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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today, especially across northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are expected. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks and Mid-South. ...Midwest/Middle Mississippi Valley... Regenerative scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to occur across western/northern Missouri into much of Iowa at late morning, originating with a warm sector that narrows with north-northwestward extent into southern Iowa and far east/northeast Nebraska in vicinity of the surface low. Even while warm-sector cloud breaks have been limited, steady early-spring heating and low-level moistening is occurring with surface dewpoints rising through the lower 60s F. This development coincides with an intense/cyclonically curved 90+ kt polar jet and a low-level jet that will remain diurnally strong (40+ kt). Modest cloud breaks aside, destabilization will be further aided by a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough/low. Scenario supports a risk for supercells especially across northern Missouri into southern/eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in hail production, with a few golf ball or 2+ inch diameter stones possible with the more robust cores. Tornadoes will also be a concern, as the enhanced boundary-layer flow and enlarged/curved hodographs associated with the low-level jet will aid in updraft rotation. The main tornado potential is still expected to be focused along/near the warm front in southern/eastern Iowa where the stronger low-level shear is forecast. A strong (EF2+) tornado is possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds are otherwise expected regionally. Farther south toward the Ozarks and Mid-South, a potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms remains apparent into this evening, with a moist/confluent regime near/ahead of the eastward-advancing front. Mid-level lapse rates will remain limited. However, steady low-level moistening will tend to counteract a tendency for nocturnal boundary cooling, netting a scenario with limited warm-sector inhibition tonight, supporting the possibility of supercells capable of all severe hazards including a tornado risk, even if severe storms remain relatively isolated overall. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 04/16/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper low ejecting eastward over the plains will rapidly lift north as it deepens today. Strong mid-level flow associated with the low will gradually weaken from west to east as the subtropical jet shifts north with the low. At the surface, a Pacific front/dryline will mix eastward with gusty winds likely behind it over the southern Plains. A secondary cold front will also move south over the Plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the southern High Plains. ..Southern Plains... Winds aloft will slowly diminish through the day as the upper low moves away to the northeast. Still, persistent downslope westerly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While overlap of the strongest winds and lowest humidity is expected to be limited in duration and spatial extent, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS, OK and TX during the afternoon. Gusty winds near 20 mph and lower humidity will remain possible behind the Pacific front/dryline as it moves eastward. However, widespread cloud cover and only modestly dry surface conditions are expected. The limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ...Northern High Plains... Gusty downslope winds are likely over the northern Rockies and adjacent plains on the backside of the departing low as it moves into the Midwest. While not overly warm in the post-frontal environment, afternoon RH values below 25% are possible along with gusty winds of 15-20 mph. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, area fuels appear mostly unreceptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather conditions will remain more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0116 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0116 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Apr 16 14:46:02 UTC 2024.

MD 0457 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF IA INTO NORTHERN MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0457 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0850 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Areas affected...portions of IA into northern MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 161350Z - 161445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms ongoing across far eastern Kansas into northwest Missouri will likely continue to shift northeast through the morning. Severe potential may increase gradually through the morning downstream across northern Missouri and southern Iowa. Area being monitored for watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms tracking northeast across eastern KS/northwest MO ahead of a surface cold front are expected to continue through the morning. The downstream airmass remains at least weakly capped given cloud cover and limited heating. Ongoing activity is likely sub-severe at this point, though may produce gusty winds 40-50 mph given recent obs of 41 kt at STJ and 39 kt at EVU. With time and additional destabilization, convection may intensify and become severe, though the northern extent of convection will also be outpacing higher-quality moisture/warmer temperatures as storms lift northeast into IA (surface dewpoints in the 50s F). Additional convection is expected to develop with southward extent into northern MO. This area is currently experiencing somewhat better heating through broken cloudiness. This may allow for greater destabilization given better boundary-layer moisture. The overall expectation is that a line of storms will develop north to south across IA into northern MO through the morning. This activity will have potential to produce severe gusts and a couple of tornadoes. Additional severe potential may develop later this afternoon in the wake of this initial morning activity if airmass recovery can occur. A watch will likely be needed in the next hour or so. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39509570 41579564 42179444 42249224 41719159 40309139 39009163 38689181 38489220 38319326 38539450 39019524 39379568 39509570 Read more