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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Isolated thunderstorm chances will continue across parts of the Southeast and FL on Saturday as a weak shortwave impulse migrates across the region. Surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s across the FL Peninsula are expected. However, a warm and dry layer aloft will limit surface-based instability, with MLCAPE generally less than 750 J/kg. Large-scale ascent also will remain weak across the region. Overall severe potential appears low. Across the western U.S., the upper trough along the Pacific Coast will continue to slowly develop south and east. Isolated thunderstorms may persist near the OR coast and into parts northern CA ..Leitman.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Isolated thunderstorm chances will continue across parts of the Southeast and FL on Saturday as a weak shortwave impulse migrates across the region. Surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s across the FL Peninsula are expected. However, a warm and dry layer aloft will limit surface-based instability, with MLCAPE generally less than 750 J/kg. Large-scale ascent also will remain weak across the region. Overall severe potential appears low. Across the western U.S., the upper trough along the Pacific Coast will continue to slowly develop south and east. Isolated thunderstorms may persist near the OR coast and into parts northern CA ..Leitman.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Isolated thunderstorm chances will continue across parts of the Southeast and FL on Saturday as a weak shortwave impulse migrates across the region. Surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s across the FL Peninsula are expected. However, a warm and dry layer aloft will limit surface-based instability, with MLCAPE generally less than 750 J/kg. Large-scale ascent also will remain weak across the region. Overall severe potential appears low. Across the western U.S., the upper trough along the Pacific Coast will continue to slowly develop south and east. Isolated thunderstorms may persist near the OR coast and into parts northern CA ..Leitman.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Isolated thunderstorm chances will continue across parts of the Southeast and FL on Saturday as a weak shortwave impulse migrates across the region. Surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s across the FL Peninsula are expected. However, a warm and dry layer aloft will limit surface-based instability, with MLCAPE generally less than 750 J/kg. Large-scale ascent also will remain weak across the region. Overall severe potential appears low. Across the western U.S., the upper trough along the Pacific Coast will continue to slowly develop south and east. Isolated thunderstorms may persist near the OR coast and into parts northern CA ..Leitman.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Isolated thunderstorm chances will continue across parts of the Southeast and FL on Saturday as a weak shortwave impulse migrates across the region. Surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s across the FL Peninsula are expected. However, a warm and dry layer aloft will limit surface-based instability, with MLCAPE generally less than 750 J/kg. Large-scale ascent also will remain weak across the region. Overall severe potential appears low. Across the western U.S., the upper trough along the Pacific Coast will continue to slowly develop south and east. Isolated thunderstorms may persist near the OR coast and into parts northern CA ..Leitman.. 02/29/2024 Read more

Brownsville was in a stage 2 drought warning as Amistad and Falcon reservoirs on the Rio Grande River were very low. ValleyCentral.com (Brownsville, Texas), Feb 28, 2024

Stage 1 drought restrictions took effect for Pflugerville on March 1, allowing outdoor watering only once per week. The aim was to reduce average daily water use by 10% as storage in the Highland Lakes, the city’s main water source, was below 1,200,000 acre-feet. Community Impact (Austin, Texas), Feb 27, 2024

Drought severely stressed and killed many of Mississippi's magnolia trees. Some magnolias may be able to recover and survive, but others were obviously dead. Mississippi Clarion Ledger (Jackson), Feb 26, 2024

The Southwest Florida Water Management District approved a request from Tampa Bay Water to temporarily increase its permitted withdrawals from the Alafia River from 10% to 19% above baseline flow to store more water in the reservoir before the driest part of the dry season, which is typically in April. Tampa Bay Times (Fla.), Feb 27, 2024

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will migrate from the Lower MS Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Friday. Only very weak surface low development may occur near or just offshore the central Gulf Coast in response to the upper wave. Most forecast guidance keeps any deeper boundary-layer moisture offshore. Cloud cover will inhibit much warming during the day, along with ongoing showers and thunderstorms. Though modest midlevel lapse rates will reside over the region, surface-based destabilization is not expected and at least a weak low-level inversion is depicted in most forecast soundings. Nevertheless, minor elevated instability will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity. Some gusty winds may accompany thunderstorms given strong flow not far above the near-surface layer, but overall severe potential appears low given poor low-level thermodynamics. Across the western U.S., a persistent, broad upper trough will continue to impact the Pacific Northwest vicinity. Strong deep-layers westerly flow will maintain a deep moist layer. Cold temperature aloft will also result in steep lapse rates and sufficient instability to support isolated thunderstorms in orographic ascent along the WA/OR coast and into northern CA. ..Leitman.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will migrate from the Lower MS Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Friday. Only very weak surface low development may occur near or just offshore the central Gulf Coast in response to the upper wave. Most forecast guidance keeps any deeper boundary-layer moisture offshore. Cloud cover will inhibit much warming during the day, along with ongoing showers and thunderstorms. Though modest midlevel lapse rates will reside over the region, surface-based destabilization is not expected and at least a weak low-level inversion is depicted in most forecast soundings. Nevertheless, minor elevated instability will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity. Some gusty winds may accompany thunderstorms given strong flow not far above the near-surface layer, but overall severe potential appears low given poor low-level thermodynamics. Across the western U.S., a persistent, broad upper trough will continue to impact the Pacific Northwest vicinity. Strong deep-layers westerly flow will maintain a deep moist layer. Cold temperature aloft will also result in steep lapse rates and sufficient instability to support isolated thunderstorms in orographic ascent along the WA/OR coast and into northern CA. ..Leitman.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will migrate from the Lower MS Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Friday. Only very weak surface low development may occur near or just offshore the central Gulf Coast in response to the upper wave. Most forecast guidance keeps any deeper boundary-layer moisture offshore. Cloud cover will inhibit much warming during the day, along with ongoing showers and thunderstorms. Though modest midlevel lapse rates will reside over the region, surface-based destabilization is not expected and at least a weak low-level inversion is depicted in most forecast soundings. Nevertheless, minor elevated instability will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity. Some gusty winds may accompany thunderstorms given strong flow not far above the near-surface layer, but overall severe potential appears low given poor low-level thermodynamics. Across the western U.S., a persistent, broad upper trough will continue to impact the Pacific Northwest vicinity. Strong deep-layers westerly flow will maintain a deep moist layer. Cold temperature aloft will also result in steep lapse rates and sufficient instability to support isolated thunderstorms in orographic ascent along the WA/OR coast and into northern CA. ..Leitman.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will migrate from the Lower MS Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Friday. Only very weak surface low development may occur near or just offshore the central Gulf Coast in response to the upper wave. Most forecast guidance keeps any deeper boundary-layer moisture offshore. Cloud cover will inhibit much warming during the day, along with ongoing showers and thunderstorms. Though modest midlevel lapse rates will reside over the region, surface-based destabilization is not expected and at least a weak low-level inversion is depicted in most forecast soundings. Nevertheless, minor elevated instability will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity. Some gusty winds may accompany thunderstorms given strong flow not far above the near-surface layer, but overall severe potential appears low given poor low-level thermodynamics. Across the western U.S., a persistent, broad upper trough will continue to impact the Pacific Northwest vicinity. Strong deep-layers westerly flow will maintain a deep moist layer. Cold temperature aloft will also result in steep lapse rates and sufficient instability to support isolated thunderstorms in orographic ascent along the WA/OR coast and into northern CA. ..Leitman.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will migrate from the Lower MS Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Friday. Only very weak surface low development may occur near or just offshore the central Gulf Coast in response to the upper wave. Most forecast guidance keeps any deeper boundary-layer moisture offshore. Cloud cover will inhibit much warming during the day, along with ongoing showers and thunderstorms. Though modest midlevel lapse rates will reside over the region, surface-based destabilization is not expected and at least a weak low-level inversion is depicted in most forecast soundings. Nevertheless, minor elevated instability will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity. Some gusty winds may accompany thunderstorms given strong flow not far above the near-surface layer, but overall severe potential appears low given poor low-level thermodynamics. Across the western U.S., a persistent, broad upper trough will continue to impact the Pacific Northwest vicinity. Strong deep-layers westerly flow will maintain a deep moist layer. Cold temperature aloft will also result in steep lapse rates and sufficient instability to support isolated thunderstorms in orographic ascent along the WA/OR coast and into northern CA. ..Leitman.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large negative-tilt upper trough will quickly move across the Northeast today, with upper riding over the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains during the day, likely losing amplitude as it moves across the lower MS Valley overnight. To the west, substantial cooling aloft will occur over the Pacific Northwest as a strong midlevel jet noses into northern CA. In advance of the southern Plains trough, a cool air mass will exist at the surface due to a strong surface high over land, and poor trajectories over the Gulf of Mexico initially. Low-level winds will veer to southerly overnight however, and robust moisture will return northward across the Gulf of Mexico. Through 12Z Friday, it appears only elevated instability will be present over land, with scattered showers and thunderstorms most likely tonight from eastern TX into LA. Poor midlevel lapse rates will preclude any severe hail threat. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large negative-tilt upper trough will quickly move across the Northeast today, with upper riding over the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains during the day, likely losing amplitude as it moves across the lower MS Valley overnight. To the west, substantial cooling aloft will occur over the Pacific Northwest as a strong midlevel jet noses into northern CA. In advance of the southern Plains trough, a cool air mass will exist at the surface due to a strong surface high over land, and poor trajectories over the Gulf of Mexico initially. Low-level winds will veer to southerly overnight however, and robust moisture will return northward across the Gulf of Mexico. Through 12Z Friday, it appears only elevated instability will be present over land, with scattered showers and thunderstorms most likely tonight from eastern TX into LA. Poor midlevel lapse rates will preclude any severe hail threat. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large negative-tilt upper trough will quickly move across the Northeast today, with upper riding over the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains during the day, likely losing amplitude as it moves across the lower MS Valley overnight. To the west, substantial cooling aloft will occur over the Pacific Northwest as a strong midlevel jet noses into northern CA. In advance of the southern Plains trough, a cool air mass will exist at the surface due to a strong surface high over land, and poor trajectories over the Gulf of Mexico initially. Low-level winds will veer to southerly overnight however, and robust moisture will return northward across the Gulf of Mexico. Through 12Z Friday, it appears only elevated instability will be present over land, with scattered showers and thunderstorms most likely tonight from eastern TX into LA. Poor midlevel lapse rates will preclude any severe hail threat. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large negative-tilt upper trough will quickly move across the Northeast today, with upper riding over the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains during the day, likely losing amplitude as it moves across the lower MS Valley overnight. To the west, substantial cooling aloft will occur over the Pacific Northwest as a strong midlevel jet noses into northern CA. In advance of the southern Plains trough, a cool air mass will exist at the surface due to a strong surface high over land, and poor trajectories over the Gulf of Mexico initially. Low-level winds will veer to southerly overnight however, and robust moisture will return northward across the Gulf of Mexico. Through 12Z Friday, it appears only elevated instability will be present over land, with scattered showers and thunderstorms most likely tonight from eastern TX into LA. Poor midlevel lapse rates will preclude any severe hail threat. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large negative-tilt upper trough will quickly move across the Northeast today, with upper riding over the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains during the day, likely losing amplitude as it moves across the lower MS Valley overnight. To the west, substantial cooling aloft will occur over the Pacific Northwest as a strong midlevel jet noses into northern CA. In advance of the southern Plains trough, a cool air mass will exist at the surface due to a strong surface high over land, and poor trajectories over the Gulf of Mexico initially. Low-level winds will veer to southerly overnight however, and robust moisture will return northward across the Gulf of Mexico. Through 12Z Friday, it appears only elevated instability will be present over land, with scattered showers and thunderstorms most likely tonight from eastern TX into LA. Poor midlevel lapse rates will preclude any severe hail threat. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large negative-tilt upper trough will quickly move across the Northeast today, with upper riding over the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains during the day, likely losing amplitude as it moves across the lower MS Valley overnight. To the west, substantial cooling aloft will occur over the Pacific Northwest as a strong midlevel jet noses into northern CA. In advance of the southern Plains trough, a cool air mass will exist at the surface due to a strong surface high over land, and poor trajectories over the Gulf of Mexico initially. Low-level winds will veer to southerly overnight however, and robust moisture will return northward across the Gulf of Mexico. Through 12Z Friday, it appears only elevated instability will be present over land, with scattered showers and thunderstorms most likely tonight from eastern TX into LA. Poor midlevel lapse rates will preclude any severe hail threat. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/29/2024 Read more