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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...East TX/LA... A negatively tilted upper trough is moving across the Southern Plains into the Gulf Coast region during this forecast period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur ahead of the trough, from TX into AL and the FL panhandle. Surface trajectories will limit the influx of Gulf moisture northward/inland today, making surface-based thunderstorm development unlikely. A strong storm or two might occur from the upper TX gulf coast to coastal LA this afternoon, but any severe activity is expected to remain offshore. ..Hart/Wendt.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...East TX/LA... A negatively tilted upper trough is moving across the Southern Plains into the Gulf Coast region during this forecast period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur ahead of the trough, from TX into AL and the FL panhandle. Surface trajectories will limit the influx of Gulf moisture northward/inland today, making surface-based thunderstorm development unlikely. A strong storm or two might occur from the upper TX gulf coast to coastal LA this afternoon, but any severe activity is expected to remain offshore. ..Hart/Wendt.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...East TX/LA... A negatively tilted upper trough is moving across the Southern Plains into the Gulf Coast region during this forecast period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur ahead of the trough, from TX into AL and the FL panhandle. Surface trajectories will limit the influx of Gulf moisture northward/inland today, making surface-based thunderstorm development unlikely. A strong storm or two might occur from the upper TX gulf coast to coastal LA this afternoon, but any severe activity is expected to remain offshore. ..Hart/Wendt.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...East TX/LA... A negatively tilted upper trough is moving across the Southern Plains into the Gulf Coast region during this forecast period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur ahead of the trough, from TX into AL and the FL panhandle. Surface trajectories will limit the influx of Gulf moisture northward/inland today, making surface-based thunderstorm development unlikely. A strong storm or two might occur from the upper TX gulf coast to coastal LA this afternoon, but any severe activity is expected to remain offshore. ..Hart/Wendt.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...East TX/LA... A negatively tilted upper trough is moving across the Southern Plains into the Gulf Coast region during this forecast period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur ahead of the trough, from TX into AL and the FL panhandle. Surface trajectories will limit the influx of Gulf moisture northward/inland today, making surface-based thunderstorm development unlikely. A strong storm or two might occur from the upper TX gulf coast to coastal LA this afternoon, but any severe activity is expected to remain offshore. ..Hart/Wendt.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a series of shortwave troughs will reinforce mean troughing over the central CONUS through the period, with these being the main influences: 1. A northern-stream perturbation -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery across eastern/southern SK, west-central MT, to near Star Valley in westernmost WY. The southern part of this perturbation should move eastward then break south-southeastward from the main northern-stream belt, and intensify considerably tonight. The net result by 12Z should be a deepening, closed cyclone centered over the BFF/SNY vicinity. The resulting large, synoptic cyclone will be a dominant pattern feature over the central/eastern CONUS for several more days. 2. A southern-stream trough now located near a CAO-CVS-PRS axis and over northeastern Chihuahua. This feature should move eastward and become negatively tilted today, reaching near a LBL-LTS-CLL axis by 00Z. As heights fall and synoptic gradients strengthen in advance of the northern Plains cyclogenesis, this trough will pivot to near a SLN-FYV-GLH axis by 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over west-central KS, along an Arctic front extending from a separate low near FSD to northeastern NM. A Pacific front was drawn from the KS low across extreme western OK, northwest TX, to the Big Bend region and west-central MX. By 00Z, the Arctic front should extend from central MN to south-central OK and the Permian Basin region of west TX and southeastern NM. The Pacific front should be moving more slowly eastward over southern OK, central TX and the middle TX Coast, with a wind shift and some surface veering ahead of the front in east TX. The strongest convective forcing should continue to occur over prefrontal (both fronts) areas with diurnal heating substantially restricted by clouds/precip, minimal to no surface-based buoyancy, marginal elevated instability to support thunder, and mostly messy convective modes. Areal/organized severe-thunderstorm potential should remain (and shift eastward) over the open waters of the northwestern and north-central Gulf, under the left-exit region of a subtropical-jet segment. There, vertical shear will be favorable, and sea-air fluxes should contribute to relatively maximized theta-e and buoyancy in the storm environment. Over land, however, severe potential appears to low for an unconditional outlook. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a series of shortwave troughs will reinforce mean troughing over the central CONUS through the period, with these being the main influences: 1. A northern-stream perturbation -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery across eastern/southern SK, west-central MT, to near Star Valley in westernmost WY. The southern part of this perturbation should move eastward then break south-southeastward from the main northern-stream belt, and intensify considerably tonight. The net result by 12Z should be a deepening, closed cyclone centered over the BFF/SNY vicinity. The resulting large, synoptic cyclone will be a dominant pattern feature over the central/eastern CONUS for several more days. 2. A southern-stream trough now located near a CAO-CVS-PRS axis and over northeastern Chihuahua. This feature should move eastward and become negatively tilted today, reaching near a LBL-LTS-CLL axis by 00Z. As heights fall and synoptic gradients strengthen in advance of the northern Plains cyclogenesis, this trough will pivot to near a SLN-FYV-GLH axis by 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over west-central KS, along an Arctic front extending from a separate low near FSD to northeastern NM. A Pacific front was drawn from the KS low across extreme western OK, northwest TX, to the Big Bend region and west-central MX. By 00Z, the Arctic front should extend from central MN to south-central OK and the Permian Basin region of west TX and southeastern NM. The Pacific front should be moving more slowly eastward over southern OK, central TX and the middle TX Coast, with a wind shift and some surface veering ahead of the front in east TX. The strongest convective forcing should continue to occur over prefrontal (both fronts) areas with diurnal heating substantially restricted by clouds/precip, minimal to no surface-based buoyancy, marginal elevated instability to support thunder, and mostly messy convective modes. Areal/organized severe-thunderstorm potential should remain (and shift eastward) over the open waters of the northwestern and north-central Gulf, under the left-exit region of a subtropical-jet segment. There, vertical shear will be favorable, and sea-air fluxes should contribute to relatively maximized theta-e and buoyancy in the storm environment. Over land, however, severe potential appears to low for an unconditional outlook. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a series of shortwave troughs will reinforce mean troughing over the central CONUS through the period, with these being the main influences: 1. A northern-stream perturbation -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery across eastern/southern SK, west-central MT, to near Star Valley in westernmost WY. The southern part of this perturbation should move eastward then break south-southeastward from the main northern-stream belt, and intensify considerably tonight. The net result by 12Z should be a deepening, closed cyclone centered over the BFF/SNY vicinity. The resulting large, synoptic cyclone will be a dominant pattern feature over the central/eastern CONUS for several more days. 2. A southern-stream trough now located near a CAO-CVS-PRS axis and over northeastern Chihuahua. This feature should move eastward and become negatively tilted today, reaching near a LBL-LTS-CLL axis by 00Z. As heights fall and synoptic gradients strengthen in advance of the northern Plains cyclogenesis, this trough will pivot to near a SLN-FYV-GLH axis by 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over west-central KS, along an Arctic front extending from a separate low near FSD to northeastern NM. A Pacific front was drawn from the KS low across extreme western OK, northwest TX, to the Big Bend region and west-central MX. By 00Z, the Arctic front should extend from central MN to south-central OK and the Permian Basin region of west TX and southeastern NM. The Pacific front should be moving more slowly eastward over southern OK, central TX and the middle TX Coast, with a wind shift and some surface veering ahead of the front in east TX. The strongest convective forcing should continue to occur over prefrontal (both fronts) areas with diurnal heating substantially restricted by clouds/precip, minimal to no surface-based buoyancy, marginal elevated instability to support thunder, and mostly messy convective modes. Areal/organized severe-thunderstorm potential should remain (and shift eastward) over the open waters of the northwestern and north-central Gulf, under the left-exit region of a subtropical-jet segment. There, vertical shear will be favorable, and sea-air fluxes should contribute to relatively maximized theta-e and buoyancy in the storm environment. Over land, however, severe potential appears to low for an unconditional outlook. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a series of shortwave troughs will reinforce mean troughing over the central CONUS through the period, with these being the main influences: 1. A northern-stream perturbation -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery across eastern/southern SK, west-central MT, to near Star Valley in westernmost WY. The southern part of this perturbation should move eastward then break south-southeastward from the main northern-stream belt, and intensify considerably tonight. The net result by 12Z should be a deepening, closed cyclone centered over the BFF/SNY vicinity. The resulting large, synoptic cyclone will be a dominant pattern feature over the central/eastern CONUS for several more days. 2. A southern-stream trough now located near a CAO-CVS-PRS axis and over northeastern Chihuahua. This feature should move eastward and become negatively tilted today, reaching near a LBL-LTS-CLL axis by 00Z. As heights fall and synoptic gradients strengthen in advance of the northern Plains cyclogenesis, this trough will pivot to near a SLN-FYV-GLH axis by 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over west-central KS, along an Arctic front extending from a separate low near FSD to northeastern NM. A Pacific front was drawn from the KS low across extreme western OK, northwest TX, to the Big Bend region and west-central MX. By 00Z, the Arctic front should extend from central MN to south-central OK and the Permian Basin region of west TX and southeastern NM. The Pacific front should be moving more slowly eastward over southern OK, central TX and the middle TX Coast, with a wind shift and some surface veering ahead of the front in east TX. The strongest convective forcing should continue to occur over prefrontal (both fronts) areas with diurnal heating substantially restricted by clouds/precip, minimal to no surface-based buoyancy, marginal elevated instability to support thunder, and mostly messy convective modes. Areal/organized severe-thunderstorm potential should remain (and shift eastward) over the open waters of the northwestern and north-central Gulf, under the left-exit region of a subtropical-jet segment. There, vertical shear will be favorable, and sea-air fluxes should contribute to relatively maximized theta-e and buoyancy in the storm environment. Over land, however, severe potential appears to low for an unconditional outlook. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a series of shortwave troughs will reinforce mean troughing over the central CONUS through the period, with these being the main influences: 1. A northern-stream perturbation -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery across eastern/southern SK, west-central MT, to near Star Valley in westernmost WY. The southern part of this perturbation should move eastward then break south-southeastward from the main northern-stream belt, and intensify considerably tonight. The net result by 12Z should be a deepening, closed cyclone centered over the BFF/SNY vicinity. The resulting large, synoptic cyclone will be a dominant pattern feature over the central/eastern CONUS for several more days. 2. A southern-stream trough now located near a CAO-CVS-PRS axis and over northeastern Chihuahua. This feature should move eastward and become negatively tilted today, reaching near a LBL-LTS-CLL axis by 00Z. As heights fall and synoptic gradients strengthen in advance of the northern Plains cyclogenesis, this trough will pivot to near a SLN-FYV-GLH axis by 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over west-central KS, along an Arctic front extending from a separate low near FSD to northeastern NM. A Pacific front was drawn from the KS low across extreme western OK, northwest TX, to the Big Bend region and west-central MX. By 00Z, the Arctic front should extend from central MN to south-central OK and the Permian Basin region of west TX and southeastern NM. The Pacific front should be moving more slowly eastward over southern OK, central TX and the middle TX Coast, with a wind shift and some surface veering ahead of the front in east TX. The strongest convective forcing should continue to occur over prefrontal (both fronts) areas with diurnal heating substantially restricted by clouds/precip, minimal to no surface-based buoyancy, marginal elevated instability to support thunder, and mostly messy convective modes. Areal/organized severe-thunderstorm potential should remain (and shift eastward) over the open waters of the northwestern and north-central Gulf, under the left-exit region of a subtropical-jet segment. There, vertical shear will be favorable, and sea-air fluxes should contribute to relatively maximized theta-e and buoyancy in the storm environment. Over land, however, severe potential appears to low for an unconditional outlook. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a series of shortwave troughs will reinforce mean troughing over the central CONUS through the period, with these being the main influences: 1. A northern-stream perturbation -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery across eastern/southern SK, west-central MT, to near Star Valley in westernmost WY. The southern part of this perturbation should move eastward then break south-southeastward from the main northern-stream belt, and intensify considerably tonight. The net result by 12Z should be a deepening, closed cyclone centered over the BFF/SNY vicinity. The resulting large, synoptic cyclone will be a dominant pattern feature over the central/eastern CONUS for several more days. 2. A southern-stream trough now located near a CAO-CVS-PRS axis and over northeastern Chihuahua. This feature should move eastward and become negatively tilted today, reaching near a LBL-LTS-CLL axis by 00Z. As heights fall and synoptic gradients strengthen in advance of the northern Plains cyclogenesis, this trough will pivot to near a SLN-FYV-GLH axis by 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over west-central KS, along an Arctic front extending from a separate low near FSD to northeastern NM. A Pacific front was drawn from the KS low across extreme western OK, northwest TX, to the Big Bend region and west-central MX. By 00Z, the Arctic front should extend from central MN to south-central OK and the Permian Basin region of west TX and southeastern NM. The Pacific front should be moving more slowly eastward over southern OK, central TX and the middle TX Coast, with a wind shift and some surface veering ahead of the front in east TX. The strongest convective forcing should continue to occur over prefrontal (both fronts) areas with diurnal heating substantially restricted by clouds/precip, minimal to no surface-based buoyancy, marginal elevated instability to support thunder, and mostly messy convective modes. Areal/organized severe-thunderstorm potential should remain (and shift eastward) over the open waters of the northwestern and north-central Gulf, under the left-exit region of a subtropical-jet segment. There, vertical shear will be favorable, and sea-air fluxes should contribute to relatively maximized theta-e and buoyancy in the storm environment. Over land, however, severe potential appears to low for an unconditional outlook. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a series of shortwave troughs will reinforce mean troughing over the central CONUS through the period, with these being the main influences: 1. A northern-stream perturbation -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery across eastern/southern SK, west-central MT, to near Star Valley in westernmost WY. The southern part of this perturbation should move eastward then break south-southeastward from the main northern-stream belt, and intensify considerably tonight. The net result by 12Z should be a deepening, closed cyclone centered over the BFF/SNY vicinity. The resulting large, synoptic cyclone will be a dominant pattern feature over the central/eastern CONUS for several more days. 2. A southern-stream trough now located near a CAO-CVS-PRS axis and over northeastern Chihuahua. This feature should move eastward and become negatively tilted today, reaching near a LBL-LTS-CLL axis by 00Z. As heights fall and synoptic gradients strengthen in advance of the northern Plains cyclogenesis, this trough will pivot to near a SLN-FYV-GLH axis by 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over west-central KS, along an Arctic front extending from a separate low near FSD to northeastern NM. A Pacific front was drawn from the KS low across extreme western OK, northwest TX, to the Big Bend region and west-central MX. By 00Z, the Arctic front should extend from central MN to south-central OK and the Permian Basin region of west TX and southeastern NM. The Pacific front should be moving more slowly eastward over southern OK, central TX and the middle TX Coast, with a wind shift and some surface veering ahead of the front in east TX. The strongest convective forcing should continue to occur over prefrontal (both fronts) areas with diurnal heating substantially restricted by clouds/precip, minimal to no surface-based buoyancy, marginal elevated instability to support thunder, and mostly messy convective modes. Areal/organized severe-thunderstorm potential should remain (and shift eastward) over the open waters of the northwestern and north-central Gulf, under the left-exit region of a subtropical-jet segment. There, vertical shear will be favorable, and sea-air fluxes should contribute to relatively maximized theta-e and buoyancy in the storm environment. Over land, however, severe potential appears to low for an unconditional outlook. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 12/24/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... An amplified upper pattern will emerge during the Day 4-8 period. An upper low over the Midwest and an attendant large-scale trough will persist for most of the period while gradually shifting east. Meanwhile, an upper ridge over the western U.S. will remain in place until around Days 7-8/Sat-Sun when an eastern Pacific upper trough moves inland over CA. As surface low pressure and a cold front move offshore the Atlantic coast during the first half of the period, strong surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture will result in dry/stable conditions across much of the CONUS. Some rain/thunderstorm chances may develop across CA late in the period as the aforementioned upper trough moves inland, though severe thunderstorms are not expected. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... An amplified upper pattern will emerge during the Day 4-8 period. An upper low over the Midwest and an attendant large-scale trough will persist for most of the period while gradually shifting east. Meanwhile, an upper ridge over the western U.S. will remain in place until around Days 7-8/Sat-Sun when an eastern Pacific upper trough moves inland over CA. As surface low pressure and a cold front move offshore the Atlantic coast during the first half of the period, strong surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture will result in dry/stable conditions across much of the CONUS. Some rain/thunderstorm chances may develop across CA late in the period as the aforementioned upper trough moves inland, though severe thunderstorms are not expected. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... An amplified upper pattern will emerge during the Day 4-8 period. An upper low over the Midwest and an attendant large-scale trough will persist for most of the period while gradually shifting east. Meanwhile, an upper ridge over the western U.S. will remain in place until around Days 7-8/Sat-Sun when an eastern Pacific upper trough moves inland over CA. As surface low pressure and a cold front move offshore the Atlantic coast during the first half of the period, strong surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture will result in dry/stable conditions across much of the CONUS. Some rain/thunderstorm chances may develop across CA late in the period as the aforementioned upper trough moves inland, though severe thunderstorms are not expected. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... An amplified upper pattern will emerge during the Day 4-8 period. An upper low over the Midwest and an attendant large-scale trough will persist for most of the period while gradually shifting east. Meanwhile, an upper ridge over the western U.S. will remain in place until around Days 7-8/Sat-Sun when an eastern Pacific upper trough moves inland over CA. As surface low pressure and a cold front move offshore the Atlantic coast during the first half of the period, strong surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture will result in dry/stable conditions across much of the CONUS. Some rain/thunderstorm chances may develop across CA late in the period as the aforementioned upper trough moves inland, though severe thunderstorms are not expected. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... An amplified upper pattern will emerge during the Day 4-8 period. An upper low over the Midwest and an attendant large-scale trough will persist for most of the period while gradually shifting east. Meanwhile, an upper ridge over the western U.S. will remain in place until around Days 7-8/Sat-Sun when an eastern Pacific upper trough moves inland over CA. As surface low pressure and a cold front move offshore the Atlantic coast during the first half of the period, strong surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture will result in dry/stable conditions across much of the CONUS. Some rain/thunderstorm chances may develop across CA late in the period as the aforementioned upper trough moves inland, though severe thunderstorms are not expected. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the central Plains will slowly shift east toward the Mid-MS Valley on Tuesday. The associated upper trough will envelop much of the CONUS east of the Rockies while an upper ridge builds over the western states. At the surface, a weak surface low will drift from the Mid-MO to the Mid-MS Valley and a cold front will move across much of the Midwest and Southeast. The front will develop fairly far south into the Gulf of Mexico, and modest boundary-layer moisture will mainly be confined to FL/GA and the Carolinas ahead of the eastward-advancing front. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast, but overall poor instability and modest vertical shear will preclude severe potential. In the wake of the Midwest surface low and the synoptic cold front, dry and stable conditions will prevail. ..Leitman.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the central Plains will slowly shift east toward the Mid-MS Valley on Tuesday. The associated upper trough will envelop much of the CONUS east of the Rockies while an upper ridge builds over the western states. At the surface, a weak surface low will drift from the Mid-MO to the Mid-MS Valley and a cold front will move across much of the Midwest and Southeast. The front will develop fairly far south into the Gulf of Mexico, and modest boundary-layer moisture will mainly be confined to FL/GA and the Carolinas ahead of the eastward-advancing front. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast, but overall poor instability and modest vertical shear will preclude severe potential. In the wake of the Midwest surface low and the synoptic cold front, dry and stable conditions will prevail. ..Leitman.. 12/24/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the central Plains will slowly shift east toward the Mid-MS Valley on Tuesday. The associated upper trough will envelop much of the CONUS east of the Rockies while an upper ridge builds over the western states. At the surface, a weak surface low will drift from the Mid-MO to the Mid-MS Valley and a cold front will move across much of the Midwest and Southeast. The front will develop fairly far south into the Gulf of Mexico, and modest boundary-layer moisture will mainly be confined to FL/GA and the Carolinas ahead of the eastward-advancing front. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast, but overall poor instability and modest vertical shear will preclude severe potential. In the wake of the Midwest surface low and the synoptic cold front, dry and stable conditions will prevail. ..Leitman.. 12/24/2023 Read more