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WW 0442 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0442 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0441 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0441 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jun 21 18:00:02 UTC 2024.

MD 1352 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHEAST
Mesoscale Discussion 1352 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Areas affected...southern New England and the Northeast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 211538Z - 211745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered, generally pulse-type thunderstorms will likely develop through this afternoon across parts of the Northeast into southern New England. Sporadic downbursts capable of strong gusts from 45-60 mph should yield localized tree damage. The relatively disorganized/marginal nature of the threat should preclude severe thunderstorm watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Initial thunderstorm development is underway, mainly across parts of NY, along/ahead of a southward-sagging west/east-oriented cold front. Additional storms will likely develop southward over the higher terrain of central PA and eastward across southern New England over the next few hours. The overall kinematic/thermodynamic environment appears to be more subdued relative to yesterday in eastern NY and New England. Modest mid-level westerlies are generally aligned with the frontal orientation and predominately to the cool side of the boundary. Weak deep-layer shear will dominate the warm-moist sector to the south. With weaker mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE should largely range from 1500-2000 J/kg. While small to perhaps marginally severe hail around 1 inch diameter is possible, the predominant threat should be from localized strong gusts in downbursts. ..Grams/Hart.. 06/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF... CTP...PBZ... LAT...LON 43547563 43467438 43167210 42797096 42207106 41847095 41357173 40957341 40987574 40717686 39917830 39897912 40307912 42657736 43547563 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MISSOURI...IOWA...ILLINOIS...AND WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible across the upper Mississippi Valley and upper Midwest on Saturday. Damaging wind, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are all possible. ...East-central Great Plains into the upper Midwest... A convectively augmented mid-level disturbance will move east across WI into MI during the morning into the early afternoon. Showers/thunderstorms will likely accompany this feature with some strong to severe risk possible, especially on a localized basis over the northern half of Lower MI as some heating contributes to destabilization. In the wake of morning convection, moderate to locally strong buoyancy is expected to develop from eastern KS/southeast NE northeastward into parts of southern WI/northern IL, along/south of an outflow-reinforced front. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front by late afternoon into the evening from northern MO to the Lake MI vicinity. Effective shear generally in the 30-40 kt range will support a few organized cells/clusters. Relatively strong heating and large PW will support strong/damaging gusts as the most likely hazard. Warm 500-mb temperatures (-6 to -8 deg C) will tend to limit the overall magnitude of buoyancy and the potential hail risk with the stronger cells. A tornado or two will also be possible, in the presence of moderate low-level southwesterly flow and modestly enhanced SRH. Farther east, intensification of morning convection and/or afternoon redevelopment will be possible across parts of Lower MI. While instability will be weaker compared to areas father west, somewhat enhanced low/midlevel flow will support a threat for isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado. ...South-central AZ... Model forecast soundings show seasonally high PW across the Sonoran Desert on Saturday. Intense surface heating will result in surface temperatures quickly rising into the 100s across the lower desert with mainly 50s deg F dewpoints. Very steep 0-3 km lapse rates and weak buoyancy will probably lead to isolated thunderstorm development initially in orographically favored locations. Existing storms' cold pools may potentially interact and promote additional storms during the evening. The environment in which these pulse-like thunderstorms develop will support large evaporative potential with the downdrafts. The more water-laden cores will possibly yield a risk for severe gusts (60-75 mph) before this activity diminishes in the 03-05z period. ...Parts of the Northeast... Model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Northeast during the afternoon and evening, within a warm, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment along/south of a cold front draped across parts of New England. Isolated strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) are possible with the stronger storms. ...Parts of ND... No change in thinking from the previous forecast. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across parts of SK/MB on Saturday, with some influence of this shortwave expected to extend into parts of ND. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon/evening, with moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear supporting potential for a few organized storms capable of isolated hail and strong/severe gusts. ..Smith.. 06/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MISSOURI...IOWA...ILLINOIS...AND WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible across the upper Mississippi Valley and upper Midwest on Saturday. Damaging wind, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are all possible. ...East-central Great Plains into the upper Midwest... A convectively augmented mid-level disturbance will move east across WI into MI during the morning into the early afternoon. Showers/thunderstorms will likely accompany this feature with some strong to severe risk possible, especially on a localized basis over the northern half of Lower MI as some heating contributes to destabilization. In the wake of morning convection, moderate to locally strong buoyancy is expected to develop from eastern KS/southeast NE northeastward into parts of southern WI/northern IL, along/south of an outflow-reinforced front. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front by late afternoon into the evening from northern MO to the Lake MI vicinity. Effective shear generally in the 30-40 kt range will support a few organized cells/clusters. Relatively strong heating and large PW will support strong/damaging gusts as the most likely hazard. Warm 500-mb temperatures (-6 to -8 deg C) will tend to limit the overall magnitude of buoyancy and the potential hail risk with the stronger cells. A tornado or two will also be possible, in the presence of moderate low-level southwesterly flow and modestly enhanced SRH. Farther east, intensification of morning convection and/or afternoon redevelopment will be possible across parts of Lower MI. While instability will be weaker compared to areas father west, somewhat enhanced low/midlevel flow will support a threat for isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado. ...South-central AZ... Model forecast soundings show seasonally high PW across the Sonoran Desert on Saturday. Intense surface heating will result in surface temperatures quickly rising into the 100s across the lower desert with mainly 50s deg F dewpoints. Very steep 0-3 km lapse rates and weak buoyancy will probably lead to isolated thunderstorm development initially in orographically favored locations. Existing storms' cold pools may potentially interact and promote additional storms during the evening. The environment in which these pulse-like thunderstorms develop will support large evaporative potential with the downdrafts. The more water-laden cores will possibly yield a risk for severe gusts (60-75 mph) before this activity diminishes in the 03-05z period. ...Parts of the Northeast... Model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Northeast during the afternoon and evening, within a warm, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment along/south of a cold front draped across parts of New England. Isolated strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) are possible with the stronger storms. ...Parts of ND... No change in thinking from the previous forecast. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across parts of SK/MB on Saturday, with some influence of this shortwave expected to extend into parts of ND. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon/evening, with moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear supporting potential for a few organized storms capable of isolated hail and strong/severe gusts. ..Smith.. 06/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MISSOURI...IOWA...ILLINOIS...AND WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible across the upper Mississippi Valley and upper Midwest on Saturday. Damaging wind, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are all possible. ...East-central Great Plains into the upper Midwest... A convectively augmented mid-level disturbance will move east across WI into MI during the morning into the early afternoon. Showers/thunderstorms will likely accompany this feature with some strong to severe risk possible, especially on a localized basis over the northern half of Lower MI as some heating contributes to destabilization. In the wake of morning convection, moderate to locally strong buoyancy is expected to develop from eastern KS/southeast NE northeastward into parts of southern WI/northern IL, along/south of an outflow-reinforced front. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front by late afternoon into the evening from northern MO to the Lake MI vicinity. Effective shear generally in the 30-40 kt range will support a few organized cells/clusters. Relatively strong heating and large PW will support strong/damaging gusts as the most likely hazard. Warm 500-mb temperatures (-6 to -8 deg C) will tend to limit the overall magnitude of buoyancy and the potential hail risk with the stronger cells. A tornado or two will also be possible, in the presence of moderate low-level southwesterly flow and modestly enhanced SRH. Farther east, intensification of morning convection and/or afternoon redevelopment will be possible across parts of Lower MI. While instability will be weaker compared to areas father west, somewhat enhanced low/midlevel flow will support a threat for isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado. ...South-central AZ... Model forecast soundings show seasonally high PW across the Sonoran Desert on Saturday. Intense surface heating will result in surface temperatures quickly rising into the 100s across the lower desert with mainly 50s deg F dewpoints. Very steep 0-3 km lapse rates and weak buoyancy will probably lead to isolated thunderstorm development initially in orographically favored locations. Existing storms' cold pools may potentially interact and promote additional storms during the evening. The environment in which these pulse-like thunderstorms develop will support large evaporative potential with the downdrafts. The more water-laden cores will possibly yield a risk for severe gusts (60-75 mph) before this activity diminishes in the 03-05z period. ...Parts of the Northeast... Model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Northeast during the afternoon and evening, within a warm, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment along/south of a cold front draped across parts of New England. Isolated strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) are possible with the stronger storms. ...Parts of ND... No change in thinking from the previous forecast. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across parts of SK/MB on Saturday, with some influence of this shortwave expected to extend into parts of ND. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon/evening, with moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear supporting potential for a few organized storms capable of isolated hail and strong/severe gusts. ..Smith.. 06/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MISSOURI...IOWA...ILLINOIS...AND WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible across the upper Mississippi Valley and upper Midwest on Saturday. Damaging wind, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are all possible. ...East-central Great Plains into the upper Midwest... A convectively augmented mid-level disturbance will move east across WI into MI during the morning into the early afternoon. Showers/thunderstorms will likely accompany this feature with some strong to severe risk possible, especially on a localized basis over the northern half of Lower MI as some heating contributes to destabilization. In the wake of morning convection, moderate to locally strong buoyancy is expected to develop from eastern KS/southeast NE northeastward into parts of southern WI/northern IL, along/south of an outflow-reinforced front. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front by late afternoon into the evening from northern MO to the Lake MI vicinity. Effective shear generally in the 30-40 kt range will support a few organized cells/clusters. Relatively strong heating and large PW will support strong/damaging gusts as the most likely hazard. Warm 500-mb temperatures (-6 to -8 deg C) will tend to limit the overall magnitude of buoyancy and the potential hail risk with the stronger cells. A tornado or two will also be possible, in the presence of moderate low-level southwesterly flow and modestly enhanced SRH. Farther east, intensification of morning convection and/or afternoon redevelopment will be possible across parts of Lower MI. While instability will be weaker compared to areas father west, somewhat enhanced low/midlevel flow will support a threat for isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado. ...South-central AZ... Model forecast soundings show seasonally high PW across the Sonoran Desert on Saturday. Intense surface heating will result in surface temperatures quickly rising into the 100s across the lower desert with mainly 50s deg F dewpoints. Very steep 0-3 km lapse rates and weak buoyancy will probably lead to isolated thunderstorm development initially in orographically favored locations. Existing storms' cold pools may potentially interact and promote additional storms during the evening. The environment in which these pulse-like thunderstorms develop will support large evaporative potential with the downdrafts. The more water-laden cores will possibly yield a risk for severe gusts (60-75 mph) before this activity diminishes in the 03-05z period. ...Parts of the Northeast... Model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Northeast during the afternoon and evening, within a warm, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment along/south of a cold front draped across parts of New England. Isolated strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) are possible with the stronger storms. ...Parts of ND... No change in thinking from the previous forecast. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across parts of SK/MB on Saturday, with some influence of this shortwave expected to extend into parts of ND. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon/evening, with moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear supporting potential for a few organized storms capable of isolated hail and strong/severe gusts. ..Smith.. 06/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MISSOURI...IOWA...ILLINOIS...AND WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible across the upper Mississippi Valley and upper Midwest on Saturday. Damaging wind, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are all possible. ...East-central Great Plains into the upper Midwest... A convectively augmented mid-level disturbance will move east across WI into MI during the morning into the early afternoon. Showers/thunderstorms will likely accompany this feature with some strong to severe risk possible, especially on a localized basis over the northern half of Lower MI as some heating contributes to destabilization. In the wake of morning convection, moderate to locally strong buoyancy is expected to develop from eastern KS/southeast NE northeastward into parts of southern WI/northern IL, along/south of an outflow-reinforced front. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front by late afternoon into the evening from northern MO to the Lake MI vicinity. Effective shear generally in the 30-40 kt range will support a few organized cells/clusters. Relatively strong heating and large PW will support strong/damaging gusts as the most likely hazard. Warm 500-mb temperatures (-6 to -8 deg C) will tend to limit the overall magnitude of buoyancy and the potential hail risk with the stronger cells. A tornado or two will also be possible, in the presence of moderate low-level southwesterly flow and modestly enhanced SRH. Farther east, intensification of morning convection and/or afternoon redevelopment will be possible across parts of Lower MI. While instability will be weaker compared to areas father west, somewhat enhanced low/midlevel flow will support a threat for isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado. ...South-central AZ... Model forecast soundings show seasonally high PW across the Sonoran Desert on Saturday. Intense surface heating will result in surface temperatures quickly rising into the 100s across the lower desert with mainly 50s deg F dewpoints. Very steep 0-3 km lapse rates and weak buoyancy will probably lead to isolated thunderstorm development initially in orographically favored locations. Existing storms' cold pools may potentially interact and promote additional storms during the evening. The environment in which these pulse-like thunderstorms develop will support large evaporative potential with the downdrafts. The more water-laden cores will possibly yield a risk for severe gusts (60-75 mph) before this activity diminishes in the 03-05z period. ...Parts of the Northeast... Model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Northeast during the afternoon and evening, within a warm, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment along/south of a cold front draped across parts of New England. Isolated strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) are possible with the stronger storms. ...Parts of ND... No change in thinking from the previous forecast. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across parts of SK/MB on Saturday, with some influence of this shortwave expected to extend into parts of ND. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon/evening, with moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear supporting potential for a few organized storms capable of isolated hail and strong/severe gusts. ..Smith.. 06/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MISSOURI...IOWA...ILLINOIS...AND WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible across the upper Mississippi Valley and upper Midwest on Saturday. Damaging wind, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are all possible. ...East-central Great Plains into the upper Midwest... A convectively augmented mid-level disturbance will move east across WI into MI during the morning into the early afternoon. Showers/thunderstorms will likely accompany this feature with some strong to severe risk possible, especially on a localized basis over the northern half of Lower MI as some heating contributes to destabilization. In the wake of morning convection, moderate to locally strong buoyancy is expected to develop from eastern KS/southeast NE northeastward into parts of southern WI/northern IL, along/south of an outflow-reinforced front. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front by late afternoon into the evening from northern MO to the Lake MI vicinity. Effective shear generally in the 30-40 kt range will support a few organized cells/clusters. Relatively strong heating and large PW will support strong/damaging gusts as the most likely hazard. Warm 500-mb temperatures (-6 to -8 deg C) will tend to limit the overall magnitude of buoyancy and the potential hail risk with the stronger cells. A tornado or two will also be possible, in the presence of moderate low-level southwesterly flow and modestly enhanced SRH. Farther east, intensification of morning convection and/or afternoon redevelopment will be possible across parts of Lower MI. While instability will be weaker compared to areas father west, somewhat enhanced low/midlevel flow will support a threat for isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado. ...South-central AZ... Model forecast soundings show seasonally high PW across the Sonoran Desert on Saturday. Intense surface heating will result in surface temperatures quickly rising into the 100s across the lower desert with mainly 50s deg F dewpoints. Very steep 0-3 km lapse rates and weak buoyancy will probably lead to isolated thunderstorm development initially in orographically favored locations. Existing storms' cold pools may potentially interact and promote additional storms during the evening. The environment in which these pulse-like thunderstorms develop will support large evaporative potential with the downdrafts. The more water-laden cores will possibly yield a risk for severe gusts (60-75 mph) before this activity diminishes in the 03-05z period. ...Parts of the Northeast... Model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Northeast during the afternoon and evening, within a warm, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment along/south of a cold front draped across parts of New England. Isolated strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) are possible with the stronger storms. ...Parts of ND... No change in thinking from the previous forecast. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across parts of SK/MB on Saturday, with some influence of this shortwave expected to extend into parts of ND. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon/evening, with moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear supporting potential for a few organized storms capable of isolated hail and strong/severe gusts. ..Smith.. 06/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MISSOURI...IOWA...ILLINOIS...AND WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible across the upper Mississippi Valley and upper Midwest on Saturday. Damaging wind, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are all possible. ...East-central Great Plains into the upper Midwest... A convectively augmented mid-level disturbance will move east across WI into MI during the morning into the early afternoon. Showers/thunderstorms will likely accompany this feature with some strong to severe risk possible, especially on a localized basis over the northern half of Lower MI as some heating contributes to destabilization. In the wake of morning convection, moderate to locally strong buoyancy is expected to develop from eastern KS/southeast NE northeastward into parts of southern WI/northern IL, along/south of an outflow-reinforced front. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front by late afternoon into the evening from northern MO to the Lake MI vicinity. Effective shear generally in the 30-40 kt range will support a few organized cells/clusters. Relatively strong heating and large PW will support strong/damaging gusts as the most likely hazard. Warm 500-mb temperatures (-6 to -8 deg C) will tend to limit the overall magnitude of buoyancy and the potential hail risk with the stronger cells. A tornado or two will also be possible, in the presence of moderate low-level southwesterly flow and modestly enhanced SRH. Farther east, intensification of morning convection and/or afternoon redevelopment will be possible across parts of Lower MI. While instability will be weaker compared to areas father west, somewhat enhanced low/midlevel flow will support a threat for isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado. ...South-central AZ... Model forecast soundings show seasonally high PW across the Sonoran Desert on Saturday. Intense surface heating will result in surface temperatures quickly rising into the 100s across the lower desert with mainly 50s deg F dewpoints. Very steep 0-3 km lapse rates and weak buoyancy will probably lead to isolated thunderstorm development initially in orographically favored locations. Existing storms' cold pools may potentially interact and promote additional storms during the evening. The environment in which these pulse-like thunderstorms develop will support large evaporative potential with the downdrafts. The more water-laden cores will possibly yield a risk for severe gusts (60-75 mph) before this activity diminishes in the 03-05z period. ...Parts of the Northeast... Model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Northeast during the afternoon and evening, within a warm, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment along/south of a cold front draped across parts of New England. Isolated strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) are possible with the stronger storms. ...Parts of ND... No change in thinking from the previous forecast. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across parts of SK/MB on Saturday, with some influence of this shortwave expected to extend into parts of ND. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon/evening, with moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear supporting potential for a few organized storms capable of isolated hail and strong/severe gusts. ..Smith.. 06/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MISSOURI...IOWA...ILLINOIS...AND WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible across the upper Mississippi Valley and upper Midwest on Saturday. Damaging wind, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are all possible. ...East-central Great Plains into the upper Midwest... A convectively augmented mid-level disturbance will move east across WI into MI during the morning into the early afternoon. Showers/thunderstorms will likely accompany this feature with some strong to severe risk possible, especially on a localized basis over the northern half of Lower MI as some heating contributes to destabilization. In the wake of morning convection, moderate to locally strong buoyancy is expected to develop from eastern KS/southeast NE northeastward into parts of southern WI/northern IL, along/south of an outflow-reinforced front. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front by late afternoon into the evening from northern MO to the Lake MI vicinity. Effective shear generally in the 30-40 kt range will support a few organized cells/clusters. Relatively strong heating and large PW will support strong/damaging gusts as the most likely hazard. Warm 500-mb temperatures (-6 to -8 deg C) will tend to limit the overall magnitude of buoyancy and the potential hail risk with the stronger cells. A tornado or two will also be possible, in the presence of moderate low-level southwesterly flow and modestly enhanced SRH. Farther east, intensification of morning convection and/or afternoon redevelopment will be possible across parts of Lower MI. While instability will be weaker compared to areas father west, somewhat enhanced low/midlevel flow will support a threat for isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado. ...South-central AZ... Model forecast soundings show seasonally high PW across the Sonoran Desert on Saturday. Intense surface heating will result in surface temperatures quickly rising into the 100s across the lower desert with mainly 50s deg F dewpoints. Very steep 0-3 km lapse rates and weak buoyancy will probably lead to isolated thunderstorm development initially in orographically favored locations. Existing storms' cold pools may potentially interact and promote additional storms during the evening. The environment in which these pulse-like thunderstorms develop will support large evaporative potential with the downdrafts. The more water-laden cores will possibly yield a risk for severe gusts (60-75 mph) before this activity diminishes in the 03-05z period. ...Parts of the Northeast... Model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Northeast during the afternoon and evening, within a warm, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment along/south of a cold front draped across parts of New England. Isolated strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) are possible with the stronger storms. ...Parts of ND... No change in thinking from the previous forecast. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across parts of SK/MB on Saturday, with some influence of this shortwave expected to extend into parts of ND. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon/evening, with moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear supporting potential for a few organized storms capable of isolated hail and strong/severe gusts. ..Smith.. 06/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MISSOURI...IOWA...ILLINOIS...AND WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible across the upper Mississippi Valley and upper Midwest on Saturday. Damaging wind, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are all possible. ...East-central Great Plains into the upper Midwest... A convectively augmented mid-level disturbance will move east across WI into MI during the morning into the early afternoon. Showers/thunderstorms will likely accompany this feature with some strong to severe risk possible, especially on a localized basis over the northern half of Lower MI as some heating contributes to destabilization. In the wake of morning convection, moderate to locally strong buoyancy is expected to develop from eastern KS/southeast NE northeastward into parts of southern WI/northern IL, along/south of an outflow-reinforced front. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front by late afternoon into the evening from northern MO to the Lake MI vicinity. Effective shear generally in the 30-40 kt range will support a few organized cells/clusters. Relatively strong heating and large PW will support strong/damaging gusts as the most likely hazard. Warm 500-mb temperatures (-6 to -8 deg C) will tend to limit the overall magnitude of buoyancy and the potential hail risk with the stronger cells. A tornado or two will also be possible, in the presence of moderate low-level southwesterly flow and modestly enhanced SRH. Farther east, intensification of morning convection and/or afternoon redevelopment will be possible across parts of Lower MI. While instability will be weaker compared to areas father west, somewhat enhanced low/midlevel flow will support a threat for isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado. ...South-central AZ... Model forecast soundings show seasonally high PW across the Sonoran Desert on Saturday. Intense surface heating will result in surface temperatures quickly rising into the 100s across the lower desert with mainly 50s deg F dewpoints. Very steep 0-3 km lapse rates and weak buoyancy will probably lead to isolated thunderstorm development initially in orographically favored locations. Existing storms' cold pools may potentially interact and promote additional storms during the evening. The environment in which these pulse-like thunderstorms develop will support large evaporative potential with the downdrafts. The more water-laden cores will possibly yield a risk for severe gusts (60-75 mph) before this activity diminishes in the 03-05z period. ...Parts of the Northeast... Model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Northeast during the afternoon and evening, within a warm, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment along/south of a cold front draped across parts of New England. Isolated strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) are possible with the stronger storms. ...Parts of ND... No change in thinking from the previous forecast. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across parts of SK/MB on Saturday, with some influence of this shortwave expected to extend into parts of ND. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon/evening, with moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear supporting potential for a few organized storms capable of isolated hail and strong/severe gusts. ..Smith.. 06/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MISSOURI...IOWA...ILLINOIS...AND WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible across the upper Mississippi Valley and upper Midwest on Saturday. Damaging wind, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are all possible. ...East-central Great Plains into the upper Midwest... A convectively augmented mid-level disturbance will move east across WI into MI during the morning into the early afternoon. Showers/thunderstorms will likely accompany this feature with some strong to severe risk possible, especially on a localized basis over the northern half of Lower MI as some heating contributes to destabilization. In the wake of morning convection, moderate to locally strong buoyancy is expected to develop from eastern KS/southeast NE northeastward into parts of southern WI/northern IL, along/south of an outflow-reinforced front. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front by late afternoon into the evening from northern MO to the Lake MI vicinity. Effective shear generally in the 30-40 kt range will support a few organized cells/clusters. Relatively strong heating and large PW will support strong/damaging gusts as the most likely hazard. Warm 500-mb temperatures (-6 to -8 deg C) will tend to limit the overall magnitude of buoyancy and the potential hail risk with the stronger cells. A tornado or two will also be possible, in the presence of moderate low-level southwesterly flow and modestly enhanced SRH. Farther east, intensification of morning convection and/or afternoon redevelopment will be possible across parts of Lower MI. While instability will be weaker compared to areas father west, somewhat enhanced low/midlevel flow will support a threat for isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado. ...South-central AZ... Model forecast soundings show seasonally high PW across the Sonoran Desert on Saturday. Intense surface heating will result in surface temperatures quickly rising into the 100s across the lower desert with mainly 50s deg F dewpoints. Very steep 0-3 km lapse rates and weak buoyancy will probably lead to isolated thunderstorm development initially in orographically favored locations. Existing storms' cold pools may potentially interact and promote additional storms during the evening. The environment in which these pulse-like thunderstorms develop will support large evaporative potential with the downdrafts. The more water-laden cores will possibly yield a risk for severe gusts (60-75 mph) before this activity diminishes in the 03-05z period. ...Parts of the Northeast... Model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Northeast during the afternoon and evening, within a warm, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment along/south of a cold front draped across parts of New England. Isolated strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) are possible with the stronger storms. ...Parts of ND... No change in thinking from the previous forecast. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across parts of SK/MB on Saturday, with some influence of this shortwave expected to extend into parts of ND. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon/evening, with moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear supporting potential for a few organized storms capable of isolated hail and strong/severe gusts. ..Smith.. 06/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MISSOURI...IOWA...ILLINOIS...AND WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible across the upper Mississippi Valley and upper Midwest on Saturday. Damaging wind, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are all possible. ...East-central Great Plains into the upper Midwest... A convectively augmented mid-level disturbance will move east across WI into MI during the morning into the early afternoon. Showers/thunderstorms will likely accompany this feature with some strong to severe risk possible, especially on a localized basis over the northern half of Lower MI as some heating contributes to destabilization. In the wake of morning convection, moderate to locally strong buoyancy is expected to develop from eastern KS/southeast NE northeastward into parts of southern WI/northern IL, along/south of an outflow-reinforced front. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front by late afternoon into the evening from northern MO to the Lake MI vicinity. Effective shear generally in the 30-40 kt range will support a few organized cells/clusters. Relatively strong heating and large PW will support strong/damaging gusts as the most likely hazard. Warm 500-mb temperatures (-6 to -8 deg C) will tend to limit the overall magnitude of buoyancy and the potential hail risk with the stronger cells. A tornado or two will also be possible, in the presence of moderate low-level southwesterly flow and modestly enhanced SRH. Farther east, intensification of morning convection and/or afternoon redevelopment will be possible across parts of Lower MI. While instability will be weaker compared to areas father west, somewhat enhanced low/midlevel flow will support a threat for isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado. ...South-central AZ... Model forecast soundings show seasonally high PW across the Sonoran Desert on Saturday. Intense surface heating will result in surface temperatures quickly rising into the 100s across the lower desert with mainly 50s deg F dewpoints. Very steep 0-3 km lapse rates and weak buoyancy will probably lead to isolated thunderstorm development initially in orographically favored locations. Existing storms' cold pools may potentially interact and promote additional storms during the evening. The environment in which these pulse-like thunderstorms develop will support large evaporative potential with the downdrafts. The more water-laden cores will possibly yield a risk for severe gusts (60-75 mph) before this activity diminishes in the 03-05z period. ...Parts of the Northeast... Model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Northeast during the afternoon and evening, within a warm, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment along/south of a cold front draped across parts of New England. Isolated strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) are possible with the stronger storms. ...Parts of ND... No change in thinking from the previous forecast. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across parts of SK/MB on Saturday, with some influence of this shortwave expected to extend into parts of ND. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon/evening, with moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear supporting potential for a few organized storms capable of isolated hail and strong/severe gusts. ..Smith.. 06/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MISSOURI...IOWA...ILLINOIS...AND WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible across the upper Mississippi Valley and upper Midwest on Saturday. Damaging wind, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are all possible. ...East-central Great Plains into the upper Midwest... A convectively augmented mid-level disturbance will move east across WI into MI during the morning into the early afternoon. Showers/thunderstorms will likely accompany this feature with some strong to severe risk possible, especially on a localized basis over the northern half of Lower MI as some heating contributes to destabilization. In the wake of morning convection, moderate to locally strong buoyancy is expected to develop from eastern KS/southeast NE northeastward into parts of southern WI/northern IL, along/south of an outflow-reinforced front. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front by late afternoon into the evening from northern MO to the Lake MI vicinity. Effective shear generally in the 30-40 kt range will support a few organized cells/clusters. Relatively strong heating and large PW will support strong/damaging gusts as the most likely hazard. Warm 500-mb temperatures (-6 to -8 deg C) will tend to limit the overall magnitude of buoyancy and the potential hail risk with the stronger cells. A tornado or two will also be possible, in the presence of moderate low-level southwesterly flow and modestly enhanced SRH. Farther east, intensification of morning convection and/or afternoon redevelopment will be possible across parts of Lower MI. While instability will be weaker compared to areas father west, somewhat enhanced low/midlevel flow will support a threat for isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado. ...South-central AZ... Model forecast soundings show seasonally high PW across the Sonoran Desert on Saturday. Intense surface heating will result in surface temperatures quickly rising into the 100s across the lower desert with mainly 50s deg F dewpoints. Very steep 0-3 km lapse rates and weak buoyancy will probably lead to isolated thunderstorm development initially in orographically favored locations. Existing storms' cold pools may potentially interact and promote additional storms during the evening. The environment in which these pulse-like thunderstorms develop will support large evaporative potential with the downdrafts. The more water-laden cores will possibly yield a risk for severe gusts (60-75 mph) before this activity diminishes in the 03-05z period. ...Parts of the Northeast... Model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Northeast during the afternoon and evening, within a warm, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment along/south of a cold front draped across parts of New England. Isolated strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) are possible with the stronger storms. ...Parts of ND... No change in thinking from the previous forecast. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across parts of SK/MB on Saturday, with some influence of this shortwave expected to extend into parts of ND. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon/evening, with moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear supporting potential for a few organized storms capable of isolated hail and strong/severe gusts. ..Smith.. 06/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MISSOURI...IOWA...ILLINOIS...AND WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible across the upper Mississippi Valley and upper Midwest on Saturday. Damaging wind, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are all possible. ...East-central Great Plains into the upper Midwest... A convectively augmented mid-level disturbance will move east across WI into MI during the morning into the early afternoon. Showers/thunderstorms will likely accompany this feature with some strong to severe risk possible, especially on a localized basis over the northern half of Lower MI as some heating contributes to destabilization. In the wake of morning convection, moderate to locally strong buoyancy is expected to develop from eastern KS/southeast NE northeastward into parts of southern WI/northern IL, along/south of an outflow-reinforced front. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front by late afternoon into the evening from northern MO to the Lake MI vicinity. Effective shear generally in the 30-40 kt range will support a few organized cells/clusters. Relatively strong heating and large PW will support strong/damaging gusts as the most likely hazard. Warm 500-mb temperatures (-6 to -8 deg C) will tend to limit the overall magnitude of buoyancy and the potential hail risk with the stronger cells. A tornado or two will also be possible, in the presence of moderate low-level southwesterly flow and modestly enhanced SRH. Farther east, intensification of morning convection and/or afternoon redevelopment will be possible across parts of Lower MI. While instability will be weaker compared to areas father west, somewhat enhanced low/midlevel flow will support a threat for isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado. ...South-central AZ... Model forecast soundings show seasonally high PW across the Sonoran Desert on Saturday. Intense surface heating will result in surface temperatures quickly rising into the 100s across the lower desert with mainly 50s deg F dewpoints. Very steep 0-3 km lapse rates and weak buoyancy will probably lead to isolated thunderstorm development initially in orographically favored locations. Existing storms' cold pools may potentially interact and promote additional storms during the evening. The environment in which these pulse-like thunderstorms develop will support large evaporative potential with the downdrafts. The more water-laden cores will possibly yield a risk for severe gusts (60-75 mph) before this activity diminishes in the 03-05z period. ...Parts of the Northeast... Model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Northeast during the afternoon and evening, within a warm, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment along/south of a cold front draped across parts of New England. Isolated strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) are possible with the stronger storms. ...Parts of ND... No change in thinking from the previous forecast. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across parts of SK/MB on Saturday, with some influence of this shortwave expected to extend into parts of ND. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon/evening, with moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear supporting potential for a few organized storms capable of isolated hail and strong/severe gusts. ..Smith.. 06/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MISSOURI...IOWA...ILLINOIS...AND WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible across the upper Mississippi Valley and upper Midwest on Saturday. Damaging wind, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are all possible. ...East-central Great Plains into the upper Midwest... A convectively augmented mid-level disturbance will move east across WI into MI during the morning into the early afternoon. Showers/thunderstorms will likely accompany this feature with some strong to severe risk possible, especially on a localized basis over the northern half of Lower MI as some heating contributes to destabilization. In the wake of morning convection, moderate to locally strong buoyancy is expected to develop from eastern KS/southeast NE northeastward into parts of southern WI/northern IL, along/south of an outflow-reinforced front. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front by late afternoon into the evening from northern MO to the Lake MI vicinity. Effective shear generally in the 30-40 kt range will support a few organized cells/clusters. Relatively strong heating and large PW will support strong/damaging gusts as the most likely hazard. Warm 500-mb temperatures (-6 to -8 deg C) will tend to limit the overall magnitude of buoyancy and the potential hail risk with the stronger cells. A tornado or two will also be possible, in the presence of moderate low-level southwesterly flow and modestly enhanced SRH. Farther east, intensification of morning convection and/or afternoon redevelopment will be possible across parts of Lower MI. While instability will be weaker compared to areas father west, somewhat enhanced low/midlevel flow will support a threat for isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado. ...South-central AZ... Model forecast soundings show seasonally high PW across the Sonoran Desert on Saturday. Intense surface heating will result in surface temperatures quickly rising into the 100s across the lower desert with mainly 50s deg F dewpoints. Very steep 0-3 km lapse rates and weak buoyancy will probably lead to isolated thunderstorm development initially in orographically favored locations. Existing storms' cold pools may potentially interact and promote additional storms during the evening. The environment in which these pulse-like thunderstorms develop will support large evaporative potential with the downdrafts. The more water-laden cores will possibly yield a risk for severe gusts (60-75 mph) before this activity diminishes in the 03-05z period. ...Parts of the Northeast... Model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Northeast during the afternoon and evening, within a warm, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment along/south of a cold front draped across parts of New England. Isolated strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) are possible with the stronger storms. ...Parts of ND... No change in thinking from the previous forecast. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across parts of SK/MB on Saturday, with some influence of this shortwave expected to extend into parts of ND. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon/evening, with moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear supporting potential for a few organized storms capable of isolated hail and strong/severe gusts. ..Smith.. 06/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MISSOURI...IOWA...ILLINOIS...AND WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible across the upper Mississippi Valley and upper Midwest on Saturday. Damaging wind, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are all possible. ...East-central Great Plains into the upper Midwest... A convectively augmented mid-level disturbance will move east across WI into MI during the morning into the early afternoon. Showers/thunderstorms will likely accompany this feature with some strong to severe risk possible, especially on a localized basis over the northern half of Lower MI as some heating contributes to destabilization. In the wake of morning convection, moderate to locally strong buoyancy is expected to develop from eastern KS/southeast NE northeastward into parts of southern WI/northern IL, along/south of an outflow-reinforced front. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front by late afternoon into the evening from northern MO to the Lake MI vicinity. Effective shear generally in the 30-40 kt range will support a few organized cells/clusters. Relatively strong heating and large PW will support strong/damaging gusts as the most likely hazard. Warm 500-mb temperatures (-6 to -8 deg C) will tend to limit the overall magnitude of buoyancy and the potential hail risk with the stronger cells. A tornado or two will also be possible, in the presence of moderate low-level southwesterly flow and modestly enhanced SRH. Farther east, intensification of morning convection and/or afternoon redevelopment will be possible across parts of Lower MI. While instability will be weaker compared to areas father west, somewhat enhanced low/midlevel flow will support a threat for isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado. ...South-central AZ... Model forecast soundings show seasonally high PW across the Sonoran Desert on Saturday. Intense surface heating will result in surface temperatures quickly rising into the 100s across the lower desert with mainly 50s deg F dewpoints. Very steep 0-3 km lapse rates and weak buoyancy will probably lead to isolated thunderstorm development initially in orographically favored locations. Existing storms' cold pools may potentially interact and promote additional storms during the evening. The environment in which these pulse-like thunderstorms develop will support large evaporative potential with the downdrafts. The more water-laden cores will possibly yield a risk for severe gusts (60-75 mph) before this activity diminishes in the 03-05z period. ...Parts of the Northeast... Model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Northeast during the afternoon and evening, within a warm, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment along/south of a cold front draped across parts of New England. Isolated strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) are possible with the stronger storms. ...Parts of ND... No change in thinking from the previous forecast. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across parts of SK/MB on Saturday, with some influence of this shortwave expected to extend into parts of ND. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon/evening, with moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear supporting potential for a few organized storms capable of isolated hail and strong/severe gusts. ..Smith.. 06/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MISSOURI...IOWA...ILLINOIS...AND WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible across the upper Mississippi Valley and upper Midwest on Saturday. Damaging wind, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are all possible. ...East-central Great Plains into the upper Midwest... A convectively augmented mid-level disturbance will move east across WI into MI during the morning into the early afternoon. Showers/thunderstorms will likely accompany this feature with some strong to severe risk possible, especially on a localized basis over the northern half of Lower MI as some heating contributes to destabilization. In the wake of morning convection, moderate to locally strong buoyancy is expected to develop from eastern KS/southeast NE northeastward into parts of southern WI/northern IL, along/south of an outflow-reinforced front. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front by late afternoon into the evening from northern MO to the Lake MI vicinity. Effective shear generally in the 30-40 kt range will support a few organized cells/clusters. Relatively strong heating and large PW will support strong/damaging gusts as the most likely hazard. Warm 500-mb temperatures (-6 to -8 deg C) will tend to limit the overall magnitude of buoyancy and the potential hail risk with the stronger cells. A tornado or two will also be possible, in the presence of moderate low-level southwesterly flow and modestly enhanced SRH. Farther east, intensification of morning convection and/or afternoon redevelopment will be possible across parts of Lower MI. While instability will be weaker compared to areas father west, somewhat enhanced low/midlevel flow will support a threat for isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado. ...South-central AZ... Model forecast soundings show seasonally high PW across the Sonoran Desert on Saturday. Intense surface heating will result in surface temperatures quickly rising into the 100s across the lower desert with mainly 50s deg F dewpoints. Very steep 0-3 km lapse rates and weak buoyancy will probably lead to isolated thunderstorm development initially in orographically favored locations. Existing storms' cold pools may potentially interact and promote additional storms during the evening. The environment in which these pulse-like thunderstorms develop will support large evaporative potential with the downdrafts. The more water-laden cores will possibly yield a risk for severe gusts (60-75 mph) before this activity diminishes in the 03-05z period. ...Parts of the Northeast... Model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Northeast during the afternoon and evening, within a warm, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment along/south of a cold front draped across parts of New England. Isolated strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) are possible with the stronger storms. ...Parts of ND... No change in thinking from the previous forecast. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across parts of SK/MB on Saturday, with some influence of this shortwave expected to extend into parts of ND. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon/evening, with moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear supporting potential for a few organized storms capable of isolated hail and strong/severe gusts. ..Smith.. 06/21/2024 Read more