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WW 41 SEVERE TSTM IN KY OH 141450Z - 142000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 41 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of much of Indiana far northern Kentucky parts of western Ohio * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 1050 AM until 400 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A broken band of thunderstorms is expected to continue intensifying this morning and into this afternoon, as it moves across Indiana and vicinity. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible, along with potential for a couple of brief tornadoes associated with stronger cells within the broader line of storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northwest of Muncie IN to 50 miles south of Bloomington IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 39...WW 40... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Goss Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest, with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with scattered rain and thunderstorms. At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states. ...Central TX across the Southeastern states... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain, but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging gusts. Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains valid. ..Jewell.. 03/14/2024 Read more

MD 0229 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK...WESTERN/NORTHERN AR...AND SOUTHERN MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0229 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Areas affected...Portions of eastern OK...western/northern AR...and southern MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 141524Z - 141700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Trends are being closely monitored for robust thunderstorm development this morning. If convection forms, it would quickly become severe and warrant watch issuance. DISCUSSION...12Z soundings from OUN, FWD, SHV, and LZK all show a stout cap in place in the 850-700 mb layer. Still, recent visible satellite trends show the cu field across eastern OK into northwestern AR is slowly building and becoming somewhat more agitated as filtered daytime heating occurs. A rich, moist low-level airmass, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 60s, is already in place across this area and into southern MO along/south of a convectively reinforced boundary. The presence of steep mid-level lapse rates is also contributing to substantial instability, with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced southwesterly low-level flow veers and gradually strengthens with height through mid/upper levels, which is supporting around 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear. Primary uncertainty is when robust convection will initiate, as forcing aloft remains nebulous/subtle, with mid-level heights generally remaining neutral or slightly rising over the next couple of hours. But, if convection forms on the earlier side of what convection-allowing guidance suggests is possible, namely in the next 1-2 hours, then it would quickly become severe given the rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment present. Large to very large hail, severe/damaging winds, and tornadoes all appear possible if thunderstorms can initiate with the gradual erosion of the cap. While not immediately likely, observational and convective trends will be closely monitored for signs of increasing thunderstorm potential this morning, which could necessitate watch issuance before noon. ..Gleason/Goss.. 03/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA... LAT...LON 34529533 36559452 37089324 36919246 36119228 35129287 34329370 34069442 34179509 34529533 Read more