Aggregator

WW 0034 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 34 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW PFN TO 25 N VLD TO 20 NE SAV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0211 ..DEAN..03/09/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...CHS...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 34 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC005-013-037-039-045-047-065-073-077-079-123-129-091740- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF HAMILTON JEFFERSON LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC003-019-025-027-029-039-049-051-065-101-127-173-179-183-185- 191-229-275-299-305-091740- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATKINSON BERRIEN BRANTLEY BROOKS BRYAN CAMDEN CHARLTON CHATHAM CLINCH ECHOLS GLYNN LANIER LIBERTY LONG LOWNDES MCINTOSH PIERCE THOMAS Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns will remain low on Saturday. A cool, post-frontal, continental air mass will remain in place beneath surface high pressure across the central and southern Plains. This will keep relative humidity around 30-35 percent with light winds where the driest fuels are located. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns will remain low on Saturday. A cool, post-frontal, continental air mass will remain in place beneath surface high pressure across the central and southern Plains. This will keep relative humidity around 30-35 percent with light winds where the driest fuels are located. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns will remain low on Saturday. A cool, post-frontal, continental air mass will remain in place beneath surface high pressure across the central and southern Plains. This will keep relative humidity around 30-35 percent with light winds where the driest fuels are located. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns will remain low on Saturday. A cool, post-frontal, continental air mass will remain in place beneath surface high pressure across the central and southern Plains. This will keep relative humidity around 30-35 percent with light winds where the driest fuels are located. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns will remain low on Saturday. A cool, post-frontal, continental air mass will remain in place beneath surface high pressure across the central and southern Plains. This will keep relative humidity around 30-35 percent with light winds where the driest fuels are located. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns will remain low on Saturday. A cool, post-frontal, continental air mass will remain in place beneath surface high pressure across the central and southern Plains. This will keep relative humidity around 30-35 percent with light winds where the driest fuels are located. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns will remain low on Saturday. A cool, post-frontal, continental air mass will remain in place beneath surface high pressure across the central and southern Plains. This will keep relative humidity around 30-35 percent with light winds where the driest fuels are located. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns will remain low on Saturday. A cool, post-frontal, continental air mass will remain in place beneath surface high pressure across the central and southern Plains. This will keep relative humidity around 30-35 percent with light winds where the driest fuels are located. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns will remain low on Saturday. A cool, post-frontal, continental air mass will remain in place beneath surface high pressure across the central and southern Plains. This will keep relative humidity around 30-35 percent with light winds where the driest fuels are located. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...AND FROM CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. ..Smith/Leitman.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...AND FROM CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. ..Smith/Leitman.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...AND FROM CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. ..Smith/Leitman.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...AND FROM CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. ..Smith/Leitman.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...AND FROM CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. ..Smith/Leitman.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...AND FROM CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. ..Smith/Leitman.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...AND FROM CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. ..Smith/Leitman.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...AND FROM CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. ..Smith/Leitman.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...AND FROM CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. ..Smith/Leitman.. 03/09/2024 Read more

WW 0034 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 34 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW PFN TO 20 NE SAV. ..DEAN..03/09/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...CHS...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 34 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC005-013-037-039-045-047-065-073-077-079-123-129-091640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF HAMILTON JEFFERSON LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC003-005-019-025-027-029-039-049-051-065-075-101-127-173-179- 183-185-191-229-275-299-305-091640- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATKINSON BACON BERRIEN BRANTLEY BROOKS BRYAN CAMDEN CHARLTON CHATHAM CLINCH COOK ECHOLS GLYNN LANIER LIBERTY LONG LOWNDES MCINTOSH PIERCE THOMAS WARE WAYNE Read more