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MD 1325 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435... FOR WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1325 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...West Central Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 435... Valid 182058Z - 182200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 435 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for large hail, damaging winds, and some landspout tornadoes continues for the watch area. DISCUSSION...The severe thunderstorm threat continues across portions of west-central Kansas as a cold front progresses slowly southeastward. Additional storm development is expected further south and west along the cold front this afternoon. The primary threat is for large hail and damaging wind gusts, as initially superceullar storms begin to grow upscale into linear segments. Additionally, SPC Mesoanalysis indicates ongoing supercells in west-central Kansas are located in a region of large surface vorticity along the frontal boundary. With relatively slow boundary and storm motions supportive of long residence times, enhanced stretching is favorable for landspout tornado activity. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA... LAT...LON 37040175 37540137 37850105 38240073 38660051 39080012 39539974 39619942 39459902 38949905 38109960 37619991 37160043 36990091 36950151 37040175 Read more

MD 1323 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1323 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...portions of far northwestern Pennsylvania into far southwestern New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 182024Z - 182200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A localized concentration of damaging gusts is possible over the next few hours along the PA/NY border region. Given the spatially and temporally confined nature of the damaging gust threat, a WW issuance remains unlikely. DISCUSSION...An organized cluster of thunderstorms with a history of damaging gusts (and at least one measured 50+ kt gust) has developed over far northeastern OH. This cluster is slowly propagating northeast as convective outflow spreads to the southeast, overturning the ambient airmass in the process. Weak deep-layer west-southwesterly flow pivoting around the Mid-Atlantic anticyclone suggests that the ongoing cluster, should it persist, will continue moving east-northeast. As such, the northeast flank of the ongoing cluster may not gust out and undercut convection for at least a few more hours. In this time-frame, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE will support stronger storm cores capable of producing a focused corridor locally damaging gusts. However, the damaging gusts should be contained within a small area, and convection may become outflow dominant and undercut sooner than expected. A WW issuance remains unlikely in the short-term, but convective trends will continue to be monitored for the possibility of greater upscale growth and subsequent damaging wind potential. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 41608068 42008008 42387943 42487866 42177834 41667850 41387912 41257994 41278051 41338069 41608068 Read more

WW 435 SEVERE TSTM KS 181940Z - 190300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 435 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central Kansas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to strengthen along a cold front this afternoon and evening while posing a threat for large to very large hail up to around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter and severe wind gusts of 60-80 mph. The threat for severe winds may increase through the evening if one or more bowing clusters develops and spreads eastward into central Kansas. A tornado or two also appears possible, especially if any supercells can persist across southwest Kansas this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northeast of Russell KS to 35 miles east of Liberal KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 433...WW 434... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1322 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 433... FOR CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1322 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...central to northeast MN Concerning...Tornado Watch 433... Valid 182018Z - 182145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 433 continues. SUMMARY...Primary tornado threat within WW 433 into early evening appears to exist across central to northeast Minnesota with semi-discrete supercells near the surface warm front. DISCUSSION...More prominent, deeper convection within WW 433 has been centered across west-central to northeast MN. Multiple, low-level supercells have been noted along the surface warm front thus far from central MN northeastward. Additional supercells may develop farther south-southwest with modified 18Z MPX sounding indicative of MLCAPE from 2000-2500 J/kg and 0-1 km SRH around 200 m2/s2. With weak effective shear above the LCL, tornado and damaging wind should remain the primary threats as hail magnitudes remain marginal. These threats will likely focus through early evening from the Brainerd Lakes to the Iron Range and Arrowhead regions. ..Grams.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 47239393 47779219 48069146 48179108 48089063 47979043 47669095 47179179 46869228 46289254 45979311 45729482 45799522 46189542 46669459 47239393 Read more

WW 0433 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 433 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE BKX TO 25 NE AXN TO 45 NNE ELO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1322 ..THORNTON..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 433 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-003-009-013-015-017-019-023-025-031-033-035-037-043-047- 053-059-063-065-067-075-079-081-083-085-091-093-095-097-101-103- 105-111-115-117-121-123-127-129-131-133-137-139-141-143-145-147- 151-153-161-163-165-171-173-182240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN ANOKA BENTON BLUE EARTH BROWN CARLTON CARVER CHIPPEWA CHISAGO COOK COTTONWOOD CROW WING DAKOTA FARIBAULT FREEBORN HENNEPIN ISANTI JACKSON KANABEC KANDIYOHI LAKE LE SUEUR LINCOLN LYON MCLEOD MARTIN MEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISON MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES OTTER TAIL PINE PIPESTONE POPE RAMSEY REDWOOD RENVILLE RICE ROCK ST. LOUIS SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1321 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1321 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...West Central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181912Z - 182045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Weather watch issuance is expected by 20Z-21Z, primarily for a damaging wind and hail threat as storms develop along a cold front in west-central Kansas. DISCUSSION...A cold front progressing slowly southeastward through west-central Kansas is expected to be the focus of severe thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. The warm sector ahead of the cold front is characterized by surface dewpoints in the upper 60s F, and temperatures already warming into the mid to upper 90s F, resulting in 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE that supports deep convection. The more substantial deep layer shear (45-55 kts) is confined to the cool side of the boundary, with the warm sector sector shear being more meager (25-30 kts). As the cold front continues to progress slowly southeast and the boundary layer ahead of it continues to warm, thunderstorm development is expected by 20Z. Given the lack of deep layer shear ahead of the cold front, and boundary parallel shear vectors, storm mode is expected to be predominantly linear, though storms may exhibit transient supercell characteristics before growing upscale. Given the large T/Td spreads in the boundary layer, and high mixed-layer LCL heights evident in the SPC mesoanalysis and RAP forecast profiles, damaging wind gusts are expected - a few of which may be > 65 kts. Given the potential for initial supercell storm mode and strong buoyancy, a threat for significant hail may develop with any cells that remain discrete. A tornado threat cannot be ruled out with any discrete convection in southwest Kansas as low-level shear will improve as the nocturnal low-level jet develops. With increasing severe risk this afternoon likely, a weather watch is expected. ..Halbert/Lyons/Gleason.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC... LAT...LON 37930101 38330063 38630014 39019966 39069918 39089851 39079824 38989803 38749784 38649769 38309762 37899827 37349939 37090019 37080094 37540103 37930101 Read more