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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper Midwest into the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern/central Plains into the Upper/Mid MS Valley, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to be over central Saskatchewan early Tuesday, but secondary low is anticipated at the triple point. This low is forecast to move from the ND/SD/MN border intersection vicinity eastward across central MN and northern WI while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward across the Upper and Mid MS Valleys. Much of the guidance has upper 60s dewpoints in place ahead of this front, helping to support moderate buoyancy across the Upper MS Valley, despite limited heating. Slightly greater buoyancy is possible farther south in from southeast NE/southern IA into northeast KS/northwest MO where stronger daytime heating is possible. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the approaching cold front impinges on this low-level moisture and buoyancy, with some isolated severe possible. Farther south, very moist airmass will remain over the southern Plains, with 70s dewpoints in place across much of TX and OK. Strong heating is anticipated, particularly across west TX where temperatures over 100 are possible. A sharp dryline is expected from far western OK into southwest TX, where there is a low chance for isolated thunderstorm development during the late afternoon. However, the overall severe probability is currently too low to delineate any area with this outlook. One or more convectively generated vorticity maxima are possible across the eastern CONUS, most likely over the OH Valley and Southeast states. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of these maxima during the afternoon as the airmass destabilizes. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper Midwest into the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern/central Plains into the Upper/Mid MS Valley, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to be over central Saskatchewan early Tuesday, but secondary low is anticipated at the triple point. This low is forecast to move from the ND/SD/MN border intersection vicinity eastward across central MN and northern WI while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward across the Upper and Mid MS Valleys. Much of the guidance has upper 60s dewpoints in place ahead of this front, helping to support moderate buoyancy across the Upper MS Valley, despite limited heating. Slightly greater buoyancy is possible farther south in from southeast NE/southern IA into northeast KS/northwest MO where stronger daytime heating is possible. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the approaching cold front impinges on this low-level moisture and buoyancy, with some isolated severe possible. Farther south, very moist airmass will remain over the southern Plains, with 70s dewpoints in place across much of TX and OK. Strong heating is anticipated, particularly across west TX where temperatures over 100 are possible. A sharp dryline is expected from far western OK into southwest TX, where there is a low chance for isolated thunderstorm development during the late afternoon. However, the overall severe probability is currently too low to delineate any area with this outlook. One or more convectively generated vorticity maxima are possible across the eastern CONUS, most likely over the OH Valley and Southeast states. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of these maxima during the afternoon as the airmass destabilizes. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible from the Upper Midwest into the Middle/Lower Missouri Valley on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern/central Plains into the Upper/Mid MS Valley, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Primary surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to be over central Saskatchewan early Tuesday, but secondary low is anticipated at the triple point. This low is forecast to move from the ND/SD/MN border intersection vicinity eastward across central MN and northern WI while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward across the Upper and Mid MS Valleys. Much of the guidance has upper 60s dewpoints in place ahead of this front, helping to support moderate buoyancy across the Upper MS Valley, despite limited heating. Slightly greater buoyancy is possible farther south in from southeast NE/southern IA into northeast KS/northwest MO where stronger daytime heating is possible. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the approaching cold front impinges on this low-level moisture and buoyancy, with some isolated severe possible. Farther south, very moist airmass will remain over the southern Plains, with 70s dewpoints in place across much of TX and OK. Strong heating is anticipated, particularly across west TX where temperatures over 100 are possible. A sharp dryline is expected from far western OK into southwest TX, where there is a low chance for isolated thunderstorm development during the late afternoon. However, the overall severe probability is currently too low to delineate any area with this outlook. One or more convectively generated vorticity maxima are possible across the eastern CONUS, most likely over the OH Valley and Southeast states. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of these maxima during the afternoon as the airmass destabilizes. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue as a shortwave trough over the Southwest translates eastward into the Plains. While flow aloft is expected to be weaker behind the wave, somewhat enhanced westerlies may still linger through the afternoon bolstering surface flow. With hot and dry surface conditions expected, a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the southwest and southern Rockies into D2/Monday. Flow aloft is expected to be somewhat weaker as the upper trough moves eastward. Still, some lingering westerly flow may bolster low-level winds behind a surface trough/dryline over the southern Plains. While not expected to be overly strong or widespread, occasional 15-20 mph surface winds are expected over parts of southeastern AZ, southern NM and far west TX. Hot and dry conditions will also support RH below 15% colocated with areas of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely through the afternoon. ..Lyons.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue as a shortwave trough over the Southwest translates eastward into the Plains. While flow aloft is expected to be weaker behind the wave, somewhat enhanced westerlies may still linger through the afternoon bolstering surface flow. With hot and dry surface conditions expected, a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the southwest and southern Rockies into D2/Monday. Flow aloft is expected to be somewhat weaker as the upper trough moves eastward. Still, some lingering westerly flow may bolster low-level winds behind a surface trough/dryline over the southern Plains. While not expected to be overly strong or widespread, occasional 15-20 mph surface winds are expected over parts of southeastern AZ, southern NM and far west TX. Hot and dry conditions will also support RH below 15% colocated with areas of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely through the afternoon. ..Lyons.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue as a shortwave trough over the Southwest translates eastward into the Plains. While flow aloft is expected to be weaker behind the wave, somewhat enhanced westerlies may still linger through the afternoon bolstering surface flow. With hot and dry surface conditions expected, a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the southwest and southern Rockies into D2/Monday. Flow aloft is expected to be somewhat weaker as the upper trough moves eastward. Still, some lingering westerly flow may bolster low-level winds behind a surface trough/dryline over the southern Plains. While not expected to be overly strong or widespread, occasional 15-20 mph surface winds are expected over parts of southeastern AZ, southern NM and far west TX. Hot and dry conditions will also support RH below 15% colocated with areas of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely through the afternoon. ..Lyons.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue as a shortwave trough over the Southwest translates eastward into the Plains. While flow aloft is expected to be weaker behind the wave, somewhat enhanced westerlies may still linger through the afternoon bolstering surface flow. With hot and dry surface conditions expected, a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the southwest and southern Rockies into D2/Monday. Flow aloft is expected to be somewhat weaker as the upper trough moves eastward. Still, some lingering westerly flow may bolster low-level winds behind a surface trough/dryline over the southern Plains. While not expected to be overly strong or widespread, occasional 15-20 mph surface winds are expected over parts of southeastern AZ, southern NM and far west TX. Hot and dry conditions will also support RH below 15% colocated with areas of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely through the afternoon. ..Lyons.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue as a shortwave trough over the Southwest translates eastward into the Plains. While flow aloft is expected to be weaker behind the wave, somewhat enhanced westerlies may still linger through the afternoon bolstering surface flow. With hot and dry surface conditions expected, a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the southwest and southern Rockies into D2/Monday. Flow aloft is expected to be somewhat weaker as the upper trough moves eastward. Still, some lingering westerly flow may bolster low-level winds behind a surface trough/dryline over the southern Plains. While not expected to be overly strong or widespread, occasional 15-20 mph surface winds are expected over parts of southeastern AZ, southern NM and far west TX. Hot and dry conditions will also support RH below 15% colocated with areas of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely through the afternoon. ..Lyons.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue as a shortwave trough over the Southwest translates eastward into the Plains. While flow aloft is expected to be weaker behind the wave, somewhat enhanced westerlies may still linger through the afternoon bolstering surface flow. With hot and dry surface conditions expected, a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the southwest and southern Rockies into D2/Monday. Flow aloft is expected to be somewhat weaker as the upper trough moves eastward. Still, some lingering westerly flow may bolster low-level winds behind a surface trough/dryline over the southern Plains. While not expected to be overly strong or widespread, occasional 15-20 mph surface winds are expected over parts of southeastern AZ, southern NM and far west TX. Hot and dry conditions will also support RH below 15% colocated with areas of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely through the afternoon. ..Lyons.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue as a shortwave trough over the Southwest translates eastward into the Plains. While flow aloft is expected to be weaker behind the wave, somewhat enhanced westerlies may still linger through the afternoon bolstering surface flow. With hot and dry surface conditions expected, a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the southwest and southern Rockies into D2/Monday. Flow aloft is expected to be somewhat weaker as the upper trough moves eastward. Still, some lingering westerly flow may bolster low-level winds behind a surface trough/dryline over the southern Plains. While not expected to be overly strong or widespread, occasional 15-20 mph surface winds are expected over parts of southeastern AZ, southern NM and far west TX. Hot and dry conditions will also support RH below 15% colocated with areas of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely through the afternoon. ..Lyons.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue as a shortwave trough over the Southwest translates eastward into the Plains. While flow aloft is expected to be weaker behind the wave, somewhat enhanced westerlies may still linger through the afternoon bolstering surface flow. With hot and dry surface conditions expected, a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains... Zonal mid-level flow will persist over the southwest and southern Rockies into D2/Monday. Flow aloft is expected to be somewhat weaker as the upper trough moves eastward. Still, some lingering westerly flow may bolster low-level winds behind a surface trough/dryline over the southern Plains. While not expected to be overly strong or widespread, occasional 15-20 mph surface winds are expected over parts of southeastern AZ, southern NM and far west TX. Hot and dry conditions will also support RH below 15% colocated with areas of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely through the afternoon. ..Lyons.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1121 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 370... FOR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1121 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Texas Panhandle...Northwest Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 370... Valid 020456Z - 020700Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 370 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to continue for a few more hours from the eastern Texas Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. The severe threat is expected to gradually become more isolated with time. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Vance Air Force Base shows a cluster of strong to severe storms from the northeastern Texas Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma. This feature is located along the southwestern edge of a corridor of moderate instability, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. The WSR-88D VWP in northwest Oklahoma currently has gradually veering winds in the lowest 2 km with flow generally at 30 knots. This is also evident on RAP forecast soundings which shows 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. This still could be enough to continue a threat for severe wind gusts with the stronger cells within the cluster. However, instability is weaker across much of western and central Oklahoma. As this cluster moves southeastward, the severe weather potential is expected to become more isolated with time. ..Broyles.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 35340120 35660159 36000159 36290133 36420078 36609999 36939920 37019869 36929827 36709796 36319792 35849817 35449887 35250020 35340120 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over much of the western and central US today. A shortwave trough over the Four Concerns will move eastward with enhanced westerly flow likely over the Southwest. Dry and breezy surface conditions are expected this afternoon supporting the potential for elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Desert Southwest into Southwest TX... Low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest ahead of a shortwave trough moving over the Four Corners. A lee low and trailing dryline will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits will continue supporting dry fuels outside of recent rainfall. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph for a few hours this afternoon. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and confined. ..Lyons.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over much of the western and central US today. A shortwave trough over the Four Concerns will move eastward with enhanced westerly flow likely over the Southwest. Dry and breezy surface conditions are expected this afternoon supporting the potential for elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Desert Southwest into Southwest TX... Low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest ahead of a shortwave trough moving over the Four Corners. A lee low and trailing dryline will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits will continue supporting dry fuels outside of recent rainfall. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph for a few hours this afternoon. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and confined. ..Lyons.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over much of the western and central US today. A shortwave trough over the Four Concerns will move eastward with enhanced westerly flow likely over the Southwest. Dry and breezy surface conditions are expected this afternoon supporting the potential for elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Desert Southwest into Southwest TX... Low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest ahead of a shortwave trough moving over the Four Corners. A lee low and trailing dryline will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits will continue supporting dry fuels outside of recent rainfall. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph for a few hours this afternoon. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and confined. ..Lyons.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over much of the western and central US today. A shortwave trough over the Four Concerns will move eastward with enhanced westerly flow likely over the Southwest. Dry and breezy surface conditions are expected this afternoon supporting the potential for elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Desert Southwest into Southwest TX... Low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest ahead of a shortwave trough moving over the Four Corners. A lee low and trailing dryline will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits will continue supporting dry fuels outside of recent rainfall. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph for a few hours this afternoon. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and confined. ..Lyons.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over much of the western and central US today. A shortwave trough over the Four Concerns will move eastward with enhanced westerly flow likely over the Southwest. Dry and breezy surface conditions are expected this afternoon supporting the potential for elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Desert Southwest into Southwest TX... Low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest ahead of a shortwave trough moving over the Four Corners. A lee low and trailing dryline will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits will continue supporting dry fuels outside of recent rainfall. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph for a few hours this afternoon. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and confined. ..Lyons.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over much of the western and central US today. A shortwave trough over the Four Concerns will move eastward with enhanced westerly flow likely over the Southwest. Dry and breezy surface conditions are expected this afternoon supporting the potential for elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Desert Southwest into Southwest TX... Low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest ahead of a shortwave trough moving over the Four Corners. A lee low and trailing dryline will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits will continue supporting dry fuels outside of recent rainfall. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph for a few hours this afternoon. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and confined. ..Lyons.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over much of the western and central US today. A shortwave trough over the Four Concerns will move eastward with enhanced westerly flow likely over the Southwest. Dry and breezy surface conditions are expected this afternoon supporting the potential for elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Desert Southwest into Southwest TX... Low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest ahead of a shortwave trough moving over the Four Corners. A lee low and trailing dryline will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits will continue supporting dry fuels outside of recent rainfall. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph for a few hours this afternoon. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and confined. ..Lyons.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over much of the western and central US today. A shortwave trough over the Four Concerns will move eastward with enhanced westerly flow likely over the Southwest. Dry and breezy surface conditions are expected this afternoon supporting the potential for elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Desert Southwest into Southwest TX... Low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest ahead of a shortwave trough moving over the Four Corners. A lee low and trailing dryline will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits will continue supporting dry fuels outside of recent rainfall. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph for a few hours this afternoon. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and confined. ..Lyons.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more