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MD 1033 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 339...340... FOR NORTH TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1033 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0526 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...North TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 339...340... Valid 281026Z - 281200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 339, 340 continues. SUMMARY...A swath of damaging winds with severe gusts of 65-80 mph and embedded large hail to around golf-ball size appears likely to spread across the Metroplex and southeastward. DISCUSSION...A strengthening and deepening complex of severe thunderstorms (with echo tops to around 60k ft) will progress through the Metroplex over the next couple hours. An initial measured severe gust of 61 mph was recently reported in Denton County, and gust potential will likely increase as the complex moves into richer boundary-layer moisture characterized by mid 70s surface dew points across the central/southern Metroplex. This cluster may accelerate as the cold pool further deepens, and likely propagates southeastward along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient extending into southeast TX. ..Grams.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... LAT...LON 33439715 32949598 32489563 32079540 31769587 31889626 32359701 32759739 33069767 33259768 33439715 Read more

WW 0340 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 340 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1033. ..GRAMS..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 340 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-035-113-139-161-213-217-221-231-251-257-293-309-349-363- 367-379-397-425-439-467-281140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BOSQUE DALLAS ELLIS FREESTONE HENDERSON HILL HOOD HUNT JOHNSON KAUFMAN LIMESTONE MCLENNAN NAVARRO PALO PINTO PARKER RAINS ROCKWALL SOMERVELL TARRANT VAN ZANDT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0340 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 340 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1033. ..GRAMS..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 340 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-035-113-139-161-213-217-221-231-251-257-293-309-349-363- 367-379-397-425-439-467-281140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BOSQUE DALLAS ELLIS FREESTONE HENDERSON HILL HOOD HUNT JOHNSON KAUFMAN LIMESTONE MCLENNAN NAVARRO PALO PINTO PARKER RAINS ROCKWALL SOMERVELL TARRANT VAN ZANDT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0339 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 339 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S CHK TO 15 W ADM TO 10 WNW DUA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1033. ..GRAMS..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 339 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC015-019-031-033-067-075-085-095-137-141-281140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CADDO CARTER COMANCHE COTTON JEFFERSON KIOWA LOVE MARSHALL STEPHENS TILLMAN TXC009-077-085-097-121-181-237-337-485-487-497-503-281140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER CLAY COLLIN COOKE DENTON GRAYSON JACK MONTAGUE WICHITA WILBARGER WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0339 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 339 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S CHK TO 15 W ADM TO 10 WNW DUA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1033. ..GRAMS..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 339 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC015-019-031-033-067-075-085-095-137-141-281140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CADDO CARTER COMANCHE COTTON JEFFERSON KIOWA LOVE MARSHALL STEPHENS TILLMAN TXC009-077-085-097-121-181-237-337-485-487-497-503-281140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER CLAY COLLIN COOKE DENTON GRAYSON JACK MONTAGUE WICHITA WILBARGER WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

MD 1032 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 339... FOR NORTH TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1032 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...North TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 339... Valid 280825Z - 281000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 339 continues. SUMMARY...An increasing threat for severe wind gusts and large hail is expected farther south in north Texas through sunrise. An additional severe thunderstorm watch or extension of ongoing WW 339 is likely. DISCUSSION...The deepest/most intense thunderstorms within WW 339 were centered over Clay County, TX. Recent radar evolution suggest this activity is beginning to pivot southeastward towards the large CAPE reservoir emanating north from central TX. While CAM guidance has been slow with the evolution of early morning convection, the 07Z HRRR run finally appears more consistent with the 00Z NSSL-MPAS runs in indicating a substantial linear cluster accelerating southeastward across parts of the Metroplex. With deepening convective cores to its east, within the downstream warm-advection flank and the FWS VWP sampling the strongest low-level jet of the night (around 40 kts), this scenario appears increasingly plausible. Damaging gusts could reach 65-80 mph as the cold pool matures towards sunrise. ..Grams.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34059777 34059737 33599639 32699570 32299571 32039600 31949643 32029698 32309740 32929800 33269838 33829850 34029844 34059777 Read more

WW 0340 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0340 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0339 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 339 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1032. ..GRAMS..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 339 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC015-019-031-033-049-051-067-069-075-085-087-095-099-123-137- 141-281040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CADDO CARTER COMANCHE COTTON GARVIN GRADY JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KIOWA LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC STEPHENS TILLMAN TXC009-077-085-097-121-181-237-337-485-487-497-503-281040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER CLAY COLLIN COOKE DENTON GRAYSON JACK MONTAGUE WICHITA WILBARGER WISE YOUNG Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that an initially prominent mid-level ridge will become increasingly suppressed across the Great Lakes region late this week into early next weekend. It appears that flow will then trend more zonal along the interior Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, but subsequent flow evolution remains uncertain due to continuing notable spread within/among the various model output. Broad mid-level ridging, within the stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, is generally forecast to build inland of the northern Pacific coast through the western/central Canadian U.S. border area by the middle of next week. It is possible that this may be preceded by mid-level troughing which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri Valley and northern Great Plains Red River Valley by early next Monday, then across northwestern Ontario Tuesday. It might not be out of the question that increasing flow and shear, coupled with low-level moisture return ahead of a sharpening dryline across the High Plains, could contribute to an increase in severe weather potential late Sunday afternoon. This could continue along a cold front overtaking the dryline across the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest, and along the dryline across the central and southern High Plains, into Monday/Monday night. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that an initially prominent mid-level ridge will become increasingly suppressed across the Great Lakes region late this week into early next weekend. It appears that flow will then trend more zonal along the interior Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, but subsequent flow evolution remains uncertain due to continuing notable spread within/among the various model output. Broad mid-level ridging, within the stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, is generally forecast to build inland of the northern Pacific coast through the western/central Canadian U.S. border area by the middle of next week. It is possible that this may be preceded by mid-level troughing which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri Valley and northern Great Plains Red River Valley by early next Monday, then across northwestern Ontario Tuesday. It might not be out of the question that increasing flow and shear, coupled with low-level moisture return ahead of a sharpening dryline across the High Plains, could contribute to an increase in severe weather potential late Sunday afternoon. This could continue along a cold front overtaking the dryline across the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest, and along the dryline across the central and southern High Plains, into Monday/Monday night. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that an initially prominent mid-level ridge will become increasingly suppressed across the Great Lakes region late this week into early next weekend. It appears that flow will then trend more zonal along the interior Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, but subsequent flow evolution remains uncertain due to continuing notable spread within/among the various model output. Broad mid-level ridging, within the stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, is generally forecast to build inland of the northern Pacific coast through the western/central Canadian U.S. border area by the middle of next week. It is possible that this may be preceded by mid-level troughing which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri Valley and northern Great Plains Red River Valley by early next Monday, then across northwestern Ontario Tuesday. It might not be out of the question that increasing flow and shear, coupled with low-level moisture return ahead of a sharpening dryline across the High Plains, could contribute to an increase in severe weather potential late Sunday afternoon. This could continue along a cold front overtaking the dryline across the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest, and along the dryline across the central and southern High Plains, into Monday/Monday night. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that an initially prominent mid-level ridge will become increasingly suppressed across the Great Lakes region late this week into early next weekend. It appears that flow will then trend more zonal along the interior Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, but subsequent flow evolution remains uncertain due to continuing notable spread within/among the various model output. Broad mid-level ridging, within the stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, is generally forecast to build inland of the northern Pacific coast through the western/central Canadian U.S. border area by the middle of next week. It is possible that this may be preceded by mid-level troughing which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri Valley and northern Great Plains Red River Valley by early next Monday, then across northwestern Ontario Tuesday. It might not be out of the question that increasing flow and shear, coupled with low-level moisture return ahead of a sharpening dryline across the High Plains, could contribute to an increase in severe weather potential late Sunday afternoon. This could continue along a cold front overtaking the dryline across the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest, and along the dryline across the central and southern High Plains, into Monday/Monday night. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that an initially prominent mid-level ridge will become increasingly suppressed across the Great Lakes region late this week into early next weekend. It appears that flow will then trend more zonal along the interior Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, but subsequent flow evolution remains uncertain due to continuing notable spread within/among the various model output. Broad mid-level ridging, within the stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, is generally forecast to build inland of the northern Pacific coast through the western/central Canadian U.S. border area by the middle of next week. It is possible that this may be preceded by mid-level troughing which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri Valley and northern Great Plains Red River Valley by early next Monday, then across northwestern Ontario Tuesday. It might not be out of the question that increasing flow and shear, coupled with low-level moisture return ahead of a sharpening dryline across the High Plains, could contribute to an increase in severe weather potential late Sunday afternoon. This could continue along a cold front overtaking the dryline across the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest, and along the dryline across the central and southern High Plains, into Monday/Monday night. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that an initially prominent mid-level ridge will become increasingly suppressed across the Great Lakes region late this week into early next weekend. It appears that flow will then trend more zonal along the interior Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, but subsequent flow evolution remains uncertain due to continuing notable spread within/among the various model output. Broad mid-level ridging, within the stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, is generally forecast to build inland of the northern Pacific coast through the western/central Canadian U.S. border area by the middle of next week. It is possible that this may be preceded by mid-level troughing which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri Valley and northern Great Plains Red River Valley by early next Monday, then across northwestern Ontario Tuesday. It might not be out of the question that increasing flow and shear, coupled with low-level moisture return ahead of a sharpening dryline across the High Plains, could contribute to an increase in severe weather potential late Sunday afternoon. This could continue along a cold front overtaking the dryline across the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest, and along the dryline across the central and southern High Plains, into Monday/Monday night. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that an initially prominent mid-level ridge will become increasingly suppressed across the Great Lakes region late this week into early next weekend. It appears that flow will then trend more zonal along the interior Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, but subsequent flow evolution remains uncertain due to continuing notable spread within/among the various model output. Broad mid-level ridging, within the stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, is generally forecast to build inland of the northern Pacific coast through the western/central Canadian U.S. border area by the middle of next week. It is possible that this may be preceded by mid-level troughing which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri Valley and northern Great Plains Red River Valley by early next Monday, then across northwestern Ontario Tuesday. It might not be out of the question that increasing flow and shear, coupled with low-level moisture return ahead of a sharpening dryline across the High Plains, could contribute to an increase in severe weather potential late Sunday afternoon. This could continue along a cold front overtaking the dryline across the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest, and along the dryline across the central and southern High Plains, into Monday/Monday night. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that an initially prominent mid-level ridge will become increasingly suppressed across the Great Lakes region late this week into early next weekend. It appears that flow will then trend more zonal along the interior Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, but subsequent flow evolution remains uncertain due to continuing notable spread within/among the various model output. Broad mid-level ridging, within the stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, is generally forecast to build inland of the northern Pacific coast through the western/central Canadian U.S. border area by the middle of next week. It is possible that this may be preceded by mid-level troughing which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri Valley and northern Great Plains Red River Valley by early next Monday, then across northwestern Ontario Tuesday. It might not be out of the question that increasing flow and shear, coupled with low-level moisture return ahead of a sharpening dryline across the High Plains, could contribute to an increase in severe weather potential late Sunday afternoon. This could continue along a cold front overtaking the dryline across the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest, and along the dryline across the central and southern High Plains, into Monday/Monday night. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that an initially prominent mid-level ridge will become increasingly suppressed across the Great Lakes region late this week into early next weekend. It appears that flow will then trend more zonal along the interior Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, but subsequent flow evolution remains uncertain due to continuing notable spread within/among the various model output. Broad mid-level ridging, within the stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, is generally forecast to build inland of the northern Pacific coast through the western/central Canadian U.S. border area by the middle of next week. It is possible that this may be preceded by mid-level troughing which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri Valley and northern Great Plains Red River Valley by early next Monday, then across northwestern Ontario Tuesday. It might not be out of the question that increasing flow and shear, coupled with low-level moisture return ahead of a sharpening dryline across the High Plains, could contribute to an increase in severe weather potential late Sunday afternoon. This could continue along a cold front overtaking the dryline across the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest, and along the dryline across the central and southern High Plains, into Monday/Monday night. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that an initially prominent mid-level ridge will become increasingly suppressed across the Great Lakes region late this week into early next weekend. It appears that flow will then trend more zonal along the interior Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, but subsequent flow evolution remains uncertain due to continuing notable spread within/among the various model output. Broad mid-level ridging, within the stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, is generally forecast to build inland of the northern Pacific coast through the western/central Canadian U.S. border area by the middle of next week. It is possible that this may be preceded by mid-level troughing which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri Valley and northern Great Plains Red River Valley by early next Monday, then across northwestern Ontario Tuesday. It might not be out of the question that increasing flow and shear, coupled with low-level moisture return ahead of a sharpening dryline across the High Plains, could contribute to an increase in severe weather potential late Sunday afternoon. This could continue along a cold front overtaking the dryline across the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest, and along the dryline across the central and southern High Plains, into Monday/Monday night. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that an initially prominent mid-level ridge will become increasingly suppressed across the Great Lakes region late this week into early next weekend. It appears that flow will then trend more zonal along the interior Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, but subsequent flow evolution remains uncertain due to continuing notable spread within/among the various model output. Broad mid-level ridging, within the stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, is generally forecast to build inland of the northern Pacific coast through the western/central Canadian U.S. border area by the middle of next week. It is possible that this may be preceded by mid-level troughing which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri Valley and northern Great Plains Red River Valley by early next Monday, then across northwestern Ontario Tuesday. It might not be out of the question that increasing flow and shear, coupled with low-level moisture return ahead of a sharpening dryline across the High Plains, could contribute to an increase in severe weather potential late Sunday afternoon. This could continue along a cold front overtaking the dryline across the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest, and along the dryline across the central and southern High Plains, into Monday/Monday night. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that an initially prominent mid-level ridge will become increasingly suppressed across the Great Lakes region late this week into early next weekend. It appears that flow will then trend more zonal along the interior Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, but subsequent flow evolution remains uncertain due to continuing notable spread within/among the various model output. Broad mid-level ridging, within the stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, is generally forecast to build inland of the northern Pacific coast through the western/central Canadian U.S. border area by the middle of next week. It is possible that this may be preceded by mid-level troughing which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri Valley and northern Great Plains Red River Valley by early next Monday, then across northwestern Ontario Tuesday. It might not be out of the question that increasing flow and shear, coupled with low-level moisture return ahead of a sharpening dryline across the High Plains, could contribute to an increase in severe weather potential late Sunday afternoon. This could continue along a cold front overtaking the dryline across the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest, and along the dryline across the central and southern High Plains, into Monday/Monday night. Read more