Aggregator

WW 0120 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 120 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE MLI TO 25 SW RFD TO 10 N RFD TO 10 SE MSN. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 120 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 17/03Z. ..KERR..04/17/24 ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 120 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-037-099-103-141-201-170300- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE DE KALB LA SALLE LEE OGLE WINNEBAGO WIC055-105-127-170300- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEFFERSON ROCK WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 120 TORNADO IL WI 162250Z - 170300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 120 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 550 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Illinois Southern Wisconsin * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 550 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered storm clusters and a couple of supercells will be possible this evening into north central Illinois and south central Wisconsin near a surface warm front. A couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter will all be possible through late evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 25 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north of Janesville WI to 65 miles south southwest of Rockford IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 116...WW 117...WW 118...WW 119... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Thompson Read more

MD 0468 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 117...120... FOR PATS OF FAR EASTERN IOWA...CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0468 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Areas affected...pats of far eastern Iowa...central/northern Illinois...and far southern Wisconsin Concerning...Tornado Watch 117...120... Valid 170032Z - 170200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 117, 120 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for damaging winds, hail, and a couple of tornadoes continues. Local extensions of WW117 may be needed across parts of IL this evening. DISCUSSION...The ongoing cluster of thunderstorms over eastern IA is expected to move into western IL and southern WI in the next hour. Buoyancy generally decreases with north/eastward extent as previous convection has overturned the air mass south of the nearly stationary warm front. Still, 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and strong deep-layer shear will allow storms to stay organized farther east into IL early this evening. Damaging winds appear to be the most likely threat given the linear mode, but hail and a couple of tornadoes will remain possible. Strong to severe storms may linger over parts of far southeast IA and into western/central IL after the planned 01z expiration of WW118. Convective trends will be monitored and a local extension could be necessary. ..Lyons/Thompson.. 04/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX... LAT...LON 39999044 40139091 40449118 40909124 42679041 43309008 43388972 43248926 43098872 42778858 42208880 41548893 41218906 40298949 39999044 Read more

WW 0120 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 120 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DBQ TO 15 WSW MSN TO 20 NW MSN. ..LYONS..04/17/24 ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 120 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-037-099-103-141-201-170240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE DE KALB LA SALLE LEE OGLE WINNEBAGO WIC025-045-105-170240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DANE GREEN ROCK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0467 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 119... FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0467 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0623 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Areas affected...Parts of northeast and east central Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 119... Valid 162323Z - 170130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 119 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for widely scattered additional strong to severe thunderstorm development near/east of Columbia and Jefferson City into areas northwest of St. Louis may still not be negligible. However, it appears to be lowering and likely to diminish further with the loss of daytime heating. If current trends continue, the watch may be cancelled within the next hour or so. DISCUSSION...In the wake of an initial band of weakening convection which has spread east of the Mississippi River, a moistening low-level environment has contributed to a corridor of increasing potential instability across much of northeastern into east central and south central Missouri. This is ahead of a remnant dryline advancing across/east of the Kirksville, Columbia and Springfield vicinities. Renewed discrete thunderstorm development is ongoing as far south as areas to the southeast of Kirksville, with additional deepening convection noted near/west of Columbia and Jefferson City. Some convection allowing guidance, including the High Resolution Rapid Refresh suggest further intensification of the southern convective development might still be possible, before spreading near/to the northwest of the Greater St. Louis area through 00-02Z. Based on the Rapid Refresh forecast track of a weakening 500 mb jet core, and associated mid-level subsidence/warming, this would seem be the southern/southeastern limit for stronger convective development. However, based on latest water vapor imagery, the potential for new storms south of the Hannibal/Quincy area is becoming low. ..Kerr.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39749206 40139168 40019060 39389045 38759092 38429160 38519240 39079239 39749206 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms will continue to impact the mid to upper Mississippi Valley this evening. The severe threat will affect the southwestern Great Lakes and lower Ohio Valley later tonight. Damaging wind gusts, isolated large hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes/Lower Ohio Valley... An upper-level low is evident on water vapor imagery over the mid Missouri Valley, with an associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet located in the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a 989 mb low is located in far northwest Iowa, with a corridor of maximized low-level moisture (surface dewpoints in the 60s F) in the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing along a zone of low-level convergence from northwest Illinois into southern Wisconsin. This line will likely be maintained, moving east-northeastward to the western shore of Lake Michigan by late this evening. Ahead of the line, the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. WSR-88D VWPs in central and northern Illinois have 0-6 km shear around 60 knots suggesting the severe threat will continue this evening. Wind damage will be likely with the more intense parts of the line, especially with the faster moving bowing segments. WSR-88D VWPs across central and northern Illinois have 0-3 storm-relative helicity generally in the 500 to 550 m2/s2 range. This will likely continue to support an isolated tornado threat with rotating storms that remain somewhat discrete, or with circulations within the line itself. Isolated large hail could also accompany the stronger rotating cells. Further south into the mid Mississippi Valley, the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range across much of eastern Missouri and Arkansas. The instability combined with 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 75 knot range will likely support a severe threat this evening. However, large-scale ascent is weaker this far south suggesting that storm coverage will be isolated. Any cell that can intensify near the instability axis this evening, could be associated with wind damage and hail. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms will continue to impact the mid to upper Mississippi Valley this evening. The severe threat will affect the southwestern Great Lakes and lower Ohio Valley later tonight. Damaging wind gusts, isolated large hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes/Lower Ohio Valley... An upper-level low is evident on water vapor imagery over the mid Missouri Valley, with an associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet located in the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a 989 mb low is located in far northwest Iowa, with a corridor of maximized low-level moisture (surface dewpoints in the 60s F) in the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing along a zone of low-level convergence from northwest Illinois into southern Wisconsin. This line will likely be maintained, moving east-northeastward to the western shore of Lake Michigan by late this evening. Ahead of the line, the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. WSR-88D VWPs in central and northern Illinois have 0-6 km shear around 60 knots suggesting the severe threat will continue this evening. Wind damage will be likely with the more intense parts of the line, especially with the faster moving bowing segments. WSR-88D VWPs across central and northern Illinois have 0-3 storm-relative helicity generally in the 500 to 550 m2/s2 range. This will likely continue to support an isolated tornado threat with rotating storms that remain somewhat discrete, or with circulations within the line itself. Isolated large hail could also accompany the stronger rotating cells. Further south into the mid Mississippi Valley, the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range across much of eastern Missouri and Arkansas. The instability combined with 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 75 knot range will likely support a severe threat this evening. However, large-scale ascent is weaker this far south suggesting that storm coverage will be isolated. Any cell that can intensify near the instability axis this evening, could be associated with wind damage and hail. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms will continue to impact the mid to upper Mississippi Valley this evening. The severe threat will affect the southwestern Great Lakes and lower Ohio Valley later tonight. Damaging wind gusts, isolated large hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes/Lower Ohio Valley... An upper-level low is evident on water vapor imagery over the mid Missouri Valley, with an associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet located in the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a 989 mb low is located in far northwest Iowa, with a corridor of maximized low-level moisture (surface dewpoints in the 60s F) in the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing along a zone of low-level convergence from northwest Illinois into southern Wisconsin. This line will likely be maintained, moving east-northeastward to the western shore of Lake Michigan by late this evening. Ahead of the line, the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. WSR-88D VWPs in central and northern Illinois have 0-6 km shear around 60 knots suggesting the severe threat will continue this evening. Wind damage will be likely with the more intense parts of the line, especially with the faster moving bowing segments. WSR-88D VWPs across central and northern Illinois have 0-3 storm-relative helicity generally in the 500 to 550 m2/s2 range. This will likely continue to support an isolated tornado threat with rotating storms that remain somewhat discrete, or with circulations within the line itself. Isolated large hail could also accompany the stronger rotating cells. Further south into the mid Mississippi Valley, the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range across much of eastern Missouri and Arkansas. The instability combined with 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 75 knot range will likely support a severe threat this evening. However, large-scale ascent is weaker this far south suggesting that storm coverage will be isolated. Any cell that can intensify near the instability axis this evening, could be associated with wind damage and hail. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms will continue to impact the mid to upper Mississippi Valley this evening. The severe threat will affect the southwestern Great Lakes and lower Ohio Valley later tonight. Damaging wind gusts, isolated large hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes/Lower Ohio Valley... An upper-level low is evident on water vapor imagery over the mid Missouri Valley, with an associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet located in the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a 989 mb low is located in far northwest Iowa, with a corridor of maximized low-level moisture (surface dewpoints in the 60s F) in the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing along a zone of low-level convergence from northwest Illinois into southern Wisconsin. This line will likely be maintained, moving east-northeastward to the western shore of Lake Michigan by late this evening. Ahead of the line, the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. WSR-88D VWPs in central and northern Illinois have 0-6 km shear around 60 knots suggesting the severe threat will continue this evening. Wind damage will be likely with the more intense parts of the line, especially with the faster moving bowing segments. WSR-88D VWPs across central and northern Illinois have 0-3 storm-relative helicity generally in the 500 to 550 m2/s2 range. This will likely continue to support an isolated tornado threat with rotating storms that remain somewhat discrete, or with circulations within the line itself. Isolated large hail could also accompany the stronger rotating cells. Further south into the mid Mississippi Valley, the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range across much of eastern Missouri and Arkansas. The instability combined with 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 75 knot range will likely support a severe threat this evening. However, large-scale ascent is weaker this far south suggesting that storm coverage will be isolated. Any cell that can intensify near the instability axis this evening, could be associated with wind damage and hail. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms will continue to impact the mid to upper Mississippi Valley this evening. The severe threat will affect the southwestern Great Lakes and lower Ohio Valley later tonight. Damaging wind gusts, isolated large hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes/Lower Ohio Valley... An upper-level low is evident on water vapor imagery over the mid Missouri Valley, with an associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet located in the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a 989 mb low is located in far northwest Iowa, with a corridor of maximized low-level moisture (surface dewpoints in the 60s F) in the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing along a zone of low-level convergence from northwest Illinois into southern Wisconsin. This line will likely be maintained, moving east-northeastward to the western shore of Lake Michigan by late this evening. Ahead of the line, the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. WSR-88D VWPs in central and northern Illinois have 0-6 km shear around 60 knots suggesting the severe threat will continue this evening. Wind damage will be likely with the more intense parts of the line, especially with the faster moving bowing segments. WSR-88D VWPs across central and northern Illinois have 0-3 storm-relative helicity generally in the 500 to 550 m2/s2 range. This will likely continue to support an isolated tornado threat with rotating storms that remain somewhat discrete, or with circulations within the line itself. Isolated large hail could also accompany the stronger rotating cells. Further south into the mid Mississippi Valley, the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range across much of eastern Missouri and Arkansas. The instability combined with 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 75 knot range will likely support a severe threat this evening. However, large-scale ascent is weaker this far south suggesting that storm coverage will be isolated. Any cell that can intensify near the instability axis this evening, could be associated with wind damage and hail. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms will continue to impact the mid to upper Mississippi Valley this evening. The severe threat will affect the southwestern Great Lakes and lower Ohio Valley later tonight. Damaging wind gusts, isolated large hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes/Lower Ohio Valley... An upper-level low is evident on water vapor imagery over the mid Missouri Valley, with an associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet located in the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a 989 mb low is located in far northwest Iowa, with a corridor of maximized low-level moisture (surface dewpoints in the 60s F) in the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing along a zone of low-level convergence from northwest Illinois into southern Wisconsin. This line will likely be maintained, moving east-northeastward to the western shore of Lake Michigan by late this evening. Ahead of the line, the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. WSR-88D VWPs in central and northern Illinois have 0-6 km shear around 60 knots suggesting the severe threat will continue this evening. Wind damage will be likely with the more intense parts of the line, especially with the faster moving bowing segments. WSR-88D VWPs across central and northern Illinois have 0-3 storm-relative helicity generally in the 500 to 550 m2/s2 range. This will likely continue to support an isolated tornado threat with rotating storms that remain somewhat discrete, or with circulations within the line itself. Isolated large hail could also accompany the stronger rotating cells. Further south into the mid Mississippi Valley, the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range across much of eastern Missouri and Arkansas. The instability combined with 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 75 knot range will likely support a severe threat this evening. However, large-scale ascent is weaker this far south suggesting that storm coverage will be isolated. Any cell that can intensify near the instability axis this evening, could be associated with wind damage and hail. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms will continue to impact the mid to upper Mississippi Valley this evening. The severe threat will affect the southwestern Great Lakes and lower Ohio Valley later tonight. Damaging wind gusts, isolated large hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes/Lower Ohio Valley... An upper-level low is evident on water vapor imagery over the mid Missouri Valley, with an associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet located in the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a 989 mb low is located in far northwest Iowa, with a corridor of maximized low-level moisture (surface dewpoints in the 60s F) in the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing along a zone of low-level convergence from northwest Illinois into southern Wisconsin. This line will likely be maintained, moving east-northeastward to the western shore of Lake Michigan by late this evening. Ahead of the line, the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. WSR-88D VWPs in central and northern Illinois have 0-6 km shear around 60 knots suggesting the severe threat will continue this evening. Wind damage will be likely with the more intense parts of the line, especially with the faster moving bowing segments. WSR-88D VWPs across central and northern Illinois have 0-3 storm-relative helicity generally in the 500 to 550 m2/s2 range. This will likely continue to support an isolated tornado threat with rotating storms that remain somewhat discrete, or with circulations within the line itself. Isolated large hail could also accompany the stronger rotating cells. Further south into the mid Mississippi Valley, the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range across much of eastern Missouri and Arkansas. The instability combined with 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 75 knot range will likely support a severe threat this evening. However, large-scale ascent is weaker this far south suggesting that storm coverage will be isolated. Any cell that can intensify near the instability axis this evening, could be associated with wind damage and hail. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms will continue to impact the mid to upper Mississippi Valley this evening. The severe threat will affect the southwestern Great Lakes and lower Ohio Valley later tonight. Damaging wind gusts, isolated large hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes/Lower Ohio Valley... An upper-level low is evident on water vapor imagery over the mid Missouri Valley, with an associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet located in the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a 989 mb low is located in far northwest Iowa, with a corridor of maximized low-level moisture (surface dewpoints in the 60s F) in the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing along a zone of low-level convergence from northwest Illinois into southern Wisconsin. This line will likely be maintained, moving east-northeastward to the western shore of Lake Michigan by late this evening. Ahead of the line, the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. WSR-88D VWPs in central and northern Illinois have 0-6 km shear around 60 knots suggesting the severe threat will continue this evening. Wind damage will be likely with the more intense parts of the line, especially with the faster moving bowing segments. WSR-88D VWPs across central and northern Illinois have 0-3 storm-relative helicity generally in the 500 to 550 m2/s2 range. This will likely continue to support an isolated tornado threat with rotating storms that remain somewhat discrete, or with circulations within the line itself. Isolated large hail could also accompany the stronger rotating cells. Further south into the mid Mississippi Valley, the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range across much of eastern Missouri and Arkansas. The instability combined with 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 75 knot range will likely support a severe threat this evening. However, large-scale ascent is weaker this far south suggesting that storm coverage will be isolated. Any cell that can intensify near the instability axis this evening, could be associated with wind damage and hail. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 04/17/2024 Read more

WW 0119 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 119 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE SPI TO 35 SW SPI. ..KERR..04/17/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 119 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC129-167-170240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MENARD SANGAMON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0119 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 119 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE SPI TO 35 SW SPI. ..KERR..04/17/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 119 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC129-167-170240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MENARD SANGAMON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 119 SEVERE TSTM IL MO 162020Z - 170200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 119 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 320 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Southeast Missouri * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will continue to move east-northeastward across the region this afternoon, with damaging winds and hail as the primary risks. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Mattoon IL to 40 miles southwest of Farmington MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 116...WW 117...WW 118... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0117 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 117 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW PIA TO 20 S MLI TO 45 WSW RFD TO 15 NNW MSN. ..LYONS..04/17/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...LSX...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 117 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC011-073-095-123-143-155-175-177-195-170240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUREAU HENRY KNOX MARSHALL PEORIA PUTNAM STARK STEPHENSON WHITESIDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0117 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 117 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW PIA TO 20 S MLI TO 45 WSW RFD TO 15 NNW MSN. ..LYONS..04/17/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...LSX...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 117 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC011-073-095-123-143-155-175-177-195-170240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUREAU HENRY KNOX MARSHALL PEORIA PUTNAM STARK STEPHENSON WHITESIDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0117 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 117 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW ALN TO 20 SSW UIN TO 20 SW BRL TO 5 S LNR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0468 ..LYONS..04/17/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...LSX...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 117 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-011-015-017-057-067-071-073-085-095-109-123-125-131- 137-143-149-155-161-169-171-175-177-187-195-170140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN BUREAU CARROLL CASS FULTON HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS KNOX MCDONOUGH MARSHALL MASON MERCER MORGAN PEORIA PIKE PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND SCHUYLER SCOTT STARK STEPHENSON WARREN WHITESIDE IAC045-097-163-170140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLINTON JACKSON SCOTT Read more

WW 117 TORNADO IA IL MO WI 161705Z - 170100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 117 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Iowa Western and Northwest Illinois Northeast Missouri Southwest Wisconsin * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Arcing bands and clusters of severe storms including supercells will steadily move northeastward across the region through the afternoon, with the potential for all hazards including tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north of Dubuque IA to 75 miles south southwest of Quincy IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 116... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Guyer Read more