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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range has come into better agreement regarding the progression of a low-amplitude, lead shortwave trough that is expected to progress eastward into the central Plains on D4/Sunday, ahead of a deeper shortwave trough expected to move through the northern Rockies/northern High Plains. Low-level moisture advection across the Plains is expected to bring mid 60s dewpoints into KS, with lower 60s dewpoints likely reaching NE. Steep mid-level lapse rates are anticipated atop this low-level moisture, contributing to moderate/strong buoyancy across much of the central Plains during the afternoon. Low-level convergence along the dryline combined with strengthening large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave is expected to result in convective initiation. Deep-layer vertical shear will likely be sufficient for supercells capable of all severe hazards. Additional severe appears possible across the central Plains on D5/Monday as a cold front pushes eastward/southeastward across the Upper MS Valley and central Plains. However, uncertainty regarding the influence of D4/Sunday's thunderstorms as well as a more neutral large-scale environment preclude introducing a 15% area with this outlook. This cold front is forecast to continue eastward/southeastward on D6/Tuesday, likely progressing through OK and into TX as well as through much of the Mid MS Valley. Thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front, with environmental conditions appearing favorable for severe over a large area from TX through the Mid MS Valley. However, most of guidance has only come into agreement regarding this scenario on the most recent runs. Additionally, timing differences within the guidance make it difficult to assess where the most favorable areas for severe will be. These factors result in predictability limitations, with uncertainty too great to delineate any outlook area. Another shortwave trough may enter the central/southern Plains on D8/Thursday, but guidance remains varied on the strength and timing of this wave. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range has come into better agreement regarding the progression of a low-amplitude, lead shortwave trough that is expected to progress eastward into the central Plains on D4/Sunday, ahead of a deeper shortwave trough expected to move through the northern Rockies/northern High Plains. Low-level moisture advection across the Plains is expected to bring mid 60s dewpoints into KS, with lower 60s dewpoints likely reaching NE. Steep mid-level lapse rates are anticipated atop this low-level moisture, contributing to moderate/strong buoyancy across much of the central Plains during the afternoon. Low-level convergence along the dryline combined with strengthening large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave is expected to result in convective initiation. Deep-layer vertical shear will likely be sufficient for supercells capable of all severe hazards. Additional severe appears possible across the central Plains on D5/Monday as a cold front pushes eastward/southeastward across the Upper MS Valley and central Plains. However, uncertainty regarding the influence of D4/Sunday's thunderstorms as well as a more neutral large-scale environment preclude introducing a 15% area with this outlook. This cold front is forecast to continue eastward/southeastward on D6/Tuesday, likely progressing through OK and into TX as well as through much of the Mid MS Valley. Thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front, with environmental conditions appearing favorable for severe over a large area from TX through the Mid MS Valley. However, most of guidance has only come into agreement regarding this scenario on the most recent runs. Additionally, timing differences within the guidance make it difficult to assess where the most favorable areas for severe will be. These factors result in predictability limitations, with uncertainty too great to delineate any outlook area. Another shortwave trough may enter the central/southern Plains on D8/Thursday, but guidance remains varied on the strength and timing of this wave. Read more

MD 0799 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO WESTERN NORTH TX AND SOUTHWEST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0799 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Areas affected...Parts of the TX South Plains into western north TX and southwest OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 160846Z - 161015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The threat for isolated hail and localized strong/damaging gusts may persist through the overnight hours. DISCUSSION...A small thunderstorm cluster, which has produced a few severe gusts within the West Texas Mesonet, is moving east of Lubbock early this morning. This cluster continues to show some organization, with notable pressure rises in its wake, and isolated severe gusts will remain possible as it continues to move eastward within a modestly favorable environment. Other strong cells have developed in a band extending east from the cluster, with golfball-size hail recently reported in Wilbarger County. While this convection is elevated atop a relatively cool/stable near-surface layer, MUCAPE of around 1000 J/kg and sufficient effective shear could support maintenance or some intensification of these ongoing storms in the hours prior to sunrise. Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support an isolated hail threat, while rather dry subcloud layers could support a continued threat for localized strong to severe gusts. ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 33990078 34070065 34100008 34269968 34539899 34699831 33899802 33599862 33439912 33300010 33250092 33390118 33990078 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast States and Carolinas on Saturday. ...Portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.. A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Mid MS Valley through east TX early Saturday morning before progressing eastward through the TN Valley and Southeast during the day. Moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, stretching from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Carolinas early in the period before gradually shifting southeastward over time. A convective line will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning, although its location varies considerably within the guidance. Low-level airmass ahead of this convective across much of the Southeast and Carolinas will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s, contributing to moderate buoyancy ahead of the approaching convective line. General expectation is for this line to persist as it moves eastward across the AL, GA, and SC, with some isolated damaging gusts possible. This line is not currently expected to impact NC, but a few thunderstorms are still possible in the afternoon amid low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface low. Buoyancy will be modest, but westerly flow aloft should be strong enough for a few more organized storm structures capable of damaging gusts and/or isolated hail. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to move eastward from Saskatchewan and the northern Plains through Manitoba and the Upper Midwest on Saturday. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward through the Upper Midwest just ahead of the shortwave, with isolated thunderstorm development possible along this front. A storm or two could produce damaging gusts, but the overall coverage is currently expected to remain below the threshold for introducing severe probabilities. ..Mosier.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast States and Carolinas on Saturday. ...Portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.. A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Mid MS Valley through east TX early Saturday morning before progressing eastward through the TN Valley and Southeast during the day. Moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, stretching from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Carolinas early in the period before gradually shifting southeastward over time. A convective line will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning, although its location varies considerably within the guidance. Low-level airmass ahead of this convective across much of the Southeast and Carolinas will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s, contributing to moderate buoyancy ahead of the approaching convective line. General expectation is for this line to persist as it moves eastward across the AL, GA, and SC, with some isolated damaging gusts possible. This line is not currently expected to impact NC, but a few thunderstorms are still possible in the afternoon amid low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface low. Buoyancy will be modest, but westerly flow aloft should be strong enough for a few more organized storm structures capable of damaging gusts and/or isolated hail. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to move eastward from Saskatchewan and the northern Plains through Manitoba and the Upper Midwest on Saturday. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward through the Upper Midwest just ahead of the shortwave, with isolated thunderstorm development possible along this front. A storm or two could produce damaging gusts, but the overall coverage is currently expected to remain below the threshold for introducing severe probabilities. ..Mosier.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast States and Carolinas on Saturday. ...Portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.. A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Mid MS Valley through east TX early Saturday morning before progressing eastward through the TN Valley and Southeast during the day. Moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, stretching from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Carolinas early in the period before gradually shifting southeastward over time. A convective line will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning, although its location varies considerably within the guidance. Low-level airmass ahead of this convective across much of the Southeast and Carolinas will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s, contributing to moderate buoyancy ahead of the approaching convective line. General expectation is for this line to persist as it moves eastward across the AL, GA, and SC, with some isolated damaging gusts possible. This line is not currently expected to impact NC, but a few thunderstorms are still possible in the afternoon amid low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface low. Buoyancy will be modest, but westerly flow aloft should be strong enough for a few more organized storm structures capable of damaging gusts and/or isolated hail. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to move eastward from Saskatchewan and the northern Plains through Manitoba and the Upper Midwest on Saturday. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward through the Upper Midwest just ahead of the shortwave, with isolated thunderstorm development possible along this front. A storm or two could produce damaging gusts, but the overall coverage is currently expected to remain below the threshold for introducing severe probabilities. ..Mosier.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast States and Carolinas on Saturday. ...Portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.. A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Mid MS Valley through east TX early Saturday morning before progressing eastward through the TN Valley and Southeast during the day. Moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, stretching from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Carolinas early in the period before gradually shifting southeastward over time. A convective line will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning, although its location varies considerably within the guidance. Low-level airmass ahead of this convective across much of the Southeast and Carolinas will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s, contributing to moderate buoyancy ahead of the approaching convective line. General expectation is for this line to persist as it moves eastward across the AL, GA, and SC, with some isolated damaging gusts possible. This line is not currently expected to impact NC, but a few thunderstorms are still possible in the afternoon amid low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface low. Buoyancy will be modest, but westerly flow aloft should be strong enough for a few more organized storm structures capable of damaging gusts and/or isolated hail. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to move eastward from Saskatchewan and the northern Plains through Manitoba and the Upper Midwest on Saturday. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward through the Upper Midwest just ahead of the shortwave, with isolated thunderstorm development possible along this front. A storm or two could produce damaging gusts, but the overall coverage is currently expected to remain below the threshold for introducing severe probabilities. ..Mosier.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast States and Carolinas on Saturday. ...Portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.. A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Mid MS Valley through east TX early Saturday morning before progressing eastward through the TN Valley and Southeast during the day. Moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, stretching from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Carolinas early in the period before gradually shifting southeastward over time. A convective line will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning, although its location varies considerably within the guidance. Low-level airmass ahead of this convective across much of the Southeast and Carolinas will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s, contributing to moderate buoyancy ahead of the approaching convective line. General expectation is for this line to persist as it moves eastward across the AL, GA, and SC, with some isolated damaging gusts possible. This line is not currently expected to impact NC, but a few thunderstorms are still possible in the afternoon amid low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface low. Buoyancy will be modest, but westerly flow aloft should be strong enough for a few more organized storm structures capable of damaging gusts and/or isolated hail. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to move eastward from Saskatchewan and the northern Plains through Manitoba and the Upper Midwest on Saturday. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward through the Upper Midwest just ahead of the shortwave, with isolated thunderstorm development possible along this front. A storm or two could produce damaging gusts, but the overall coverage is currently expected to remain below the threshold for introducing severe probabilities. ..Mosier.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast States and Carolinas on Saturday. ...Portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.. A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Mid MS Valley through east TX early Saturday morning before progressing eastward through the TN Valley and Southeast during the day. Moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, stretching from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Carolinas early in the period before gradually shifting southeastward over time. A convective line will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning, although its location varies considerably within the guidance. Low-level airmass ahead of this convective across much of the Southeast and Carolinas will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s, contributing to moderate buoyancy ahead of the approaching convective line. General expectation is for this line to persist as it moves eastward across the AL, GA, and SC, with some isolated damaging gusts possible. This line is not currently expected to impact NC, but a few thunderstorms are still possible in the afternoon amid low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface low. Buoyancy will be modest, but westerly flow aloft should be strong enough for a few more organized storm structures capable of damaging gusts and/or isolated hail. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to move eastward from Saskatchewan and the northern Plains through Manitoba and the Upper Midwest on Saturday. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward through the Upper Midwest just ahead of the shortwave, with isolated thunderstorm development possible along this front. A storm or two could produce damaging gusts, but the overall coverage is currently expected to remain below the threshold for introducing severe probabilities. ..Mosier.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast States and Carolinas on Saturday. ...Portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.. A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Mid MS Valley through east TX early Saturday morning before progressing eastward through the TN Valley and Southeast during the day. Moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, stretching from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Carolinas early in the period before gradually shifting southeastward over time. A convective line will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning, although its location varies considerably within the guidance. Low-level airmass ahead of this convective across much of the Southeast and Carolinas will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s, contributing to moderate buoyancy ahead of the approaching convective line. General expectation is for this line to persist as it moves eastward across the AL, GA, and SC, with some isolated damaging gusts possible. This line is not currently expected to impact NC, but a few thunderstorms are still possible in the afternoon amid low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface low. Buoyancy will be modest, but westerly flow aloft should be strong enough for a few more organized storm structures capable of damaging gusts and/or isolated hail. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to move eastward from Saskatchewan and the northern Plains through Manitoba and the Upper Midwest on Saturday. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward through the Upper Midwest just ahead of the shortwave, with isolated thunderstorm development possible along this front. A storm or two could produce damaging gusts, but the overall coverage is currently expected to remain below the threshold for introducing severe probabilities. ..Mosier.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains today, supporting strong surface lee troughing over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Friday). A widespread, strong surface wind field will develop over Wyoming and points eastward as a result. However, guidance varies considerably in terms of how low RH will drop by afternoon peak heating, with some guidance members showing RH dropping as low as 15 percent in some spots, while other members show RH staying well above 25 percent in many locales. When also considering recent rainfall that portions of the northern Plains has received in the past week, fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread should also be mediocre. Fire weather highlights have been withheld given the aforementioned uncertainties with RH and fuels. Nonetheless, localized instances of wildfire growth cannot be ruled out where dry fuel beds exist given the strong winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains today, supporting strong surface lee troughing over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Friday). A widespread, strong surface wind field will develop over Wyoming and points eastward as a result. However, guidance varies considerably in terms of how low RH will drop by afternoon peak heating, with some guidance members showing RH dropping as low as 15 percent in some spots, while other members show RH staying well above 25 percent in many locales. When also considering recent rainfall that portions of the northern Plains has received in the past week, fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread should also be mediocre. Fire weather highlights have been withheld given the aforementioned uncertainties with RH and fuels. Nonetheless, localized instances of wildfire growth cannot be ruled out where dry fuel beds exist given the strong winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains today, supporting strong surface lee troughing over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Friday). A widespread, strong surface wind field will develop over Wyoming and points eastward as a result. However, guidance varies considerably in terms of how low RH will drop by afternoon peak heating, with some guidance members showing RH dropping as low as 15 percent in some spots, while other members show RH staying well above 25 percent in many locales. When also considering recent rainfall that portions of the northern Plains has received in the past week, fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread should also be mediocre. Fire weather highlights have been withheld given the aforementioned uncertainties with RH and fuels. Nonetheless, localized instances of wildfire growth cannot be ruled out where dry fuel beds exist given the strong winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains today, supporting strong surface lee troughing over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Friday). A widespread, strong surface wind field will develop over Wyoming and points eastward as a result. However, guidance varies considerably in terms of how low RH will drop by afternoon peak heating, with some guidance members showing RH dropping as low as 15 percent in some spots, while other members show RH staying well above 25 percent in many locales. When also considering recent rainfall that portions of the northern Plains has received in the past week, fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread should also be mediocre. Fire weather highlights have been withheld given the aforementioned uncertainties with RH and fuels. Nonetheless, localized instances of wildfire growth cannot be ruled out where dry fuel beds exist given the strong winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains today, supporting strong surface lee troughing over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Friday). A widespread, strong surface wind field will develop over Wyoming and points eastward as a result. However, guidance varies considerably in terms of how low RH will drop by afternoon peak heating, with some guidance members showing RH dropping as low as 15 percent in some spots, while other members show RH staying well above 25 percent in many locales. When also considering recent rainfall that portions of the northern Plains has received in the past week, fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread should also be mediocre. Fire weather highlights have been withheld given the aforementioned uncertainties with RH and fuels. Nonetheless, localized instances of wildfire growth cannot be ruled out where dry fuel beds exist given the strong winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains today, supporting strong surface lee troughing over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Friday). A widespread, strong surface wind field will develop over Wyoming and points eastward as a result. However, guidance varies considerably in terms of how low RH will drop by afternoon peak heating, with some guidance members showing RH dropping as low as 15 percent in some spots, while other members show RH staying well above 25 percent in many locales. When also considering recent rainfall that portions of the northern Plains has received in the past week, fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread should also be mediocre. Fire weather highlights have been withheld given the aforementioned uncertainties with RH and fuels. Nonetheless, localized instances of wildfire growth cannot be ruled out where dry fuel beds exist given the strong winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains today, supporting strong surface lee troughing over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Friday). A widespread, strong surface wind field will develop over Wyoming and points eastward as a result. However, guidance varies considerably in terms of how low RH will drop by afternoon peak heating, with some guidance members showing RH dropping as low as 15 percent in some spots, while other members show RH staying well above 25 percent in many locales. When also considering recent rainfall that portions of the northern Plains has received in the past week, fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread should also be mediocre. Fire weather highlights have been withheld given the aforementioned uncertainties with RH and fuels. Nonetheless, localized instances of wildfire growth cannot be ruled out where dry fuel beds exist given the strong winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains as a weak surface low develops near the Rio Grande today. Behind the low, isallobaric and downslope northwesterly flow will overspread the Trans Pecos region of Texas during the afternoon. 15+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains as a weak surface low develops near the Rio Grande today. Behind the low, isallobaric and downslope northwesterly flow will overspread the Trans Pecos region of Texas during the afternoon. 15+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains as a weak surface low develops near the Rio Grande today. Behind the low, isallobaric and downslope northwesterly flow will overspread the Trans Pecos region of Texas during the afternoon. 15+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more