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WW 407 SEVERE TSTM IA NE 130025Z - 130400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 407 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 725 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Iowa Eastern Nebraska * Effective this Wednesday evening from 725 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A couple of severe supercells are possible over the Watch area this evening. The stronger storms will potentially be capable of very large to giant hail (2 to 3.5 inches in diameter), localized severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northwest of Denison IA to 25 miles south of Omaha NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 405...WW 406... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 33020. ...Smith Read more

MD 1244 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 406... FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1244 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0823 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Areas affected...Portions of east-central Minnesota into far northwestern Wisconsin Concerning...Tornado Watch 406... Valid 130123Z - 130230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 406 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of large hail, locally damaging gusts, and a tornado or two will continue across parts of east-central Minnesota into far northwestern Wisconsin for the next couple hours. DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KDLH indicates an east/west-oriented band of semi-discrete supercells across Aitkin and Pine Counties in east-central MN -- generally focused along an antecedent outflow boundary. Lower/middle 60s dewpoints immediately south of the boundary should continue to provide moderately unstable inflow for these storms, while around 200 m2/s2 0-500m SRH favors persistent low/midlevel mesocyclones. Given the favorable environment and semi-discrete updrafts, these storms will have the best chance of producing a tornado or two and isolated large hail in the near-term. Farther south (just north of the Minneapolis metro area), locally damaging gusts and isolated large hail could accompany a loosely organized band of storms, and a brief tornado cannot be entirely ruled out owing to the aforementioned favorable low-level SRH. However, these storms are impinging on increased MLCINH owing to cooler surface temperatures and slightly lower dewpoints compared to areas north. ..Weinman.. 06/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... LAT...LON 46479373 46569319 46529202 46249159 45799159 45509197 45349238 45289303 45339402 45499437 45679436 45939406 46159395 46479373 Read more

WW 0407 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 407 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE OLU TO 15 W TQE TO 15 ENE TQE TO 40 E DNS. ..JEWELL..06/13/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 407 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC009-029-085-129-137-155-165-130340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDUBON CASS HARRISON MILLS MONTGOMERY POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY NEC021-053-055-153-155-177-130340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURT DODGE DOUGLAS SARPY SAUNDERS WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0407 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 407 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE OLU TO 15 W TQE TO 15 ENE TQE TO 40 E DNS. ..JEWELL..06/13/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 407 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC009-029-085-129-137-155-165-130340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDUBON CASS HARRISON MILLS MONTGOMERY POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY NEC021-053-055-153-155-177-130340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURT DODGE DOUGLAS SARPY SAUNDERS WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1242 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1242 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0617 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Areas affected...far eastern Nebraska into western Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 122317Z - 130145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated cells may produce locally damaging gusts and hail. DISCUSSION...Strong heating has led to an uncapped air mass near a surface trough extending from eastern NE into northwest KS. Visible imagery and radar indicate storms beginning to form near SUX, with additional towering Cu into NE along the boundary. Convergence near this boundary and the uncapped air mass where mid 90s F have been achieved may support isolated severe storms over the next 1-2 hours. This threat is likely to be short lived as capping eventually returns, however, moderate mid to high level northwesterlies will favor southeastward-moving cells capable of hail, and strong gusts cannot be ruled out given the hot and well-mixed boundary layer. ..Jewell/Smith.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 40839691 41369688 41839685 42089671 42349646 42359624 41969573 41449554 40989559 40649570 40429604 40369670 40539680 40839691 Read more

WW 0406 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 406 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S STC TO 20 NNW STC TO 25 WNW DLH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1244 ..WEINMAN..06/13/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 406 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-009-017-025-059-065-095-115-141-130240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN BENTON CARLTON CHISAGO ISANTI KANABEC MILLE LACS PINE SHERBURNE WIC013-095-130240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURNETT POLK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0406 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 406 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S STC TO 20 NNW STC TO 25 WNW DLH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1244 ..WEINMAN..06/13/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 406 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-009-017-025-059-065-095-115-141-130240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN BENTON CARLTON CHISAGO ISANTI KANABEC MILLE LACS PINE SHERBURNE WIC013-095-130240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURNETT POLK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0406 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 406 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S STC TO 20 NNW STC TO 25 WNW DLH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1244 ..WEINMAN..06/13/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 406 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-009-017-025-059-065-095-115-141-130240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN BENTON CARLTON CHISAGO ISANTI KANABEC MILLE LACS PINE SHERBURNE WIC013-095-130240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURNETT POLK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 406 TORNADO MN WI 122355Z - 130300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 406 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 655 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Minnesota Northwest Wisconsin * Effective this Wednesday evening from 655 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Several supercells will continue east-southeast and traverse a moist/unstable airmass in an environment with increasing low-level shear. Large to very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter), damaging gusts, and a couple of tornadoes are possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Saint Cloud MN to 100 miles east northeast of Saint Cloud MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 405... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Smith Read more

WW 0405 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 405 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW FAR TO 45 NW ELO TO 20 SW GNA TO 20 SE AXN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1244 ..WEINMAN..06/13/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...MPX...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 405 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC007-069-077-089-113-135-130240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELTRAMI KITTSON LAKE OF THE WOODS MARSHALL PENNINGTON ROSEAU NDC067-099-130240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PEMBINA WALSH WIC003-005-007-031-129-130240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BARRON BAYFIELD Read more

WW 0405 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 405 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW FAR TO 45 NW ELO TO 20 SW GNA TO 20 SE AXN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1244 ..WEINMAN..06/13/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...MPX...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 405 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC007-069-077-089-113-135-130240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELTRAMI KITTSON LAKE OF THE WOODS MARSHALL PENNINGTON ROSEAU NDC067-099-130240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PEMBINA WALSH WIC003-005-007-031-129-130240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BARRON BAYFIELD Read more

WW 0405 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 405 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW FAR TO 45 NW ELO TO 20 SW GNA TO 20 SE AXN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1244 ..WEINMAN..06/13/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...MPX...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 405 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC007-069-077-089-113-135-130240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELTRAMI KITTSON LAKE OF THE WOODS MARSHALL PENNINGTON ROSEAU NDC067-099-130240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PEMBINA WALSH WIC003-005-007-031-129-130240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BARRON BAYFIELD Read more

WW 405 SEVERE TSTM MN ND SD WI LS 122030Z - 130300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 405 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 330 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of northern and central Minnesota eastern North Dakota far northeastern South Dakota northwestern Wisconsin Lake Superior * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected by 4:30 PM or so across the eastern North Dakota/northwestern Minnesota area, with storms quickly becoming severe. Very large/destructive hail, and strong/damaging wind gusts are expected, with a tornado or two also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north of Fargo ND to 35 miles east of Duluth MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29040. ...Goss Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NE INTO PARTS OF MN/WI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Upper Midwest and central Plains this evening. ...Parts of MN/WI into IA/eastern NE... A few supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of MN, within an environment characterized by moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear. These storms may persist for a few hours this evening and spread into parts of WI, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and a couple tornadoes. An eventual weakening trend is expected later tonight as MLCINH continues to increase regionwide. Farther south, an intense supercell cluster is ongoing near the NE/IA border, north of Omaha, within a strongly unstable and favorable sheared environment. This cluster may continue south-southeastward along the instability gradient, before storms weaken later tonight due to increasing MLCINH. The potential for very large hail and isolated severe gusts will continue as long as this cluster persists. Overnight, some guidance (including recent HRRR runs) suggest potential for elevated storm development from SD into southwest MN. Moderate elevated buoyancy and sufficient effective shear could support a strong storm or two with an isolated hail threat. ..Dean.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NE INTO PARTS OF MN/WI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Upper Midwest and central Plains this evening. ...Parts of MN/WI into IA/eastern NE... A few supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of MN, within an environment characterized by moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear. These storms may persist for a few hours this evening and spread into parts of WI, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and a couple tornadoes. An eventual weakening trend is expected later tonight as MLCINH continues to increase regionwide. Farther south, an intense supercell cluster is ongoing near the NE/IA border, north of Omaha, within a strongly unstable and favorable sheared environment. This cluster may continue south-southeastward along the instability gradient, before storms weaken later tonight due to increasing MLCINH. The potential for very large hail and isolated severe gusts will continue as long as this cluster persists. Overnight, some guidance (including recent HRRR runs) suggest potential for elevated storm development from SD into southwest MN. Moderate elevated buoyancy and sufficient effective shear could support a strong storm or two with an isolated hail threat. ..Dean.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NE INTO PARTS OF MN/WI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Upper Midwest and central Plains this evening. ...Parts of MN/WI into IA/eastern NE... A few supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of MN, within an environment characterized by moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear. These storms may persist for a few hours this evening and spread into parts of WI, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and a couple tornadoes. An eventual weakening trend is expected later tonight as MLCINH continues to increase regionwide. Farther south, an intense supercell cluster is ongoing near the NE/IA border, north of Omaha, within a strongly unstable and favorable sheared environment. This cluster may continue south-southeastward along the instability gradient, before storms weaken later tonight due to increasing MLCINH. The potential for very large hail and isolated severe gusts will continue as long as this cluster persists. Overnight, some guidance (including recent HRRR runs) suggest potential for elevated storm development from SD into southwest MN. Moderate elevated buoyancy and sufficient effective shear could support a strong storm or two with an isolated hail threat. ..Dean.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NE INTO PARTS OF MN/WI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Upper Midwest and central Plains this evening. ...Parts of MN/WI into IA/eastern NE... A few supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of MN, within an environment characterized by moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear. These storms may persist for a few hours this evening and spread into parts of WI, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and a couple tornadoes. An eventual weakening trend is expected later tonight as MLCINH continues to increase regionwide. Farther south, an intense supercell cluster is ongoing near the NE/IA border, north of Omaha, within a strongly unstable and favorable sheared environment. This cluster may continue south-southeastward along the instability gradient, before storms weaken later tonight due to increasing MLCINH. The potential for very large hail and isolated severe gusts will continue as long as this cluster persists. Overnight, some guidance (including recent HRRR runs) suggest potential for elevated storm development from SD into southwest MN. Moderate elevated buoyancy and sufficient effective shear could support a strong storm or two with an isolated hail threat. ..Dean.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NE INTO PARTS OF MN/WI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Upper Midwest and central Plains this evening. ...Parts of MN/WI into IA/eastern NE... A few supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of MN, within an environment characterized by moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear. These storms may persist for a few hours this evening and spread into parts of WI, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and a couple tornadoes. An eventual weakening trend is expected later tonight as MLCINH continues to increase regionwide. Farther south, an intense supercell cluster is ongoing near the NE/IA border, north of Omaha, within a strongly unstable and favorable sheared environment. This cluster may continue south-southeastward along the instability gradient, before storms weaken later tonight due to increasing MLCINH. The potential for very large hail and isolated severe gusts will continue as long as this cluster persists. Overnight, some guidance (including recent HRRR runs) suggest potential for elevated storm development from SD into southwest MN. Moderate elevated buoyancy and sufficient effective shear could support a strong storm or two with an isolated hail threat. ..Dean.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NE INTO PARTS OF MN/WI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Upper Midwest and central Plains this evening. ...Parts of MN/WI into IA/eastern NE... A few supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of MN, within an environment characterized by moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear. These storms may persist for a few hours this evening and spread into parts of WI, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and a couple tornadoes. An eventual weakening trend is expected later tonight as MLCINH continues to increase regionwide. Farther south, an intense supercell cluster is ongoing near the NE/IA border, north of Omaha, within a strongly unstable and favorable sheared environment. This cluster may continue south-southeastward along the instability gradient, before storms weaken later tonight due to increasing MLCINH. The potential for very large hail and isolated severe gusts will continue as long as this cluster persists. Overnight, some guidance (including recent HRRR runs) suggest potential for elevated storm development from SD into southwest MN. Moderate elevated buoyancy and sufficient effective shear could support a strong storm or two with an isolated hail threat. ..Dean.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NE INTO PARTS OF MN/WI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Upper Midwest and central Plains this evening. ...Parts of MN/WI into IA/eastern NE... A few supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of MN, within an environment characterized by moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear. These storms may persist for a few hours this evening and spread into parts of WI, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and a couple tornadoes. An eventual weakening trend is expected later tonight as MLCINH continues to increase regionwide. Farther south, an intense supercell cluster is ongoing near the NE/IA border, north of Omaha, within a strongly unstable and favorable sheared environment. This cluster may continue south-southeastward along the instability gradient, before storms weaken later tonight due to increasing MLCINH. The potential for very large hail and isolated severe gusts will continue as long as this cluster persists. Overnight, some guidance (including recent HRRR runs) suggest potential for elevated storm development from SD into southwest MN. Moderate elevated buoyancy and sufficient effective shear could support a strong storm or two with an isolated hail threat. ..Dean.. 06/13/2024 Read more