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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong) and damaging wind remain possible through the afternoon and into the early evening from parts of Florida into the Carolinas. ...20Z Update... An extensive QLCS is ongoing this afternoon from the Carolinas into north FL, with embedded supercell structures occasionally noted within the line. Attempts at discrete, prefrontal supercell development have also been noted near and just off of the SC coast. Very strong deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection wherever buoyancy can increase above negligible levels, with damaging wind and line-embedded tornadoes being the primary hazards. Extreme low-level shear (with 0-1 km SRH near or above 500 m2/s2) could still support a strong-tornado risk with any prefrontal supercells that can mature across the Carolinas, or perhaps with any persistent embedded supercell within the primary QLCS. The primary QLCS will likely persist until it reaches the Atlantic coast, with some severe threat potentially spreading as far north as southeast VA, and potentially into parts of east-central and south FL into this evening. See WW 5, WW 6, WW 7, and the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong) and damaging wind remain possible through the afternoon and into the early evening from parts of Florida into the Carolinas. ...20Z Update... An extensive QLCS is ongoing this afternoon from the Carolinas into north FL, with embedded supercell structures occasionally noted within the line. Attempts at discrete, prefrontal supercell development have also been noted near and just off of the SC coast. Very strong deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection wherever buoyancy can increase above negligible levels, with damaging wind and line-embedded tornadoes being the primary hazards. Extreme low-level shear (with 0-1 km SRH near or above 500 m2/s2) could still support a strong-tornado risk with any prefrontal supercells that can mature across the Carolinas, or perhaps with any persistent embedded supercell within the primary QLCS. The primary QLCS will likely persist until it reaches the Atlantic coast, with some severe threat potentially spreading as far north as southeast VA, and potentially into parts of east-central and south FL into this evening. See WW 5, WW 6, WW 7, and the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong) and damaging wind remain possible through the afternoon and into the early evening from parts of Florida into the Carolinas. ...20Z Update... An extensive QLCS is ongoing this afternoon from the Carolinas into north FL, with embedded supercell structures occasionally noted within the line. Attempts at discrete, prefrontal supercell development have also been noted near and just off of the SC coast. Very strong deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection wherever buoyancy can increase above negligible levels, with damaging wind and line-embedded tornadoes being the primary hazards. Extreme low-level shear (with 0-1 km SRH near or above 500 m2/s2) could still support a strong-tornado risk with any prefrontal supercells that can mature across the Carolinas, or perhaps with any persistent embedded supercell within the primary QLCS. The primary QLCS will likely persist until it reaches the Atlantic coast, with some severe threat potentially spreading as far north as southeast VA, and potentially into parts of east-central and south FL into this evening. See WW 5, WW 6, WW 7, and the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong) and damaging wind remain possible through the afternoon and into the early evening from parts of Florida into the Carolinas. ...20Z Update... An extensive QLCS is ongoing this afternoon from the Carolinas into north FL, with embedded supercell structures occasionally noted within the line. Attempts at discrete, prefrontal supercell development have also been noted near and just off of the SC coast. Very strong deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection wherever buoyancy can increase above negligible levels, with damaging wind and line-embedded tornadoes being the primary hazards. Extreme low-level shear (with 0-1 km SRH near or above 500 m2/s2) could still support a strong-tornado risk with any prefrontal supercells that can mature across the Carolinas, or perhaps with any persistent embedded supercell within the primary QLCS. The primary QLCS will likely persist until it reaches the Atlantic coast, with some severe threat potentially spreading as far north as southeast VA, and potentially into parts of east-central and south FL into this evening. See WW 5, WW 6, WW 7, and the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong) and damaging wind remain possible through the afternoon and into the early evening from parts of Florida into the Carolinas. ...20Z Update... An extensive QLCS is ongoing this afternoon from the Carolinas into north FL, with embedded supercell structures occasionally noted within the line. Attempts at discrete, prefrontal supercell development have also been noted near and just off of the SC coast. Very strong deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection wherever buoyancy can increase above negligible levels, with damaging wind and line-embedded tornadoes being the primary hazards. Extreme low-level shear (with 0-1 km SRH near or above 500 m2/s2) could still support a strong-tornado risk with any prefrontal supercells that can mature across the Carolinas, or perhaps with any persistent embedded supercell within the primary QLCS. The primary QLCS will likely persist until it reaches the Atlantic coast, with some severe threat potentially spreading as far north as southeast VA, and potentially into parts of east-central and south FL into this evening. See WW 5, WW 6, WW 7, and the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong) and damaging wind remain possible through the afternoon and into the early evening from parts of Florida into the Carolinas. ...20Z Update... An extensive QLCS is ongoing this afternoon from the Carolinas into north FL, with embedded supercell structures occasionally noted within the line. Attempts at discrete, prefrontal supercell development have also been noted near and just off of the SC coast. Very strong deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection wherever buoyancy can increase above negligible levels, with damaging wind and line-embedded tornadoes being the primary hazards. Extreme low-level shear (with 0-1 km SRH near or above 500 m2/s2) could still support a strong-tornado risk with any prefrontal supercells that can mature across the Carolinas, or perhaps with any persistent embedded supercell within the primary QLCS. The primary QLCS will likely persist until it reaches the Atlantic coast, with some severe threat potentially spreading as far north as southeast VA, and potentially into parts of east-central and south FL into this evening. See WW 5, WW 6, WW 7, and the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong) and damaging wind remain possible through the afternoon and into the early evening from parts of Florida into the Carolinas. ...20Z Update... An extensive QLCS is ongoing this afternoon from the Carolinas into north FL, with embedded supercell structures occasionally noted within the line. Attempts at discrete, prefrontal supercell development have also been noted near and just off of the SC coast. Very strong deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection wherever buoyancy can increase above negligible levels, with damaging wind and line-embedded tornadoes being the primary hazards. Extreme low-level shear (with 0-1 km SRH near or above 500 m2/s2) could still support a strong-tornado risk with any prefrontal supercells that can mature across the Carolinas, or perhaps with any persistent embedded supercell within the primary QLCS. The primary QLCS will likely persist until it reaches the Atlantic coast, with some severe threat potentially spreading as far north as southeast VA, and potentially into parts of east-central and south FL into this evening. See WW 5, WW 6, WW 7, and the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong) and damaging wind remain possible through the afternoon and into the early evening from parts of Florida into the Carolinas. ...20Z Update... An extensive QLCS is ongoing this afternoon from the Carolinas into north FL, with embedded supercell structures occasionally noted within the line. Attempts at discrete, prefrontal supercell development have also been noted near and just off of the SC coast. Very strong deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection wherever buoyancy can increase above negligible levels, with damaging wind and line-embedded tornadoes being the primary hazards. Extreme low-level shear (with 0-1 km SRH near or above 500 m2/s2) could still support a strong-tornado risk with any prefrontal supercells that can mature across the Carolinas, or perhaps with any persistent embedded supercell within the primary QLCS. The primary QLCS will likely persist until it reaches the Atlantic coast, with some severe threat potentially spreading as far north as southeast VA, and potentially into parts of east-central and south FL into this evening. See WW 5, WW 6, WW 7, and the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong) and damaging wind remain possible through the afternoon and into the early evening from parts of Florida into the Carolinas. ...20Z Update... An extensive QLCS is ongoing this afternoon from the Carolinas into north FL, with embedded supercell structures occasionally noted within the line. Attempts at discrete, prefrontal supercell development have also been noted near and just off of the SC coast. Very strong deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection wherever buoyancy can increase above negligible levels, with damaging wind and line-embedded tornadoes being the primary hazards. Extreme low-level shear (with 0-1 km SRH near or above 500 m2/s2) could still support a strong-tornado risk with any prefrontal supercells that can mature across the Carolinas, or perhaps with any persistent embedded supercell within the primary QLCS. The primary QLCS will likely persist until it reaches the Atlantic coast, with some severe threat potentially spreading as far north as southeast VA, and potentially into parts of east-central and south FL into this evening. See WW 5, WW 6, WW 7, and the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong) and damaging wind remain possible through the afternoon and into the early evening from parts of Florida into the Carolinas. ...20Z Update... An extensive QLCS is ongoing this afternoon from the Carolinas into north FL, with embedded supercell structures occasionally noted within the line. Attempts at discrete, prefrontal supercell development have also been noted near and just off of the SC coast. Very strong deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection wherever buoyancy can increase above negligible levels, with damaging wind and line-embedded tornadoes being the primary hazards. Extreme low-level shear (with 0-1 km SRH near or above 500 m2/s2) could still support a strong-tornado risk with any prefrontal supercells that can mature across the Carolinas, or perhaps with any persistent embedded supercell within the primary QLCS. The primary QLCS will likely persist until it reaches the Atlantic coast, with some severe threat potentially spreading as far north as southeast VA, and potentially into parts of east-central and south FL into this evening. See WW 5, WW 6, WW 7, and the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong) and damaging wind remain possible through the afternoon and into the early evening from parts of Florida into the Carolinas. ...20Z Update... An extensive QLCS is ongoing this afternoon from the Carolinas into north FL, with embedded supercell structures occasionally noted within the line. Attempts at discrete, prefrontal supercell development have also been noted near and just off of the SC coast. Very strong deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection wherever buoyancy can increase above negligible levels, with damaging wind and line-embedded tornadoes being the primary hazards. Extreme low-level shear (with 0-1 km SRH near or above 500 m2/s2) could still support a strong-tornado risk with any prefrontal supercells that can mature across the Carolinas, or perhaps with any persistent embedded supercell within the primary QLCS. The primary QLCS will likely persist until it reaches the Atlantic coast, with some severe threat potentially spreading as far north as southeast VA, and potentially into parts of east-central and south FL into this evening. See WW 5, WW 6, WW 7, and the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong) and damaging wind remain possible through the afternoon and into the early evening from parts of Florida into the Carolinas. ...20Z Update... An extensive QLCS is ongoing this afternoon from the Carolinas into north FL, with embedded supercell structures occasionally noted within the line. Attempts at discrete, prefrontal supercell development have also been noted near and just off of the SC coast. Very strong deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection wherever buoyancy can increase above negligible levels, with damaging wind and line-embedded tornadoes being the primary hazards. Extreme low-level shear (with 0-1 km SRH near or above 500 m2/s2) could still support a strong-tornado risk with any prefrontal supercells that can mature across the Carolinas, or perhaps with any persistent embedded supercell within the primary QLCS. The primary QLCS will likely persist until it reaches the Atlantic coast, with some severe threat potentially spreading as far north as southeast VA, and potentially into parts of east-central and south FL into this evening. See WW 5, WW 6, WW 7, and the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong) and damaging wind remain possible through the afternoon and into the early evening from parts of Florida into the Carolinas. ...20Z Update... An extensive QLCS is ongoing this afternoon from the Carolinas into north FL, with embedded supercell structures occasionally noted within the line. Attempts at discrete, prefrontal supercell development have also been noted near and just off of the SC coast. Very strong deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection wherever buoyancy can increase above negligible levels, with damaging wind and line-embedded tornadoes being the primary hazards. Extreme low-level shear (with 0-1 km SRH near or above 500 m2/s2) could still support a strong-tornado risk with any prefrontal supercells that can mature across the Carolinas, or perhaps with any persistent embedded supercell within the primary QLCS. The primary QLCS will likely persist until it reaches the Atlantic coast, with some severe threat potentially spreading as far north as southeast VA, and potentially into parts of east-central and south FL into this evening. See WW 5, WW 6, WW 7, and the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong) and damaging wind remain possible through the afternoon and into the early evening from parts of Florida into the Carolinas. ...20Z Update... An extensive QLCS is ongoing this afternoon from the Carolinas into north FL, with embedded supercell structures occasionally noted within the line. Attempts at discrete, prefrontal supercell development have also been noted near and just off of the SC coast. Very strong deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection wherever buoyancy can increase above negligible levels, with damaging wind and line-embedded tornadoes being the primary hazards. Extreme low-level shear (with 0-1 km SRH near or above 500 m2/s2) could still support a strong-tornado risk with any prefrontal supercells that can mature across the Carolinas, or perhaps with any persistent embedded supercell within the primary QLCS. The primary QLCS will likely persist until it reaches the Atlantic coast, with some severe threat potentially spreading as far north as southeast VA, and potentially into parts of east-central and south FL into this evening. See WW 5, WW 6, WW 7, and the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong) and damaging wind remain possible through the afternoon and into the early evening from parts of Florida into the Carolinas. ...20Z Update... An extensive QLCS is ongoing this afternoon from the Carolinas into north FL, with embedded supercell structures occasionally noted within the line. Attempts at discrete, prefrontal supercell development have also been noted near and just off of the SC coast. Very strong deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection wherever buoyancy can increase above negligible levels, with damaging wind and line-embedded tornadoes being the primary hazards. Extreme low-level shear (with 0-1 km SRH near or above 500 m2/s2) could still support a strong-tornado risk with any prefrontal supercells that can mature across the Carolinas, or perhaps with any persistent embedded supercell within the primary QLCS. The primary QLCS will likely persist until it reaches the Atlantic coast, with some severe threat potentially spreading as far north as southeast VA, and potentially into parts of east-central and south FL into this evening. See WW 5, WW 6, WW 7, and the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong) and damaging wind remain possible through the afternoon and into the early evening from parts of Florida into the Carolinas. ...20Z Update... An extensive QLCS is ongoing this afternoon from the Carolinas into north FL, with embedded supercell structures occasionally noted within the line. Attempts at discrete, prefrontal supercell development have also been noted near and just off of the SC coast. Very strong deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection wherever buoyancy can increase above negligible levels, with damaging wind and line-embedded tornadoes being the primary hazards. Extreme low-level shear (with 0-1 km SRH near or above 500 m2/s2) could still support a strong-tornado risk with any prefrontal supercells that can mature across the Carolinas, or perhaps with any persistent embedded supercell within the primary QLCS. The primary QLCS will likely persist until it reaches the Atlantic coast, with some severe threat potentially spreading as far north as southeast VA, and potentially into parts of east-central and south FL into this evening. See WW 5, WW 6, WW 7, and the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong) and damaging wind remain possible through the afternoon and into the early evening from parts of Florida into the Carolinas. ...20Z Update... An extensive QLCS is ongoing this afternoon from the Carolinas into north FL, with embedded supercell structures occasionally noted within the line. Attempts at discrete, prefrontal supercell development have also been noted near and just off of the SC coast. Very strong deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection wherever buoyancy can increase above negligible levels, with damaging wind and line-embedded tornadoes being the primary hazards. Extreme low-level shear (with 0-1 km SRH near or above 500 m2/s2) could still support a strong-tornado risk with any prefrontal supercells that can mature across the Carolinas, or perhaps with any persistent embedded supercell within the primary QLCS. The primary QLCS will likely persist until it reaches the Atlantic coast, with some severe threat potentially spreading as far north as southeast VA, and potentially into parts of east-central and south FL into this evening. See WW 5, WW 6, WW 7, and the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. Read more

WW 0006 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 6 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0031 ..THORNTON..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 6 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC009-015-017-027-049-053-055-057-069-071-075-081-095-097-101- 103-105-115-117-119-127-092040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREVARD CHARLOTTE CITRUS DESOTO HARDEE HERNANDO HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH LAKE LEE LEVY MANATEE ORANGE OSCEOLA PASCO PINELLAS POLK SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER VOLUSIA AMZ550-552-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-092040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM Read more

WW 0007 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 7 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0032 ..THORNTON..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...MHX...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-017-019-033-037-047-051-061-063-065-069-077-079-081-083- 085-093-101-105-107-123-125-127-129-131-135-141-145-153-155-157- 163-165-181-183-185-191-195-092040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE BLADEN BRUNSWICK CASWELL CHATHAM COLUMBUS CUMBERLAND DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GRANVILLE GREENE GUILFORD HALIFAX HARNETT HOKE JOHNSTON LEE LENOIR MONTGOMERY MOORE NASH NEW HANOVER NORTHAMPTON ORANGE PENDER PERSON RICHMOND ROBESON ROCKINGHAM SAMPSON SCOTLAND VANCE WAKE WARREN WAYNE WILSON VAC007-011-025-029-031-037-041-049-053-081-083-111-117-135-143- 145-147-570-590-595-730-092040- Read more

WW 0005 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 5 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CTY TO 20 W JAX TO 30 WSW SAV TO 45 SE AGS TO 20 WSW OGB TO 15 NE CAE TO 40 NNE CLT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0033 ..THORNTON..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...CHS...CAE...RAH...GSP...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-007-019-031-035-083-089-107-109-125-092040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BRADFORD CLAY DUVAL FLAGLER MARION NASSAU PUTNAM ST. JOHNS UNION GAC029-039-051-103-127-179-191-092040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRYAN CAMDEN CHATHAM EFFINGHAM GLYNN LIBERTY MCINTOSH NCC007-025-057-067-151-159-167-179-092040- Read more