Aggregator

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Gulf Coast Region... Morning water vapory imagery shows a strong upper trough progressing eastward across TX/OK, with a 70-80 knot mid-level jet extending across south TX into the western Gulf of Mexico. A surface low associated with this upper trough and jet is positioned just south of the Upper Texas coast, where a line of strong storms extends from the coast southward into the Gulf. Low-level trajectories have been slow to back to southerly, resulting in a limited northward transport of rich moisture/instability. Onshore thunderstorm activity is in an environment of surface dewpoints only in the 50s, and should remain elevated in nature through much of the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows multiple small cellular convective elements well offshore, tracking northeastward. With continued daytime heating, a few of these cells may organized/intensify and drift toward southern LA late this afternoon and evening. Shear profiles would pose a risk of supercells, but it remains unclear how far inland the risk of surface-based convection will spread. Any storms in this regime that are surface-based would represent a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts or a tornado. A similar threat will persist overnight as the convective cluster moves eastward along the MS/AL/FL coast. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Gulf Coast Region... Morning water vapory imagery shows a strong upper trough progressing eastward across TX/OK, with a 70-80 knot mid-level jet extending across south TX into the western Gulf of Mexico. A surface low associated with this upper trough and jet is positioned just south of the Upper Texas coast, where a line of strong storms extends from the coast southward into the Gulf. Low-level trajectories have been slow to back to southerly, resulting in a limited northward transport of rich moisture/instability. Onshore thunderstorm activity is in an environment of surface dewpoints only in the 50s, and should remain elevated in nature through much of the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows multiple small cellular convective elements well offshore, tracking northeastward. With continued daytime heating, a few of these cells may organized/intensify and drift toward southern LA late this afternoon and evening. Shear profiles would pose a risk of supercells, but it remains unclear how far inland the risk of surface-based convection will spread. Any storms in this regime that are surface-based would represent a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts or a tornado. A similar threat will persist overnight as the convective cluster moves eastward along the MS/AL/FL coast. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Gulf Coast Region... Morning water vapory imagery shows a strong upper trough progressing eastward across TX/OK, with a 70-80 knot mid-level jet extending across south TX into the western Gulf of Mexico. A surface low associated with this upper trough and jet is positioned just south of the Upper Texas coast, where a line of strong storms extends from the coast southward into the Gulf. Low-level trajectories have been slow to back to southerly, resulting in a limited northward transport of rich moisture/instability. Onshore thunderstorm activity is in an environment of surface dewpoints only in the 50s, and should remain elevated in nature through much of the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows multiple small cellular convective elements well offshore, tracking northeastward. With continued daytime heating, a few of these cells may organized/intensify and drift toward southern LA late this afternoon and evening. Shear profiles would pose a risk of supercells, but it remains unclear how far inland the risk of surface-based convection will spread. Any storms in this regime that are surface-based would represent a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts or a tornado. A similar threat will persist overnight as the convective cluster moves eastward along the MS/AL/FL coast. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Gulf Coast Region... Morning water vapory imagery shows a strong upper trough progressing eastward across TX/OK, with a 70-80 knot mid-level jet extending across south TX into the western Gulf of Mexico. A surface low associated with this upper trough and jet is positioned just south of the Upper Texas coast, where a line of strong storms extends from the coast southward into the Gulf. Low-level trajectories have been slow to back to southerly, resulting in a limited northward transport of rich moisture/instability. Onshore thunderstorm activity is in an environment of surface dewpoints only in the 50s, and should remain elevated in nature through much of the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows multiple small cellular convective elements well offshore, tracking northeastward. With continued daytime heating, a few of these cells may organized/intensify and drift toward southern LA late this afternoon and evening. Shear profiles would pose a risk of supercells, but it remains unclear how far inland the risk of surface-based convection will spread. Any storms in this regime that are surface-based would represent a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts or a tornado. A similar threat will persist overnight as the convective cluster moves eastward along the MS/AL/FL coast. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Gulf Coast Region... Morning water vapory imagery shows a strong upper trough progressing eastward across TX/OK, with a 70-80 knot mid-level jet extending across south TX into the western Gulf of Mexico. A surface low associated with this upper trough and jet is positioned just south of the Upper Texas coast, where a line of strong storms extends from the coast southward into the Gulf. Low-level trajectories have been slow to back to southerly, resulting in a limited northward transport of rich moisture/instability. Onshore thunderstorm activity is in an environment of surface dewpoints only in the 50s, and should remain elevated in nature through much of the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows multiple small cellular convective elements well offshore, tracking northeastward. With continued daytime heating, a few of these cells may organized/intensify and drift toward southern LA late this afternoon and evening. Shear profiles would pose a risk of supercells, but it remains unclear how far inland the risk of surface-based convection will spread. Any storms in this regime that are surface-based would represent a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts or a tornado. A similar threat will persist overnight as the convective cluster moves eastward along the MS/AL/FL coast. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Gulf Coast Region... Morning water vapory imagery shows a strong upper trough progressing eastward across TX/OK, with a 70-80 knot mid-level jet extending across south TX into the western Gulf of Mexico. A surface low associated with this upper trough and jet is positioned just south of the Upper Texas coast, where a line of strong storms extends from the coast southward into the Gulf. Low-level trajectories have been slow to back to southerly, resulting in a limited northward transport of rich moisture/instability. Onshore thunderstorm activity is in an environment of surface dewpoints only in the 50s, and should remain elevated in nature through much of the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows multiple small cellular convective elements well offshore, tracking northeastward. With continued daytime heating, a few of these cells may organized/intensify and drift toward southern LA late this afternoon and evening. Shear profiles would pose a risk of supercells, but it remains unclear how far inland the risk of surface-based convection will spread. Any storms in this regime that are surface-based would represent a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts or a tornado. A similar threat will persist overnight as the convective cluster moves eastward along the MS/AL/FL coast. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Gulf Coast Region... Morning water vapory imagery shows a strong upper trough progressing eastward across TX/OK, with a 70-80 knot mid-level jet extending across south TX into the western Gulf of Mexico. A surface low associated with this upper trough and jet is positioned just south of the Upper Texas coast, where a line of strong storms extends from the coast southward into the Gulf. Low-level trajectories have been slow to back to southerly, resulting in a limited northward transport of rich moisture/instability. Onshore thunderstorm activity is in an environment of surface dewpoints only in the 50s, and should remain elevated in nature through much of the afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows multiple small cellular convective elements well offshore, tracking northeastward. With continued daytime heating, a few of these cells may organized/intensify and drift toward southern LA late this afternoon and evening. Shear profiles would pose a risk of supercells, but it remains unclear how far inland the risk of surface-based convection will spread. Any storms in this regime that are surface-based would represent a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts or a tornado. A similar threat will persist overnight as the convective cluster moves eastward along the MS/AL/FL coast. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns appear limited. An active southern stream shortwave trough will deepen over the southern Plains as it moves eastward. At the surface, cold high pressure will persist across the northern half of the country as a Gulf low and trailing cold front move eastward accompanying the deepening mid-level trough. Gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains and West Texas as the surface low deepens. However, widespread precipitation is expected from the southern Plains to the lower MS valley, along with cold temperatures across the northern half of the CONUS. With widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures expected to limit the availability of dry fuels over much of the country, fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns appear limited. An active southern stream shortwave trough will deepen over the southern Plains as it moves eastward. At the surface, cold high pressure will persist across the northern half of the country as a Gulf low and trailing cold front move eastward accompanying the deepening mid-level trough. Gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains and West Texas as the surface low deepens. However, widespread precipitation is expected from the southern Plains to the lower MS valley, along with cold temperatures across the northern half of the CONUS. With widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures expected to limit the availability of dry fuels over much of the country, fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns appear limited. An active southern stream shortwave trough will deepen over the southern Plains as it moves eastward. At the surface, cold high pressure will persist across the northern half of the country as a Gulf low and trailing cold front move eastward accompanying the deepening mid-level trough. Gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains and West Texas as the surface low deepens. However, widespread precipitation is expected from the southern Plains to the lower MS valley, along with cold temperatures across the northern half of the CONUS. With widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures expected to limit the availability of dry fuels over much of the country, fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns appear limited. An active southern stream shortwave trough will deepen over the southern Plains as it moves eastward. At the surface, cold high pressure will persist across the northern half of the country as a Gulf low and trailing cold front move eastward accompanying the deepening mid-level trough. Gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains and West Texas as the surface low deepens. However, widespread precipitation is expected from the southern Plains to the lower MS valley, along with cold temperatures across the northern half of the CONUS. With widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures expected to limit the availability of dry fuels over much of the country, fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns appear limited. An active southern stream shortwave trough will deepen over the southern Plains as it moves eastward. At the surface, cold high pressure will persist across the northern half of the country as a Gulf low and trailing cold front move eastward accompanying the deepening mid-level trough. Gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains and West Texas as the surface low deepens. However, widespread precipitation is expected from the southern Plains to the lower MS valley, along with cold temperatures across the northern half of the CONUS. With widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures expected to limit the availability of dry fuels over much of the country, fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns appear limited. An active southern stream shortwave trough will deepen over the southern Plains as it moves eastward. At the surface, cold high pressure will persist across the northern half of the country as a Gulf low and trailing cold front move eastward accompanying the deepening mid-level trough. Gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains and West Texas as the surface low deepens. However, widespread precipitation is expected from the southern Plains to the lower MS valley, along with cold temperatures across the northern half of the CONUS. With widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures expected to limit the availability of dry fuels over much of the country, fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns appear limited. An active southern stream shortwave trough will deepen over the southern Plains as it moves eastward. At the surface, cold high pressure will persist across the northern half of the country as a Gulf low and trailing cold front move eastward accompanying the deepening mid-level trough. Gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains and West Texas as the surface low deepens. However, widespread precipitation is expected from the southern Plains to the lower MS valley, along with cold temperatures across the northern half of the CONUS. With widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures expected to limit the availability of dry fuels over much of the country, fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will move toward the lower to middle Mississippi Valley during the day, and will lose amplitude as it reaches the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys by Saturday morning. Moderate to strong southwest winds aloft will precede this trough, and overspread much of the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will move across the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, with a surface low developing toward southern Louisiana and Mississippi by early evening. Cool conditions will exist over land ahead of this trough due to a strong surface high over the Mid-Atlantic, and this will likely inhibit destabilization aside from portions of the immediate Gulf Coast. ...Coastal Southeast TX/LA/MS/AL/FL Panhandle... A corridor of scattered thunderstorms have steadily developed in the predawn hours across the far western Gulf of Mexico toward the middle/upper Texas Coast, including some near-shore supercellular development. A very narrow zone of lower 60s F surface dewpoints have reached the upper Texas coast early this morning coincident with some of the stronger convection, but even so, this degree of moisture is not overly conducive to surface-based/more intense convection. A more unstable/moisture-rich air mass will generally continue to remain focused offshore, especially this morning, although a continued low-level moisture influx will continue to occur through the afternoon and tonight across far southern Louisiana and coastal portions of Mississippi/Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, aided by modest frontal wave development. Deep-layer/low-level shear will be quite strong, accentuated by 60-75 kt southwesterly winds around 1-2 km AGL. This will support fast-moving well-organized/rotating storms where weak destabilization does occur, which will mainly be in coastal areas of the region. A tornado and isolated damaging wind risk will exist and generally regionally transition eastward in these near-coastal areas through tonight. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will move toward the lower to middle Mississippi Valley during the day, and will lose amplitude as it reaches the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys by Saturday morning. Moderate to strong southwest winds aloft will precede this trough, and overspread much of the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will move across the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, with a surface low developing toward southern Louisiana and Mississippi by early evening. Cool conditions will exist over land ahead of this trough due to a strong surface high over the Mid-Atlantic, and this will likely inhibit destabilization aside from portions of the immediate Gulf Coast. ...Coastal Southeast TX/LA/MS/AL/FL Panhandle... A corridor of scattered thunderstorms have steadily developed in the predawn hours across the far western Gulf of Mexico toward the middle/upper Texas Coast, including some near-shore supercellular development. A very narrow zone of lower 60s F surface dewpoints have reached the upper Texas coast early this morning coincident with some of the stronger convection, but even so, this degree of moisture is not overly conducive to surface-based/more intense convection. A more unstable/moisture-rich air mass will generally continue to remain focused offshore, especially this morning, although a continued low-level moisture influx will continue to occur through the afternoon and tonight across far southern Louisiana and coastal portions of Mississippi/Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, aided by modest frontal wave development. Deep-layer/low-level shear will be quite strong, accentuated by 60-75 kt southwesterly winds around 1-2 km AGL. This will support fast-moving well-organized/rotating storms where weak destabilization does occur, which will mainly be in coastal areas of the region. A tornado and isolated damaging wind risk will exist and generally regionally transition eastward in these near-coastal areas through tonight. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will move toward the lower to middle Mississippi Valley during the day, and will lose amplitude as it reaches the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys by Saturday morning. Moderate to strong southwest winds aloft will precede this trough, and overspread much of the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will move across the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, with a surface low developing toward southern Louisiana and Mississippi by early evening. Cool conditions will exist over land ahead of this trough due to a strong surface high over the Mid-Atlantic, and this will likely inhibit destabilization aside from portions of the immediate Gulf Coast. ...Coastal Southeast TX/LA/MS/AL/FL Panhandle... A corridor of scattered thunderstorms have steadily developed in the predawn hours across the far western Gulf of Mexico toward the middle/upper Texas Coast, including some near-shore supercellular development. A very narrow zone of lower 60s F surface dewpoints have reached the upper Texas coast early this morning coincident with some of the stronger convection, but even so, this degree of moisture is not overly conducive to surface-based/more intense convection. A more unstable/moisture-rich air mass will generally continue to remain focused offshore, especially this morning, although a continued low-level moisture influx will continue to occur through the afternoon and tonight across far southern Louisiana and coastal portions of Mississippi/Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, aided by modest frontal wave development. Deep-layer/low-level shear will be quite strong, accentuated by 60-75 kt southwesterly winds around 1-2 km AGL. This will support fast-moving well-organized/rotating storms where weak destabilization does occur, which will mainly be in coastal areas of the region. A tornado and isolated damaging wind risk will exist and generally regionally transition eastward in these near-coastal areas through tonight. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will move toward the lower to middle Mississippi Valley during the day, and will lose amplitude as it reaches the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys by Saturday morning. Moderate to strong southwest winds aloft will precede this trough, and overspread much of the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will move across the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, with a surface low developing toward southern Louisiana and Mississippi by early evening. Cool conditions will exist over land ahead of this trough due to a strong surface high over the Mid-Atlantic, and this will likely inhibit destabilization aside from portions of the immediate Gulf Coast. ...Coastal Southeast TX/LA/MS/AL/FL Panhandle... A corridor of scattered thunderstorms have steadily developed in the predawn hours across the far western Gulf of Mexico toward the middle/upper Texas Coast, including some near-shore supercellular development. A very narrow zone of lower 60s F surface dewpoints have reached the upper Texas coast early this morning coincident with some of the stronger convection, but even so, this degree of moisture is not overly conducive to surface-based/more intense convection. A more unstable/moisture-rich air mass will generally continue to remain focused offshore, especially this morning, although a continued low-level moisture influx will continue to occur through the afternoon and tonight across far southern Louisiana and coastal portions of Mississippi/Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, aided by modest frontal wave development. Deep-layer/low-level shear will be quite strong, accentuated by 60-75 kt southwesterly winds around 1-2 km AGL. This will support fast-moving well-organized/rotating storms where weak destabilization does occur, which will mainly be in coastal areas of the region. A tornado and isolated damaging wind risk will exist and generally regionally transition eastward in these near-coastal areas through tonight. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will move toward the lower to middle Mississippi Valley during the day, and will lose amplitude as it reaches the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys by Saturday morning. Moderate to strong southwest winds aloft will precede this trough, and overspread much of the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will move across the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, with a surface low developing toward southern Louisiana and Mississippi by early evening. Cool conditions will exist over land ahead of this trough due to a strong surface high over the Mid-Atlantic, and this will likely inhibit destabilization aside from portions of the immediate Gulf Coast. ...Coastal Southeast TX/LA/MS/AL/FL Panhandle... A corridor of scattered thunderstorms have steadily developed in the predawn hours across the far western Gulf of Mexico toward the middle/upper Texas Coast, including some near-shore supercellular development. A very narrow zone of lower 60s F surface dewpoints have reached the upper Texas coast early this morning coincident with some of the stronger convection, but even so, this degree of moisture is not overly conducive to surface-based/more intense convection. A more unstable/moisture-rich air mass will generally continue to remain focused offshore, especially this morning, although a continued low-level moisture influx will continue to occur through the afternoon and tonight across far southern Louisiana and coastal portions of Mississippi/Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, aided by modest frontal wave development. Deep-layer/low-level shear will be quite strong, accentuated by 60-75 kt southwesterly winds around 1-2 km AGL. This will support fast-moving well-organized/rotating storms where weak destabilization does occur, which will mainly be in coastal areas of the region. A tornado and isolated damaging wind risk will exist and generally regionally transition eastward in these near-coastal areas through tonight. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast today through tonight, including coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will move toward the lower to middle Mississippi Valley during the day, and will lose amplitude as it reaches the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys by Saturday morning. Moderate to strong southwest winds aloft will precede this trough, and overspread much of the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will move across the western Gulf of Mexico during the day, with a surface low developing toward southern Louisiana and Mississippi by early evening. Cool conditions will exist over land ahead of this trough due to a strong surface high over the Mid-Atlantic, and this will likely inhibit destabilization aside from portions of the immediate Gulf Coast. ...Coastal Southeast TX/LA/MS/AL/FL Panhandle... A corridor of scattered thunderstorms have steadily developed in the predawn hours across the far western Gulf of Mexico toward the middle/upper Texas Coast, including some near-shore supercellular development. A very narrow zone of lower 60s F surface dewpoints have reached the upper Texas coast early this morning coincident with some of the stronger convection, but even so, this degree of moisture is not overly conducive to surface-based/more intense convection. A more unstable/moisture-rich air mass will generally continue to remain focused offshore, especially this morning, although a continued low-level moisture influx will continue to occur through the afternoon and tonight across far southern Louisiana and coastal portions of Mississippi/Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, aided by modest frontal wave development. Deep-layer/low-level shear will be quite strong, accentuated by 60-75 kt southwesterly winds around 1-2 km AGL. This will support fast-moving well-organized/rotating storms where weak destabilization does occur, which will mainly be in coastal areas of the region. A tornado and isolated damaging wind risk will exist and generally regionally transition eastward in these near-coastal areas through tonight. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/05/2024 Read more