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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central High Plains on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairie Provinces southeastward off the Northeast Coast early Friday morning, anchored by a pair of closed lows, one over central Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the other Lake Huron. This troughing is expected to persist throughout much of the period, while upper ridging builds from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Rockies through the Upper/Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold will likely extend from a low over southern New England southward off the East Coast before then arcing more southwestward from coastal NC into central GA and westward back into northeast TX. A few thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front over coastal NC and the Outer Banks, as well as central and eastern Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. Farther west across the southern Plains, the front will become increasingly diffuse, with it likely returning northward as a warm front during the afternoon and evening as moisture returns back across the southern and central High Plains. Strong mixing is anticipated across much of the southern High Plains, with less mixing along the warm front into the central High Plains. As a result, 60s dewpoints are likely into eastern CO/western KS in near the lee trough. Thunderstorm development appears possible as a result, with moderate vertical shear supporting the potential for organized storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The lack of larger scale forcing suggests isolated coverage, but there is some chance that a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the ridge, helping to increase coverage. Greater storm coverage would increase the likelihood of upscale growth and the development of a convective line. However, predictability of that evolution is currently low. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central High Plains on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairie Provinces southeastward off the Northeast Coast early Friday morning, anchored by a pair of closed lows, one over central Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the other Lake Huron. This troughing is expected to persist throughout much of the period, while upper ridging builds from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Rockies through the Upper/Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold will likely extend from a low over southern New England southward off the East Coast before then arcing more southwestward from coastal NC into central GA and westward back into northeast TX. A few thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front over coastal NC and the Outer Banks, as well as central and eastern Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. Farther west across the southern Plains, the front will become increasingly diffuse, with it likely returning northward as a warm front during the afternoon and evening as moisture returns back across the southern and central High Plains. Strong mixing is anticipated across much of the southern High Plains, with less mixing along the warm front into the central High Plains. As a result, 60s dewpoints are likely into eastern CO/western KS in near the lee trough. Thunderstorm development appears possible as a result, with moderate vertical shear supporting the potential for organized storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The lack of larger scale forcing suggests isolated coverage, but there is some chance that a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the ridge, helping to increase coverage. Greater storm coverage would increase the likelihood of upscale growth and the development of a convective line. However, predictability of that evolution is currently low. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central High Plains on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairie Provinces southeastward off the Northeast Coast early Friday morning, anchored by a pair of closed lows, one over central Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the other Lake Huron. This troughing is expected to persist throughout much of the period, while upper ridging builds from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Rockies through the Upper/Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold will likely extend from a low over southern New England southward off the East Coast before then arcing more southwestward from coastal NC into central GA and westward back into northeast TX. A few thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front over coastal NC and the Outer Banks, as well as central and eastern Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. Farther west across the southern Plains, the front will become increasingly diffuse, with it likely returning northward as a warm front during the afternoon and evening as moisture returns back across the southern and central High Plains. Strong mixing is anticipated across much of the southern High Plains, with less mixing along the warm front into the central High Plains. As a result, 60s dewpoints are likely into eastern CO/western KS in near the lee trough. Thunderstorm development appears possible as a result, with moderate vertical shear supporting the potential for organized storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The lack of larger scale forcing suggests isolated coverage, but there is some chance that a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the ridge, helping to increase coverage. Greater storm coverage would increase the likelihood of upscale growth and the development of a convective line. However, predictability of that evolution is currently low. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central High Plains on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairie Provinces southeastward off the Northeast Coast early Friday morning, anchored by a pair of closed lows, one over central Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the other Lake Huron. This troughing is expected to persist throughout much of the period, while upper ridging builds from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Rockies through the Upper/Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold will likely extend from a low over southern New England southward off the East Coast before then arcing more southwestward from coastal NC into central GA and westward back into northeast TX. A few thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front over coastal NC and the Outer Banks, as well as central and eastern Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. Farther west across the southern Plains, the front will become increasingly diffuse, with it likely returning northward as a warm front during the afternoon and evening as moisture returns back across the southern and central High Plains. Strong mixing is anticipated across much of the southern High Plains, with less mixing along the warm front into the central High Plains. As a result, 60s dewpoints are likely into eastern CO/western KS in near the lee trough. Thunderstorm development appears possible as a result, with moderate vertical shear supporting the potential for organized storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The lack of larger scale forcing suggests isolated coverage, but there is some chance that a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the ridge, helping to increase coverage. Greater storm coverage would increase the likelihood of upscale growth and the development of a convective line. However, predictability of that evolution is currently low. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central High Plains on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairie Provinces southeastward off the Northeast Coast early Friday morning, anchored by a pair of closed lows, one over central Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the other Lake Huron. This troughing is expected to persist throughout much of the period, while upper ridging builds from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Rockies through the Upper/Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold will likely extend from a low over southern New England southward off the East Coast before then arcing more southwestward from coastal NC into central GA and westward back into northeast TX. A few thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front over coastal NC and the Outer Banks, as well as central and eastern Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. Farther west across the southern Plains, the front will become increasingly diffuse, with it likely returning northward as a warm front during the afternoon and evening as moisture returns back across the southern and central High Plains. Strong mixing is anticipated across much of the southern High Plains, with less mixing along the warm front into the central High Plains. As a result, 60s dewpoints are likely into eastern CO/western KS in near the lee trough. Thunderstorm development appears possible as a result, with moderate vertical shear supporting the potential for organized storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The lack of larger scale forcing suggests isolated coverage, but there is some chance that a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the ridge, helping to increase coverage. Greater storm coverage would increase the likelihood of upscale growth and the development of a convective line. However, predictability of that evolution is currently low. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central High Plains on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairie Provinces southeastward off the Northeast Coast early Friday morning, anchored by a pair of closed lows, one over central Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the other Lake Huron. This troughing is expected to persist throughout much of the period, while upper ridging builds from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Rockies through the Upper/Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold will likely extend from a low over southern New England southward off the East Coast before then arcing more southwestward from coastal NC into central GA and westward back into northeast TX. A few thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front over coastal NC and the Outer Banks, as well as central and eastern Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. Farther west across the southern Plains, the front will become increasingly diffuse, with it likely returning northward as a warm front during the afternoon and evening as moisture returns back across the southern and central High Plains. Strong mixing is anticipated across much of the southern High Plains, with less mixing along the warm front into the central High Plains. As a result, 60s dewpoints are likely into eastern CO/western KS in near the lee trough. Thunderstorm development appears possible as a result, with moderate vertical shear supporting the potential for organized storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The lack of larger scale forcing suggests isolated coverage, but there is some chance that a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the ridge, helping to increase coverage. Greater storm coverage would increase the likelihood of upscale growth and the development of a convective line. However, predictability of that evolution is currently low. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central High Plains on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairie Provinces southeastward off the Northeast Coast early Friday morning, anchored by a pair of closed lows, one over central Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the other Lake Huron. This troughing is expected to persist throughout much of the period, while upper ridging builds from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Rockies through the Upper/Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold will likely extend from a low over southern New England southward off the East Coast before then arcing more southwestward from coastal NC into central GA and westward back into northeast TX. A few thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front over coastal NC and the Outer Banks, as well as central and eastern Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. Farther west across the southern Plains, the front will become increasingly diffuse, with it likely returning northward as a warm front during the afternoon and evening as moisture returns back across the southern and central High Plains. Strong mixing is anticipated across much of the southern High Plains, with less mixing along the warm front into the central High Plains. As a result, 60s dewpoints are likely into eastern CO/western KS in near the lee trough. Thunderstorm development appears possible as a result, with moderate vertical shear supporting the potential for organized storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The lack of larger scale forcing suggests isolated coverage, but there is some chance that a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the ridge, helping to increase coverage. Greater storm coverage would increase the likelihood of upscale growth and the development of a convective line. However, predictability of that evolution is currently low. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central High Plains on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairie Provinces southeastward off the Northeast Coast early Friday morning, anchored by a pair of closed lows, one over central Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the other Lake Huron. This troughing is expected to persist throughout much of the period, while upper ridging builds from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Rockies through the Upper/Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold will likely extend from a low over southern New England southward off the East Coast before then arcing more southwestward from coastal NC into central GA and westward back into northeast TX. A few thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front over coastal NC and the Outer Banks, as well as central and eastern Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. Farther west across the southern Plains, the front will become increasingly diffuse, with it likely returning northward as a warm front during the afternoon and evening as moisture returns back across the southern and central High Plains. Strong mixing is anticipated across much of the southern High Plains, with less mixing along the warm front into the central High Plains. As a result, 60s dewpoints are likely into eastern CO/western KS in near the lee trough. Thunderstorm development appears possible as a result, with moderate vertical shear supporting the potential for organized storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The lack of larger scale forcing suggests isolated coverage, but there is some chance that a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the ridge, helping to increase coverage. Greater storm coverage would increase the likelihood of upscale growth and the development of a convective line. However, predictability of that evolution is currently low. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central High Plains on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairie Provinces southeastward off the Northeast Coast early Friday morning, anchored by a pair of closed lows, one over central Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the other Lake Huron. This troughing is expected to persist throughout much of the period, while upper ridging builds from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Rockies through the Upper/Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold will likely extend from a low over southern New England southward off the East Coast before then arcing more southwestward from coastal NC into central GA and westward back into northeast TX. A few thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front over coastal NC and the Outer Banks, as well as central and eastern Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. Farther west across the southern Plains, the front will become increasingly diffuse, with it likely returning northward as a warm front during the afternoon and evening as moisture returns back across the southern and central High Plains. Strong mixing is anticipated across much of the southern High Plains, with less mixing along the warm front into the central High Plains. As a result, 60s dewpoints are likely into eastern CO/western KS in near the lee trough. Thunderstorm development appears possible as a result, with moderate vertical shear supporting the potential for organized storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The lack of larger scale forcing suggests isolated coverage, but there is some chance that a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the ridge, helping to increase coverage. Greater storm coverage would increase the likelihood of upscale growth and the development of a convective line. However, predictability of that evolution is currently low. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning ignitions from high-based storms. ...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms... As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage. ..Lyons.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning ignitions from high-based storms. ...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms... As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage. ..Lyons.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning ignitions from high-based storms. ...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms... As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage. ..Lyons.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning ignitions from high-based storms. ...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms... As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage. ..Lyons.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning ignitions from high-based storms. ...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms... As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage. ..Lyons.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning ignitions from high-based storms. ...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms... As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage. ..Lyons.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning ignitions from high-based storms. ...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms... As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage. ..Lyons.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning ignitions from high-based storms. ...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms... As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage. ..Lyons.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning ignitions from high-based storms. ...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms... As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage. ..Lyons.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western third of the CONUS is expected to keep surface winds weak as flow aloft is moved northward. Beneath the ridge, the air mass over parts of the Desert Southwest should be quite hot, though a backdoor front is expected to move westward over parts of NM. As moisture increases higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms should increase over the southern Rockies/High Plains. A few high-based storms may produce sporadic dry lightning, though the overlap with the most receptive fuels is expected to be poor. The increasing moisture along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. Isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ but, coverage and duration of any elevated fire-weather conditions appears limited. ..Lyons.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western third of the CONUS is expected to keep surface winds weak as flow aloft is moved northward. Beneath the ridge, the air mass over parts of the Desert Southwest should be quite hot, though a backdoor front is expected to move westward over parts of NM. As moisture increases higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms should increase over the southern Rockies/High Plains. A few high-based storms may produce sporadic dry lightning, though the overlap with the most receptive fuels is expected to be poor. The increasing moisture along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. Isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ but, coverage and duration of any elevated fire-weather conditions appears limited. ..Lyons.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more