Aggregator

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east side of the trough, with meridional orientation. At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal passage and drying. ...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest New England... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east side of the trough, with meridional orientation. At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal passage and drying. ...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest New England... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east side of the trough, with meridional orientation. At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal passage and drying. ...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest New England... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east side of the trough, with meridional orientation. At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal passage and drying. ...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest New England... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east side of the trough, with meridional orientation. At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal passage and drying. ...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest New England... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east side of the trough, with meridional orientation. At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal passage and drying. ...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest New England... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east side of the trough, with meridional orientation. At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal passage and drying. ...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest New England... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east side of the trough, with meridional orientation. At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal passage and drying. ...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest New England... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east side of the trough, with meridional orientation. At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal passage and drying. ...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest New England... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east side of the trough, with meridional orientation. At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal passage and drying. ...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest New England... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east side of the trough, with meridional orientation. At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal passage and drying. ...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest New England... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east side of the trough, with meridional orientation. At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal passage and drying. ...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest New England... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east side of the trough, with meridional orientation. At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal passage and drying. ...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest New England... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east side of the trough, with meridional orientation. At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal passage and drying. ...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest New England... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east side of the trough, with meridional orientation. At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal passage and drying. ...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest New England... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east side of the trough, with meridional orientation. At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal passage and drying. ...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest New England... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east side of the trough, with meridional orientation. At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal passage and drying. ...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest New England... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/28/2024 Read more

WW 0026 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 26 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW SBN TO 10 ENE BEH TO 30 SW GRR TO 10 E MKG. ..SPC..02/28/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 26 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC003-033-039-085-087-091-099-113-141-149-151-183-280640- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN DE KALB ELKHART KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LA PORTE MARSHALL NOBLE ST. JOSEPH STARKE STEUBEN WHITLEY MIC005-015-021-023-025-027-037-045-057-059-065-067-075-077-081- 091-093-117-139-145-149-155-159-161-280640- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGAN BARRY BERRIEN BRANCH CALHOUN CASS CLINTON EATON GRATIOT HILLSDALE INGHAM IONIA JACKSON KALAMAZOO KENT LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MONTCALM OTTAWA SAGINAW ST. JOSEPH SHIAWASSEE VAN BUREN WASHTENAW Read more

WW 0027 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 27 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..02/28/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...ILX...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 27 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-005-023-025-027-033-035-047-049-051-055-059-065-069-077- 079-081-087-101-119-121-127-133-145-151-153-157-159-163-165-181- 185-189-191-193-199-280540- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER BOND CLARK CLAY CLINTON CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND EDWARDS EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAWRENCE MADISON MARION MASSAC MONROE PERRY POPE PULASKI RANDOLPH RICHLAND ST. CLAIR SALINE UNION WABASH WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON INC005-013-019-021-025-027-029-031-037-041-043-047-051-055-059- 061-063-065-071-077-079-081-083-093-097-101-105-109-115-117-119- 123-125-129-133-135-137-139-143-145-147-153-155-161-163-167-173- 175-177-280540- Read more

MD 0167 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0167 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Areas affected...southern Illinois and Indiana into portions of northern Kentucky and southwest Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 280146Z - 280345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The severe risk is expected to increase this evening and overnight upper-level ascent and a fast-moving cold front intersect with the retreating dryline. Bowing segments and supercells will be capable of all severe hazards as they spread east along the OH Valley. A new Tornado Watch will likely be needed in the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Over the last hour, surface obs near STL showed the dryline retreating westward with a surge in dewpoints to the low 60s F. Evening water-vapor and IR imagery showed large-scale ascent beginning to impinge on the warm sector across portions of the mid MS and lower OH Valleys. Weak convection in the well-mixed warm sector to the west has steadily deepened, and should move into more robust surface moisture this evening. Additional convection also appears likely to develop along the cold front surging southeastward across eastern MO later tonight. Low 60s F surface dewpoints and ~1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support strong updrafts within the warm sector. Very favorable deep-layer shear (50-60 kt) will support a mix of supercells and short bowing segments. Damaging gusts and hail appear likely, given the strong vertical shear and favorable buoyancy. Rapidly increasing low-level shear (evident on area VADs) may support a risk for tornadoes, especially with more sustained supercells. A significant tornado also cannot be ruled out, given very large effective helicity of 400-600 m2/s2 and a 50-60 kt 850 mb jet. Confidence remains low on the exact timing of convective initiation, given that some convective inhibition remains. As ascent begins to deepen, most hi-res guidance, and extrapolation of weaker convection farther west, suggests new storms should develop in the next 1-2 hours and quickly become severe. With all severe hazards possible, a new Tornado Watch is likely needed in the next couple of hours for parts of southern IL/ IN into northern KY and southwestern OH. ..Lyons/Edwards.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 36848841 36748893 36778938 37198983 37468988 37978985 38718946 39188830 40018593 40278485 40188455 39788434 39268422 38748426 38288439 37958475 37428636 36888832 36848841 Read more