Aggregator

WW 0317 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 317 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW AVL TO 35 WNW HKY TO 50 S PSK TO 30 SSE PSK TO 15 SSE ROA. ..LYONS..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...JKL...GSP...RNK...RLX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 317 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC003-021-023-027-035-059-097-111-157-159-169-171-193-197- 270140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER BUNCOMBE BURKE CALDWELL CATAWBA DAVIE IREDELL MCDOWELL ROCKINGHAM ROWAN STOKES SURRY WILKES YADKIN VAC089-141-690-270140- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HENRY PATRICK VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE MARTINSVILLE Read more

WW 0317 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 317 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW AVL TO 35 WNW HKY TO 50 S PSK TO 30 SSE PSK TO 15 SSE ROA. ..LYONS..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...JKL...GSP...RNK...RLX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 317 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC003-021-023-027-035-059-097-111-157-159-169-171-193-197- 270140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER BUNCOMBE BURKE CALDWELL CATAWBA DAVIE IREDELL MCDOWELL ROCKINGHAM ROWAN STOKES SURRY WILKES YADKIN VAC089-141-690-270140- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HENRY PATRICK VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE MARTINSVILLE Read more

WW 0317 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 317 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW AVL TO 35 WNW HKY TO 50 S PSK TO 30 SSE PSK TO 15 SSE ROA. ..LYONS..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...JKL...GSP...RNK...RLX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 317 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC003-021-023-027-035-059-097-111-157-159-169-171-193-197- 270140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER BUNCOMBE BURKE CALDWELL CATAWBA DAVIE IREDELL MCDOWELL ROCKINGHAM ROWAN STOKES SURRY WILKES YADKIN VAC089-141-690-270140- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HENRY PATRICK VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE MARTINSVILLE Read more

WW 0317 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 317 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW AVL TO 35 WNW HKY TO 50 S PSK TO 30 SSE PSK TO 15 SSE ROA. ..LYONS..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...JKL...GSP...RNK...RLX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 317 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC003-021-023-027-035-059-097-111-157-159-169-171-193-197- 270140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER BUNCOMBE BURKE CALDWELL CATAWBA DAVIE IREDELL MCDOWELL ROCKINGHAM ROWAN STOKES SURRY WILKES YADKIN VAC089-141-690-270140- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HENRY PATRICK VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE MARTINSVILLE Read more

WW 0317 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 317 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW AVL TO 35 WNW HKY TO 50 S PSK TO 30 SSE PSK TO 15 SSE ROA. ..LYONS..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...JKL...GSP...RNK...RLX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 317 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC003-021-023-027-035-059-097-111-157-159-169-171-193-197- 270140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER BUNCOMBE BURKE CALDWELL CATAWBA DAVIE IREDELL MCDOWELL ROCKINGHAM ROWAN STOKES SURRY WILKES YADKIN VAC089-141-690-270140- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HENRY PATRICK VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE MARTINSVILLE Read more

WW 0317 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 317 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW AVL TO 35 WNW HKY TO 50 S PSK TO 30 SSE PSK TO 15 SSE ROA. ..LYONS..05/27/24 ATTN...WFO...JKL...GSP...RNK...RLX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 317 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC003-021-023-027-035-059-097-111-157-159-169-171-193-197- 270140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER BUNCOMBE BURKE CALDWELL CATAWBA DAVIE IREDELL MCDOWELL ROCKINGHAM ROWAN STOKES SURRY WILKES YADKIN VAC089-141-690-270140- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HENRY PATRICK VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE MARTINSVILLE Read more

WW 317 SEVERE TSTM KY NC OH TN VA WV 261745Z - 270100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 317 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kentucky Western North Carolina Southeast Ohio Eastern Tennessee Southwest Virginia Central and Southern West Virginia * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A bowing complex of severe thunderstorms will continue moving east through the remainder of this afternoon and early evening. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts and a tornado or two will be the primary severe weather hazards, however isolated large hail will also be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west northwest of Bristol TN to 20 miles northeast of Dublin VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 315...WW 316... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Bunting Read more

WW 0316 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 316 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE CRW TO 25 SSW PKB TO 15 SSE ZZV TO 15 NNW ZZV TO 20 S MFD TO 30 W MFD TO 10 WNW FDY TO 20 SW TOL TO 10 W TOL. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...RLX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 316 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC033-063-077-139-147-173-175-262340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD HANCOCK HURON RICHLAND SENECA WOOD WYANDOT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0316 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 316 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE CRW TO 25 SSW PKB TO 15 SSE ZZV TO 15 NNW ZZV TO 20 S MFD TO 30 W MFD TO 10 WNW FDY TO 20 SW TOL TO 10 W TOL. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...RLX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 316 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC033-063-077-139-147-173-175-262340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD HANCOCK HURON RICHLAND SENECA WOOD WYANDOT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0316 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 316 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE CRW TO 25 SSW PKB TO 15 SSE ZZV TO 15 NNW ZZV TO 20 S MFD TO 30 W MFD TO 10 WNW FDY TO 20 SW TOL TO 10 W TOL. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...RLX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 316 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC033-063-077-139-147-173-175-262340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD HANCOCK HURON RICHLAND SENECA WOOD WYANDOT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0316 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 316 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE CRW TO 25 SSW PKB TO 15 SSE ZZV TO 15 NNW ZZV TO 20 S MFD TO 30 W MFD TO 10 WNW FDY TO 20 SW TOL TO 10 W TOL. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...RLX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 316 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC033-063-077-139-147-173-175-262340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD HANCOCK HURON RICHLAND SENECA WOOD WYANDOT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0316 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 316 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE CRW TO 25 SSW PKB TO 15 SSE ZZV TO 15 NNW ZZV TO 20 S MFD TO 30 W MFD TO 10 WNW FDY TO 20 SW TOL TO 10 W TOL. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...RLX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 316 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC033-063-077-139-147-173-175-262340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD HANCOCK HURON RICHLAND SENECA WOOD WYANDOT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0319 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW GMJ TO 15 ESE JLN TO 25 NNE SGF TO 10 SW VIH. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-087-143-270040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL MADISON WASHINGTON MOC009-043-059-067-077-105-109-119-145-153-209-213-225-229- 270040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CHRISTIAN DALLAS DOUGLAS GREENE LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON OZARK STONE TANEY WEBSTER WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

MD 0990 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 319...320... FOR SOUTHERN MO...NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0990 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0547 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...Southern MO...Northwest/North-Central AR Concerning...Tornado Watch 319...320... Valid 262247Z - 270015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 319, 320 continues. SUMMARY...Discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large hail up to 3" in diameter, and strong gusts up to 70 mph, will persist from central Missouri into northwest/north-central AR. DISCUSSION...Several supercells have developed within the open warm sector across southern MO and northwest AR, ahead of the line of storms along the cold front approaching for the northwest. The triplet of supercells in south-central MO (i.e. Texas, Shannon, and Howell Counties) have all shown a notable increase in updraft intensity over the past half hour, with echo tops now over 50 kft in each storm. Another supercell has developed quickly just ahead of the primary line of storms across Pulaski and Phelps Counties. The easternmost two storms also are likely undergoing the splitting process, suggesting some additional strengthening and maturation is possible once this process completes. The downstream airmass is very unstable, with recent mesoanalysis estimating over 3500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Vertical shear is strong as well, with mesoanalysis estimating effective bulk shear around 50 kt. Low-level flow is somewhat veered, but strong low-level buoyancy (i.e. 0-3 km MLCAPE over 150 J/kg) should still be more than sufficient for stretching and potential tornadogenesis. Very large hail up to 3" in diameter and strong gusts up to 70 mph are possible in addition to tornadoes. The lone supercell along the far western MO/AR border continues to maintain its intensity, although it may now be trending towards a more outflow-dominant structure. However, given the strong buoyancy and robust vertical shear, some additional reorganizing is possible, with an attendant threat for tornadoes once this reorganization occurs. Very large hail up to 3" in diameter and strong gusts up to 70 mph remain possible with this storm as well. ..Mosier.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 37849067 36999036 36049193 35909318 36219433 37759224 37849067 Read more

WW 0320 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 320 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 320 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-021-031-049-055-063-065-067-075-089-093-111-121-135- 262340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CLAY CRAIGHEAD FULTON GREENE INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON LAWRENCE MARION MISSISSIPPI POINSETT RANDOLPH SHARP ILC003-027-055-065-077-081-087-119-121-127-133-145-151-153-157- 163-165-181-189-199-262340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER CLINTON FRANKLIN HAMILTON JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MADISON MARION MASSAC MONROE PERRY POPE PULASKI RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SALINE UNION WASHINGTON WILLIAMSON Read more

MD 0993 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 317...318...321... FOR EASTERN OH...WESTERN PA...WESTERN MD...EASTERN WV...CENTRAL VA
Mesoscale Discussion 0993 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0622 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...Eastern OH...western PA...western MD...eastern WV...central VA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 317...318...321... Valid 262322Z - 270045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 317, 318, 321 continues. SUMMARY...Some damaging-wind potential will spread northeastward through the evening. DISCUSSION...A loosely organized QLCS with a history of producing some wind damage is moving across eastern OH/western PA into parts of eastern WV/central VA. While midlevel lapse rates are weak and instability gradually decreases with eastward extent, earlier diurnal heating resulted in some steepening of low-level lapse rates, and MLCAPE may remain around 500 J/kg in advance of the line this evening, though with gradually increasing MLCINH. The QLCS will likely continue to remain somewhat organized until decreasing instability and increasing inhibition becomes prohibitive later this evening. Rather strong low-level flow (noted on regional VWPs) will continue to support some wind-damage potential with this QLCS as it advances northeastward. Some threat may eventually spread out of WW 318 and WW 321 into central PA, western MD, and northern/central VA, though the need for additional watch issuance remains uncertain. ..Dean/Smith.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE... LAT...LON 37287955 39128015 40948107 41138111 41618053 41427948 39667867 37617818 37257851 37247927 37287955 Read more

MD 0992 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 320... FOR FAR SOUTHEAST MO...FAR SOUTHERN IL...WESTERN/CENTRAL KY...FAR SOUTHWEST IN
Mesoscale Discussion 0992 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...Far Southeast MO...Far Southern IL...Western/Central KY...Far Southwest IN Concerning...Tornado Watch 320... Valid 262318Z - 270045Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 320 continues. SUMMARY...Open warm sector initiation appears to be underway from far southeast Missouri across far southern Illinois into western/central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes, are possible. Southern IN and western/central KY will likely need an additional Tornado Watch soon. DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite has shown increasingly deep cumulus within the warm sector well ahead of the main cold front from far southwest MO across southern IL into southwest KY and far southwest IN. Some radar returns have been recently noted with this activity as well, giving increasing confidence that at least isolated convective initiation may be realized shortly. A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends across much of this region, resulting in notable low-level veering within the VAD profiles at PAH and HPX. Ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy exists across the region as well. Mesoanalysis estimates STP is currently from 3 to 5, with this high values expected to persist and expand northeastward with time. The result is an environment that is favorable for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes. Very large hail up to 2.5" in diameter is possible as well. Some of this area is within the Tornado Watch 230, but those areas to its east including far southern IN and western KY will likely need an additional Tornado Watch soon. ..Mosier/Smith.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... LAT...LON 38128933 38648795 38618586 36998615 36568934 37308980 38128933 Read more

MD 0990 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 319...320... FOR SOUTHERN MO...NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0990 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0547 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...Southern MO...Northwest/North-Central AR Concerning...Tornado Watch 319...320... Valid 262247Z - 270015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 319, 320 continues. SUMMARY...Discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large hail up to 3" in diameter, and strong gusts up to 70 mph, will persist from central Missouri into northwest/north-central AR. DISCUSSION...Several supercells have developed within the open warm sector across southern MO and northwest AR, ahead of the line of storms along the cold front approaching for the northwest. The triplet of supercells in south-central MO (i.e. Texas, Shannon, and Howell Counties) have all shown a notable increase in updraft intensity over the past half hour, with echo tops now over 50 kft in each storm. Another supercell has developed quickly just ahead of the primary line of storms across Pulaski and Phelps Counties. The easternmost two storms also are likely undergoing the splitting process, suggesting some additional strengthening and maturation is possible once this process completes. The downstream airmass is very unstable, with recent mesoanalysis estimating over 3500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Vertical shear is strong as well, with mesoanalysis estimating effective bulk shear around 50 kt. Low-level flow is somewhat veered, but strong low-level buoyancy (i.e. 0-3 km MLCAPE over 150 J/kg) should still be more than sufficient for stretching and potential tornadogenesis. Very large hail up to 3" in diameter and strong gusts up to 70 mph are possible in addition to tornadoes. The lone supercell along the far western MO/AR border continues to maintain its intensity, although it may now be trending towards a more outflow-dominant structure. However, given the strong buoyancy and robust vertical shear, some additional reorganizing is possible, with an attendant threat for tornadoes once this reorganization occurs. Very large hail up to 3" in diameter and strong gusts up to 70 mph remain possible with this storm as well. ..Mosier.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 37849067 36999036 36049193 35909318 36219433 37759224 37849067 Read more

MD 0991 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0991 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0553 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...southeast Wisconsin and far northern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 262253Z - 270000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The risk for a couple brief tornadoes looks to continue for the next hour or two. The threat should quickly wane as storms approach the lake. DISCUSSION...As of 2250 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a line of storms ongoing beneath an upper low over parts of southeast WI and far northern IL. Within the line several small supercell structures have developed and have a history of brief tornadoes. Driven by strong low-level buoyancy favorable for stretching abundant ambient vertical vorticity, the risk for brief tornadoes looks to continue for another hour or two. The most favorable location for the tornado risk appears to be the northern most section where the line orientation is more orthogonal to the deep-layer flow. Still, brief tornadoes are possible with any small supercell structures able to develop. Storms should begin to weaken as they encounter the lake breeze boundary where temperatures fall to the low 60s and inhibition increases. Given the limited coverage and short duration, a WW is unlikely, though trends will be monitored. ..Lyons.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX... LAT...LON 43078879 43198885 43338873 43388861 43418845 43318816 43178804 42958792 42668792 42428805 42298816 42178834 42138862 42148874 42368870 42578865 42648867 43078879 Read more

MD 0988 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 317... FOR EASTERN TN...WESTERN NC...NORTHEAST GA...UPSTATE SC
Mesoscale Discussion 0988 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0535 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...Eastern TN...western NC...northeast GA...upstate SC Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 317... Valid 262235Z - 270000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 317 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging wind and hail will persist into the evening. New watch issuance is expected shortly. DISCUSSION...A few supercells have developed from southwest NC into upstate SC, within a moderately unstable environment. The GSP VWP depicts rather strong mid/upper-level flow, and 40+ kt of effective shear, which is sufficient to maintain supercells. While midlevel lapse rates are not particularly strong, the moderate instability and favorable storm mode will support a hail threat with the strongest cells. The supercell storm mode could also support a brief tornado threat, even though low-level shear/SRH is not particularly strong. Steep low-level lapse rates resulting from earlier strong diurnal heating will support damaging-wind potential, especially if any sort of clustering or modest upscale growth of ongoing convection can occur. With the threat expected to extend southward of WW 317, new watch issuance is expected shortly. ..Dean/Smith.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... LAT...LON 36378312 36448208 35418093 34688068 34078144 33968227 34098284 34258320 34688378 35448384 35858360 36378312 Read more