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WW 0109 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 109 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW MGW TO 10 SSE EKN TO 25 SSW DCA TO 30 NNE NHK TO 50 ENE SBY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0444 ..SQUITIERI..04/15/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...RNK...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 109 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC009-017-019-037-039-045-047-152240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALVERT CHARLES DORCHESTER ST. MARYS SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER VAC001-003-005-007-009-011-015-017-019-021-023-025-029-031-033- 035-036-037-041-045-047-049-053-057-063-065-067-071-073-075-077- 079-081-083-085-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-103-109-111-113- 115-117-119-121-125-127-131-133-135-137-141-143-145-147-149-155- 159-161-163-165-173-175-177-179-181-183-185-193-197-199-530-540- 550-570-580-590-595-620-630-640-650-660-670-678-680-690-700-710- 730-735-740-750-760-770-775-790-800-810-820-830-152240- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ACCOMACK ALBEMARLE ALLEGHANY AMELIA AMHERST APPOMATTOX Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A shortwave trough lifting into the Great Lakes region mid to late this week will continue to weaken while another shortwave will pivot through the northern Rockies into the northern Plains by late in the week. The secondary trough is forecast to intensify across the Great Lakes into the Northeast during the weekend. Across the southern tier of the U.S., flow aloft will remain relatively zonal through the period. At the surface, a weak lee cyclone is expected to develop in southeast Colorado on Wednesday. As this moves eastward along with the upper trough to the north, cooler air will filter into the southern Plains. A secondary surge of cooler air will push into the northern Gulf during the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to perhaps locally critical conditions appear possible as the southeastern Colorado low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap very low RH of around 10-15%. Fire weather concerns will be somewhat localized near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low. ...Western/Central New Mexico... As the back door cold front pushes against the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend, generally dry conditions are expected across the Southwest. As fuels are continuing to dry within New Mexico, it is possible some fire weather risk will exist for central and western parts of the state. This would most likely occur on Saturday when a low-amplitude trough approaches from the west. Model and fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A shortwave trough lifting into the Great Lakes region mid to late this week will continue to weaken while another shortwave will pivot through the northern Rockies into the northern Plains by late in the week. The secondary trough is forecast to intensify across the Great Lakes into the Northeast during the weekend. Across the southern tier of the U.S., flow aloft will remain relatively zonal through the period. At the surface, a weak lee cyclone is expected to develop in southeast Colorado on Wednesday. As this moves eastward along with the upper trough to the north, cooler air will filter into the southern Plains. A secondary surge of cooler air will push into the northern Gulf during the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to perhaps locally critical conditions appear possible as the southeastern Colorado low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap very low RH of around 10-15%. Fire weather concerns will be somewhat localized near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low. ...Western/Central New Mexico... As the back door cold front pushes against the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend, generally dry conditions are expected across the Southwest. As fuels are continuing to dry within New Mexico, it is possible some fire weather risk will exist for central and western parts of the state. This would most likely occur on Saturday when a low-amplitude trough approaches from the west. Model and fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A shortwave trough lifting into the Great Lakes region mid to late this week will continue to weaken while another shortwave will pivot through the northern Rockies into the northern Plains by late in the week. The secondary trough is forecast to intensify across the Great Lakes into the Northeast during the weekend. Across the southern tier of the U.S., flow aloft will remain relatively zonal through the period. At the surface, a weak lee cyclone is expected to develop in southeast Colorado on Wednesday. As this moves eastward along with the upper trough to the north, cooler air will filter into the southern Plains. A secondary surge of cooler air will push into the northern Gulf during the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to perhaps locally critical conditions appear possible as the southeastern Colorado low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap very low RH of around 10-15%. Fire weather concerns will be somewhat localized near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low. ...Western/Central New Mexico... As the back door cold front pushes against the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend, generally dry conditions are expected across the Southwest. As fuels are continuing to dry within New Mexico, it is possible some fire weather risk will exist for central and western parts of the state. This would most likely occur on Saturday when a low-amplitude trough approaches from the west. Model and fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A shortwave trough lifting into the Great Lakes region mid to late this week will continue to weaken while another shortwave will pivot through the northern Rockies into the northern Plains by late in the week. The secondary trough is forecast to intensify across the Great Lakes into the Northeast during the weekend. Across the southern tier of the U.S., flow aloft will remain relatively zonal through the period. At the surface, a weak lee cyclone is expected to develop in southeast Colorado on Wednesday. As this moves eastward along with the upper trough to the north, cooler air will filter into the southern Plains. A secondary surge of cooler air will push into the northern Gulf during the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to perhaps locally critical conditions appear possible as the southeastern Colorado low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap very low RH of around 10-15%. Fire weather concerns will be somewhat localized near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low. ...Western/Central New Mexico... As the back door cold front pushes against the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend, generally dry conditions are expected across the Southwest. As fuels are continuing to dry within New Mexico, it is possible some fire weather risk will exist for central and western parts of the state. This would most likely occur on Saturday when a low-amplitude trough approaches from the west. Model and fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A shortwave trough lifting into the Great Lakes region mid to late this week will continue to weaken while another shortwave will pivot through the northern Rockies into the northern Plains by late in the week. The secondary trough is forecast to intensify across the Great Lakes into the Northeast during the weekend. Across the southern tier of the U.S., flow aloft will remain relatively zonal through the period. At the surface, a weak lee cyclone is expected to develop in southeast Colorado on Wednesday. As this moves eastward along with the upper trough to the north, cooler air will filter into the southern Plains. A secondary surge of cooler air will push into the northern Gulf during the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to perhaps locally critical conditions appear possible as the southeastern Colorado low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap very low RH of around 10-15%. Fire weather concerns will be somewhat localized near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low. ...Western/Central New Mexico... As the back door cold front pushes against the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend, generally dry conditions are expected across the Southwest. As fuels are continuing to dry within New Mexico, it is possible some fire weather risk will exist for central and western parts of the state. This would most likely occur on Saturday when a low-amplitude trough approaches from the west. Model and fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A shortwave trough lifting into the Great Lakes region mid to late this week will continue to weaken while another shortwave will pivot through the northern Rockies into the northern Plains by late in the week. The secondary trough is forecast to intensify across the Great Lakes into the Northeast during the weekend. Across the southern tier of the U.S., flow aloft will remain relatively zonal through the period. At the surface, a weak lee cyclone is expected to develop in southeast Colorado on Wednesday. As this moves eastward along with the upper trough to the north, cooler air will filter into the southern Plains. A secondary surge of cooler air will push into the northern Gulf during the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to perhaps locally critical conditions appear possible as the southeastern Colorado low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap very low RH of around 10-15%. Fire weather concerns will be somewhat localized near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low. ...Western/Central New Mexico... As the back door cold front pushes against the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend, generally dry conditions are expected across the Southwest. As fuels are continuing to dry within New Mexico, it is possible some fire weather risk will exist for central and western parts of the state. This would most likely occur on Saturday when a low-amplitude trough approaches from the west. Model and fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A shortwave trough lifting into the Great Lakes region mid to late this week will continue to weaken while another shortwave will pivot through the northern Rockies into the northern Plains by late in the week. The secondary trough is forecast to intensify across the Great Lakes into the Northeast during the weekend. Across the southern tier of the U.S., flow aloft will remain relatively zonal through the period. At the surface, a weak lee cyclone is expected to develop in southeast Colorado on Wednesday. As this moves eastward along with the upper trough to the north, cooler air will filter into the southern Plains. A secondary surge of cooler air will push into the northern Gulf during the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to perhaps locally critical conditions appear possible as the southeastern Colorado low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap very low RH of around 10-15%. Fire weather concerns will be somewhat localized near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low. ...Western/Central New Mexico... As the back door cold front pushes against the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend, generally dry conditions are expected across the Southwest. As fuels are continuing to dry within New Mexico, it is possible some fire weather risk will exist for central and western parts of the state. This would most likely occur on Saturday when a low-amplitude trough approaches from the west. Model and fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A shortwave trough lifting into the Great Lakes region mid to late this week will continue to weaken while another shortwave will pivot through the northern Rockies into the northern Plains by late in the week. The secondary trough is forecast to intensify across the Great Lakes into the Northeast during the weekend. Across the southern tier of the U.S., flow aloft will remain relatively zonal through the period. At the surface, a weak lee cyclone is expected to develop in southeast Colorado on Wednesday. As this moves eastward along with the upper trough to the north, cooler air will filter into the southern Plains. A secondary surge of cooler air will push into the northern Gulf during the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to perhaps locally critical conditions appear possible as the southeastern Colorado low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap very low RH of around 10-15%. Fire weather concerns will be somewhat localized near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low. ...Western/Central New Mexico... As the back door cold front pushes against the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend, generally dry conditions are expected across the Southwest. As fuels are continuing to dry within New Mexico, it is possible some fire weather risk will exist for central and western parts of the state. This would most likely occur on Saturday when a low-amplitude trough approaches from the west. Model and fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A shortwave trough lifting into the Great Lakes region mid to late this week will continue to weaken while another shortwave will pivot through the northern Rockies into the northern Plains by late in the week. The secondary trough is forecast to intensify across the Great Lakes into the Northeast during the weekend. Across the southern tier of the U.S., flow aloft will remain relatively zonal through the period. At the surface, a weak lee cyclone is expected to develop in southeast Colorado on Wednesday. As this moves eastward along with the upper trough to the north, cooler air will filter into the southern Plains. A secondary surge of cooler air will push into the northern Gulf during the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to perhaps locally critical conditions appear possible as the southeastern Colorado low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap very low RH of around 10-15%. Fire weather concerns will be somewhat localized near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low. ...Western/Central New Mexico... As the back door cold front pushes against the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend, generally dry conditions are expected across the Southwest. As fuels are continuing to dry within New Mexico, it is possible some fire weather risk will exist for central and western parts of the state. This would most likely occur on Saturday when a low-amplitude trough approaches from the west. Model and fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A shortwave trough lifting into the Great Lakes region mid to late this week will continue to weaken while another shortwave will pivot through the northern Rockies into the northern Plains by late in the week. The secondary trough is forecast to intensify across the Great Lakes into the Northeast during the weekend. Across the southern tier of the U.S., flow aloft will remain relatively zonal through the period. At the surface, a weak lee cyclone is expected to develop in southeast Colorado on Wednesday. As this moves eastward along with the upper trough to the north, cooler air will filter into the southern Plains. A secondary surge of cooler air will push into the northern Gulf during the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to perhaps locally critical conditions appear possible as the southeastern Colorado low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap very low RH of around 10-15%. Fire weather concerns will be somewhat localized near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low. ...Western/Central New Mexico... As the back door cold front pushes against the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend, generally dry conditions are expected across the Southwest. As fuels are continuing to dry within New Mexico, it is possible some fire weather risk will exist for central and western parts of the state. This would most likely occur on Saturday when a low-amplitude trough approaches from the west. Model and fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A shortwave trough lifting into the Great Lakes region mid to late this week will continue to weaken while another shortwave will pivot through the northern Rockies into the northern Plains by late in the week. The secondary trough is forecast to intensify across the Great Lakes into the Northeast during the weekend. Across the southern tier of the U.S., flow aloft will remain relatively zonal through the period. At the surface, a weak lee cyclone is expected to develop in southeast Colorado on Wednesday. As this moves eastward along with the upper trough to the north, cooler air will filter into the southern Plains. A secondary surge of cooler air will push into the northern Gulf during the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to perhaps locally critical conditions appear possible as the southeastern Colorado low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap very low RH of around 10-15%. Fire weather concerns will be somewhat localized near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low. ...Western/Central New Mexico... As the back door cold front pushes against the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend, generally dry conditions are expected across the Southwest. As fuels are continuing to dry within New Mexico, it is possible some fire weather risk will exist for central and western parts of the state. This would most likely occur on Saturday when a low-amplitude trough approaches from the west. Model and fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A shortwave trough lifting into the Great Lakes region mid to late this week will continue to weaken while another shortwave will pivot through the northern Rockies into the northern Plains by late in the week. The secondary trough is forecast to intensify across the Great Lakes into the Northeast during the weekend. Across the southern tier of the U.S., flow aloft will remain relatively zonal through the period. At the surface, a weak lee cyclone is expected to develop in southeast Colorado on Wednesday. As this moves eastward along with the upper trough to the north, cooler air will filter into the southern Plains. A secondary surge of cooler air will push into the northern Gulf during the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to perhaps locally critical conditions appear possible as the southeastern Colorado low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap very low RH of around 10-15%. Fire weather concerns will be somewhat localized near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low. ...Western/Central New Mexico... As the back door cold front pushes against the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend, generally dry conditions are expected across the Southwest. As fuels are continuing to dry within New Mexico, it is possible some fire weather risk will exist for central and western parts of the state. This would most likely occur on Saturday when a low-amplitude trough approaches from the west. Model and fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A shortwave trough lifting into the Great Lakes region mid to late this week will continue to weaken while another shortwave will pivot through the northern Rockies into the northern Plains by late in the week. The secondary trough is forecast to intensify across the Great Lakes into the Northeast during the weekend. Across the southern tier of the U.S., flow aloft will remain relatively zonal through the period. At the surface, a weak lee cyclone is expected to develop in southeast Colorado on Wednesday. As this moves eastward along with the upper trough to the north, cooler air will filter into the southern Plains. A secondary surge of cooler air will push into the northern Gulf during the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to perhaps locally critical conditions appear possible as the southeastern Colorado low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap very low RH of around 10-15%. Fire weather concerns will be somewhat localized near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low. ...Western/Central New Mexico... As the back door cold front pushes against the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend, generally dry conditions are expected across the Southwest. As fuels are continuing to dry within New Mexico, it is possible some fire weather risk will exist for central and western parts of the state. This would most likely occur on Saturday when a low-amplitude trough approaches from the west. Model and fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A shortwave trough lifting into the Great Lakes region mid to late this week will continue to weaken while another shortwave will pivot through the northern Rockies into the northern Plains by late in the week. The secondary trough is forecast to intensify across the Great Lakes into the Northeast during the weekend. Across the southern tier of the U.S., flow aloft will remain relatively zonal through the period. At the surface, a weak lee cyclone is expected to develop in southeast Colorado on Wednesday. As this moves eastward along with the upper trough to the north, cooler air will filter into the southern Plains. A secondary surge of cooler air will push into the northern Gulf during the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to perhaps locally critical conditions appear possible as the southeastern Colorado low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap very low RH of around 10-15%. Fire weather concerns will be somewhat localized near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low. ...Western/Central New Mexico... As the back door cold front pushes against the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend, generally dry conditions are expected across the Southwest. As fuels are continuing to dry within New Mexico, it is possible some fire weather risk will exist for central and western parts of the state. This would most likely occur on Saturday when a low-amplitude trough approaches from the west. Model and fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A shortwave trough lifting into the Great Lakes region mid to late this week will continue to weaken while another shortwave will pivot through the northern Rockies into the northern Plains by late in the week. The secondary trough is forecast to intensify across the Great Lakes into the Northeast during the weekend. Across the southern tier of the U.S., flow aloft will remain relatively zonal through the period. At the surface, a weak lee cyclone is expected to develop in southeast Colorado on Wednesday. As this moves eastward along with the upper trough to the north, cooler air will filter into the southern Plains. A secondary surge of cooler air will push into the northern Gulf during the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to perhaps locally critical conditions appear possible as the southeastern Colorado low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap very low RH of around 10-15%. Fire weather concerns will be somewhat localized near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low. ...Western/Central New Mexico... As the back door cold front pushes against the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend, generally dry conditions are expected across the Southwest. As fuels are continuing to dry within New Mexico, it is possible some fire weather risk will exist for central and western parts of the state. This would most likely occur on Saturday when a low-amplitude trough approaches from the west. Model and fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A shortwave trough lifting into the Great Lakes region mid to late this week will continue to weaken while another shortwave will pivot through the northern Rockies into the northern Plains by late in the week. The secondary trough is forecast to intensify across the Great Lakes into the Northeast during the weekend. Across the southern tier of the U.S., flow aloft will remain relatively zonal through the period. At the surface, a weak lee cyclone is expected to develop in southeast Colorado on Wednesday. As this moves eastward along with the upper trough to the north, cooler air will filter into the southern Plains. A secondary surge of cooler air will push into the northern Gulf during the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to perhaps locally critical conditions appear possible as the southeastern Colorado low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap very low RH of around 10-15%. Fire weather concerns will be somewhat localized near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low. ...Western/Central New Mexico... As the back door cold front pushes against the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend, generally dry conditions are expected across the Southwest. As fuels are continuing to dry within New Mexico, it is possible some fire weather risk will exist for central and western parts of the state. This would most likely occur on Saturday when a low-amplitude trough approaches from the west. Model and fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A shortwave trough lifting into the Great Lakes region mid to late this week will continue to weaken while another shortwave will pivot through the northern Rockies into the northern Plains by late in the week. The secondary trough is forecast to intensify across the Great Lakes into the Northeast during the weekend. Across the southern tier of the U.S., flow aloft will remain relatively zonal through the period. At the surface, a weak lee cyclone is expected to develop in southeast Colorado on Wednesday. As this moves eastward along with the upper trough to the north, cooler air will filter into the southern Plains. A secondary surge of cooler air will push into the northern Gulf during the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to perhaps locally critical conditions appear possible as the southeastern Colorado low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap very low RH of around 10-15%. Fire weather concerns will be somewhat localized near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low. ...Western/Central New Mexico... As the back door cold front pushes against the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend, generally dry conditions are expected across the Southwest. As fuels are continuing to dry within New Mexico, it is possible some fire weather risk will exist for central and western parts of the state. This would most likely occur on Saturday when a low-amplitude trough approaches from the west. Model and fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A shortwave trough lifting into the Great Lakes region mid to late this week will continue to weaken while another shortwave will pivot through the northern Rockies into the northern Plains by late in the week. The secondary trough is forecast to intensify across the Great Lakes into the Northeast during the weekend. Across the southern tier of the U.S., flow aloft will remain relatively zonal through the period. At the surface, a weak lee cyclone is expected to develop in southeast Colorado on Wednesday. As this moves eastward along with the upper trough to the north, cooler air will filter into the southern Plains. A secondary surge of cooler air will push into the northern Gulf during the weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to perhaps locally critical conditions appear possible as the southeastern Colorado low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap very low RH of around 10-15%. Fire weather concerns will be somewhat localized near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low. ...Western/Central New Mexico... As the back door cold front pushes against the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend, generally dry conditions are expected across the Southwest. As fuels are continuing to dry within New Mexico, it is possible some fire weather risk will exist for central and western parts of the state. This would most likely occur on Saturday when a low-amplitude trough approaches from the west. Model and fuel trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0442 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0442 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Areas affected...Southwest South Dakota and far northern Nebraska. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 151930Z - 152100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms development is possible within the hour across southwest South Dakota. Additional supercell development is expected later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Temperatures have warmed into the low 80s across southwest South Dakota which, despite the dry airmass, has led to moderate destabilization. Visible satellite shows a few cumulus clusters near the Badlands, moving northwest. Most CAM guidance suggests storm development much later this afternoon/early evening, but satellite trends suggest convective initiation may occur within the next hour. If isolated severe storms develop, a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed soon. Otherwise, a watch is more likely late this afternoon/early evening when stronger lift overspreads the region and more widespread thunderstorm development occurs. Strongly veered wind profiles will support supercell storm mode with large hail, and given the nearly 50 degree dewpoint depressions and inverted-V soundings, severe wind gusts will also be possible. ..Bentley/Smith.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 43180400 44020420 44470407 44230206 43730031 43289982 42590027 42310137 42570268 43180400 Read more