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MD 1340 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND NY
Mesoscale Discussion 1340 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Areas affected...parts of New England and NY Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 201526Z - 201730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered damaging winds from gusts of 50-65 mph, along with isolated hail from 0.75-1.50 inches in diameter will be possible this afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely for parts of the region, centered from east NY into south ME. DISCUSSION...Low 70s surface dew points remain pervasive in lower elevations across central/east NY into ME. Robust diabatic heating of this moisture plume will result in moderately large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg becoming common in the next few hours. A pair of MCVs embedded within a zonal mid-level flow regime, the lead one over the Upper St. Lawrence Valley and an upstream one near the Georgian Bay of Lake Huron, should aid in scattered to widespread thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be weak, especially with south extent, and initial mode will predominately be pulse. But some congealing and loosely organized multicell clustering may occur where effective bulk shear holds around 20 kts, ahead of the lead MCV. The most favored corridor appears to be centered on the Champlain Valley into south ME. Strong to isolated severe wind gusts of 50-65 mph producing potentially scattered tree damage appears to be the primary threat, but isolated marginally severe hail will be possible as well. ..Grams/Hart.. 06/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 42167637 44947430 45117192 45247061 45476931 44666848 43307011 42457107 41867462 42167637 Read more

WW 0438 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0438 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

Franklin County Commissioners issued an emergency burn ban proclamation due to drought and high temperatures. The burn ban will be in effect until further notice. The use of aerial fireworks was discouraged. Eagle Country (Lawrenceburg, Ind.), June 20, 2024

No watches are valid as of Thu Jun 20 16:20:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging wind gusts over parts of the Northeast and New England mainly this afternoon. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of the north-central High Plains. ...Eastern NY and New England... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across all of New England and parts of NY/PA. A well-defined MCV currently over eastern Lake Ontario will track eastward into this warm and very humid air mass (dewpoints in the low 70s), where afternoon MLCAPE values will exceed 2000 J/kg. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon towards the coast of southern ME/NH/MA. Winds aloft are not particularly strong, suggest early activity may be rather disorganized. However, eventual congealing of outflow will likely result in locally damaging wind gusts. Hail will also be possible in the strongest cells. Please refer to MCD #1340 for further details. ...Central High Plains... Latest surface analysis shows south-southeasterly low-level winds across the NE Panhandle and southeast WY, where dewpoints are in the 50s and lower 60s. This will help maintain a moist/unstable air mass in the area, yielding afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over southeast WY by 20z, where sufficient deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will favor supercell structures capable of very large hail and perhaps a tornado. Storms will track eastward into the NE Panhandle and southern SD through the evening, with an increasing risk of damaging winds (possibly exceeding 65kt). ...Western CO... Moderately strong southwesterly low/mid-level flow is present today across western CO, where full heating and diurnal destabilization will occur. Morning models continue to show scattered or greater thunderstorms coverage this afternoon, in a deeply mixed environment. Several fast-moving high-based thunderstorms are expected, with a risk of locally severe winds in the stronger cores. ..Hart/Lyons/Halbert.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging wind gusts over parts of the Northeast and New England mainly this afternoon. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of the north-central High Plains. ...Eastern NY and New England... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across all of New England and parts of NY/PA. A well-defined MCV currently over eastern Lake Ontario will track eastward into this warm and very humid air mass (dewpoints in the low 70s), where afternoon MLCAPE values will exceed 2000 J/kg. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon towards the coast of southern ME/NH/MA. Winds aloft are not particularly strong, suggest early activity may be rather disorganized. However, eventual congealing of outflow will likely result in locally damaging wind gusts. Hail will also be possible in the strongest cells. Please refer to MCD #1340 for further details. ...Central High Plains... Latest surface analysis shows south-southeasterly low-level winds across the NE Panhandle and southeast WY, where dewpoints are in the 50s and lower 60s. This will help maintain a moist/unstable air mass in the area, yielding afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over southeast WY by 20z, where sufficient deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will favor supercell structures capable of very large hail and perhaps a tornado. Storms will track eastward into the NE Panhandle and southern SD through the evening, with an increasing risk of damaging winds (possibly exceeding 65kt). ...Western CO... Moderately strong southwesterly low/mid-level flow is present today across western CO, where full heating and diurnal destabilization will occur. Morning models continue to show scattered or greater thunderstorms coverage this afternoon, in a deeply mixed environment. Several fast-moving high-based thunderstorms are expected, with a risk of locally severe winds in the stronger cores. ..Hart/Lyons/Halbert.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging wind gusts over parts of the Northeast and New England mainly this afternoon. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of the north-central High Plains. ...Eastern NY and New England... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across all of New England and parts of NY/PA. A well-defined MCV currently over eastern Lake Ontario will track eastward into this warm and very humid air mass (dewpoints in the low 70s), where afternoon MLCAPE values will exceed 2000 J/kg. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon towards the coast of southern ME/NH/MA. Winds aloft are not particularly strong, suggest early activity may be rather disorganized. However, eventual congealing of outflow will likely result in locally damaging wind gusts. Hail will also be possible in the strongest cells. Please refer to MCD #1340 for further details. ...Central High Plains... Latest surface analysis shows south-southeasterly low-level winds across the NE Panhandle and southeast WY, where dewpoints are in the 50s and lower 60s. This will help maintain a moist/unstable air mass in the area, yielding afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over southeast WY by 20z, where sufficient deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will favor supercell structures capable of very large hail and perhaps a tornado. Storms will track eastward into the NE Panhandle and southern SD through the evening, with an increasing risk of damaging winds (possibly exceeding 65kt). ...Western CO... Moderately strong southwesterly low/mid-level flow is present today across western CO, where full heating and diurnal destabilization will occur. Morning models continue to show scattered or greater thunderstorms coverage this afternoon, in a deeply mixed environment. Several fast-moving high-based thunderstorms are expected, with a risk of locally severe winds in the stronger cores. ..Hart/Lyons/Halbert.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging wind gusts over parts of the Northeast and New England mainly this afternoon. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of the north-central High Plains. ...Eastern NY and New England... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across all of New England and parts of NY/PA. A well-defined MCV currently over eastern Lake Ontario will track eastward into this warm and very humid air mass (dewpoints in the low 70s), where afternoon MLCAPE values will exceed 2000 J/kg. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon towards the coast of southern ME/NH/MA. Winds aloft are not particularly strong, suggest early activity may be rather disorganized. However, eventual congealing of outflow will likely result in locally damaging wind gusts. Hail will also be possible in the strongest cells. Please refer to MCD #1340 for further details. ...Central High Plains... Latest surface analysis shows south-southeasterly low-level winds across the NE Panhandle and southeast WY, where dewpoints are in the 50s and lower 60s. This will help maintain a moist/unstable air mass in the area, yielding afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over southeast WY by 20z, where sufficient deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will favor supercell structures capable of very large hail and perhaps a tornado. Storms will track eastward into the NE Panhandle and southern SD through the evening, with an increasing risk of damaging winds (possibly exceeding 65kt). ...Western CO... Moderately strong southwesterly low/mid-level flow is present today across western CO, where full heating and diurnal destabilization will occur. Morning models continue to show scattered or greater thunderstorms coverage this afternoon, in a deeply mixed environment. Several fast-moving high-based thunderstorms are expected, with a risk of locally severe winds in the stronger cores. ..Hart/Lyons/Halbert.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging wind gusts over parts of the Northeast and New England mainly this afternoon. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of the north-central High Plains. ...Eastern NY and New England... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across all of New England and parts of NY/PA. A well-defined MCV currently over eastern Lake Ontario will track eastward into this warm and very humid air mass (dewpoints in the low 70s), where afternoon MLCAPE values will exceed 2000 J/kg. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon towards the coast of southern ME/NH/MA. Winds aloft are not particularly strong, suggest early activity may be rather disorganized. However, eventual congealing of outflow will likely result in locally damaging wind gusts. Hail will also be possible in the strongest cells. Please refer to MCD #1340 for further details. ...Central High Plains... Latest surface analysis shows south-southeasterly low-level winds across the NE Panhandle and southeast WY, where dewpoints are in the 50s and lower 60s. This will help maintain a moist/unstable air mass in the area, yielding afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over southeast WY by 20z, where sufficient deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will favor supercell structures capable of very large hail and perhaps a tornado. Storms will track eastward into the NE Panhandle and southern SD through the evening, with an increasing risk of damaging winds (possibly exceeding 65kt). ...Western CO... Moderately strong southwesterly low/mid-level flow is present today across western CO, where full heating and diurnal destabilization will occur. Morning models continue to show scattered or greater thunderstorms coverage this afternoon, in a deeply mixed environment. Several fast-moving high-based thunderstorms are expected, with a risk of locally severe winds in the stronger cores. ..Hart/Lyons/Halbert.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging wind gusts over parts of the Northeast and New England mainly this afternoon. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of the north-central High Plains. ...Eastern NY and New England... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across all of New England and parts of NY/PA. A well-defined MCV currently over eastern Lake Ontario will track eastward into this warm and very humid air mass (dewpoints in the low 70s), where afternoon MLCAPE values will exceed 2000 J/kg. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon towards the coast of southern ME/NH/MA. Winds aloft are not particularly strong, suggest early activity may be rather disorganized. However, eventual congealing of outflow will likely result in locally damaging wind gusts. Hail will also be possible in the strongest cells. Please refer to MCD #1340 for further details. ...Central High Plains... Latest surface analysis shows south-southeasterly low-level winds across the NE Panhandle and southeast WY, where dewpoints are in the 50s and lower 60s. This will help maintain a moist/unstable air mass in the area, yielding afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over southeast WY by 20z, where sufficient deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will favor supercell structures capable of very large hail and perhaps a tornado. Storms will track eastward into the NE Panhandle and southern SD through the evening, with an increasing risk of damaging winds (possibly exceeding 65kt). ...Western CO... Moderately strong southwesterly low/mid-level flow is present today across western CO, where full heating and diurnal destabilization will occur. Morning models continue to show scattered or greater thunderstorms coverage this afternoon, in a deeply mixed environment. Several fast-moving high-based thunderstorms are expected, with a risk of locally severe winds in the stronger cores. ..Hart/Lyons/Halbert.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging wind gusts over parts of the Northeast and New England mainly this afternoon. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of the north-central High Plains. ...Eastern NY and New England... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across all of New England and parts of NY/PA. A well-defined MCV currently over eastern Lake Ontario will track eastward into this warm and very humid air mass (dewpoints in the low 70s), where afternoon MLCAPE values will exceed 2000 J/kg. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon towards the coast of southern ME/NH/MA. Winds aloft are not particularly strong, suggest early activity may be rather disorganized. However, eventual congealing of outflow will likely result in locally damaging wind gusts. Hail will also be possible in the strongest cells. Please refer to MCD #1340 for further details. ...Central High Plains... Latest surface analysis shows south-southeasterly low-level winds across the NE Panhandle and southeast WY, where dewpoints are in the 50s and lower 60s. This will help maintain a moist/unstable air mass in the area, yielding afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over southeast WY by 20z, where sufficient deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will favor supercell structures capable of very large hail and perhaps a tornado. Storms will track eastward into the NE Panhandle and southern SD through the evening, with an increasing risk of damaging winds (possibly exceeding 65kt). ...Western CO... Moderately strong southwesterly low/mid-level flow is present today across western CO, where full heating and diurnal destabilization will occur. Morning models continue to show scattered or greater thunderstorms coverage this afternoon, in a deeply mixed environment. Several fast-moving high-based thunderstorms are expected, with a risk of locally severe winds in the stronger cores. ..Hart/Lyons/Halbert.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging wind gusts over parts of the Northeast and New England mainly this afternoon. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of the north-central High Plains. ...Eastern NY and New England... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across all of New England and parts of NY/PA. A well-defined MCV currently over eastern Lake Ontario will track eastward into this warm and very humid air mass (dewpoints in the low 70s), where afternoon MLCAPE values will exceed 2000 J/kg. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon towards the coast of southern ME/NH/MA. Winds aloft are not particularly strong, suggest early activity may be rather disorganized. However, eventual congealing of outflow will likely result in locally damaging wind gusts. Hail will also be possible in the strongest cells. Please refer to MCD #1340 for further details. ...Central High Plains... Latest surface analysis shows south-southeasterly low-level winds across the NE Panhandle and southeast WY, where dewpoints are in the 50s and lower 60s. This will help maintain a moist/unstable air mass in the area, yielding afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over southeast WY by 20z, where sufficient deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will favor supercell structures capable of very large hail and perhaps a tornado. Storms will track eastward into the NE Panhandle and southern SD through the evening, with an increasing risk of damaging winds (possibly exceeding 65kt). ...Western CO... Moderately strong southwesterly low/mid-level flow is present today across western CO, where full heating and diurnal destabilization will occur. Morning models continue to show scattered or greater thunderstorms coverage this afternoon, in a deeply mixed environment. Several fast-moving high-based thunderstorms are expected, with a risk of locally severe winds in the stronger cores. ..Hart/Lyons/Halbert.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging wind gusts over parts of the Northeast and New England mainly this afternoon. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of the north-central High Plains. ...Eastern NY and New England... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across all of New England and parts of NY/PA. A well-defined MCV currently over eastern Lake Ontario will track eastward into this warm and very humid air mass (dewpoints in the low 70s), where afternoon MLCAPE values will exceed 2000 J/kg. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon towards the coast of southern ME/NH/MA. Winds aloft are not particularly strong, suggest early activity may be rather disorganized. However, eventual congealing of outflow will likely result in locally damaging wind gusts. Hail will also be possible in the strongest cells. Please refer to MCD #1340 for further details. ...Central High Plains... Latest surface analysis shows south-southeasterly low-level winds across the NE Panhandle and southeast WY, where dewpoints are in the 50s and lower 60s. This will help maintain a moist/unstable air mass in the area, yielding afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over southeast WY by 20z, where sufficient deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will favor supercell structures capable of very large hail and perhaps a tornado. Storms will track eastward into the NE Panhandle and southern SD through the evening, with an increasing risk of damaging winds (possibly exceeding 65kt). ...Western CO... Moderately strong southwesterly low/mid-level flow is present today across western CO, where full heating and diurnal destabilization will occur. Morning models continue to show scattered or greater thunderstorms coverage this afternoon, in a deeply mixed environment. Several fast-moving high-based thunderstorms are expected, with a risk of locally severe winds in the stronger cores. ..Hart/Lyons/Halbert.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging wind gusts over parts of the Northeast and New England mainly this afternoon. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of the north-central High Plains. ...Eastern NY and New England... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across all of New England and parts of NY/PA. A well-defined MCV currently over eastern Lake Ontario will track eastward into this warm and very humid air mass (dewpoints in the low 70s), where afternoon MLCAPE values will exceed 2000 J/kg. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon towards the coast of southern ME/NH/MA. Winds aloft are not particularly strong, suggest early activity may be rather disorganized. However, eventual congealing of outflow will likely result in locally damaging wind gusts. Hail will also be possible in the strongest cells. Please refer to MCD #1340 for further details. ...Central High Plains... Latest surface analysis shows south-southeasterly low-level winds across the NE Panhandle and southeast WY, where dewpoints are in the 50s and lower 60s. This will help maintain a moist/unstable air mass in the area, yielding afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over southeast WY by 20z, where sufficient deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will favor supercell structures capable of very large hail and perhaps a tornado. Storms will track eastward into the NE Panhandle and southern SD through the evening, with an increasing risk of damaging winds (possibly exceeding 65kt). ...Western CO... Moderately strong southwesterly low/mid-level flow is present today across western CO, where full heating and diurnal destabilization will occur. Morning models continue to show scattered or greater thunderstorms coverage this afternoon, in a deeply mixed environment. Several fast-moving high-based thunderstorms are expected, with a risk of locally severe winds in the stronger cores. ..Hart/Lyons/Halbert.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging wind gusts over parts of the Northeast and New England mainly this afternoon. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of the north-central High Plains. ...Eastern NY and New England... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across all of New England and parts of NY/PA. A well-defined MCV currently over eastern Lake Ontario will track eastward into this warm and very humid air mass (dewpoints in the low 70s), where afternoon MLCAPE values will exceed 2000 J/kg. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon towards the coast of southern ME/NH/MA. Winds aloft are not particularly strong, suggest early activity may be rather disorganized. However, eventual congealing of outflow will likely result in locally damaging wind gusts. Hail will also be possible in the strongest cells. Please refer to MCD #1340 for further details. ...Central High Plains... Latest surface analysis shows south-southeasterly low-level winds across the NE Panhandle and southeast WY, where dewpoints are in the 50s and lower 60s. This will help maintain a moist/unstable air mass in the area, yielding afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over southeast WY by 20z, where sufficient deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will favor supercell structures capable of very large hail and perhaps a tornado. Storms will track eastward into the NE Panhandle and southern SD through the evening, with an increasing risk of damaging winds (possibly exceeding 65kt). ...Western CO... Moderately strong southwesterly low/mid-level flow is present today across western CO, where full heating and diurnal destabilization will occur. Morning models continue to show scattered or greater thunderstorms coverage this afternoon, in a deeply mixed environment. Several fast-moving high-based thunderstorms are expected, with a risk of locally severe winds in the stronger cores. ..Hart/Lyons/Halbert.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging wind gusts over parts of the Northeast and New England mainly this afternoon. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of the north-central High Plains. ...Eastern NY and New England... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across all of New England and parts of NY/PA. A well-defined MCV currently over eastern Lake Ontario will track eastward into this warm and very humid air mass (dewpoints in the low 70s), where afternoon MLCAPE values will exceed 2000 J/kg. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon towards the coast of southern ME/NH/MA. Winds aloft are not particularly strong, suggest early activity may be rather disorganized. However, eventual congealing of outflow will likely result in locally damaging wind gusts. Hail will also be possible in the strongest cells. Please refer to MCD #1340 for further details. ...Central High Plains... Latest surface analysis shows south-southeasterly low-level winds across the NE Panhandle and southeast WY, where dewpoints are in the 50s and lower 60s. This will help maintain a moist/unstable air mass in the area, yielding afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over southeast WY by 20z, where sufficient deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will favor supercell structures capable of very large hail and perhaps a tornado. Storms will track eastward into the NE Panhandle and southern SD through the evening, with an increasing risk of damaging winds (possibly exceeding 65kt). ...Western CO... Moderately strong southwesterly low/mid-level flow is present today across western CO, where full heating and diurnal destabilization will occur. Morning models continue to show scattered or greater thunderstorms coverage this afternoon, in a deeply mixed environment. Several fast-moving high-based thunderstorms are expected, with a risk of locally severe winds in the stronger cores. ..Hart/Lyons/Halbert.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging wind gusts over parts of the Northeast and New England mainly this afternoon. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of the north-central High Plains. ...Eastern NY and New England... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across all of New England and parts of NY/PA. A well-defined MCV currently over eastern Lake Ontario will track eastward into this warm and very humid air mass (dewpoints in the low 70s), where afternoon MLCAPE values will exceed 2000 J/kg. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon towards the coast of southern ME/NH/MA. Winds aloft are not particularly strong, suggest early activity may be rather disorganized. However, eventual congealing of outflow will likely result in locally damaging wind gusts. Hail will also be possible in the strongest cells. Please refer to MCD #1340 for further details. ...Central High Plains... Latest surface analysis shows south-southeasterly low-level winds across the NE Panhandle and southeast WY, where dewpoints are in the 50s and lower 60s. This will help maintain a moist/unstable air mass in the area, yielding afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over southeast WY by 20z, where sufficient deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will favor supercell structures capable of very large hail and perhaps a tornado. Storms will track eastward into the NE Panhandle and southern SD through the evening, with an increasing risk of damaging winds (possibly exceeding 65kt). ...Western CO... Moderately strong southwesterly low/mid-level flow is present today across western CO, where full heating and diurnal destabilization will occur. Morning models continue to show scattered or greater thunderstorms coverage this afternoon, in a deeply mixed environment. Several fast-moving high-based thunderstorms are expected, with a risk of locally severe winds in the stronger cores. ..Hart/Lyons/Halbert.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging wind gusts over parts of the Northeast and New England mainly this afternoon. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of the north-central High Plains. ...Eastern NY and New England... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across all of New England and parts of NY/PA. A well-defined MCV currently over eastern Lake Ontario will track eastward into this warm and very humid air mass (dewpoints in the low 70s), where afternoon MLCAPE values will exceed 2000 J/kg. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon towards the coast of southern ME/NH/MA. Winds aloft are not particularly strong, suggest early activity may be rather disorganized. However, eventual congealing of outflow will likely result in locally damaging wind gusts. Hail will also be possible in the strongest cells. Please refer to MCD #1340 for further details. ...Central High Plains... Latest surface analysis shows south-southeasterly low-level winds across the NE Panhandle and southeast WY, where dewpoints are in the 50s and lower 60s. This will help maintain a moist/unstable air mass in the area, yielding afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over southeast WY by 20z, where sufficient deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will favor supercell structures capable of very large hail and perhaps a tornado. Storms will track eastward into the NE Panhandle and southern SD through the evening, with an increasing risk of damaging winds (possibly exceeding 65kt). ...Western CO... Moderately strong southwesterly low/mid-level flow is present today across western CO, where full heating and diurnal destabilization will occur. Morning models continue to show scattered or greater thunderstorms coverage this afternoon, in a deeply mixed environment. Several fast-moving high-based thunderstorms are expected, with a risk of locally severe winds in the stronger cores. ..Hart/Lyons/Halbert.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging wind gusts over parts of the Northeast and New England mainly this afternoon. Scattered severe storms are also expected over parts of the north-central High Plains. ...Eastern NY and New England... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across all of New England and parts of NY/PA. A well-defined MCV currently over eastern Lake Ontario will track eastward into this warm and very humid air mass (dewpoints in the low 70s), where afternoon MLCAPE values will exceed 2000 J/kg. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon towards the coast of southern ME/NH/MA. Winds aloft are not particularly strong, suggest early activity may be rather disorganized. However, eventual congealing of outflow will likely result in locally damaging wind gusts. Hail will also be possible in the strongest cells. Please refer to MCD #1340 for further details. ...Central High Plains... Latest surface analysis shows south-southeasterly low-level winds across the NE Panhandle and southeast WY, where dewpoints are in the 50s and lower 60s. This will help maintain a moist/unstable air mass in the area, yielding afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over southeast WY by 20z, where sufficient deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will favor supercell structures capable of very large hail and perhaps a tornado. Storms will track eastward into the NE Panhandle and southern SD through the evening, with an increasing risk of damaging winds (possibly exceeding 65kt). ...Western CO... Moderately strong southwesterly low/mid-level flow is present today across western CO, where full heating and diurnal destabilization will occur. Morning models continue to show scattered or greater thunderstorms coverage this afternoon, in a deeply mixed environment. Several fast-moving high-based thunderstorms are expected, with a risk of locally severe winds in the stronger cores. ..Hart/Lyons/Halbert.. 06/20/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... Overall, the forecast remains valid and unchanged for today. Increasing south-southwest sustained surface winds are expected across portions of south-central and east-central UT through this afternoon. Speeds near 15-20 mph combined with RH in the low teens within a thermal ridge axis will result in near critical to brief critical meteorological conditions. This may also be a favored area for isolated dry lightning strikes. However, it appears most fuel states within this region are near average, preventing the need for an Elevated area. ..Barnes.. 06/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A westerly push of moisture will continue across New Mexico and Arizona today. Precipitable water values will increase to around 0.75-1.00 in into northeastern Arizona. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected, along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. Initially, thunderstorm activity may pose a risk for dry lightning, with soundings indicating large temperature and dewpoint spreads. Storm motion is expected to be rather slow with most guidance indicating high likelihood of measurable precipitation and increasing moisture and cloud cover through the afternoon/evening. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more