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MD 0216 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0216 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0526 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Areas affected...west central Missouri through eastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 122226Z - 122330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong thunderstorm development is possible through the 7-9 PM CDT time frame, including the potential evolution of isolated supercells posing a risk for marginally severe hail and wind. DISCUSSION...To the south and east of a weak low, embedded within broader surface troughing across much of the central Great Plains, the boundary-layer has become modestly deep and well mixed, with a corridor of limited low-level moisture return (including mid/upper 50s F surface dew points) contributing to CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg. This generally extends from near/west of Kansas City into the eastern Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity, near the southern periphery of colder mid-level air (at or below -20C around 500 mb) associated with a digging short wave trough. Inhibition has slowly been eroded within peak afternoon heating, aided by large-scale ascent, particularly across the Greater Kansas City vicinity, where stronger low-level warm advection has become focused, and across the eastern Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity, within the exit region of an east-southeastward propagating mid-level jet (50+ kt around 500 mb). Strongest deep-layer shear is focused closer to the mid-level jet core, where the initiation of vigorous discrete thunderstorm development seems most probable prior to sunset, before waning earlier with the loss of daytime heating. Farther north, high resolution convection allowing guidance has been suggestive that that higher probabilities for the initiation of sustained thunderstorm development will await nocturnal low-level jet strengthening, and enhancement of forcing associated with low-level warm advection, generally near/east of Kansas City. At least attempts at thunderstorm initiation appear ongoing throughout the destabilizing environment. Regardless of the timing of sustained initiation, isolated supercells structures may evolve and promote a period with potential for convection to produce marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 03/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 39569575 39979472 39989373 39279284 38729357 38319419 37039438 36289503 36589626 37369595 38289594 39569575 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A relatively benign fire weather pattern is expected for the extended forecast period. Currently, dry fuels are only present across the southern High Plains and portions of the central Plains. However, precipitation is expected across the central Plains with some wetting rain possible in the southern High Plains on Friday. In addition to these wetting rains in regions with ongoing dry fuels, minimal overlap of dry/breezy conditions are expected in these areas during the extended forecast period. Therefore, the potential for critical fire weather conditions is too low for probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 03/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A relatively benign fire weather pattern is expected for the extended forecast period. Currently, dry fuels are only present across the southern High Plains and portions of the central Plains. However, precipitation is expected across the central Plains with some wetting rain possible in the southern High Plains on Friday. In addition to these wetting rains in regions with ongoing dry fuels, minimal overlap of dry/breezy conditions are expected in these areas during the extended forecast period. Therefore, the potential for critical fire weather conditions is too low for probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 03/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A relatively benign fire weather pattern is expected for the extended forecast period. Currently, dry fuels are only present across the southern High Plains and portions of the central Plains. However, precipitation is expected across the central Plains with some wetting rain possible in the southern High Plains on Friday. In addition to these wetting rains in regions with ongoing dry fuels, minimal overlap of dry/breezy conditions are expected in these areas during the extended forecast period. Therefore, the potential for critical fire weather conditions is too low for probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 03/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A relatively benign fire weather pattern is expected for the extended forecast period. Currently, dry fuels are only present across the southern High Plains and portions of the central Plains. However, precipitation is expected across the central Plains with some wetting rain possible in the southern High Plains on Friday. In addition to these wetting rains in regions with ongoing dry fuels, minimal overlap of dry/breezy conditions are expected in these areas during the extended forecast period. Therefore, the potential for critical fire weather conditions is too low for probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 03/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A relatively benign fire weather pattern is expected for the extended forecast period. Currently, dry fuels are only present across the southern High Plains and portions of the central Plains. However, precipitation is expected across the central Plains with some wetting rain possible in the southern High Plains on Friday. In addition to these wetting rains in regions with ongoing dry fuels, minimal overlap of dry/breezy conditions are expected in these areas during the extended forecast period. Therefore, the potential for critical fire weather conditions is too low for probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 03/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A relatively benign fire weather pattern is expected for the extended forecast period. Currently, dry fuels are only present across the southern High Plains and portions of the central Plains. However, precipitation is expected across the central Plains with some wetting rain possible in the southern High Plains on Friday. In addition to these wetting rains in regions with ongoing dry fuels, minimal overlap of dry/breezy conditions are expected in these areas during the extended forecast period. Therefore, the potential for critical fire weather conditions is too low for probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 03/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening from eastern Kansas/northeast Oklahoma and the western Ozarks to northern Missouri. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previously issued convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024/ ...Eastern Kansas/Northeast Oklahoma and Missouri... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the south-central Plains this morning will continue eastward, crossing the Ozarks this evening and reaching the lower Ohio River Valley by Wednesday morning. This shortwave trough will generally overlie an increasing, but immature/only modestly moist (50s F surface dewpoints) warm sector, to the east of a southwest/northeast-oriented dryline across the southern Plains toward the Ozarks/lower Missouri Valley. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible over the region late this afternoon, and more so this evening, with a marginal large-hail and locally damaging-wind risk where storms develop. The most probable area for such development is expected across far eastern Kansas into Missouri, potentially beginning by around 530pm-6pm CDT. More uncertainty regarding storm development exists with south-southwestward extent across northeast/east-central Oklahoma. Little if any development through late afternoon/early evening may be the most probable outcome within this corridor across Oklahoma, but various forecast soundings (including 12z NAM, which admittedly may be a bit overly moist and under-mixed) suggest some plausibility to very isolated convective development preceding the mid-level trough. Farther north, thunderstorm development is most probable this evening on the north edge of the modestly moist warm sector across central/northern Missouri, near a weak/modestly delineated warm front. Increasing elevated buoyancy (750-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) and steadily steepening lapse rates will be favorable for potentially severe hail (and even strong winds). However, weak effective shear (attributable to a 3-6km AGL flow weakness) should limit the magnitude and overall extent/duration of the large hail risk with northward extent (roughly north of 38N latitude including the I-70 vicinity). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening from eastern Kansas/northeast Oklahoma and the western Ozarks to northern Missouri. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previously issued convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024/ ...Eastern Kansas/Northeast Oklahoma and Missouri... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the south-central Plains this morning will continue eastward, crossing the Ozarks this evening and reaching the lower Ohio River Valley by Wednesday morning. This shortwave trough will generally overlie an increasing, but immature/only modestly moist (50s F surface dewpoints) warm sector, to the east of a southwest/northeast-oriented dryline across the southern Plains toward the Ozarks/lower Missouri Valley. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible over the region late this afternoon, and more so this evening, with a marginal large-hail and locally damaging-wind risk where storms develop. The most probable area for such development is expected across far eastern Kansas into Missouri, potentially beginning by around 530pm-6pm CDT. More uncertainty regarding storm development exists with south-southwestward extent across northeast/east-central Oklahoma. Little if any development through late afternoon/early evening may be the most probable outcome within this corridor across Oklahoma, but various forecast soundings (including 12z NAM, which admittedly may be a bit overly moist and under-mixed) suggest some plausibility to very isolated convective development preceding the mid-level trough. Farther north, thunderstorm development is most probable this evening on the north edge of the modestly moist warm sector across central/northern Missouri, near a weak/modestly delineated warm front. Increasing elevated buoyancy (750-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) and steadily steepening lapse rates will be favorable for potentially severe hail (and even strong winds). However, weak effective shear (attributable to a 3-6km AGL flow weakness) should limit the magnitude and overall extent/duration of the large hail risk with northward extent (roughly north of 38N latitude including the I-70 vicinity). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening from eastern Kansas/northeast Oklahoma and the western Ozarks to northern Missouri. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previously issued convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024/ ...Eastern Kansas/Northeast Oklahoma and Missouri... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the south-central Plains this morning will continue eastward, crossing the Ozarks this evening and reaching the lower Ohio River Valley by Wednesday morning. This shortwave trough will generally overlie an increasing, but immature/only modestly moist (50s F surface dewpoints) warm sector, to the east of a southwest/northeast-oriented dryline across the southern Plains toward the Ozarks/lower Missouri Valley. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible over the region late this afternoon, and more so this evening, with a marginal large-hail and locally damaging-wind risk where storms develop. The most probable area for such development is expected across far eastern Kansas into Missouri, potentially beginning by around 530pm-6pm CDT. More uncertainty regarding storm development exists with south-southwestward extent across northeast/east-central Oklahoma. Little if any development through late afternoon/early evening may be the most probable outcome within this corridor across Oklahoma, but various forecast soundings (including 12z NAM, which admittedly may be a bit overly moist and under-mixed) suggest some plausibility to very isolated convective development preceding the mid-level trough. Farther north, thunderstorm development is most probable this evening on the north edge of the modestly moist warm sector across central/northern Missouri, near a weak/modestly delineated warm front. Increasing elevated buoyancy (750-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) and steadily steepening lapse rates will be favorable for potentially severe hail (and even strong winds). However, weak effective shear (attributable to a 3-6km AGL flow weakness) should limit the magnitude and overall extent/duration of the large hail risk with northward extent (roughly north of 38N latitude including the I-70 vicinity). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening from eastern Kansas/northeast Oklahoma and the western Ozarks to northern Missouri. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previously issued convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024/ ...Eastern Kansas/Northeast Oklahoma and Missouri... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the south-central Plains this morning will continue eastward, crossing the Ozarks this evening and reaching the lower Ohio River Valley by Wednesday morning. This shortwave trough will generally overlie an increasing, but immature/only modestly moist (50s F surface dewpoints) warm sector, to the east of a southwest/northeast-oriented dryline across the southern Plains toward the Ozarks/lower Missouri Valley. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible over the region late this afternoon, and more so this evening, with a marginal large-hail and locally damaging-wind risk where storms develop. The most probable area for such development is expected across far eastern Kansas into Missouri, potentially beginning by around 530pm-6pm CDT. More uncertainty regarding storm development exists with south-southwestward extent across northeast/east-central Oklahoma. Little if any development through late afternoon/early evening may be the most probable outcome within this corridor across Oklahoma, but various forecast soundings (including 12z NAM, which admittedly may be a bit overly moist and under-mixed) suggest some plausibility to very isolated convective development preceding the mid-level trough. Farther north, thunderstorm development is most probable this evening on the north edge of the modestly moist warm sector across central/northern Missouri, near a weak/modestly delineated warm front. Increasing elevated buoyancy (750-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) and steadily steepening lapse rates will be favorable for potentially severe hail (and even strong winds). However, weak effective shear (attributable to a 3-6km AGL flow weakness) should limit the magnitude and overall extent/duration of the large hail risk with northward extent (roughly north of 38N latitude including the I-70 vicinity). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening from eastern Kansas/northeast Oklahoma and the western Ozarks to northern Missouri. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previously issued convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024/ ...Eastern Kansas/Northeast Oklahoma and Missouri... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the south-central Plains this morning will continue eastward, crossing the Ozarks this evening and reaching the lower Ohio River Valley by Wednesday morning. This shortwave trough will generally overlie an increasing, but immature/only modestly moist (50s F surface dewpoints) warm sector, to the east of a southwest/northeast-oriented dryline across the southern Plains toward the Ozarks/lower Missouri Valley. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible over the region late this afternoon, and more so this evening, with a marginal large-hail and locally damaging-wind risk where storms develop. The most probable area for such development is expected across far eastern Kansas into Missouri, potentially beginning by around 530pm-6pm CDT. More uncertainty regarding storm development exists with south-southwestward extent across northeast/east-central Oklahoma. Little if any development through late afternoon/early evening may be the most probable outcome within this corridor across Oklahoma, but various forecast soundings (including 12z NAM, which admittedly may be a bit overly moist and under-mixed) suggest some plausibility to very isolated convective development preceding the mid-level trough. Farther north, thunderstorm development is most probable this evening on the north edge of the modestly moist warm sector across central/northern Missouri, near a weak/modestly delineated warm front. Increasing elevated buoyancy (750-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) and steadily steepening lapse rates will be favorable for potentially severe hail (and even strong winds). However, weak effective shear (attributable to a 3-6km AGL flow weakness) should limit the magnitude and overall extent/duration of the large hail risk with northward extent (roughly north of 38N latitude including the I-70 vicinity). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening from eastern Kansas/northeast Oklahoma and the western Ozarks to northern Missouri. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previously issued convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024/ ...Eastern Kansas/Northeast Oklahoma and Missouri... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the south-central Plains this morning will continue eastward, crossing the Ozarks this evening and reaching the lower Ohio River Valley by Wednesday morning. This shortwave trough will generally overlie an increasing, but immature/only modestly moist (50s F surface dewpoints) warm sector, to the east of a southwest/northeast-oriented dryline across the southern Plains toward the Ozarks/lower Missouri Valley. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible over the region late this afternoon, and more so this evening, with a marginal large-hail and locally damaging-wind risk where storms develop. The most probable area for such development is expected across far eastern Kansas into Missouri, potentially beginning by around 530pm-6pm CDT. More uncertainty regarding storm development exists with south-southwestward extent across northeast/east-central Oklahoma. Little if any development through late afternoon/early evening may be the most probable outcome within this corridor across Oklahoma, but various forecast soundings (including 12z NAM, which admittedly may be a bit overly moist and under-mixed) suggest some plausibility to very isolated convective development preceding the mid-level trough. Farther north, thunderstorm development is most probable this evening on the north edge of the modestly moist warm sector across central/northern Missouri, near a weak/modestly delineated warm front. Increasing elevated buoyancy (750-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) and steadily steepening lapse rates will be favorable for potentially severe hail (and even strong winds). However, weak effective shear (attributable to a 3-6km AGL flow weakness) should limit the magnitude and overall extent/duration of the large hail risk with northward extent (roughly north of 38N latitude including the I-70 vicinity). Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Wildfire Outbreak Possible... An Extremely Critical fire weather area has been added for portions of the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. This region will be where the strongest mid-level flow overspreads a deeply mixed atmosphere. As a result, sustained winds of 30 mph are expected with gusts of 50+ mph. In addition, relative humidity is expected to be in the single digits. Extensive fuel loading is present in the region and will support large fire spread. In addition, the latest fuel guidance indicates fuels have dried even further since the wildfire outbreak at the end of February with daily ERC values likely above the 95th percentile for the date by tomorrow afternoon. ..Bentley.. 03/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will round the western US longwave trough on Wednesday before overspreading the Rocky Mountains and the central Plains. Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central high Plains, with a surface dryline extending from central Kansas southward into western/central Texas. Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are expected behind the surface dryline, where strong westerly flow is expected to overlap low afternoon relative humidity. Across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas and northward into western Oklahoma, relative-humidity reductions to 10-20 percent will overlap surface winds around 20-25 mph (locally as high as 30 mph). Latest fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region remain critically dry, which will support inclusion of a Critical risk. Recent fire activity also supports the notion that fuels within this area remain critically dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Wildfire Outbreak Possible... An Extremely Critical fire weather area has been added for portions of the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. This region will be where the strongest mid-level flow overspreads a deeply mixed atmosphere. As a result, sustained winds of 30 mph are expected with gusts of 50+ mph. In addition, relative humidity is expected to be in the single digits. Extensive fuel loading is present in the region and will support large fire spread. In addition, the latest fuel guidance indicates fuels have dried even further since the wildfire outbreak at the end of February with daily ERC values likely above the 95th percentile for the date by tomorrow afternoon. ..Bentley.. 03/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will round the western US longwave trough on Wednesday before overspreading the Rocky Mountains and the central Plains. Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central high Plains, with a surface dryline extending from central Kansas southward into western/central Texas. Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are expected behind the surface dryline, where strong westerly flow is expected to overlap low afternoon relative humidity. Across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas and northward into western Oklahoma, relative-humidity reductions to 10-20 percent will overlap surface winds around 20-25 mph (locally as high as 30 mph). Latest fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region remain critically dry, which will support inclusion of a Critical risk. Recent fire activity also supports the notion that fuels within this area remain critically dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Wildfire Outbreak Possible... An Extremely Critical fire weather area has been added for portions of the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. This region will be where the strongest mid-level flow overspreads a deeply mixed atmosphere. As a result, sustained winds of 30 mph are expected with gusts of 50+ mph. In addition, relative humidity is expected to be in the single digits. Extensive fuel loading is present in the region and will support large fire spread. In addition, the latest fuel guidance indicates fuels have dried even further since the wildfire outbreak at the end of February with daily ERC values likely above the 95th percentile for the date by tomorrow afternoon. ..Bentley.. 03/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will round the western US longwave trough on Wednesday before overspreading the Rocky Mountains and the central Plains. Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central high Plains, with a surface dryline extending from central Kansas southward into western/central Texas. Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are expected behind the surface dryline, where strong westerly flow is expected to overlap low afternoon relative humidity. Across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas and northward into western Oklahoma, relative-humidity reductions to 10-20 percent will overlap surface winds around 20-25 mph (locally as high as 30 mph). Latest fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region remain critically dry, which will support inclusion of a Critical risk. Recent fire activity also supports the notion that fuels within this area remain critically dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Wildfire Outbreak Possible... An Extremely Critical fire weather area has been added for portions of the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. This region will be where the strongest mid-level flow overspreads a deeply mixed atmosphere. As a result, sustained winds of 30 mph are expected with gusts of 50+ mph. In addition, relative humidity is expected to be in the single digits. Extensive fuel loading is present in the region and will support large fire spread. In addition, the latest fuel guidance indicates fuels have dried even further since the wildfire outbreak at the end of February with daily ERC values likely above the 95th percentile for the date by tomorrow afternoon. ..Bentley.. 03/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will round the western US longwave trough on Wednesday before overspreading the Rocky Mountains and the central Plains. Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central high Plains, with a surface dryline extending from central Kansas southward into western/central Texas. Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are expected behind the surface dryline, where strong westerly flow is expected to overlap low afternoon relative humidity. Across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas and northward into western Oklahoma, relative-humidity reductions to 10-20 percent will overlap surface winds around 20-25 mph (locally as high as 30 mph). Latest fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region remain critically dry, which will support inclusion of a Critical risk. Recent fire activity also supports the notion that fuels within this area remain critically dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Wildfire Outbreak Possible... An Extremely Critical fire weather area has been added for portions of the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. This region will be where the strongest mid-level flow overspreads a deeply mixed atmosphere. As a result, sustained winds of 30 mph are expected with gusts of 50+ mph. In addition, relative humidity is expected to be in the single digits. Extensive fuel loading is present in the region and will support large fire spread. In addition, the latest fuel guidance indicates fuels have dried even further since the wildfire outbreak at the end of February with daily ERC values likely above the 95th percentile for the date by tomorrow afternoon. ..Bentley.. 03/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will round the western US longwave trough on Wednesday before overspreading the Rocky Mountains and the central Plains. Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central high Plains, with a surface dryline extending from central Kansas southward into western/central Texas. Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are expected behind the surface dryline, where strong westerly flow is expected to overlap low afternoon relative humidity. Across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas and northward into western Oklahoma, relative-humidity reductions to 10-20 percent will overlap surface winds around 20-25 mph (locally as high as 30 mph). Latest fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region remain critically dry, which will support inclusion of a Critical risk. Recent fire activity also supports the notion that fuels within this area remain critically dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Wildfire Outbreak Possible... An Extremely Critical fire weather area has been added for portions of the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. This region will be where the strongest mid-level flow overspreads a deeply mixed atmosphere. As a result, sustained winds of 30 mph are expected with gusts of 50+ mph. In addition, relative humidity is expected to be in the single digits. Extensive fuel loading is present in the region and will support large fire spread. In addition, the latest fuel guidance indicates fuels have dried even further since the wildfire outbreak at the end of February with daily ERC values likely above the 95th percentile for the date by tomorrow afternoon. ..Bentley.. 03/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will round the western US longwave trough on Wednesday before overspreading the Rocky Mountains and the central Plains. Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central high Plains, with a surface dryline extending from central Kansas southward into western/central Texas. Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are expected behind the surface dryline, where strong westerly flow is expected to overlap low afternoon relative humidity. Across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas and northward into western Oklahoma, relative-humidity reductions to 10-20 percent will overlap surface winds around 20-25 mph (locally as high as 30 mph). Latest fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region remain critically dry, which will support inclusion of a Critical risk. Recent fire activity also supports the notion that fuels within this area remain critically dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more