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WW 64 SEVERE TSTM KS 011840Z - 020200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 64 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 140 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kansas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across southeast and eastern Kansas, with the potential for supercells with isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) and damaging gusts of 60-70 mph. The tornado threat will remain somewhat limited, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, especially later this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles south southwest of Chanute KS to 20 miles northwest of Topeka KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0068 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 68 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..04/01/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 68 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-013-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-041-045-049-051-061-079- 083-101-115-117-119-121-133-135-137-139-149-159-163-167-171-173- 189-012340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DOUGLAS EDGAR EFFINGHAM FAYETTE GREENE JASPER JERSEY LAWRENCE MACON MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN MOULTRIE PIKE RICHLAND ST. CLAIR SANGAMON SCOTT SHELBY WASHINGTON MOC007-019-027-051-055-071-073-099-105-113-125-127-135-137-139- 151-161-163-169-173-183-189-205-219-221-510-012340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0068 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 68 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..04/01/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 68 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-013-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-041-045-049-051-061-079- 083-101-115-117-119-121-133-135-137-139-149-159-163-167-171-173- 189-012340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DOUGLAS EDGAR EFFINGHAM FAYETTE GREENE JASPER JERSEY LAWRENCE MACON MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN MOULTRIE PIKE RICHLAND ST. CLAIR SANGAMON SCOTT SHELBY WASHINGTON MOC007-019-027-051-055-071-073-099-105-113-125-127-135-137-139- 151-161-163-169-173-183-189-205-219-221-510-012340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 68 TORNADO IL MO 012150Z - 020500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 68 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 450 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central Illinois Eastern Missouri * Effective this Monday afternoon from 450 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon and evening, building eastward along a boundary across central Missouri/Illinois. Supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles southwest of Jefferson City MO to 35 miles south of Danville IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 64...WW 65...WW 66...WW 67... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0067 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 67 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0327 ..WEINMAN..04/01/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 67 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-011-021-037-043-091-103-107-121-209-012340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD DONIPHAN JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN MIAMI WYANDOTTE MOC003-009-011-013-015-021-025-029-033-037-039-041-043-047-049- 053-057-059-061-063-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-095-097-101- 107-109-115-117-119-121-131-141-145-147-159-165-167-175-177-185- 195-209-213-217-227-012340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BARRY BARTON BATES BENTON BUCHANAN CALDWELL CAMDEN CARROLL CASS CEDAR CHARITON CHRISTIAN CLAY CLINTON Read more

WW 0067 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 67 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0327 ..WEINMAN..04/01/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 67 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-011-021-037-043-091-103-107-121-209-012340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD DONIPHAN JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN MIAMI WYANDOTTE MOC003-009-011-013-015-021-025-029-033-037-039-041-043-047-049- 053-057-059-061-063-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-095-097-101- 107-109-115-117-119-121-131-141-145-147-159-165-167-175-177-185- 195-209-213-217-227-012340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BARRY BARTON BATES BENTON BUCHANAN CALDWELL CAMDEN CARROLL CASS CEDAR CHARITON CHRISTIAN CLAY CLINTON Read more

WW 67 TORNADO KS MO 012025Z - 020400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 67 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Extreme northeast Kansas Western Missouri * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe storm development is expected this afternoon into this evening into western Missouri. The initial storms will likely be supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inch diameter). The threat for a few tornadoes will increase gradually through the evening with both the supercells and any larger clusters that evolve, and a strong (EF2) tornado or two will be possible. The threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph) will also increase later this evening as storms grow upscale into clusters/line segments. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Chillicothe MO to 25 miles south of Monett MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 64...WW 65...WW 66... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0066 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 66 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0326 ..WEINMAN..04/01/24 ATTN...WFO...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 66 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-081-083-093-095-133-143-151-207-221-235-253-353-363- 367-399-417-429-431-441-447-451-012340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO EASTLAND ERATH FISHER HASKELL HOOD IRION JONES NOLAN PALO PINTO PARKER RUNNELS SHACKELFORD STEPHENS STERLING TAYLOR THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0065 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 65 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..04/01/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 65 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-011-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-035-037-047-049-051- 053-063-067-069-071-073-075-081-083-085-087-091-095-097-099-101- 103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-131-133-137-141- 143-145-147-149-012340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BLAINE BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CRAIG CREEK GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY GRANT HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KAY KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MARSHALL MAYES MURRAY MUSKOGEE NOBLE NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON WASHITA Read more

WW 0064 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 64 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S PNC TO 10 WNW FLV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0327 ..WEINMAN..04/01/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 64 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-019-031-035-045-049-059-073-099-125-133-205-207- 012340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON CHAUTAUQUA COFFEY COWLEY DOUGLAS ELK FRANKLIN GREENWOOD LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0325 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MISSOURI INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0325 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern Missouri into parts of central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 012050Z - 012245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A tornado watch may be needed within the next 1-2 hours as additional storms may develop in east-central Missouri/central Illinois. The environment is supportive of large/very-large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is expected to increase this evening as low-level shear increases near the boundary. DISCUSSION...Cores within a broad area of precipitation have occasionally pulsed in intensity. Some recent CAM guidance suggest that additional storms will develop out of this activity within the next 2-3 hours. While current wind profiles are not overly supportive of tornadoes, storms will be near the warm front and low-level shear should improve this evening as 850 mb winds increase. Given the background environment and potential evolution of this activity, a tornado watch will need to be considered. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 39299311 39839092 39848842 39538742 39128758 38238994 38109132 38389261 39299311 Read more

WW 0067 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 67 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..04/01/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 67 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-011-021-037-043-091-103-107-121-209-012240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD DONIPHAN JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN MIAMI WYANDOTTE MOC003-009-011-013-015-021-025-029-033-037-039-041-043-047-049- 053-057-059-061-063-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-095-097-101- 107-109-115-117-119-121-131-141-145-147-159-165-167-175-177-185- 195-209-213-217-227-012240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BARRY BARTON BATES BENTON BUCHANAN CALDWELL CAMDEN CARROLL CASS CEDAR CHARITON CHRISTIAN CLAY CLINTON COOPER DADE DALLAS DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY Read more

WW 0066 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 66 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..04/01/24 ATTN...WFO...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 66 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-081-083-093-095-133-143-151-207-221-235-253-353-363- 367-399-417-429-431-441-447-451-012240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO EASTLAND ERATH FISHER HASKELL HOOD IRION JONES NOLAN PALO PINTO PARKER RUNNELS SHACKELFORD STEPHENS STERLING TAYLOR THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0068 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW HUM TO 30 ESE MCB TO 40 E PIB TO 40 SE MEI. ..KERR..03/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...LCH...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-025-097-129-090040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN CLARKE MOBILE WASHINGTON LAC051-071-087-089-093-095-103-117-090040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE JEFFERSON ORLEANS ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY WASHINGTON MSC035-039-041-045-047-059-109-111-131-090040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FORREST GEORGE GREENE Read more

WW 0065 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 65 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..04/01/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 65 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-011-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-035-037-047-049-051- 053-063-067-069-071-073-075-081-083-085-087-091-095-097-099-101- 103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-131-133-137-141- 143-145-147-149-012240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BLAINE BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CRAIG CREEK GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY GRANT HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KAY KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MARSHALL MAYES MURRAY MUSKOGEE NOBLE NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON WASHITA Read more

WW 0064 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 64 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW EMP TO 20 N TOP. ..WEINMAN..04/01/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 64 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-015-017-019-031-035-045-049-059-073-087-099-111-125- 133-139-177-191-205-207-012240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COFFEY COWLEY DOUGLAS ELK FRANKLIN GREENWOOD JEFFERSON LABETTE LYON MONTGOMERY NEOSHO OSAGE SHAWNEE SUMNER WILSON WOODSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0323 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE/UPPER OHIO VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0323 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Areas affected...Portions of Middle/Upper Ohio Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 011946Z - 012145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Should storms develop/mature, large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Storm coverage may remain isolated this afternoon and the need for a watch is not certain. Convective trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Destabilization continues along/south of a warm front within the Ohio Valley vicinity. A few weak convective cores within southern Indiana continue eastward. These storms may be capable of small hail. Continued heating/warm advection within the frontal zone may lead to additional storms along the boundary. Effective shear of 40-50 kts and MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will mean potentially organized storms, should they mature. The main uncertainty is how intense these storms will become given neutral to modest mid-level height rises this afternoon. A watch is not anticipated in the short term, but convective trends will be monitored. A more substantial severe threat is expected later this evening/overnight. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... LAT...LON 37838298 37708422 37858556 37978682 38308760 39358750 39728640 39488323 39028139 38288144 37838298 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A large-scale upper-level trough will be positioned over the central CONUS on D3/Wed, with a high amplitude ridge positioned over the West. By D4/Thu another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast while the general upper-level pattern shifts east. Strong mid-level flow associated with this trough will begin overspreading the southern/central CONUS by D5/Fri and persist through D7/Sun. Thereafter, evolution of the upper-level pattern becomes more uncertain. D5/Fri - D7/Sun: Southern/Central High Plains: Medium-range guidance continues to depict agreement in the potential for multiple days of wide-spread fire-weather conditions across the Southern/Central High Plains and adjacent regions. The aforementioned strong southwesterly mid-level flow should persist atop boundary layer conditions that are well-mixed. This will promote sustained winds exceeding 20 mph and RH values falling below 15% each day. Fuels are presently at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread, with ERC values exceeding 90% in at least localized areas of the region. For this outlook, the 40% and 70% probabilities have been maintained on D5/Fri and D6/Sat, and 40% probabilities have been introduced for the region on D7/Sun. These delineations have been confined to the most probable areas for critical fire-weather potential based on depictions/spread in the medium-range guidance. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A large-scale upper-level trough will be positioned over the central CONUS on D3/Wed, with a high amplitude ridge positioned over the West. By D4/Thu another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast while the general upper-level pattern shifts east. Strong mid-level flow associated with this trough will begin overspreading the southern/central CONUS by D5/Fri and persist through D7/Sun. Thereafter, evolution of the upper-level pattern becomes more uncertain. D5/Fri - D7/Sun: Southern/Central High Plains: Medium-range guidance continues to depict agreement in the potential for multiple days of wide-spread fire-weather conditions across the Southern/Central High Plains and adjacent regions. The aforementioned strong southwesterly mid-level flow should persist atop boundary layer conditions that are well-mixed. This will promote sustained winds exceeding 20 mph and RH values falling below 15% each day. Fuels are presently at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread, with ERC values exceeding 90% in at least localized areas of the region. For this outlook, the 40% and 70% probabilities have been maintained on D5/Fri and D6/Sat, and 40% probabilities have been introduced for the region on D7/Sun. These delineations have been confined to the most probable areas for critical fire-weather potential based on depictions/spread in the medium-range guidance. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A large-scale upper-level trough will be positioned over the central CONUS on D3/Wed, with a high amplitude ridge positioned over the West. By D4/Thu another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast while the general upper-level pattern shifts east. Strong mid-level flow associated with this trough will begin overspreading the southern/central CONUS by D5/Fri and persist through D7/Sun. Thereafter, evolution of the upper-level pattern becomes more uncertain. D5/Fri - D7/Sun: Southern/Central High Plains: Medium-range guidance continues to depict agreement in the potential for multiple days of wide-spread fire-weather conditions across the Southern/Central High Plains and adjacent regions. The aforementioned strong southwesterly mid-level flow should persist atop boundary layer conditions that are well-mixed. This will promote sustained winds exceeding 20 mph and RH values falling below 15% each day. Fuels are presently at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread, with ERC values exceeding 90% in at least localized areas of the region. For this outlook, the 40% and 70% probabilities have been maintained on D5/Fri and D6/Sat, and 40% probabilities have been introduced for the region on D7/Sun. These delineations have been confined to the most probable areas for critical fire-weather potential based on depictions/spread in the medium-range guidance. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more