Aggregator

No watches are valid as of Sun Mar 31 23:46:01 UTC 2024.

MD 0317 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0317 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0526 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Areas affected...portions of northern Missouri into central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 312226Z - 010030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Severe hail will accompany ongoing elevated supercell in west-central IL, moving into central IL, in the near term. Convective initiation is more uncertain farther south along the warm front in northern MO given weak forcing. Buoyancy and shear does favor severe storm development should convective initiation occur. Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a WW issuance. DISCUSSION...An elevated supercell in west-central IL, with a history of marginally severe hail, persists within strong zonal mid-level flow to the north of a warm front. Strong 850-700 mb WAA continues to advect adequate moisture ahead of the supercell in central IL, boosting MUCAPE into the 500-1000 J/kg range (per 21Z mesoanalysis). Meanwhile the stronger southwesterly WAA beneath 60+ kt westerly 500 mb flow is contributing to modestly curved but elongated hodographs. As such, severe hail development may persist with this supercell for a couple more hours. Meanwhile, surface-based convective initiation from agitated CU farther south along the warm front, draped from roughly Linn County MO to Jasper County IL, remains uncertain in the absence of strong forcing. Surface heating has boosted MLCAPE into the 1000-1500 J/kg range amid stronger deep-layer shear (i.e. elongated and curved hodographs supporting 60+ kts of effective bulk shear). As such, any storms that can initiate and become sustained may produce severe hail/wind. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for the possibility of convective initiation over the next few hours. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 03/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX... LAT...LON 39919320 40399240 40689096 40678934 40358816 39788775 39208768 38848780 38788853 39149028 39539183 39669268 39919320 Read more

MD 0316 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0316 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Areas affected...portions of central Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 312143Z - 312345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple instances of hail and perhaps strong wind gusts will accompany the stronger storms over the next few hours. The severe threat is expected to remain isolated into the evening hours. DISCUSSION...Multiple discrete storms (possibly small supercells) have been percolating in intensity over the past hour or so, as seen by MRMS mosaic radar data. These storms are traversing a diffuse effective warm front, where at least upper 50s F surface dewpoints and steep low-level lapse rates are contributing up to 500 J/kg of thin MLCAPE. RAP forecast soundings and regional VADs show relatively straight, elongated hodographs, which favor a continued discrete storm mode with persistent enough mid-level rotation to foster some hail production. A couple of strong wind gusts are also possible given the steep low-level lapse rates. The severe threat should remain sparse and localized into the evening hours, when a weakening trend is expected given nocturnal cooling. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 03/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 38107956 37637809 37127725 36817705 36587724 36647775 37117863 37547944 37837970 38107956 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z On Day 3/Tuesday, a positively tilted mid/upper-level trough will move east-southeastward over the central/southern Plains, while a separate northern-stream jet streak digs southward across the northern/central Plains and MS Valley. This will promote breezy/gusty northerly post-frontal surface winds across much of the Great Plains. While generally cool surface temperatures will limit RH reductions for most areas, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible where fuels are dry. Over the Rio Grande in south TX, these breezy winds will overlap downslope-aided lower RH, favoring locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low for probabilities. Thereafter, the strong post-frontal winds will overspread the MS, OH, and TN Valleys on Day 4/Wednesday, before shifting eastward into the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic on Day 5/Thursday. Preceding rainfall and somewhat marginal RH reductions should generally temper fire-weather concerns, though elevated conditions cannot be ruled out for areas that miss out on substantial rainfall. For Days 6-7/Friday-Saturday, medium-range guidance and ensembles are in very good agreement, depicting high-amplitude large-scale troughs over the East and West -- characteristic of an omega block pattern. Strong meridional flow ahead of the western CONUS trough and antecedent drying will promote strong surface winds and low RH across the central/southern High Plains both days. Given the above-average predictability pattern, 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for each day. A gap in the 70-percent probabilities was added for Day 6/Friday to account for preceding rainfall over northeast NM and far southeast CO, though these areas may need to be connected if fuels can dry out sufficiently. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z On Day 3/Tuesday, a positively tilted mid/upper-level trough will move east-southeastward over the central/southern Plains, while a separate northern-stream jet streak digs southward across the northern/central Plains and MS Valley. This will promote breezy/gusty northerly post-frontal surface winds across much of the Great Plains. While generally cool surface temperatures will limit RH reductions for most areas, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible where fuels are dry. Over the Rio Grande in south TX, these breezy winds will overlap downslope-aided lower RH, favoring locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low for probabilities. Thereafter, the strong post-frontal winds will overspread the MS, OH, and TN Valleys on Day 4/Wednesday, before shifting eastward into the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic on Day 5/Thursday. Preceding rainfall and somewhat marginal RH reductions should generally temper fire-weather concerns, though elevated conditions cannot be ruled out for areas that miss out on substantial rainfall. For Days 6-7/Friday-Saturday, medium-range guidance and ensembles are in very good agreement, depicting high-amplitude large-scale troughs over the East and West -- characteristic of an omega block pattern. Strong meridional flow ahead of the western CONUS trough and antecedent drying will promote strong surface winds and low RH across the central/southern High Plains both days. Given the above-average predictability pattern, 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for each day. A gap in the 70-percent probabilities was added for Day 6/Friday to account for preceding rainfall over northeast NM and far southeast CO, though these areas may need to be connected if fuels can dry out sufficiently. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z On Day 3/Tuesday, a positively tilted mid/upper-level trough will move east-southeastward over the central/southern Plains, while a separate northern-stream jet streak digs southward across the northern/central Plains and MS Valley. This will promote breezy/gusty northerly post-frontal surface winds across much of the Great Plains. While generally cool surface temperatures will limit RH reductions for most areas, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible where fuels are dry. Over the Rio Grande in south TX, these breezy winds will overlap downslope-aided lower RH, favoring locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low for probabilities. Thereafter, the strong post-frontal winds will overspread the MS, OH, and TN Valleys on Day 4/Wednesday, before shifting eastward into the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic on Day 5/Thursday. Preceding rainfall and somewhat marginal RH reductions should generally temper fire-weather concerns, though elevated conditions cannot be ruled out for areas that miss out on substantial rainfall. For Days 6-7/Friday-Saturday, medium-range guidance and ensembles are in very good agreement, depicting high-amplitude large-scale troughs over the East and West -- characteristic of an omega block pattern. Strong meridional flow ahead of the western CONUS trough and antecedent drying will promote strong surface winds and low RH across the central/southern High Plains both days. Given the above-average predictability pattern, 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for each day. A gap in the 70-percent probabilities was added for Day 6/Friday to account for preceding rainfall over northeast NM and far southeast CO, though these areas may need to be connected if fuels can dry out sufficiently. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z On Day 3/Tuesday, a positively tilted mid/upper-level trough will move east-southeastward over the central/southern Plains, while a separate northern-stream jet streak digs southward across the northern/central Plains and MS Valley. This will promote breezy/gusty northerly post-frontal surface winds across much of the Great Plains. While generally cool surface temperatures will limit RH reductions for most areas, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible where fuels are dry. Over the Rio Grande in south TX, these breezy winds will overlap downslope-aided lower RH, favoring locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low for probabilities. Thereafter, the strong post-frontal winds will overspread the MS, OH, and TN Valleys on Day 4/Wednesday, before shifting eastward into the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic on Day 5/Thursday. Preceding rainfall and somewhat marginal RH reductions should generally temper fire-weather concerns, though elevated conditions cannot be ruled out for areas that miss out on substantial rainfall. For Days 6-7/Friday-Saturday, medium-range guidance and ensembles are in very good agreement, depicting high-amplitude large-scale troughs over the East and West -- characteristic of an omega block pattern. Strong meridional flow ahead of the western CONUS trough and antecedent drying will promote strong surface winds and low RH across the central/southern High Plains both days. Given the above-average predictability pattern, 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for each day. A gap in the 70-percent probabilities was added for Day 6/Friday to account for preceding rainfall over northeast NM and far southeast CO, though these areas may need to be connected if fuels can dry out sufficiently. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z On Day 3/Tuesday, a positively tilted mid/upper-level trough will move east-southeastward over the central/southern Plains, while a separate northern-stream jet streak digs southward across the northern/central Plains and MS Valley. This will promote breezy/gusty northerly post-frontal surface winds across much of the Great Plains. While generally cool surface temperatures will limit RH reductions for most areas, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible where fuels are dry. Over the Rio Grande in south TX, these breezy winds will overlap downslope-aided lower RH, favoring locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low for probabilities. Thereafter, the strong post-frontal winds will overspread the MS, OH, and TN Valleys on Day 4/Wednesday, before shifting eastward into the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic on Day 5/Thursday. Preceding rainfall and somewhat marginal RH reductions should generally temper fire-weather concerns, though elevated conditions cannot be ruled out for areas that miss out on substantial rainfall. For Days 6-7/Friday-Saturday, medium-range guidance and ensembles are in very good agreement, depicting high-amplitude large-scale troughs over the East and West -- characteristic of an omega block pattern. Strong meridional flow ahead of the western CONUS trough and antecedent drying will promote strong surface winds and low RH across the central/southern High Plains both days. Given the above-average predictability pattern, 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for each day. A gap in the 70-percent probabilities was added for Day 6/Friday to account for preceding rainfall over northeast NM and far southeast CO, though these areas may need to be connected if fuels can dry out sufficiently. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z On Day 3/Tuesday, a positively tilted mid/upper-level trough will move east-southeastward over the central/southern Plains, while a separate northern-stream jet streak digs southward across the northern/central Plains and MS Valley. This will promote breezy/gusty northerly post-frontal surface winds across much of the Great Plains. While generally cool surface temperatures will limit RH reductions for most areas, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible where fuels are dry. Over the Rio Grande in south TX, these breezy winds will overlap downslope-aided lower RH, favoring locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low for probabilities. Thereafter, the strong post-frontal winds will overspread the MS, OH, and TN Valleys on Day 4/Wednesday, before shifting eastward into the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic on Day 5/Thursday. Preceding rainfall and somewhat marginal RH reductions should generally temper fire-weather concerns, though elevated conditions cannot be ruled out for areas that miss out on substantial rainfall. For Days 6-7/Friday-Saturday, medium-range guidance and ensembles are in very good agreement, depicting high-amplitude large-scale troughs over the East and West -- characteristic of an omega block pattern. Strong meridional flow ahead of the western CONUS trough and antecedent drying will promote strong surface winds and low RH across the central/southern High Plains both days. Given the above-average predictability pattern, 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for each day. A gap in the 70-percent probabilities was added for Day 6/Friday to account for preceding rainfall over northeast NM and far southeast CO, though these areas may need to be connected if fuels can dry out sufficiently. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z On Day 3/Tuesday, a positively tilted mid/upper-level trough will move east-southeastward over the central/southern Plains, while a separate northern-stream jet streak digs southward across the northern/central Plains and MS Valley. This will promote breezy/gusty northerly post-frontal surface winds across much of the Great Plains. While generally cool surface temperatures will limit RH reductions for most areas, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible where fuels are dry. Over the Rio Grande in south TX, these breezy winds will overlap downslope-aided lower RH, favoring locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low for probabilities. Thereafter, the strong post-frontal winds will overspread the MS, OH, and TN Valleys on Day 4/Wednesday, before shifting eastward into the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic on Day 5/Thursday. Preceding rainfall and somewhat marginal RH reductions should generally temper fire-weather concerns, though elevated conditions cannot be ruled out for areas that miss out on substantial rainfall. For Days 6-7/Friday-Saturday, medium-range guidance and ensembles are in very good agreement, depicting high-amplitude large-scale troughs over the East and West -- characteristic of an omega block pattern. Strong meridional flow ahead of the western CONUS trough and antecedent drying will promote strong surface winds and low RH across the central/southern High Plains both days. Given the above-average predictability pattern, 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for each day. A gap in the 70-percent probabilities was added for Day 6/Friday to account for preceding rainfall over northeast NM and far southeast CO, though these areas may need to be connected if fuels can dry out sufficiently. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Mar 31 21:34:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NORTHERN MO TO CENTRAL IL/IN... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce large hail later this afternoon into tonight from northern Missouri to central Illinois/Indiana. Isolated large hail and/or wind damage may also occur this afternoon from southern West Virginia into south central Virginia. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the previous forecast. ..Wendt.. 03/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024/ ...MO/IL to VA through tonight... A largely east-west oriented baroclinic zone will drift slowly northward as a warm front across MO/IL, well east of lee cyclogenesis across eastern CO. The potential for surface-based storms along the warm front appears questionable, given lingering capping with a relatively warm elevated mixed layer atop the moistening boundary layer. Much of the convection through the period will likely be elevated atop the frontal surface and tied to low-level warm advection. There will be sufficient cloud-layer shear for supercells capable of producing large hail, but confidence in specific storm development this afternoon (see MD #315 for additional information) versus tonight is relatively low. Thus, will maintain the conditional outlook area with few changes. Farther east, some convection is ongoing in a loose cluster across southern WV in association with weak low-level warm advection. Some expansion of the weakly unstable warm sector is expected into VA through the afternoon, and a couple of storms could persist along this corridor to near the VA/NC by mid-late afternoon. There will be a conditional threat for a somewhat high-based supercell or two with an accompanying threat for isolated large hail and/or damaging outflow gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NORTHERN MO TO CENTRAL IL/IN... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce large hail later this afternoon into tonight from northern Missouri to central Illinois/Indiana. Isolated large hail and/or wind damage may also occur this afternoon from southern West Virginia into south central Virginia. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the previous forecast. ..Wendt.. 03/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024/ ...MO/IL to VA through tonight... A largely east-west oriented baroclinic zone will drift slowly northward as a warm front across MO/IL, well east of lee cyclogenesis across eastern CO. The potential for surface-based storms along the warm front appears questionable, given lingering capping with a relatively warm elevated mixed layer atop the moistening boundary layer. Much of the convection through the period will likely be elevated atop the frontal surface and tied to low-level warm advection. There will be sufficient cloud-layer shear for supercells capable of producing large hail, but confidence in specific storm development this afternoon (see MD #315 for additional information) versus tonight is relatively low. Thus, will maintain the conditional outlook area with few changes. Farther east, some convection is ongoing in a loose cluster across southern WV in association with weak low-level warm advection. Some expansion of the weakly unstable warm sector is expected into VA through the afternoon, and a couple of storms could persist along this corridor to near the VA/NC by mid-late afternoon. There will be a conditional threat for a somewhat high-based supercell or two with an accompanying threat for isolated large hail and/or damaging outflow gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NORTHERN MO TO CENTRAL IL/IN... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce large hail later this afternoon into tonight from northern Missouri to central Illinois/Indiana. Isolated large hail and/or wind damage may also occur this afternoon from southern West Virginia into south central Virginia. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the previous forecast. ..Wendt.. 03/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024/ ...MO/IL to VA through tonight... A largely east-west oriented baroclinic zone will drift slowly northward as a warm front across MO/IL, well east of lee cyclogenesis across eastern CO. The potential for surface-based storms along the warm front appears questionable, given lingering capping with a relatively warm elevated mixed layer atop the moistening boundary layer. Much of the convection through the period will likely be elevated atop the frontal surface and tied to low-level warm advection. There will be sufficient cloud-layer shear for supercells capable of producing large hail, but confidence in specific storm development this afternoon (see MD #315 for additional information) versus tonight is relatively low. Thus, will maintain the conditional outlook area with few changes. Farther east, some convection is ongoing in a loose cluster across southern WV in association with weak low-level warm advection. Some expansion of the weakly unstable warm sector is expected into VA through the afternoon, and a couple of storms could persist along this corridor to near the VA/NC by mid-late afternoon. There will be a conditional threat for a somewhat high-based supercell or two with an accompanying threat for isolated large hail and/or damaging outflow gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NORTHERN MO TO CENTRAL IL/IN... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce large hail later this afternoon into tonight from northern Missouri to central Illinois/Indiana. Isolated large hail and/or wind damage may also occur this afternoon from southern West Virginia into south central Virginia. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the previous forecast. ..Wendt.. 03/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024/ ...MO/IL to VA through tonight... A largely east-west oriented baroclinic zone will drift slowly northward as a warm front across MO/IL, well east of lee cyclogenesis across eastern CO. The potential for surface-based storms along the warm front appears questionable, given lingering capping with a relatively warm elevated mixed layer atop the moistening boundary layer. Much of the convection through the period will likely be elevated atop the frontal surface and tied to low-level warm advection. There will be sufficient cloud-layer shear for supercells capable of producing large hail, but confidence in specific storm development this afternoon (see MD #315 for additional information) versus tonight is relatively low. Thus, will maintain the conditional outlook area with few changes. Farther east, some convection is ongoing in a loose cluster across southern WV in association with weak low-level warm advection. Some expansion of the weakly unstable warm sector is expected into VA through the afternoon, and a couple of storms could persist along this corridor to near the VA/NC by mid-late afternoon. There will be a conditional threat for a somewhat high-based supercell or two with an accompanying threat for isolated large hail and/or damaging outflow gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NORTHERN MO TO CENTRAL IL/IN... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce large hail later this afternoon into tonight from northern Missouri to central Illinois/Indiana. Isolated large hail and/or wind damage may also occur this afternoon from southern West Virginia into south central Virginia. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the previous forecast. ..Wendt.. 03/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024/ ...MO/IL to VA through tonight... A largely east-west oriented baroclinic zone will drift slowly northward as a warm front across MO/IL, well east of lee cyclogenesis across eastern CO. The potential for surface-based storms along the warm front appears questionable, given lingering capping with a relatively warm elevated mixed layer atop the moistening boundary layer. Much of the convection through the period will likely be elevated atop the frontal surface and tied to low-level warm advection. There will be sufficient cloud-layer shear for supercells capable of producing large hail, but confidence in specific storm development this afternoon (see MD #315 for additional information) versus tonight is relatively low. Thus, will maintain the conditional outlook area with few changes. Farther east, some convection is ongoing in a loose cluster across southern WV in association with weak low-level warm advection. Some expansion of the weakly unstable warm sector is expected into VA through the afternoon, and a couple of storms could persist along this corridor to near the VA/NC by mid-late afternoon. There will be a conditional threat for a somewhat high-based supercell or two with an accompanying threat for isolated large hail and/or damaging outflow gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NORTHERN MO TO CENTRAL IL/IN... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce large hail later this afternoon into tonight from northern Missouri to central Illinois/Indiana. Isolated large hail and/or wind damage may also occur this afternoon from southern West Virginia into south central Virginia. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the previous forecast. ..Wendt.. 03/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024/ ...MO/IL to VA through tonight... A largely east-west oriented baroclinic zone will drift slowly northward as a warm front across MO/IL, well east of lee cyclogenesis across eastern CO. The potential for surface-based storms along the warm front appears questionable, given lingering capping with a relatively warm elevated mixed layer atop the moistening boundary layer. Much of the convection through the period will likely be elevated atop the frontal surface and tied to low-level warm advection. There will be sufficient cloud-layer shear for supercells capable of producing large hail, but confidence in specific storm development this afternoon (see MD #315 for additional information) versus tonight is relatively low. Thus, will maintain the conditional outlook area with few changes. Farther east, some convection is ongoing in a loose cluster across southern WV in association with weak low-level warm advection. Some expansion of the weakly unstable warm sector is expected into VA through the afternoon, and a couple of storms could persist along this corridor to near the VA/NC by mid-late afternoon. There will be a conditional threat for a somewhat high-based supercell or two with an accompanying threat for isolated large hail and/or damaging outflow gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NORTHERN MO TO CENTRAL IL/IN... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce large hail later this afternoon into tonight from northern Missouri to central Illinois/Indiana. Isolated large hail and/or wind damage may also occur this afternoon from southern West Virginia into south central Virginia. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the previous forecast. ..Wendt.. 03/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024/ ...MO/IL to VA through tonight... A largely east-west oriented baroclinic zone will drift slowly northward as a warm front across MO/IL, well east of lee cyclogenesis across eastern CO. The potential for surface-based storms along the warm front appears questionable, given lingering capping with a relatively warm elevated mixed layer atop the moistening boundary layer. Much of the convection through the period will likely be elevated atop the frontal surface and tied to low-level warm advection. There will be sufficient cloud-layer shear for supercells capable of producing large hail, but confidence in specific storm development this afternoon (see MD #315 for additional information) versus tonight is relatively low. Thus, will maintain the conditional outlook area with few changes. Farther east, some convection is ongoing in a loose cluster across southern WV in association with weak low-level warm advection. Some expansion of the weakly unstable warm sector is expected into VA through the afternoon, and a couple of storms could persist along this corridor to near the VA/NC by mid-late afternoon. There will be a conditional threat for a somewhat high-based supercell or two with an accompanying threat for isolated large hail and/or damaging outflow gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NORTHERN MO TO CENTRAL IL/IN... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce large hail later this afternoon into tonight from northern Missouri to central Illinois/Indiana. Isolated large hail and/or wind damage may also occur this afternoon from southern West Virginia into south central Virginia. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the previous forecast. ..Wendt.. 03/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024/ ...MO/IL to VA through tonight... A largely east-west oriented baroclinic zone will drift slowly northward as a warm front across MO/IL, well east of lee cyclogenesis across eastern CO. The potential for surface-based storms along the warm front appears questionable, given lingering capping with a relatively warm elevated mixed layer atop the moistening boundary layer. Much of the convection through the period will likely be elevated atop the frontal surface and tied to low-level warm advection. There will be sufficient cloud-layer shear for supercells capable of producing large hail, but confidence in specific storm development this afternoon (see MD #315 for additional information) versus tonight is relatively low. Thus, will maintain the conditional outlook area with few changes. Farther east, some convection is ongoing in a loose cluster across southern WV in association with weak low-level warm advection. Some expansion of the weakly unstable warm sector is expected into VA through the afternoon, and a couple of storms could persist along this corridor to near the VA/NC by mid-late afternoon. There will be a conditional threat for a somewhat high-based supercell or two with an accompanying threat for isolated large hail and/or damaging outflow gusts. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS-PECOS... No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Monday, a mid-level shortwave trough will move slowly east across the southern Plains. The mid-level jet streak associated with this trough will be across the southern High Plains. Beneath this strongest jet streak, a deeply mixed airmass will be present and very strong surface winds (30+ mph) are expected. However, relative humidity has more uncertainty. Relative humidity is expected to be less than 20 percent across much of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas to the Big Bend. This is where the Critical delineation is present. Farther north, the forecast is more uncertain, based on the position of the surface low, winds may be strong or quite weak across portions of the Texas Panhandle. In addition, cool and moist air (potentially some precipitation) is expected to move in from the northwest. This will limit fire weather concerns as well. Therefore, uncertainty is high and the forecast may change, but the current Elevated and Critical areas are most representative of the latest forecast information. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more