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No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 22 22:31:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Dec 22 22:31:02 UTC 2023.

MD 2339 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST AZ AND FAR SOUTHEAST CA
Mesoscale Discussion 2339 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Areas affected...Southwest AZ and far southeast CA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 222031Z - 222230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Small to marginally severe hail will be possible in the more robust storms this afternoon. Severe thunderstorm watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...A trio of convective swaths persist downstream of a slow-moving mid/upper low just offshore of the CA/Baja CA border. The intermediate of these three swaths should largely impact the lower portions of the CO/Gila Rivers over the next few hours near the international border. Here, surface dew points from 54-58 F are common, with progressively lower values farther north along the CO River. Surface temperatures have largely struggled to warm beyond the 50s east of southeast CA owing to the pervasive cloudiness, but have popped into the low to mid 60s where cloud breaks have occurred. Still, MLCAPE has struggled to exceed 500 J/kg. The gradual eastward progression of the offshore low should yield slightly cooler mid-level temperatures into early evening, fostering a bit greater instability aloft. Although low-level shear is weak, VWP data from YUX highlights favorable speed shear between 3-6 km. This will conditionally support mid-level updraft rotation, especially in any cells that can remain semi-discrete. This potential alignment with the modest mid-level instability/buoyancy should support occasional hail growth with magnitudes likely peaking from 0.75-1.25 inch. ..Grams/Hart.. 12/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR... LAT...LON 32541495 32761532 33061534 33441513 33601466 33471355 32981273 32651218 32201226 31831267 32541495 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions appears low through the extended forecast period. A highly amplified midlevel trough will evolve into an expansive closed low over the central CONUS during the first half of the extended period. At the same time, a related frontal system will track eastward from the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley before occluding over the Midwest. On the backside of this system, periods of locally dry and breezy conditions are possible across portions of the southern Plains, though any fire-weather concerns will generally be mitigated by preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels. Thereafter, significant spread amongst the medium-range guidance limits overall forecast confidence, though fire-weather potential generally appears low. ..Weinman.. 12/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions appears low through the extended forecast period. A highly amplified midlevel trough will evolve into an expansive closed low over the central CONUS during the first half of the extended period. At the same time, a related frontal system will track eastward from the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley before occluding over the Midwest. On the backside of this system, periods of locally dry and breezy conditions are possible across portions of the southern Plains, though any fire-weather concerns will generally be mitigated by preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels. Thereafter, significant spread amongst the medium-range guidance limits overall forecast confidence, though fire-weather potential generally appears low. ..Weinman.. 12/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions appears low through the extended forecast period. A highly amplified midlevel trough will evolve into an expansive closed low over the central CONUS during the first half of the extended period. At the same time, a related frontal system will track eastward from the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley before occluding over the Midwest. On the backside of this system, periods of locally dry and breezy conditions are possible across portions of the southern Plains, though any fire-weather concerns will generally be mitigated by preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels. Thereafter, significant spread amongst the medium-range guidance limits overall forecast confidence, though fire-weather potential generally appears low. ..Weinman.. 12/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions appears low through the extended forecast period. A highly amplified midlevel trough will evolve into an expansive closed low over the central CONUS during the first half of the extended period. At the same time, a related frontal system will track eastward from the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley before occluding over the Midwest. On the backside of this system, periods of locally dry and breezy conditions are possible across portions of the southern Plains, though any fire-weather concerns will generally be mitigated by preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels. Thereafter, significant spread amongst the medium-range guidance limits overall forecast confidence, though fire-weather potential generally appears low. ..Weinman.. 12/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions appears low through the extended forecast period. A highly amplified midlevel trough will evolve into an expansive closed low over the central CONUS during the first half of the extended period. At the same time, a related frontal system will track eastward from the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley before occluding over the Midwest. On the backside of this system, periods of locally dry and breezy conditions are possible across portions of the southern Plains, though any fire-weather concerns will generally be mitigated by preceding rainfall atop already marginal fuels. Thereafter, significant spread amongst the medium-range guidance limits overall forecast confidence, though fire-weather potential generally appears low. ..Weinman.. 12/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated hail and gusty winds remain possible this afternoon and evening across parts of southern Arizona and vicinity. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk. The potential for isolated hail and gusty winds continues with any robust convection that can move from northwest Mexico into southern AZ this afternoon and evening. ..Gleason.. 12/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2023/ ...Southwest US... Morning water vapor loop shows a compact upper-low off the coast to the southwest of San Diego, CA. A 70+ knot mid-level jet max is rotating around the base of the low, and will overspread northwest Mexico and into southern AZ tonight. Widespread clouds and scattered precipitation will limit heating/destabilization in most parts of AZ today. However, visible imagery shows broken cloud cover over southern CA just ahead of the upper low. Steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft may result in sufficient CAPE for a few robust updrafts this afternoon. CAM guidance suggests the main area of concern is along and east of the Colorado River valley. A few storms may produce hail and gusty wind in this region this afternoon. Other strong storms may form in the low-level warm-advection zone and beneath the strong winds aloft across southeast AZ after dark. This area will see very little daytime heating or destabilization, but stronger vertical shear profiles and sufficient CAPE could encourage an organized storm or two capable of gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated hail and gusty winds remain possible this afternoon and evening across parts of southern Arizona and vicinity. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk. The potential for isolated hail and gusty winds continues with any robust convection that can move from northwest Mexico into southern AZ this afternoon and evening. ..Gleason.. 12/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2023/ ...Southwest US... Morning water vapor loop shows a compact upper-low off the coast to the southwest of San Diego, CA. A 70+ knot mid-level jet max is rotating around the base of the low, and will overspread northwest Mexico and into southern AZ tonight. Widespread clouds and scattered precipitation will limit heating/destabilization in most parts of AZ today. However, visible imagery shows broken cloud cover over southern CA just ahead of the upper low. Steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft may result in sufficient CAPE for a few robust updrafts this afternoon. CAM guidance suggests the main area of concern is along and east of the Colorado River valley. A few storms may produce hail and gusty wind in this region this afternoon. Other strong storms may form in the low-level warm-advection zone and beneath the strong winds aloft across southeast AZ after dark. This area will see very little daytime heating or destabilization, but stronger vertical shear profiles and sufficient CAPE could encourage an organized storm or two capable of gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated hail and gusty winds remain possible this afternoon and evening across parts of southern Arizona and vicinity. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk. The potential for isolated hail and gusty winds continues with any robust convection that can move from northwest Mexico into southern AZ this afternoon and evening. ..Gleason.. 12/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2023/ ...Southwest US... Morning water vapor loop shows a compact upper-low off the coast to the southwest of San Diego, CA. A 70+ knot mid-level jet max is rotating around the base of the low, and will overspread northwest Mexico and into southern AZ tonight. Widespread clouds and scattered precipitation will limit heating/destabilization in most parts of AZ today. However, visible imagery shows broken cloud cover over southern CA just ahead of the upper low. Steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft may result in sufficient CAPE for a few robust updrafts this afternoon. CAM guidance suggests the main area of concern is along and east of the Colorado River valley. A few storms may produce hail and gusty wind in this region this afternoon. Other strong storms may form in the low-level warm-advection zone and beneath the strong winds aloft across southeast AZ after dark. This area will see very little daytime heating or destabilization, but stronger vertical shear profiles and sufficient CAPE could encourage an organized storm or two capable of gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated hail and gusty winds remain possible this afternoon and evening across parts of southern Arizona and vicinity. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk. The potential for isolated hail and gusty winds continues with any robust convection that can move from northwest Mexico into southern AZ this afternoon and evening. ..Gleason.. 12/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2023/ ...Southwest US... Morning water vapor loop shows a compact upper-low off the coast to the southwest of San Diego, CA. A 70+ knot mid-level jet max is rotating around the base of the low, and will overspread northwest Mexico and into southern AZ tonight. Widespread clouds and scattered precipitation will limit heating/destabilization in most parts of AZ today. However, visible imagery shows broken cloud cover over southern CA just ahead of the upper low. Steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft may result in sufficient CAPE for a few robust updrafts this afternoon. CAM guidance suggests the main area of concern is along and east of the Colorado River valley. A few storms may produce hail and gusty wind in this region this afternoon. Other strong storms may form in the low-level warm-advection zone and beneath the strong winds aloft across southeast AZ after dark. This area will see very little daytime heating or destabilization, but stronger vertical shear profiles and sufficient CAPE could encourage an organized storm or two capable of gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated hail and gusty winds remain possible this afternoon and evening across parts of southern Arizona and vicinity. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk. The potential for isolated hail and gusty winds continues with any robust convection that can move from northwest Mexico into southern AZ this afternoon and evening. ..Gleason.. 12/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2023/ ...Southwest US... Morning water vapor loop shows a compact upper-low off the coast to the southwest of San Diego, CA. A 70+ knot mid-level jet max is rotating around the base of the low, and will overspread northwest Mexico and into southern AZ tonight. Widespread clouds and scattered precipitation will limit heating/destabilization in most parts of AZ today. However, visible imagery shows broken cloud cover over southern CA just ahead of the upper low. Steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft may result in sufficient CAPE for a few robust updrafts this afternoon. CAM guidance suggests the main area of concern is along and east of the Colorado River valley. A few storms may produce hail and gusty wind in this region this afternoon. Other strong storms may form in the low-level warm-advection zone and beneath the strong winds aloft across southeast AZ after dark. This area will see very little daytime heating or destabilization, but stronger vertical shear profiles and sufficient CAPE could encourage an organized storm or two capable of gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated hail and gusty winds remain possible this afternoon and evening across parts of southern Arizona and vicinity. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk. The potential for isolated hail and gusty winds continues with any robust convection that can move from northwest Mexico into southern AZ this afternoon and evening. ..Gleason.. 12/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2023/ ...Southwest US... Morning water vapor loop shows a compact upper-low off the coast to the southwest of San Diego, CA. A 70+ knot mid-level jet max is rotating around the base of the low, and will overspread northwest Mexico and into southern AZ tonight. Widespread clouds and scattered precipitation will limit heating/destabilization in most parts of AZ today. However, visible imagery shows broken cloud cover over southern CA just ahead of the upper low. Steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft may result in sufficient CAPE for a few robust updrafts this afternoon. CAM guidance suggests the main area of concern is along and east of the Colorado River valley. A few storms may produce hail and gusty wind in this region this afternoon. Other strong storms may form in the low-level warm-advection zone and beneath the strong winds aloft across southeast AZ after dark. This area will see very little daytime heating or destabilization, but stronger vertical shear profiles and sufficient CAPE could encourage an organized storm or two capable of gusty winds. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 12/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1157 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023/ ...Synopsis... Some breezy conditions are likely on Saturday across the central Plains and Southwest as a lee cyclone develops. However, significant moisture will also accompany this cyclone with widespread wetting rain expected. Elsewhere, fuels remain moist with cool and/or moist conditions. Therefore, fire-weather conditions remain minimal across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 12/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1157 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023/ ...Synopsis... Some breezy conditions are likely on Saturday across the central Plains and Southwest as a lee cyclone develops. However, significant moisture will also accompany this cyclone with widespread wetting rain expected. Elsewhere, fuels remain moist with cool and/or moist conditions. Therefore, fire-weather conditions remain minimal across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 12/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1157 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023/ ...Synopsis... Some breezy conditions are likely on Saturday across the central Plains and Southwest as a lee cyclone develops. However, significant moisture will also accompany this cyclone with widespread wetting rain expected. Elsewhere, fuels remain moist with cool and/or moist conditions. Therefore, fire-weather conditions remain minimal across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 12/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1157 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023/ ...Synopsis... Some breezy conditions are likely on Saturday across the central Plains and Southwest as a lee cyclone develops. However, significant moisture will also accompany this cyclone with widespread wetting rain expected. Elsewhere, fuels remain moist with cool and/or moist conditions. Therefore, fire-weather conditions remain minimal across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 12/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1157 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023/ ...Synopsis... Some breezy conditions are likely on Saturday across the central Plains and Southwest as a lee cyclone develops. However, significant moisture will also accompany this cyclone with widespread wetting rain expected. Elsewhere, fuels remain moist with cool and/or moist conditions. Therefore, fire-weather conditions remain minimal across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 12/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1157 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023/ ...Synopsis... Some breezy conditions are likely on Saturday across the central Plains and Southwest as a lee cyclone develops. However, significant moisture will also accompany this cyclone with widespread wetting rain expected. Elsewhere, fuels remain moist with cool and/or moist conditions. Therefore, fire-weather conditions remain minimal across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more