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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

MD 0028 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 4... FOR PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE INTO NORTH FL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0028 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0905 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the FL Panhandle into north FL and south-central GA Concerning...Tornado Watch 4... Valid 091505Z - 091630Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 4 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for embedded QLCS tornadoes and damaging winds will continue this morning. DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms, with occasional embedded supercell structures, is ongoing this morning across parts of the FL Panhandle into south/central GA. Multiple CC minima/tornadic circulations have been observed with this line over the past several hours. Modifying the 12Z TLH sounding for current surface observations yields only weak MLCAPE. Still, rapid low-level moisture advection is occurring ahead of the line, and even modest daytime heating should allow for weak destabilization downstream. Current expectations are for the tornado threat to continue eastward across south-central GA and north FL, as area VWPs show extremely strong low-level flow (1 km southerly winds in excess of 70 kt from KTLH) and 0-1 km SRH approaching 600 m2/s2 that will easily support embedded QLCS circulations. Straight-line severe/damaging winds around 60-75 mph will also remain a threat with the line given the strength of the low-level flow. ..Gleason.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 29718528 31998449 32288331 32058257 31408249 30198264 29758290 29588342 29908397 29858433 29608471 29528499 29598526 29718528 Read more

MD 0027 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 4... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0027 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0832 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central and eastern Georgia Concerning...Tornado Watch 4... Valid 091432Z - 091600Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 4 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado watch 4 may need to be expanded into portions of central and eastern Georgia. DISCUSSION...Low 60s dewpoints have advected northward across central Georgia which has led to some weak surface based instability north of Tornado watch 4. Continued moisture advection will continue to destabilize this region which will lead to an increasing damaging wind threat through the morning. In addition, a few line-embedded tornadic circulations are possible, particularly if mid 60s dewpoints can advect into the region and bring more substantial surface based instability. ..Bentley/Hart.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC... LAT...LON 32168459 33368398 33678222 32988218 32288239 32168459 Read more