. Transient ridging over the central US will keep temperatures abnormally warm, but winds should remain light. With the active and amplified weather pattern expected to continue into mid to late week, widespread precipitation appears likely over much of the CONUS. Little in the way of dry and windy conditions are expected, suggesting fire-weather concerns are limited. ..Lyons.. 12/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Amplified mid-level flow is expected over the CONUS through the weekend and into early next week. Broad troughing over the eastern US will allow for cooler and wetter conditions as a strong coastal storms develops. To the west, a Pacific trough will quickly deepen off the coast before cutting off and persisting through midweek next week. Broad strong southwesterly flow aloft will spread inland bringing widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures to much of the West Coast. Transient ridging over the central US will keep temperatures abnormally warm, but winds should remain light. With the active and amplified weather pattern expected to continue into mid to late week, widespread precipitation appears likely over much of the CONUS. Little in the way of dry and windy conditions are expected, suggesting fire-weather concerns are limited. ..Lyons.. 12/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Amplified mid-level flow is expected over the CONUS through the weekend and into early next week. Broad troughing over the eastern US will allow for cooler and wetter conditions as a strong coastal storms develops. To the west, a Pacific trough will quickly deepen off the coast before cutting off and persisting through midweek next week. Broad strong southwesterly flow aloft will spread inland bringing widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures to much of the West Coast. Transient ridging over the central US will keep temperatures abnormally warm, but winds should remain light. With the active and amplified weather pattern expected to continue into mid to late week, widespread precipitation appears likely over much of the CONUS. Little in the way of dry and windy conditions are expected, suggesting fire-weather concerns are limited. ..Lyons.. 12/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Amplified mid-level flow is expected over the CONUS through the weekend and into early next week. Broad troughing over the eastern US will allow for cooler and wetter conditions as a strong coastal storms develops. To the west, a Pacific trough will quickly deepen off the coast before cutting off and persisting through midweek next week. Broad strong southwesterly flow aloft will spread inland bringing widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures to much of the West Coast. Transient ridging over the central US will keep temperatures abnormally warm, but winds should remain light. With the active and amplified weather pattern expected to continue into mid to late week, widespread precipitation appears likely over much of the CONUS. Little in the way of dry and windy conditions are expected, suggesting fire-weather concerns are limited. ..Lyons.. 12/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... Lightning has diminished with convection embedded within a band of precipitation, ahead of mid-level troughing slowly progressing across the Great Plains. Stronger mid/upper support and colder air aloft, associated with a remnant embedded low, appear to be shifting northeast of the better low-level moisture return off the northwestern Gulf, and potential for renewed thunderstorm activity may be low in the near term. However, as the trailing flank of the mid-level troughing begins to dig across central Texas, toward the coastal plain, guidance suggests that probabilities for scattered weak thunderstorm activity may increase across parts of eastern/southeastern Texas later this evening or overnight. ..Kerr.. 12/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023/ ...Discussion... A central U.S. upper trough -- flanked by ridging over both eastern and western portions of the country -- will shift slowly eastward today and tonight. In response, very weak surface cyclogenesis will occur, with a low expected to reside over the southern Iowa/northwestern Missouri area early Saturday morning. Ahead of this low, and the associated/trailing weak surface trough/front, very little in the way of moisture return is expected, given the northeasterly/northerly cyclonic flow over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico. As such, an overall lack of buoyancy with this system suggests only occasional/sporadic lightning through tonight -- primarily across the eastern Texas/western Louisiana/Arklatex area. A few flashes may also occur across southern Florida and the Keys later in the period, within easterly low-level flow east of the weak southern Gulf surface low. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... Lightning has diminished with convection embedded within a band of precipitation, ahead of mid-level troughing slowly progressing across the Great Plains. Stronger mid/upper support and colder air aloft, associated with a remnant embedded low, appear to be shifting northeast of the better low-level moisture return off the northwestern Gulf, and potential for renewed thunderstorm activity may be low in the near term. However, as the trailing flank of the mid-level troughing begins to dig across central Texas, toward the coastal plain, guidance suggests that probabilities for scattered weak thunderstorm activity may increase across parts of eastern/southeastern Texas later this evening or overnight. ..Kerr.. 12/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023/ ...Discussion... A central U.S. upper trough -- flanked by ridging over both eastern and western portions of the country -- will shift slowly eastward today and tonight. In response, very weak surface cyclogenesis will occur, with a low expected to reside over the southern Iowa/northwestern Missouri area early Saturday morning. Ahead of this low, and the associated/trailing weak surface trough/front, very little in the way of moisture return is expected, given the northeasterly/northerly cyclonic flow over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico. As such, an overall lack of buoyancy with this system suggests only occasional/sporadic lightning through tonight -- primarily across the eastern Texas/western Louisiana/Arklatex area. A few flashes may also occur across southern Florida and the Keys later in the period, within easterly low-level flow east of the weak southern Gulf surface low. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... Lightning has diminished with convection embedded within a band of precipitation, ahead of mid-level troughing slowly progressing across the Great Plains. Stronger mid/upper support and colder air aloft, associated with a remnant embedded low, appear to be shifting northeast of the better low-level moisture return off the northwestern Gulf, and potential for renewed thunderstorm activity may be low in the near term. However, as the trailing flank of the mid-level troughing begins to dig across central Texas, toward the coastal plain, guidance suggests that probabilities for scattered weak thunderstorm activity may increase across parts of eastern/southeastern Texas later this evening or overnight. ..Kerr.. 12/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023/ ...Discussion... A central U.S. upper trough -- flanked by ridging over both eastern and western portions of the country -- will shift slowly eastward today and tonight. In response, very weak surface cyclogenesis will occur, with a low expected to reside over the southern Iowa/northwestern Missouri area early Saturday morning. Ahead of this low, and the associated/trailing weak surface trough/front, very little in the way of moisture return is expected, given the northeasterly/northerly cyclonic flow over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico. As such, an overall lack of buoyancy with this system suggests only occasional/sporadic lightning through tonight -- primarily across the eastern Texas/western Louisiana/Arklatex area. A few flashes may also occur across southern Florida and the Keys later in the period, within easterly low-level flow east of the weak southern Gulf surface low. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... Lightning has diminished with convection embedded within a band of precipitation, ahead of mid-level troughing slowly progressing across the Great Plains. Stronger mid/upper support and colder air aloft, associated with a remnant embedded low, appear to be shifting northeast of the better low-level moisture return off the northwestern Gulf, and potential for renewed thunderstorm activity may be low in the near term. However, as the trailing flank of the mid-level troughing begins to dig across central Texas, toward the coastal plain, guidance suggests that probabilities for scattered weak thunderstorm activity may increase across parts of eastern/southeastern Texas later this evening or overnight. ..Kerr.. 12/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023/ ...Discussion... A central U.S. upper trough -- flanked by ridging over both eastern and western portions of the country -- will shift slowly eastward today and tonight. In response, very weak surface cyclogenesis will occur, with a low expected to reside over the southern Iowa/northwestern Missouri area early Saturday morning. Ahead of this low, and the associated/trailing weak surface trough/front, very little in the way of moisture return is expected, given the northeasterly/northerly cyclonic flow over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico. As such, an overall lack of buoyancy with this system suggests only occasional/sporadic lightning through tonight -- primarily across the eastern Texas/western Louisiana/Arklatex area. A few flashes may also occur across southern Florida and the Keys later in the period, within easterly low-level flow east of the weak southern Gulf surface low. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... Lightning has diminished with convection embedded within a band of precipitation, ahead of mid-level troughing slowly progressing across the Great Plains. Stronger mid/upper support and colder air aloft, associated with a remnant embedded low, appear to be shifting northeast of the better low-level moisture return off the northwestern Gulf, and potential for renewed thunderstorm activity may be low in the near term. However, as the trailing flank of the mid-level troughing begins to dig across central Texas, toward the coastal plain, guidance suggests that probabilities for scattered weak thunderstorm activity may increase across parts of eastern/southeastern Texas later this evening or overnight. ..Kerr.. 12/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023/ ...Discussion... A central U.S. upper trough -- flanked by ridging over both eastern and western portions of the country -- will shift slowly eastward today and tonight. In response, very weak surface cyclogenesis will occur, with a low expected to reside over the southern Iowa/northwestern Missouri area early Saturday morning. Ahead of this low, and the associated/trailing weak surface trough/front, very little in the way of moisture return is expected, given the northeasterly/northerly cyclonic flow over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico. As such, an overall lack of buoyancy with this system suggests only occasional/sporadic lightning through tonight -- primarily across the eastern Texas/western Louisiana/Arklatex area. A few flashes may also occur across southern Florida and the Keys later in the period, within easterly low-level flow east of the weak southern Gulf surface low. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Southern CA... Locally elevated offshore winds and low humidity are possible early Saturday and into early Sunday across parts of southern CA. High pressure over the interior West will continue to support moderate offshore pressure gradients and dry conditions. A few hours of breezy winds greater than 15-20 mph and RH below 20% are possible. However, weak upper-level support and spotty fuels should keep broader concerns limited. Elsewhere across the country, seasonably cool and moist conditions will negate fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 12/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the eastern CONUS as a surface cyclone deepens across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and traverses the Florida Peninsula. Surface high pressure should overspread most of the rest of the CONUS, promoting relatively cooler surface conditions amid poorly receptive fuels, dampening significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more