Aggregator

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight over the continental USA. ...Synopsis/Forecast... A moderately amplified but progressive split upper-flow regime will exist over much of the CONUS, particularly to the west of an elongated upper trough over the Midwest and East. The prevalence of high pressure east of the Rockies and relatively dry/stable conditions will considerably limit the potential for thunderstorms. Air mass modification will occur with early stage low-level moisture return over the western Gulf of Mexico, to the south of a southward-advancing front tonight across Texas and Louisiana. Forecast soundings suggest that thermodynamic profiles will not be particularly conducive to thunderstorms tonight, even while some convective showers may increase late tonight/early Monday toward the Texas coastal vicinity. ..Guyer.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight over the continental USA. ...Synopsis/Forecast... A moderately amplified but progressive split upper-flow regime will exist over much of the CONUS, particularly to the west of an elongated upper trough over the Midwest and East. The prevalence of high pressure east of the Rockies and relatively dry/stable conditions will considerably limit the potential for thunderstorms. Air mass modification will occur with early stage low-level moisture return over the western Gulf of Mexico, to the south of a southward-advancing front tonight across Texas and Louisiana. Forecast soundings suggest that thermodynamic profiles will not be particularly conducive to thunderstorms tonight, even while some convective showers may increase late tonight/early Monday toward the Texas coastal vicinity. ..Guyer.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight over the continental USA. ...Synopsis/Forecast... A moderately amplified but progressive split upper-flow regime will exist over much of the CONUS, particularly to the west of an elongated upper trough over the Midwest and East. The prevalence of high pressure east of the Rockies and relatively dry/stable conditions will considerably limit the potential for thunderstorms. Air mass modification will occur with early stage low-level moisture return over the western Gulf of Mexico, to the south of a southward-advancing front tonight across Texas and Louisiana. Forecast soundings suggest that thermodynamic profiles will not be particularly conducive to thunderstorms tonight, even while some convective showers may increase late tonight/early Monday toward the Texas coastal vicinity. ..Guyer.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight over the continental USA. ...Synopsis/Forecast... A moderately amplified but progressive split upper-flow regime will exist over much of the CONUS, particularly to the west of an elongated upper trough over the Midwest and East. The prevalence of high pressure east of the Rockies and relatively dry/stable conditions will considerably limit the potential for thunderstorms. Air mass modification will occur with early stage low-level moisture return over the western Gulf of Mexico, to the south of a southward-advancing front tonight across Texas and Louisiana. Forecast soundings suggest that thermodynamic profiles will not be particularly conducive to thunderstorms tonight, even while some convective showers may increase late tonight/early Monday toward the Texas coastal vicinity. ..Guyer.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight over the continental USA. ...Synopsis/Forecast... A moderately amplified but progressive split upper-flow regime will exist over much of the CONUS, particularly to the west of an elongated upper trough over the Midwest and East. The prevalence of high pressure east of the Rockies and relatively dry/stable conditions will considerably limit the potential for thunderstorms. Air mass modification will occur with early stage low-level moisture return over the western Gulf of Mexico, to the south of a southward-advancing front tonight across Texas and Louisiana. Forecast soundings suggest that thermodynamic profiles will not be particularly conducive to thunderstorms tonight, even while some convective showers may increase late tonight/early Monday toward the Texas coastal vicinity. ..Guyer.. 12/31/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A southern-stream shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move quickly eastward over the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Day 4/Wednesday into Day 5/Thursday, while eventually merging with another upper trough over the eastern states. A weak surface low should track across the northern Gulf of Mexico in this time frame. With greater low-level moisture forecast to remain confined along/south of a front draped off the Gulf Coast, severe potential over land appears low. Another upper trough/low should advance from the Southwest into the southern Plains and eventually Southeast late this week and next weekend. A large area of surface high pressure and a cold front intrusion deep into the Gulf of Mexico will likely slow the northward return of appreciable low-level moisture in this time frame. Current indications are that the greater low-level moisture should once again generally remain offshore and limit the severe potential over land. But, trends with this system will be closely monitored, as it appears stronger/more amplified than the upper trough described above. Medium-range guidance suggests that yet another upper trough may amplify over the western CONUS next weekend and move towards the southern High Plains towards the end of the forecast period (Day 8/Sunday). There may be a better chance for low-level moisture to advance inland across parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley with this system. Still, any severe potential will probably be delayed until after next weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A southern-stream shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move quickly eastward over the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Day 4/Wednesday into Day 5/Thursday, while eventually merging with another upper trough over the eastern states. A weak surface low should track across the northern Gulf of Mexico in this time frame. With greater low-level moisture forecast to remain confined along/south of a front draped off the Gulf Coast, severe potential over land appears low. Another upper trough/low should advance from the Southwest into the southern Plains and eventually Southeast late this week and next weekend. A large area of surface high pressure and a cold front intrusion deep into the Gulf of Mexico will likely slow the northward return of appreciable low-level moisture in this time frame. Current indications are that the greater low-level moisture should once again generally remain offshore and limit the severe potential over land. But, trends with this system will be closely monitored, as it appears stronger/more amplified than the upper trough described above. Medium-range guidance suggests that yet another upper trough may amplify over the western CONUS next weekend and move towards the southern High Plains towards the end of the forecast period (Day 8/Sunday). There may be a better chance for low-level moisture to advance inland across parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley with this system. Still, any severe potential will probably be delayed until after next weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A southern-stream shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move quickly eastward over the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Day 4/Wednesday into Day 5/Thursday, while eventually merging with another upper trough over the eastern states. A weak surface low should track across the northern Gulf of Mexico in this time frame. With greater low-level moisture forecast to remain confined along/south of a front draped off the Gulf Coast, severe potential over land appears low. Another upper trough/low should advance from the Southwest into the southern Plains and eventually Southeast late this week and next weekend. A large area of surface high pressure and a cold front intrusion deep into the Gulf of Mexico will likely slow the northward return of appreciable low-level moisture in this time frame. Current indications are that the greater low-level moisture should once again generally remain offshore and limit the severe potential over land. But, trends with this system will be closely monitored, as it appears stronger/more amplified than the upper trough described above. Medium-range guidance suggests that yet another upper trough may amplify over the western CONUS next weekend and move towards the southern High Plains towards the end of the forecast period (Day 8/Sunday). There may be a better chance for low-level moisture to advance inland across parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley with this system. Still, any severe potential will probably be delayed until after next weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A southern-stream shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move quickly eastward over the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Day 4/Wednesday into Day 5/Thursday, while eventually merging with another upper trough over the eastern states. A weak surface low should track across the northern Gulf of Mexico in this time frame. With greater low-level moisture forecast to remain confined along/south of a front draped off the Gulf Coast, severe potential over land appears low. Another upper trough/low should advance from the Southwest into the southern Plains and eventually Southeast late this week and next weekend. A large area of surface high pressure and a cold front intrusion deep into the Gulf of Mexico will likely slow the northward return of appreciable low-level moisture in this time frame. Current indications are that the greater low-level moisture should once again generally remain offshore and limit the severe potential over land. But, trends with this system will be closely monitored, as it appears stronger/more amplified than the upper trough described above. Medium-range guidance suggests that yet another upper trough may amplify over the western CONUS next weekend and move towards the southern High Plains towards the end of the forecast period (Day 8/Sunday). There may be a better chance for low-level moisture to advance inland across parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley with this system. Still, any severe potential will probably be delayed until after next weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A southern-stream shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move quickly eastward over the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Day 4/Wednesday into Day 5/Thursday, while eventually merging with another upper trough over the eastern states. A weak surface low should track across the northern Gulf of Mexico in this time frame. With greater low-level moisture forecast to remain confined along/south of a front draped off the Gulf Coast, severe potential over land appears low. Another upper trough/low should advance from the Southwest into the southern Plains and eventually Southeast late this week and next weekend. A large area of surface high pressure and a cold front intrusion deep into the Gulf of Mexico will likely slow the northward return of appreciable low-level moisture in this time frame. Current indications are that the greater low-level moisture should once again generally remain offshore and limit the severe potential over land. But, trends with this system will be closely monitored, as it appears stronger/more amplified than the upper trough described above. Medium-range guidance suggests that yet another upper trough may amplify over the western CONUS next weekend and move towards the southern High Plains towards the end of the forecast period (Day 8/Sunday). There may be a better chance for low-level moisture to advance inland across parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley with this system. Still, any severe potential will probably be delayed until after next weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A southern-stream shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move quickly eastward over the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Day 4/Wednesday into Day 5/Thursday, while eventually merging with another upper trough over the eastern states. A weak surface low should track across the northern Gulf of Mexico in this time frame. With greater low-level moisture forecast to remain confined along/south of a front draped off the Gulf Coast, severe potential over land appears low. Another upper trough/low should advance from the Southwest into the southern Plains and eventually Southeast late this week and next weekend. A large area of surface high pressure and a cold front intrusion deep into the Gulf of Mexico will likely slow the northward return of appreciable low-level moisture in this time frame. Current indications are that the greater low-level moisture should once again generally remain offshore and limit the severe potential over land. But, trends with this system will be closely monitored, as it appears stronger/more amplified than the upper trough described above. Medium-range guidance suggests that yet another upper trough may amplify over the western CONUS next weekend and move towards the southern High Plains towards the end of the forecast period (Day 8/Sunday). There may be a better chance for low-level moisture to advance inland across parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley with this system. Still, any severe potential will probably be delayed until after next weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A southern-stream shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move quickly eastward over the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Day 4/Wednesday into Day 5/Thursday, while eventually merging with another upper trough over the eastern states. A weak surface low should track across the northern Gulf of Mexico in this time frame. With greater low-level moisture forecast to remain confined along/south of a front draped off the Gulf Coast, severe potential over land appears low. Another upper trough/low should advance from the Southwest into the southern Plains and eventually Southeast late this week and next weekend. A large area of surface high pressure and a cold front intrusion deep into the Gulf of Mexico will likely slow the northward return of appreciable low-level moisture in this time frame. Current indications are that the greater low-level moisture should once again generally remain offshore and limit the severe potential over land. But, trends with this system will be closely monitored, as it appears stronger/more amplified than the upper trough described above. Medium-range guidance suggests that yet another upper trough may amplify over the western CONUS next weekend and move towards the southern High Plains towards the end of the forecast period (Day 8/Sunday). There may be a better chance for low-level moisture to advance inland across parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley with this system. Still, any severe potential will probably be delayed until after next weekend. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southwest Louisiana. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong southern-stream upper trough/low with associated 50-60 kt mid-level jet will progress quickly eastward across northern Mexico and the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface high pressure should remain entrenched over much of the TN Valley and Southeast through the period, which will likely stunt the northward advance of rich low-level moisture over the western Gulf of Mexico. Even so, a strengthening southerly low-level jet Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of south/central TX should aid in enough moisture to support weak MUCAPE across these areas. Isolated thunderstorms will probably develop beginning Tuesday afternoon well north of a surface front draped across deep south TX and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This convection should remain elevated through Tuesday night as it moves eastward across parts of TX and eventually southwestern LA. Minimal severe risk is evident for this region given generally 100-400 J/kg MUCAPE forecast. ..Gleason.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southwest Louisiana. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong southern-stream upper trough/low with associated 50-60 kt mid-level jet will progress quickly eastward across northern Mexico and the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface high pressure should remain entrenched over much of the TN Valley and Southeast through the period, which will likely stunt the northward advance of rich low-level moisture over the western Gulf of Mexico. Even so, a strengthening southerly low-level jet Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of south/central TX should aid in enough moisture to support weak MUCAPE across these areas. Isolated thunderstorms will probably develop beginning Tuesday afternoon well north of a surface front draped across deep south TX and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This convection should remain elevated through Tuesday night as it moves eastward across parts of TX and eventually southwestern LA. Minimal severe risk is evident for this region given generally 100-400 J/kg MUCAPE forecast. ..Gleason.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southwest Louisiana. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong southern-stream upper trough/low with associated 50-60 kt mid-level jet will progress quickly eastward across northern Mexico and the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface high pressure should remain entrenched over much of the TN Valley and Southeast through the period, which will likely stunt the northward advance of rich low-level moisture over the western Gulf of Mexico. Even so, a strengthening southerly low-level jet Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of south/central TX should aid in enough moisture to support weak MUCAPE across these areas. Isolated thunderstorms will probably develop beginning Tuesday afternoon well north of a surface front draped across deep south TX and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This convection should remain elevated through Tuesday night as it moves eastward across parts of TX and eventually southwestern LA. Minimal severe risk is evident for this region given generally 100-400 J/kg MUCAPE forecast. ..Gleason.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southwest Louisiana. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong southern-stream upper trough/low with associated 50-60 kt mid-level jet will progress quickly eastward across northern Mexico and the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface high pressure should remain entrenched over much of the TN Valley and Southeast through the period, which will likely stunt the northward advance of rich low-level moisture over the western Gulf of Mexico. Even so, a strengthening southerly low-level jet Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of south/central TX should aid in enough moisture to support weak MUCAPE across these areas. Isolated thunderstorms will probably develop beginning Tuesday afternoon well north of a surface front draped across deep south TX and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This convection should remain elevated through Tuesday night as it moves eastward across parts of TX and eventually southwestern LA. Minimal severe risk is evident for this region given generally 100-400 J/kg MUCAPE forecast. ..Gleason.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southwest Louisiana. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong southern-stream upper trough/low with associated 50-60 kt mid-level jet will progress quickly eastward across northern Mexico and the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface high pressure should remain entrenched over much of the TN Valley and Southeast through the period, which will likely stunt the northward advance of rich low-level moisture over the western Gulf of Mexico. Even so, a strengthening southerly low-level jet Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of south/central TX should aid in enough moisture to support weak MUCAPE across these areas. Isolated thunderstorms will probably develop beginning Tuesday afternoon well north of a surface front draped across deep south TX and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This convection should remain elevated through Tuesday night as it moves eastward across parts of TX and eventually southwestern LA. Minimal severe risk is evident for this region given generally 100-400 J/kg MUCAPE forecast. ..Gleason.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southwest Louisiana. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong southern-stream upper trough/low with associated 50-60 kt mid-level jet will progress quickly eastward across northern Mexico and the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface high pressure should remain entrenched over much of the TN Valley and Southeast through the period, which will likely stunt the northward advance of rich low-level moisture over the western Gulf of Mexico. Even so, a strengthening southerly low-level jet Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of south/central TX should aid in enough moisture to support weak MUCAPE across these areas. Isolated thunderstorms will probably develop beginning Tuesday afternoon well north of a surface front draped across deep south TX and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This convection should remain elevated through Tuesday night as it moves eastward across parts of TX and eventually southwestern LA. Minimal severe risk is evident for this region given generally 100-400 J/kg MUCAPE forecast. ..Gleason.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across parts of Texas and southwest Louisiana. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong southern-stream upper trough/low with associated 50-60 kt mid-level jet will progress quickly eastward across northern Mexico and the southern Plains on Tuesday. Surface high pressure should remain entrenched over much of the TN Valley and Southeast through the period, which will likely stunt the northward advance of rich low-level moisture over the western Gulf of Mexico. Even so, a strengthening southerly low-level jet Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of south/central TX should aid in enough moisture to support weak MUCAPE across these areas. Isolated thunderstorms will probably develop beginning Tuesday afternoon well north of a surface front draped across deep south TX and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This convection should remain elevated through Tuesday night as it moves eastward across parts of TX and eventually southwestern LA. Minimal severe risk is evident for this region given generally 100-400 J/kg MUCAPE forecast. ..Gleason.. 12/31/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears minimal for Monday across the country. Building surface high pressure behind a cold front (currently pushing south/southeast across the Plains and Midwest as of early Sunday morning) will settle into the southern High Plains and mid-MS River Valley. This will favor rather benign conditions with weak winds and cooler temperatures, including over parts of the southern High Plains where conditions have been warm/dry for several days. Consequently, fire weather concerns are limited at this time. ..Moore.. 12/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more