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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A midlevel low currently centered over the Ohio Valley will track eastward into the western Atlantic ocean as it devolves into an open wave through the period. A related cold front extending south-southwestward along the Gulf Stream into central Florida will continue southeastward across southern Florida into this evening. Along/immediately ahead of the southeastward-moving front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints) should support isolated thunderstorm development across central/southern Florida despite poor midlevel lapse rates and dry air aloft. Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low owing to veered surface winds/weak frontal convergence, weak instability, and modest deep-layer shear. ..Weinman/Hart.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A midlevel low currently centered over the Ohio Valley will track eastward into the western Atlantic ocean as it devolves into an open wave through the period. A related cold front extending south-southwestward along the Gulf Stream into central Florida will continue southeastward across southern Florida into this evening. Along/immediately ahead of the southeastward-moving front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints) should support isolated thunderstorm development across central/southern Florida despite poor midlevel lapse rates and dry air aloft. Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low owing to veered surface winds/weak frontal convergence, weak instability, and modest deep-layer shear. ..Weinman/Hart.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A midlevel low currently centered over the Ohio Valley will track eastward into the western Atlantic ocean as it devolves into an open wave through the period. A related cold front extending south-southwestward along the Gulf Stream into central Florida will continue southeastward across southern Florida into this evening. Along/immediately ahead of the southeastward-moving front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints) should support isolated thunderstorm development across central/southern Florida despite poor midlevel lapse rates and dry air aloft. Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low owing to veered surface winds/weak frontal convergence, weak instability, and modest deep-layer shear. ..Weinman/Hart.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A midlevel low currently centered over the Ohio Valley will track eastward into the western Atlantic ocean as it devolves into an open wave through the period. A related cold front extending south-southwestward along the Gulf Stream into central Florida will continue southeastward across southern Florida into this evening. Along/immediately ahead of the southeastward-moving front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints) should support isolated thunderstorm development across central/southern Florida despite poor midlevel lapse rates and dry air aloft. Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low owing to veered surface winds/weak frontal convergence, weak instability, and modest deep-layer shear. ..Weinman/Hart.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A midlevel low currently centered over the Ohio Valley will track eastward into the western Atlantic ocean as it devolves into an open wave through the period. A related cold front extending south-southwestward along the Gulf Stream into central Florida will continue southeastward across southern Florida into this evening. Along/immediately ahead of the southeastward-moving front, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints) should support isolated thunderstorm development across central/southern Florida despite poor midlevel lapse rates and dry air aloft. Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low owing to veered surface winds/weak frontal convergence, weak instability, and modest deep-layer shear. ..Weinman/Hart.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0906 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (below) remains on track with no changes needed. Morning observations and latest forecast guidance continue to suggest low potential for fire weather concerns across the country. ..Moore.. 01/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will build into the West and extend into the High Plains region today. Surface high pressure will extend from the Northwest into the southern Plains. With some downslope flow, temperatures in the southern High Plains will warm. Given weak winds, marginal RH, and poorly receptive fuels, fire weather concerns are not expected within the region. Similarly, modest dry offshore winds are anticipated in southern California. However, poor fuels receptiveness will mitigate fire weather risk here as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0906 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (below) remains on track with no changes needed. Morning observations and latest forecast guidance continue to suggest low potential for fire weather concerns across the country. ..Moore.. 01/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will build into the West and extend into the High Plains region today. Surface high pressure will extend from the Northwest into the southern Plains. With some downslope flow, temperatures in the southern High Plains will warm. Given weak winds, marginal RH, and poorly receptive fuels, fire weather concerns are not expected within the region. Similarly, modest dry offshore winds are anticipated in southern California. However, poor fuels receptiveness will mitigate fire weather risk here as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0906 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (below) remains on track with no changes needed. Morning observations and latest forecast guidance continue to suggest low potential for fire weather concerns across the country. ..Moore.. 01/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will build into the West and extend into the High Plains region today. Surface high pressure will extend from the Northwest into the southern Plains. With some downslope flow, temperatures in the southern High Plains will warm. Given weak winds, marginal RH, and poorly receptive fuels, fire weather concerns are not expected within the region. Similarly, modest dry offshore winds are anticipated in southern California. However, poor fuels receptiveness will mitigate fire weather risk here as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0906 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (below) remains on track with no changes needed. Morning observations and latest forecast guidance continue to suggest low potential for fire weather concerns across the country. ..Moore.. 01/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will build into the West and extend into the High Plains region today. Surface high pressure will extend from the Northwest into the southern Plains. With some downslope flow, temperatures in the southern High Plains will warm. Given weak winds, marginal RH, and poorly receptive fuels, fire weather concerns are not expected within the region. Similarly, modest dry offshore winds are anticipated in southern California. However, poor fuels receptiveness will mitigate fire weather risk here as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0906 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (below) remains on track with no changes needed. Morning observations and latest forecast guidance continue to suggest low potential for fire weather concerns across the country. ..Moore.. 01/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will build into the West and extend into the High Plains region today. Surface high pressure will extend from the Northwest into the southern Plains. With some downslope flow, temperatures in the southern High Plains will warm. Given weak winds, marginal RH, and poorly receptive fuels, fire weather concerns are not expected within the region. Similarly, modest dry offshore winds are anticipated in southern California. However, poor fuels receptiveness will mitigate fire weather risk here as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0906 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (below) remains on track with no changes needed. Morning observations and latest forecast guidance continue to suggest low potential for fire weather concerns across the country. ..Moore.. 01/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will build into the West and extend into the High Plains region today. Surface high pressure will extend from the Northwest into the southern Plains. With some downslope flow, temperatures in the southern High Plains will warm. Given weak winds, marginal RH, and poorly receptive fuels, fire weather concerns are not expected within the region. Similarly, modest dry offshore winds are anticipated in southern California. However, poor fuels receptiveness will mitigate fire weather risk here as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a progressive, high-amplitude pattern will continue. A well-developed cyclone, with multiple centers or core vorticity maxima apparent in moisture-channel imagery, covered much of IN and neighboring states, with a trough southwestward across the Arklatex region. The cyclone will devolve to an open wave through the period, but with a strong synoptic trough regardless. By 00Z, the trough should extend from the remnant 500-mb low over PA southwestward across AL. By 12Z tomorrow, the open trough will be over New England, then just offshore of the remainder of the Atlantic Coast from the Mid Atlantic to northeastern FL. At 11Z, surface analysis showed a low well inland near PKB, with occluded front to a triple-point low near the eastern part of the NC/VA border, and cold front to central SC, southeastern GA, northwestern FL, and the northeastern to south-central Gulf. By 00Z, the triple-point low should be offshore from ACY, with cold front southwestward over Atlantic waters to south FL. The front should sweep off the remainder of the FL Peninsula soon thereafter. In the meantime, the Carolinas-area thunderstorm threat has shifted offshore. Isolated thunderstorms may develop in weak but sufficient moisture and lapse rates along/ahead of the front over portions of FL. Isolated thunder also may occur over the upper Ohio Valley region, with about 100-300 J/kg elevated MUCAPE, in the cold-core region of the midlevel circulation. The shear/instability parameter space will be too weak to support an organized severe threat. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a progressive, high-amplitude pattern will continue. A well-developed cyclone, with multiple centers or core vorticity maxima apparent in moisture-channel imagery, covered much of IN and neighboring states, with a trough southwestward across the Arklatex region. The cyclone will devolve to an open wave through the period, but with a strong synoptic trough regardless. By 00Z, the trough should extend from the remnant 500-mb low over PA southwestward across AL. By 12Z tomorrow, the open trough will be over New England, then just offshore of the remainder of the Atlantic Coast from the Mid Atlantic to northeastern FL. At 11Z, surface analysis showed a low well inland near PKB, with occluded front to a triple-point low near the eastern part of the NC/VA border, and cold front to central SC, southeastern GA, northwestern FL, and the northeastern to south-central Gulf. By 00Z, the triple-point low should be offshore from ACY, with cold front southwestward over Atlantic waters to south FL. The front should sweep off the remainder of the FL Peninsula soon thereafter. In the meantime, the Carolinas-area thunderstorm threat has shifted offshore. Isolated thunderstorms may develop in weak but sufficient moisture and lapse rates along/ahead of the front over portions of FL. Isolated thunder also may occur over the upper Ohio Valley region, with about 100-300 J/kg elevated MUCAPE, in the cold-core region of the midlevel circulation. The shear/instability parameter space will be too weak to support an organized severe threat. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a progressive, high-amplitude pattern will continue. A well-developed cyclone, with multiple centers or core vorticity maxima apparent in moisture-channel imagery, covered much of IN and neighboring states, with a trough southwestward across the Arklatex region. The cyclone will devolve to an open wave through the period, but with a strong synoptic trough regardless. By 00Z, the trough should extend from the remnant 500-mb low over PA southwestward across AL. By 12Z tomorrow, the open trough will be over New England, then just offshore of the remainder of the Atlantic Coast from the Mid Atlantic to northeastern FL. At 11Z, surface analysis showed a low well inland near PKB, with occluded front to a triple-point low near the eastern part of the NC/VA border, and cold front to central SC, southeastern GA, northwestern FL, and the northeastern to south-central Gulf. By 00Z, the triple-point low should be offshore from ACY, with cold front southwestward over Atlantic waters to south FL. The front should sweep off the remainder of the FL Peninsula soon thereafter. In the meantime, the Carolinas-area thunderstorm threat has shifted offshore. Isolated thunderstorms may develop in weak but sufficient moisture and lapse rates along/ahead of the front over portions of FL. Isolated thunder also may occur over the upper Ohio Valley region, with about 100-300 J/kg elevated MUCAPE, in the cold-core region of the midlevel circulation. The shear/instability parameter space will be too weak to support an organized severe threat. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a progressive, high-amplitude pattern will continue. A well-developed cyclone, with multiple centers or core vorticity maxima apparent in moisture-channel imagery, covered much of IN and neighboring states, with a trough southwestward across the Arklatex region. The cyclone will devolve to an open wave through the period, but with a strong synoptic trough regardless. By 00Z, the trough should extend from the remnant 500-mb low over PA southwestward across AL. By 12Z tomorrow, the open trough will be over New England, then just offshore of the remainder of the Atlantic Coast from the Mid Atlantic to northeastern FL. At 11Z, surface analysis showed a low well inland near PKB, with occluded front to a triple-point low near the eastern part of the NC/VA border, and cold front to central SC, southeastern GA, northwestern FL, and the northeastern to south-central Gulf. By 00Z, the triple-point low should be offshore from ACY, with cold front southwestward over Atlantic waters to south FL. The front should sweep off the remainder of the FL Peninsula soon thereafter. In the meantime, the Carolinas-area thunderstorm threat has shifted offshore. Isolated thunderstorms may develop in weak but sufficient moisture and lapse rates along/ahead of the front over portions of FL. Isolated thunder also may occur over the upper Ohio Valley region, with about 100-300 J/kg elevated MUCAPE, in the cold-core region of the midlevel circulation. The shear/instability parameter space will be too weak to support an organized severe threat. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a progressive, high-amplitude pattern will continue. A well-developed cyclone, with multiple centers or core vorticity maxima apparent in moisture-channel imagery, covered much of IN and neighboring states, with a trough southwestward across the Arklatex region. The cyclone will devolve to an open wave through the period, but with a strong synoptic trough regardless. By 00Z, the trough should extend from the remnant 500-mb low over PA southwestward across AL. By 12Z tomorrow, the open trough will be over New England, then just offshore of the remainder of the Atlantic Coast from the Mid Atlantic to northeastern FL. At 11Z, surface analysis showed a low well inland near PKB, with occluded front to a triple-point low near the eastern part of the NC/VA border, and cold front to central SC, southeastern GA, northwestern FL, and the northeastern to south-central Gulf. By 00Z, the triple-point low should be offshore from ACY, with cold front southwestward over Atlantic waters to south FL. The front should sweep off the remainder of the FL Peninsula soon thereafter. In the meantime, the Carolinas-area thunderstorm threat has shifted offshore. Isolated thunderstorms may develop in weak but sufficient moisture and lapse rates along/ahead of the front over portions of FL. Isolated thunder also may occur over the upper Ohio Valley region, with about 100-300 J/kg elevated MUCAPE, in the cold-core region of the midlevel circulation. The shear/instability parameter space will be too weak to support an organized severe threat. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 01/28/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Predictability concerns have increased for next weekend, which yields low confidence in confidently assessing severe potential across the Gulf Coast region. As one amplified shortwave trough shifts from the southern Appalachians off the Carolina Coast on D4, an upstream shortwave trough should dig across the Great Lakes towards the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States through D6. This will help maintain a relatively dry, northwesterly to westerly low-level flow regime over the eastern Gulf and FL. As the well-advertised, full-latitude longwave trough approaches the West Coast on D5, a series of embedded vorticity maxima and very fast mid/upper jet should overspread northern Mexico and the adjacent CONUS border area. While the broader guidance signal is for a negative-tilt shortwave trough to evolve into a potential closed low, spatiotemporal differences become pronounced heading into next weekend. Modified moisture return across the western Gulf should result in increasing thunder potential over at least TX late D6 into D7. Richer low-level moisture may be confined to just the TX coastal plain with a relatively limited spatiotemporal threat for severe around Saturday. This may shift east towards FL around next Sunday, but the large ensemble/deterministic spread at this time frame renders low confidence. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Predictability concerns have increased for next weekend, which yields low confidence in confidently assessing severe potential across the Gulf Coast region. As one amplified shortwave trough shifts from the southern Appalachians off the Carolina Coast on D4, an upstream shortwave trough should dig across the Great Lakes towards the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States through D6. This will help maintain a relatively dry, northwesterly to westerly low-level flow regime over the eastern Gulf and FL. As the well-advertised, full-latitude longwave trough approaches the West Coast on D5, a series of embedded vorticity maxima and very fast mid/upper jet should overspread northern Mexico and the adjacent CONUS border area. While the broader guidance signal is for a negative-tilt shortwave trough to evolve into a potential closed low, spatiotemporal differences become pronounced heading into next weekend. Modified moisture return across the western Gulf should result in increasing thunder potential over at least TX late D6 into D7. Richer low-level moisture may be confined to just the TX coastal plain with a relatively limited spatiotemporal threat for severe around Saturday. This may shift east towards FL around next Sunday, but the large ensemble/deterministic spread at this time frame renders low confidence. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Predictability concerns have increased for next weekend, which yields low confidence in confidently assessing severe potential across the Gulf Coast region. As one amplified shortwave trough shifts from the southern Appalachians off the Carolina Coast on D4, an upstream shortwave trough should dig across the Great Lakes towards the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States through D6. This will help maintain a relatively dry, northwesterly to westerly low-level flow regime over the eastern Gulf and FL. As the well-advertised, full-latitude longwave trough approaches the West Coast on D5, a series of embedded vorticity maxima and very fast mid/upper jet should overspread northern Mexico and the adjacent CONUS border area. While the broader guidance signal is for a negative-tilt shortwave trough to evolve into a potential closed low, spatiotemporal differences become pronounced heading into next weekend. Modified moisture return across the western Gulf should result in increasing thunder potential over at least TX late D6 into D7. Richer low-level moisture may be confined to just the TX coastal plain with a relatively limited spatiotemporal threat for severe around Saturday. This may shift east towards FL around next Sunday, but the large ensemble/deterministic spread at this time frame renders low confidence. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge will continue to shift eastward on Monday into more of the Plains. While high surface pressure will remain in parts of the northern/central Rockies, the pressure pattern will become more diffuse from southern California into the southern Plains. Areas of dry conditions are probable, but light winds and poorly receptive fuels will continue to keep fire weather concerns minimal. ..Wendt.. 01/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more