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WW 0441 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 441 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1360. ..GRAMS..06/21/24 ATTN...WFO...GJT...ABQ...SLC...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 441 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC029-033-045-067-077-081-083-085-091-103-111-113-212140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DELTA DOLORES GARFIELD LA PLATA MESA MOFFAT MONTEZUMA MONTROSE OURAY RIO BLANCO SAN JUAN SAN MIGUEL NMC006-031-045-212140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CIBOLA MCKINLEY SAN JUAN UTC007-009-013-015-017-019-025-031-037-039-041-047-051-055- 212140- UT . UTAH COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 1356 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE MID-MO TO UPPER MS VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1356 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Areas affected...parts of the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 211825Z - 212030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A generally isolated severe threat should develop into late afternoon with a mix of wind/hail, along with a couple tornadoes possible. Uncertainty exists with the overall spatial extent of the severe threat with slow-moving storms expected. DISCUSSION...Convection is slowly increasing along a quasi-stationary/slow-moving warm front that arcs from northeast NE into far southeast MN and southwest WI. The eastern portion of this development appears to be primarily driven by modest low-level warm theta-e advection within an uncapped, moderately buoyant air mass. Convection farther west over the Mid-MO Valley is also being aided by a minor MCV in southeast SD. Area VWPs still indicate relatively stronger mid/upper flow is likely displaced along and to the cool side of the front, with weak flow into the warm-moist sector. A confined corridor of slow-moving, transient supercells and multicell clusters should develop near and just south of the front. Overall severe coverage will probably remain sporadic with mainly a lower-end wind/hail threat. Confidence is somewhat higher in intensification, including the potential for a couple tornadoes, in association with the MCV over the Mid-MO Valley. ..Grams/Hart.. 06/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF... LAT...LON 44379225 43909048 43159028 42659136 42609154 42749384 42489615 42449837 42599907 43169904 43359876 43749576 44379225 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected from parts the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern High Plains, and into the Four Corners vicinity. A few strong storms may occur from parts of the Lower Great Lakes to southern New England. ...Discussion... Only two notable changes were made to the previous convective outlook. Otherwise the previous forecast thinking remains on track. 1) Have increased severe-wind probabilities to 15 percent and a categorical Slight Risk over southern portions of New England. Despite modest deep-layer westerly flow, steep 0-3 km lapse rates (7.5 to 8.5 deg C/km) and around 2 inches PW have yielded an environment that will favor multicells sporadically capable of strong to locally severe gusts (50-65 mph) and wind damage. A linear cluster near the NY/MA/CT border will likely push eastward over the next 2-4 hours and reach the CT/RI coast, and this area has been highlighted with recently issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #444. 2) Included southwest NE in Slight-Risk equivalent severe wind probabilities based on the latest satellite/observational trends. Storms that potentially develop over the next few hours within southwest NE may yield a severe-wind hazard given the steep lapse rate environment. ..Smith.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Four Corners into WY... Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper trough over NV, with an associated 40+kt mid-level speed max tracking from northern AZ into UT/CO. Beneath this strengthening wind field and large-scale ascent, considerable low-level moisture is present today with dewpoints in the 50s across much eastern UT/western CO and southwest WY. Pockets of strong daytime heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of hail and damaging winds for several hours this afternoon and evening. ...MT/WY... Several weak shortwave troughs are noted this morning moving east-northeastward across the northern Rockies. These features, combined with persistent easterly low-level winds across central/eastern MT will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development. Relatively isolated supercells are expected over MT, with more convective coverage farther south into eastern WY and western SD/NE. Storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds, along with the possibility of a tornado or two (mainly over parts of MT). ...Central Plains... A well-defined surface boundary extends across northern NE into southern MN. Considerable heating to the south of this boundary, along with strengthening southerly low-level winds/convergence by late afternoon, will result in scattered thunderstorms in vicinity of the front. Sufficient flow aloft and ample CAPE will promote a risk of a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail. ...Lower MI... Pockets of strong heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms over parts of central and southern Lower MI. This area is along the southern fringe of stronger westerlies, with 25-30 knots of flow at 500mb. This might be sufficient for a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ...NY/PA/Southern New England... Hot and humid conditions are expected today across much of PA/NY and southern New England, with dewpoints in the 70s and temperatures well into the 80s and 90s. Mid level lapse rates are rather weak, so MLCAPE values will be <2000 J/kg. Given relatively weak winds aloft, thunderstorm organization is expected to be marginal. Nevertheless, a few strong storms capable of locally gusty/damaging winds are possible through the afternoon. Please refer to MCD #1352 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected from parts the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern High Plains, and into the Four Corners vicinity. A few strong storms may occur from parts of the Lower Great Lakes to southern New England. ...Discussion... Only two notable changes were made to the previous convective outlook. Otherwise the previous forecast thinking remains on track. 1) Have increased severe-wind probabilities to 15 percent and a categorical Slight Risk over southern portions of New England. Despite modest deep-layer westerly flow, steep 0-3 km lapse rates (7.5 to 8.5 deg C/km) and around 2 inches PW have yielded an environment that will favor multicells sporadically capable of strong to locally severe gusts (50-65 mph) and wind damage. A linear cluster near the NY/MA/CT border will likely push eastward over the next 2-4 hours and reach the CT/RI coast, and this area has been highlighted with recently issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #444. 2) Included southwest NE in Slight-Risk equivalent severe wind probabilities based on the latest satellite/observational trends. Storms that potentially develop over the next few hours within southwest NE may yield a severe-wind hazard given the steep lapse rate environment. ..Smith.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Four Corners into WY... Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper trough over NV, with an associated 40+kt mid-level speed max tracking from northern AZ into UT/CO. Beneath this strengthening wind field and large-scale ascent, considerable low-level moisture is present today with dewpoints in the 50s across much eastern UT/western CO and southwest WY. Pockets of strong daytime heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of hail and damaging winds for several hours this afternoon and evening. ...MT/WY... Several weak shortwave troughs are noted this morning moving east-northeastward across the northern Rockies. These features, combined with persistent easterly low-level winds across central/eastern MT will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development. Relatively isolated supercells are expected over MT, with more convective coverage farther south into eastern WY and western SD/NE. Storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds, along with the possibility of a tornado or two (mainly over parts of MT). ...Central Plains... A well-defined surface boundary extends across northern NE into southern MN. Considerable heating to the south of this boundary, along with strengthening southerly low-level winds/convergence by late afternoon, will result in scattered thunderstorms in vicinity of the front. Sufficient flow aloft and ample CAPE will promote a risk of a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail. ...Lower MI... Pockets of strong heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms over parts of central and southern Lower MI. This area is along the southern fringe of stronger westerlies, with 25-30 knots of flow at 500mb. This might be sufficient for a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ...NY/PA/Southern New England... Hot and humid conditions are expected today across much of PA/NY and southern New England, with dewpoints in the 70s and temperatures well into the 80s and 90s. Mid level lapse rates are rather weak, so MLCAPE values will be <2000 J/kg. Given relatively weak winds aloft, thunderstorm organization is expected to be marginal. Nevertheless, a few strong storms capable of locally gusty/damaging winds are possible through the afternoon. Please refer to MCD #1352 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected from parts the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern High Plains, and into the Four Corners vicinity. A few strong storms may occur from parts of the Lower Great Lakes to southern New England. ...Discussion... Only two notable changes were made to the previous convective outlook. Otherwise the previous forecast thinking remains on track. 1) Have increased severe-wind probabilities to 15 percent and a categorical Slight Risk over southern portions of New England. Despite modest deep-layer westerly flow, steep 0-3 km lapse rates (7.5 to 8.5 deg C/km) and around 2 inches PW have yielded an environment that will favor multicells sporadically capable of strong to locally severe gusts (50-65 mph) and wind damage. A linear cluster near the NY/MA/CT border will likely push eastward over the next 2-4 hours and reach the CT/RI coast, and this area has been highlighted with recently issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #444. 2) Included southwest NE in Slight-Risk equivalent severe wind probabilities based on the latest satellite/observational trends. Storms that potentially develop over the next few hours within southwest NE may yield a severe-wind hazard given the steep lapse rate environment. ..Smith.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Four Corners into WY... Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper trough over NV, with an associated 40+kt mid-level speed max tracking from northern AZ into UT/CO. Beneath this strengthening wind field and large-scale ascent, considerable low-level moisture is present today with dewpoints in the 50s across much eastern UT/western CO and southwest WY. Pockets of strong daytime heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of hail and damaging winds for several hours this afternoon and evening. ...MT/WY... Several weak shortwave troughs are noted this morning moving east-northeastward across the northern Rockies. These features, combined with persistent easterly low-level winds across central/eastern MT will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development. Relatively isolated supercells are expected over MT, with more convective coverage farther south into eastern WY and western SD/NE. Storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds, along with the possibility of a tornado or two (mainly over parts of MT). ...Central Plains... A well-defined surface boundary extends across northern NE into southern MN. Considerable heating to the south of this boundary, along with strengthening southerly low-level winds/convergence by late afternoon, will result in scattered thunderstorms in vicinity of the front. Sufficient flow aloft and ample CAPE will promote a risk of a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail. ...Lower MI... Pockets of strong heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms over parts of central and southern Lower MI. This area is along the southern fringe of stronger westerlies, with 25-30 knots of flow at 500mb. This might be sufficient for a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ...NY/PA/Southern New England... Hot and humid conditions are expected today across much of PA/NY and southern New England, with dewpoints in the 70s and temperatures well into the 80s and 90s. Mid level lapse rates are rather weak, so MLCAPE values will be <2000 J/kg. Given relatively weak winds aloft, thunderstorm organization is expected to be marginal. Nevertheless, a few strong storms capable of locally gusty/damaging winds are possible through the afternoon. Please refer to MCD #1352 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected from parts the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern High Plains, and into the Four Corners vicinity. A few strong storms may occur from parts of the Lower Great Lakes to southern New England. ...Discussion... Only two notable changes were made to the previous convective outlook. Otherwise the previous forecast thinking remains on track. 1) Have increased severe-wind probabilities to 15 percent and a categorical Slight Risk over southern portions of New England. Despite modest deep-layer westerly flow, steep 0-3 km lapse rates (7.5 to 8.5 deg C/km) and around 2 inches PW have yielded an environment that will favor multicells sporadically capable of strong to locally severe gusts (50-65 mph) and wind damage. A linear cluster near the NY/MA/CT border will likely push eastward over the next 2-4 hours and reach the CT/RI coast, and this area has been highlighted with recently issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #444. 2) Included southwest NE in Slight-Risk equivalent severe wind probabilities based on the latest satellite/observational trends. Storms that potentially develop over the next few hours within southwest NE may yield a severe-wind hazard given the steep lapse rate environment. ..Smith.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Four Corners into WY... Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper trough over NV, with an associated 40+kt mid-level speed max tracking from northern AZ into UT/CO. Beneath this strengthening wind field and large-scale ascent, considerable low-level moisture is present today with dewpoints in the 50s across much eastern UT/western CO and southwest WY. Pockets of strong daytime heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of hail and damaging winds for several hours this afternoon and evening. ...MT/WY... Several weak shortwave troughs are noted this morning moving east-northeastward across the northern Rockies. These features, combined with persistent easterly low-level winds across central/eastern MT will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development. Relatively isolated supercells are expected over MT, with more convective coverage farther south into eastern WY and western SD/NE. Storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds, along with the possibility of a tornado or two (mainly over parts of MT). ...Central Plains... A well-defined surface boundary extends across northern NE into southern MN. Considerable heating to the south of this boundary, along with strengthening southerly low-level winds/convergence by late afternoon, will result in scattered thunderstorms in vicinity of the front. Sufficient flow aloft and ample CAPE will promote a risk of a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail. ...Lower MI... Pockets of strong heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms over parts of central and southern Lower MI. This area is along the southern fringe of stronger westerlies, with 25-30 knots of flow at 500mb. This might be sufficient for a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ...NY/PA/Southern New England... Hot and humid conditions are expected today across much of PA/NY and southern New England, with dewpoints in the 70s and temperatures well into the 80s and 90s. Mid level lapse rates are rather weak, so MLCAPE values will be <2000 J/kg. Given relatively weak winds aloft, thunderstorm organization is expected to be marginal. Nevertheless, a few strong storms capable of locally gusty/damaging winds are possible through the afternoon. Please refer to MCD #1352 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected from parts the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern High Plains, and into the Four Corners vicinity. A few strong storms may occur from parts of the Lower Great Lakes to southern New England. ...Discussion... Only two notable changes were made to the previous convective outlook. Otherwise the previous forecast thinking remains on track. 1) Have increased severe-wind probabilities to 15 percent and a categorical Slight Risk over southern portions of New England. Despite modest deep-layer westerly flow, steep 0-3 km lapse rates (7.5 to 8.5 deg C/km) and around 2 inches PW have yielded an environment that will favor multicells sporadically capable of strong to locally severe gusts (50-65 mph) and wind damage. A linear cluster near the NY/MA/CT border will likely push eastward over the next 2-4 hours and reach the CT/RI coast, and this area has been highlighted with recently issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #444. 2) Included southwest NE in Slight-Risk equivalent severe wind probabilities based on the latest satellite/observational trends. Storms that potentially develop over the next few hours within southwest NE may yield a severe-wind hazard given the steep lapse rate environment. ..Smith.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Four Corners into WY... Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper trough over NV, with an associated 40+kt mid-level speed max tracking from northern AZ into UT/CO. Beneath this strengthening wind field and large-scale ascent, considerable low-level moisture is present today with dewpoints in the 50s across much eastern UT/western CO and southwest WY. Pockets of strong daytime heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of hail and damaging winds for several hours this afternoon and evening. ...MT/WY... Several weak shortwave troughs are noted this morning moving east-northeastward across the northern Rockies. These features, combined with persistent easterly low-level winds across central/eastern MT will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development. Relatively isolated supercells are expected over MT, with more convective coverage farther south into eastern WY and western SD/NE. Storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds, along with the possibility of a tornado or two (mainly over parts of MT). ...Central Plains... A well-defined surface boundary extends across northern NE into southern MN. Considerable heating to the south of this boundary, along with strengthening southerly low-level winds/convergence by late afternoon, will result in scattered thunderstorms in vicinity of the front. Sufficient flow aloft and ample CAPE will promote a risk of a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail. ...Lower MI... Pockets of strong heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms over parts of central and southern Lower MI. This area is along the southern fringe of stronger westerlies, with 25-30 knots of flow at 500mb. This might be sufficient for a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ...NY/PA/Southern New England... Hot and humid conditions are expected today across much of PA/NY and southern New England, with dewpoints in the 70s and temperatures well into the 80s and 90s. Mid level lapse rates are rather weak, so MLCAPE values will be <2000 J/kg. Given relatively weak winds aloft, thunderstorm organization is expected to be marginal. Nevertheless, a few strong storms capable of locally gusty/damaging winds are possible through the afternoon. Please refer to MCD #1352 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected from parts the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern High Plains, and into the Four Corners vicinity. A few strong storms may occur from parts of the Lower Great Lakes to southern New England. ...Discussion... Only two notable changes were made to the previous convective outlook. Otherwise the previous forecast thinking remains on track. 1) Have increased severe-wind probabilities to 15 percent and a categorical Slight Risk over southern portions of New England. Despite modest deep-layer westerly flow, steep 0-3 km lapse rates (7.5 to 8.5 deg C/km) and around 2 inches PW have yielded an environment that will favor multicells sporadically capable of strong to locally severe gusts (50-65 mph) and wind damage. A linear cluster near the NY/MA/CT border will likely push eastward over the next 2-4 hours and reach the CT/RI coast, and this area has been highlighted with recently issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #444. 2) Included southwest NE in Slight-Risk equivalent severe wind probabilities based on the latest satellite/observational trends. Storms that potentially develop over the next few hours within southwest NE may yield a severe-wind hazard given the steep lapse rate environment. ..Smith.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Four Corners into WY... Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper trough over NV, with an associated 40+kt mid-level speed max tracking from northern AZ into UT/CO. Beneath this strengthening wind field and large-scale ascent, considerable low-level moisture is present today with dewpoints in the 50s across much eastern UT/western CO and southwest WY. Pockets of strong daytime heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of hail and damaging winds for several hours this afternoon and evening. ...MT/WY... Several weak shortwave troughs are noted this morning moving east-northeastward across the northern Rockies. These features, combined with persistent easterly low-level winds across central/eastern MT will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development. Relatively isolated supercells are expected over MT, with more convective coverage farther south into eastern WY and western SD/NE. Storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds, along with the possibility of a tornado or two (mainly over parts of MT). ...Central Plains... A well-defined surface boundary extends across northern NE into southern MN. Considerable heating to the south of this boundary, along with strengthening southerly low-level winds/convergence by late afternoon, will result in scattered thunderstorms in vicinity of the front. Sufficient flow aloft and ample CAPE will promote a risk of a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail. ...Lower MI... Pockets of strong heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms over parts of central and southern Lower MI. This area is along the southern fringe of stronger westerlies, with 25-30 knots of flow at 500mb. This might be sufficient for a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ...NY/PA/Southern New England... Hot and humid conditions are expected today across much of PA/NY and southern New England, with dewpoints in the 70s and temperatures well into the 80s and 90s. Mid level lapse rates are rather weak, so MLCAPE values will be <2000 J/kg. Given relatively weak winds aloft, thunderstorm organization is expected to be marginal. Nevertheless, a few strong storms capable of locally gusty/damaging winds are possible through the afternoon. Please refer to MCD #1352 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected from parts the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern High Plains, and into the Four Corners vicinity. A few strong storms may occur from parts of the Lower Great Lakes to southern New England. ...Discussion... Only two notable changes were made to the previous convective outlook. Otherwise the previous forecast thinking remains on track. 1) Have increased severe-wind probabilities to 15 percent and a categorical Slight Risk over southern portions of New England. Despite modest deep-layer westerly flow, steep 0-3 km lapse rates (7.5 to 8.5 deg C/km) and around 2 inches PW have yielded an environment that will favor multicells sporadically capable of strong to locally severe gusts (50-65 mph) and wind damage. A linear cluster near the NY/MA/CT border will likely push eastward over the next 2-4 hours and reach the CT/RI coast, and this area has been highlighted with recently issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #444. 2) Included southwest NE in Slight-Risk equivalent severe wind probabilities based on the latest satellite/observational trends. Storms that potentially develop over the next few hours within southwest NE may yield a severe-wind hazard given the steep lapse rate environment. ..Smith.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Four Corners into WY... Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper trough over NV, with an associated 40+kt mid-level speed max tracking from northern AZ into UT/CO. Beneath this strengthening wind field and large-scale ascent, considerable low-level moisture is present today with dewpoints in the 50s across much eastern UT/western CO and southwest WY. Pockets of strong daytime heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of hail and damaging winds for several hours this afternoon and evening. ...MT/WY... Several weak shortwave troughs are noted this morning moving east-northeastward across the northern Rockies. These features, combined with persistent easterly low-level winds across central/eastern MT will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development. Relatively isolated supercells are expected over MT, with more convective coverage farther south into eastern WY and western SD/NE. Storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds, along with the possibility of a tornado or two (mainly over parts of MT). ...Central Plains... A well-defined surface boundary extends across northern NE into southern MN. Considerable heating to the south of this boundary, along with strengthening southerly low-level winds/convergence by late afternoon, will result in scattered thunderstorms in vicinity of the front. Sufficient flow aloft and ample CAPE will promote a risk of a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail. ...Lower MI... Pockets of strong heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms over parts of central and southern Lower MI. This area is along the southern fringe of stronger westerlies, with 25-30 knots of flow at 500mb. This might be sufficient for a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ...NY/PA/Southern New England... Hot and humid conditions are expected today across much of PA/NY and southern New England, with dewpoints in the 70s and temperatures well into the 80s and 90s. Mid level lapse rates are rather weak, so MLCAPE values will be <2000 J/kg. Given relatively weak winds aloft, thunderstorm organization is expected to be marginal. Nevertheless, a few strong storms capable of locally gusty/damaging winds are possible through the afternoon. Please refer to MCD #1352 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected from parts the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern High Plains, and into the Four Corners vicinity. A few strong storms may occur from parts of the Lower Great Lakes to southern New England. ...Discussion... Only two notable changes were made to the previous convective outlook. Otherwise the previous forecast thinking remains on track. 1) Have increased severe-wind probabilities to 15 percent and a categorical Slight Risk over southern portions of New England. Despite modest deep-layer westerly flow, steep 0-3 km lapse rates (7.5 to 8.5 deg C/km) and around 2 inches PW have yielded an environment that will favor multicells sporadically capable of strong to locally severe gusts (50-65 mph) and wind damage. A linear cluster near the NY/MA/CT border will likely push eastward over the next 2-4 hours and reach the CT/RI coast, and this area has been highlighted with recently issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #444. 2) Included southwest NE in Slight-Risk equivalent severe wind probabilities based on the latest satellite/observational trends. Storms that potentially develop over the next few hours within southwest NE may yield a severe-wind hazard given the steep lapse rate environment. ..Smith.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Four Corners into WY... Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper trough over NV, with an associated 40+kt mid-level speed max tracking from northern AZ into UT/CO. Beneath this strengthening wind field and large-scale ascent, considerable low-level moisture is present today with dewpoints in the 50s across much eastern UT/western CO and southwest WY. Pockets of strong daytime heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of hail and damaging winds for several hours this afternoon and evening. ...MT/WY... Several weak shortwave troughs are noted this morning moving east-northeastward across the northern Rockies. These features, combined with persistent easterly low-level winds across central/eastern MT will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development. Relatively isolated supercells are expected over MT, with more convective coverage farther south into eastern WY and western SD/NE. Storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds, along with the possibility of a tornado or two (mainly over parts of MT). ...Central Plains... A well-defined surface boundary extends across northern NE into southern MN. Considerable heating to the south of this boundary, along with strengthening southerly low-level winds/convergence by late afternoon, will result in scattered thunderstorms in vicinity of the front. Sufficient flow aloft and ample CAPE will promote a risk of a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail. ...Lower MI... Pockets of strong heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms over parts of central and southern Lower MI. This area is along the southern fringe of stronger westerlies, with 25-30 knots of flow at 500mb. This might be sufficient for a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ...NY/PA/Southern New England... Hot and humid conditions are expected today across much of PA/NY and southern New England, with dewpoints in the 70s and temperatures well into the 80s and 90s. Mid level lapse rates are rather weak, so MLCAPE values will be <2000 J/kg. Given relatively weak winds aloft, thunderstorm organization is expected to be marginal. Nevertheless, a few strong storms capable of locally gusty/damaging winds are possible through the afternoon. Please refer to MCD #1352 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected from parts the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern High Plains, and into the Four Corners vicinity. A few strong storms may occur from parts of the Lower Great Lakes to southern New England. ...Discussion... Only two notable changes were made to the previous convective outlook. Otherwise the previous forecast thinking remains on track. 1) Have increased severe-wind probabilities to 15 percent and a categorical Slight Risk over southern portions of New England. Despite modest deep-layer westerly flow, steep 0-3 km lapse rates (7.5 to 8.5 deg C/km) and around 2 inches PW have yielded an environment that will favor multicells sporadically capable of strong to locally severe gusts (50-65 mph) and wind damage. A linear cluster near the NY/MA/CT border will likely push eastward over the next 2-4 hours and reach the CT/RI coast, and this area has been highlighted with recently issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #444. 2) Included southwest NE in Slight-Risk equivalent severe wind probabilities based on the latest satellite/observational trends. Storms that potentially develop over the next few hours within southwest NE may yield a severe-wind hazard given the steep lapse rate environment. ..Smith.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Four Corners into WY... Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper trough over NV, with an associated 40+kt mid-level speed max tracking from northern AZ into UT/CO. Beneath this strengthening wind field and large-scale ascent, considerable low-level moisture is present today with dewpoints in the 50s across much eastern UT/western CO and southwest WY. Pockets of strong daytime heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of hail and damaging winds for several hours this afternoon and evening. ...MT/WY... Several weak shortwave troughs are noted this morning moving east-northeastward across the northern Rockies. These features, combined with persistent easterly low-level winds across central/eastern MT will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development. Relatively isolated supercells are expected over MT, with more convective coverage farther south into eastern WY and western SD/NE. Storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds, along with the possibility of a tornado or two (mainly over parts of MT). ...Central Plains... A well-defined surface boundary extends across northern NE into southern MN. Considerable heating to the south of this boundary, along with strengthening southerly low-level winds/convergence by late afternoon, will result in scattered thunderstorms in vicinity of the front. Sufficient flow aloft and ample CAPE will promote a risk of a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail. ...Lower MI... Pockets of strong heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms over parts of central and southern Lower MI. This area is along the southern fringe of stronger westerlies, with 25-30 knots of flow at 500mb. This might be sufficient for a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ...NY/PA/Southern New England... Hot and humid conditions are expected today across much of PA/NY and southern New England, with dewpoints in the 70s and temperatures well into the 80s and 90s. Mid level lapse rates are rather weak, so MLCAPE values will be <2000 J/kg. Given relatively weak winds aloft, thunderstorm organization is expected to be marginal. Nevertheless, a few strong storms capable of locally gusty/damaging winds are possible through the afternoon. Please refer to MCD #1352 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected from parts the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern High Plains, and into the Four Corners vicinity. A few strong storms may occur from parts of the Lower Great Lakes to southern New England. ...Discussion... Only two notable changes were made to the previous convective outlook. Otherwise the previous forecast thinking remains on track. 1) Have increased severe-wind probabilities to 15 percent and a categorical Slight Risk over southern portions of New England. Despite modest deep-layer westerly flow, steep 0-3 km lapse rates (7.5 to 8.5 deg C/km) and around 2 inches PW have yielded an environment that will favor multicells sporadically capable of strong to locally severe gusts (50-65 mph) and wind damage. A linear cluster near the NY/MA/CT border will likely push eastward over the next 2-4 hours and reach the CT/RI coast, and this area has been highlighted with recently issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #444. 2) Included southwest NE in Slight-Risk equivalent severe wind probabilities based on the latest satellite/observational trends. Storms that potentially develop over the next few hours within southwest NE may yield a severe-wind hazard given the steep lapse rate environment. ..Smith.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Four Corners into WY... Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper trough over NV, with an associated 40+kt mid-level speed max tracking from northern AZ into UT/CO. Beneath this strengthening wind field and large-scale ascent, considerable low-level moisture is present today with dewpoints in the 50s across much eastern UT/western CO and southwest WY. Pockets of strong daytime heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of hail and damaging winds for several hours this afternoon and evening. ...MT/WY... Several weak shortwave troughs are noted this morning moving east-northeastward across the northern Rockies. These features, combined with persistent easterly low-level winds across central/eastern MT will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development. Relatively isolated supercells are expected over MT, with more convective coverage farther south into eastern WY and western SD/NE. Storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds, along with the possibility of a tornado or two (mainly over parts of MT). ...Central Plains... A well-defined surface boundary extends across northern NE into southern MN. Considerable heating to the south of this boundary, along with strengthening southerly low-level winds/convergence by late afternoon, will result in scattered thunderstorms in vicinity of the front. Sufficient flow aloft and ample CAPE will promote a risk of a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail. ...Lower MI... Pockets of strong heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms over parts of central and southern Lower MI. This area is along the southern fringe of stronger westerlies, with 25-30 knots of flow at 500mb. This might be sufficient for a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ...NY/PA/Southern New England... Hot and humid conditions are expected today across much of PA/NY and southern New England, with dewpoints in the 70s and temperatures well into the 80s and 90s. Mid level lapse rates are rather weak, so MLCAPE values will be <2000 J/kg. Given relatively weak winds aloft, thunderstorm organization is expected to be marginal. Nevertheless, a few strong storms capable of locally gusty/damaging winds are possible through the afternoon. Please refer to MCD #1352 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected from parts the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern High Plains, and into the Four Corners vicinity. A few strong storms may occur from parts of the Lower Great Lakes to southern New England. ...Discussion... Only two notable changes were made to the previous convective outlook. Otherwise the previous forecast thinking remains on track. 1) Have increased severe-wind probabilities to 15 percent and a categorical Slight Risk over southern portions of New England. Despite modest deep-layer westerly flow, steep 0-3 km lapse rates (7.5 to 8.5 deg C/km) and around 2 inches PW have yielded an environment that will favor multicells sporadically capable of strong to locally severe gusts (50-65 mph) and wind damage. A linear cluster near the NY/MA/CT border will likely push eastward over the next 2-4 hours and reach the CT/RI coast, and this area has been highlighted with recently issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #444. 2) Included southwest NE in Slight-Risk equivalent severe wind probabilities based on the latest satellite/observational trends. Storms that potentially develop over the next few hours within southwest NE may yield a severe-wind hazard given the steep lapse rate environment. ..Smith.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Four Corners into WY... Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper trough over NV, with an associated 40+kt mid-level speed max tracking from northern AZ into UT/CO. Beneath this strengthening wind field and large-scale ascent, considerable low-level moisture is present today with dewpoints in the 50s across much eastern UT/western CO and southwest WY. Pockets of strong daytime heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of hail and damaging winds for several hours this afternoon and evening. ...MT/WY... Several weak shortwave troughs are noted this morning moving east-northeastward across the northern Rockies. These features, combined with persistent easterly low-level winds across central/eastern MT will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development. Relatively isolated supercells are expected over MT, with more convective coverage farther south into eastern WY and western SD/NE. Storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds, along with the possibility of a tornado or two (mainly over parts of MT). ...Central Plains... A well-defined surface boundary extends across northern NE into southern MN. Considerable heating to the south of this boundary, along with strengthening southerly low-level winds/convergence by late afternoon, will result in scattered thunderstorms in vicinity of the front. Sufficient flow aloft and ample CAPE will promote a risk of a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail. ...Lower MI... Pockets of strong heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms over parts of central and southern Lower MI. This area is along the southern fringe of stronger westerlies, with 25-30 knots of flow at 500mb. This might be sufficient for a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ...NY/PA/Southern New England... Hot and humid conditions are expected today across much of PA/NY and southern New England, with dewpoints in the 70s and temperatures well into the 80s and 90s. Mid level lapse rates are rather weak, so MLCAPE values will be <2000 J/kg. Given relatively weak winds aloft, thunderstorm organization is expected to be marginal. Nevertheless, a few strong storms capable of locally gusty/damaging winds are possible through the afternoon. Please refer to MCD #1352 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected from parts the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern High Plains, and into the Four Corners vicinity. A few strong storms may occur from parts of the Lower Great Lakes to southern New England. ...Discussion... Only two notable changes were made to the previous convective outlook. Otherwise the previous forecast thinking remains on track. 1) Have increased severe-wind probabilities to 15 percent and a categorical Slight Risk over southern portions of New England. Despite modest deep-layer westerly flow, steep 0-3 km lapse rates (7.5 to 8.5 deg C/km) and around 2 inches PW have yielded an environment that will favor multicells sporadically capable of strong to locally severe gusts (50-65 mph) and wind damage. A linear cluster near the NY/MA/CT border will likely push eastward over the next 2-4 hours and reach the CT/RI coast, and this area has been highlighted with recently issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #444. 2) Included southwest NE in Slight-Risk equivalent severe wind probabilities based on the latest satellite/observational trends. Storms that potentially develop over the next few hours within southwest NE may yield a severe-wind hazard given the steep lapse rate environment. ..Smith.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Four Corners into WY... Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper trough over NV, with an associated 40+kt mid-level speed max tracking from northern AZ into UT/CO. Beneath this strengthening wind field and large-scale ascent, considerable low-level moisture is present today with dewpoints in the 50s across much eastern UT/western CO and southwest WY. Pockets of strong daytime heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of hail and damaging winds for several hours this afternoon and evening. ...MT/WY... Several weak shortwave troughs are noted this morning moving east-northeastward across the northern Rockies. These features, combined with persistent easterly low-level winds across central/eastern MT will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development. Relatively isolated supercells are expected over MT, with more convective coverage farther south into eastern WY and western SD/NE. Storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds, along with the possibility of a tornado or two (mainly over parts of MT). ...Central Plains... A well-defined surface boundary extends across northern NE into southern MN. Considerable heating to the south of this boundary, along with strengthening southerly low-level winds/convergence by late afternoon, will result in scattered thunderstorms in vicinity of the front. Sufficient flow aloft and ample CAPE will promote a risk of a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail. ...Lower MI... Pockets of strong heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms over parts of central and southern Lower MI. This area is along the southern fringe of stronger westerlies, with 25-30 knots of flow at 500mb. This might be sufficient for a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ...NY/PA/Southern New England... Hot and humid conditions are expected today across much of PA/NY and southern New England, with dewpoints in the 70s and temperatures well into the 80s and 90s. Mid level lapse rates are rather weak, so MLCAPE values will be <2000 J/kg. Given relatively weak winds aloft, thunderstorm organization is expected to be marginal. Nevertheless, a few strong storms capable of locally gusty/damaging winds are possible through the afternoon. Please refer to MCD #1352 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected from parts the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern High Plains, and into the Four Corners vicinity. A few strong storms may occur from parts of the Lower Great Lakes to southern New England. ...Discussion... Only two notable changes were made to the previous convective outlook. Otherwise the previous forecast thinking remains on track. 1) Have increased severe-wind probabilities to 15 percent and a categorical Slight Risk over southern portions of New England. Despite modest deep-layer westerly flow, steep 0-3 km lapse rates (7.5 to 8.5 deg C/km) and around 2 inches PW have yielded an environment that will favor multicells sporadically capable of strong to locally severe gusts (50-65 mph) and wind damage. A linear cluster near the NY/MA/CT border will likely push eastward over the next 2-4 hours and reach the CT/RI coast, and this area has been highlighted with recently issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #444. 2) Included southwest NE in Slight-Risk equivalent severe wind probabilities based on the latest satellite/observational trends. Storms that potentially develop over the next few hours within southwest NE may yield a severe-wind hazard given the steep lapse rate environment. ..Smith.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Four Corners into WY... Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper trough over NV, with an associated 40+kt mid-level speed max tracking from northern AZ into UT/CO. Beneath this strengthening wind field and large-scale ascent, considerable low-level moisture is present today with dewpoints in the 50s across much eastern UT/western CO and southwest WY. Pockets of strong daytime heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of hail and damaging winds for several hours this afternoon and evening. ...MT/WY... Several weak shortwave troughs are noted this morning moving east-northeastward across the northern Rockies. These features, combined with persistent easterly low-level winds across central/eastern MT will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development. Relatively isolated supercells are expected over MT, with more convective coverage farther south into eastern WY and western SD/NE. Storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds, along with the possibility of a tornado or two (mainly over parts of MT). ...Central Plains... A well-defined surface boundary extends across northern NE into southern MN. Considerable heating to the south of this boundary, along with strengthening southerly low-level winds/convergence by late afternoon, will result in scattered thunderstorms in vicinity of the front. Sufficient flow aloft and ample CAPE will promote a risk of a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail. ...Lower MI... Pockets of strong heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms over parts of central and southern Lower MI. This area is along the southern fringe of stronger westerlies, with 25-30 knots of flow at 500mb. This might be sufficient for a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ...NY/PA/Southern New England... Hot and humid conditions are expected today across much of PA/NY and southern New England, with dewpoints in the 70s and temperatures well into the 80s and 90s. Mid level lapse rates are rather weak, so MLCAPE values will be <2000 J/kg. Given relatively weak winds aloft, thunderstorm organization is expected to be marginal. Nevertheless, a few strong storms capable of locally gusty/damaging winds are possible through the afternoon. Please refer to MCD #1352 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected from parts the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern High Plains, and into the Four Corners vicinity. A few strong storms may occur from parts of the Lower Great Lakes to southern New England. ...Discussion... Only two notable changes were made to the previous convective outlook. Otherwise the previous forecast thinking remains on track. 1) Have increased severe-wind probabilities to 15 percent and a categorical Slight Risk over southern portions of New England. Despite modest deep-layer westerly flow, steep 0-3 km lapse rates (7.5 to 8.5 deg C/km) and around 2 inches PW have yielded an environment that will favor multicells sporadically capable of strong to locally severe gusts (50-65 mph) and wind damage. A linear cluster near the NY/MA/CT border will likely push eastward over the next 2-4 hours and reach the CT/RI coast, and this area has been highlighted with recently issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #444. 2) Included southwest NE in Slight-Risk equivalent severe wind probabilities based on the latest satellite/observational trends. Storms that potentially develop over the next few hours within southwest NE may yield a severe-wind hazard given the steep lapse rate environment. ..Smith.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Four Corners into WY... Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper trough over NV, with an associated 40+kt mid-level speed max tracking from northern AZ into UT/CO. Beneath this strengthening wind field and large-scale ascent, considerable low-level moisture is present today with dewpoints in the 50s across much eastern UT/western CO and southwest WY. Pockets of strong daytime heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of hail and damaging winds for several hours this afternoon and evening. ...MT/WY... Several weak shortwave troughs are noted this morning moving east-northeastward across the northern Rockies. These features, combined with persistent easterly low-level winds across central/eastern MT will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development. Relatively isolated supercells are expected over MT, with more convective coverage farther south into eastern WY and western SD/NE. Storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds, along with the possibility of a tornado or two (mainly over parts of MT). ...Central Plains... A well-defined surface boundary extends across northern NE into southern MN. Considerable heating to the south of this boundary, along with strengthening southerly low-level winds/convergence by late afternoon, will result in scattered thunderstorms in vicinity of the front. Sufficient flow aloft and ample CAPE will promote a risk of a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail. ...Lower MI... Pockets of strong heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms over parts of central and southern Lower MI. This area is along the southern fringe of stronger westerlies, with 25-30 knots of flow at 500mb. This might be sufficient for a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ...NY/PA/Southern New England... Hot and humid conditions are expected today across much of PA/NY and southern New England, with dewpoints in the 70s and temperatures well into the 80s and 90s. Mid level lapse rates are rather weak, so MLCAPE values will be <2000 J/kg. Given relatively weak winds aloft, thunderstorm organization is expected to be marginal. Nevertheless, a few strong storms capable of locally gusty/damaging winds are possible through the afternoon. Please refer to MCD #1352 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected from parts the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern High Plains, and into the Four Corners vicinity. A few strong storms may occur from parts of the Lower Great Lakes to southern New England. ...Discussion... Only two notable changes were made to the previous convective outlook. Otherwise the previous forecast thinking remains on track. 1) Have increased severe-wind probabilities to 15 percent and a categorical Slight Risk over southern portions of New England. Despite modest deep-layer westerly flow, steep 0-3 km lapse rates (7.5 to 8.5 deg C/km) and around 2 inches PW have yielded an environment that will favor multicells sporadically capable of strong to locally severe gusts (50-65 mph) and wind damage. A linear cluster near the NY/MA/CT border will likely push eastward over the next 2-4 hours and reach the CT/RI coast, and this area has been highlighted with recently issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #444. 2) Included southwest NE in Slight-Risk equivalent severe wind probabilities based on the latest satellite/observational trends. Storms that potentially develop over the next few hours within southwest NE may yield a severe-wind hazard given the steep lapse rate environment. ..Smith.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Four Corners into WY... Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper trough over NV, with an associated 40+kt mid-level speed max tracking from northern AZ into UT/CO. Beneath this strengthening wind field and large-scale ascent, considerable low-level moisture is present today with dewpoints in the 50s across much eastern UT/western CO and southwest WY. Pockets of strong daytime heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of hail and damaging winds for several hours this afternoon and evening. ...MT/WY... Several weak shortwave troughs are noted this morning moving east-northeastward across the northern Rockies. These features, combined with persistent easterly low-level winds across central/eastern MT will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development. Relatively isolated supercells are expected over MT, with more convective coverage farther south into eastern WY and western SD/NE. Storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds, along with the possibility of a tornado or two (mainly over parts of MT). ...Central Plains... A well-defined surface boundary extends across northern NE into southern MN. Considerable heating to the south of this boundary, along with strengthening southerly low-level winds/convergence by late afternoon, will result in scattered thunderstorms in vicinity of the front. Sufficient flow aloft and ample CAPE will promote a risk of a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail. ...Lower MI... Pockets of strong heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms over parts of central and southern Lower MI. This area is along the southern fringe of stronger westerlies, with 25-30 knots of flow at 500mb. This might be sufficient for a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ...NY/PA/Southern New England... Hot and humid conditions are expected today across much of PA/NY and southern New England, with dewpoints in the 70s and temperatures well into the 80s and 90s. Mid level lapse rates are rather weak, so MLCAPE values will be <2000 J/kg. Given relatively weak winds aloft, thunderstorm organization is expected to be marginal. Nevertheless, a few strong storms capable of locally gusty/damaging winds are possible through the afternoon. Please refer to MCD #1352 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected from parts the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern High Plains, and into the Four Corners vicinity. A few strong storms may occur from parts of the Lower Great Lakes to southern New England. ...Discussion... Only two notable changes were made to the previous convective outlook. Otherwise the previous forecast thinking remains on track. 1) Have increased severe-wind probabilities to 15 percent and a categorical Slight Risk over southern portions of New England. Despite modest deep-layer westerly flow, steep 0-3 km lapse rates (7.5 to 8.5 deg C/km) and around 2 inches PW have yielded an environment that will favor multicells sporadically capable of strong to locally severe gusts (50-65 mph) and wind damage. A linear cluster near the NY/MA/CT border will likely push eastward over the next 2-4 hours and reach the CT/RI coast, and this area has been highlighted with recently issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #444. 2) Included southwest NE in Slight-Risk equivalent severe wind probabilities based on the latest satellite/observational trends. Storms that potentially develop over the next few hours within southwest NE may yield a severe-wind hazard given the steep lapse rate environment. ..Smith.. 06/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...Four Corners into WY... Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper trough over NV, with an associated 40+kt mid-level speed max tracking from northern AZ into UT/CO. Beneath this strengthening wind field and large-scale ascent, considerable low-level moisture is present today with dewpoints in the 50s across much eastern UT/western CO and southwest WY. Pockets of strong daytime heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of hail and damaging winds for several hours this afternoon and evening. ...MT/WY... Several weak shortwave troughs are noted this morning moving east-northeastward across the northern Rockies. These features, combined with persistent easterly low-level winds across central/eastern MT will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development. Relatively isolated supercells are expected over MT, with more convective coverage farther south into eastern WY and western SD/NE. Storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds, along with the possibility of a tornado or two (mainly over parts of MT). ...Central Plains... A well-defined surface boundary extends across northern NE into southern MN. Considerable heating to the south of this boundary, along with strengthening southerly low-level winds/convergence by late afternoon, will result in scattered thunderstorms in vicinity of the front. Sufficient flow aloft and ample CAPE will promote a risk of a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail. ...Lower MI... Pockets of strong heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms over parts of central and southern Lower MI. This area is along the southern fringe of stronger westerlies, with 25-30 knots of flow at 500mb. This might be sufficient for a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ...NY/PA/Southern New England... Hot and humid conditions are expected today across much of PA/NY and southern New England, with dewpoints in the 70s and temperatures well into the 80s and 90s. Mid level lapse rates are rather weak, so MLCAPE values will be <2000 J/kg. Given relatively weak winds aloft, thunderstorm organization is expected to be marginal. Nevertheless, a few strong storms capable of locally gusty/damaging winds are possible through the afternoon. Please refer to MCD #1352 for further details. Read more

MD 1357 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...MASSACHUSETTS...CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1357 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern Vermont...southern New Hampshire...Massachusetts...Connecticut...Rhode Island Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 211846Z - 212015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A locally higher damaging gust threat exists across portions of New England in advance of clustering thunderstorm cells. Conditions will be monitored for the need of a WW issuance pending continued favorable trends for more damaging winds. DISCUSSION...Pulse cells and smaller multicellular clusters are attempting to organize into a loosely organized MCS in far eastern NY. Given the potential for cold pool mergers, preceded by steep low-level lapse rates, it is possible that a more organized damaging gust threat could materialize over the next few hours. 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear (whose vectors are oriented roughly normal to the long-axis of the potential MCS) may also contribute to the organization of an efficient damaging-gust-producing thunderstorm complex. Should further convective organization occur, a WW issuance eventually may be needed. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY... LAT...LON 42697381 43037361 43177310 43167119 42617080 42067076 41597131 41447211 41507286 41607331 42067378 42697381 Read more

WW 0442 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 442 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..06/21/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...BYZ...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 442 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC005-013-015-027-035-037-041-045-051-059-065-069-073-099-101- 107-212040- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CASCADE CHOUTEAU FERGUS GLACIER GOLDEN VALLEY HILL JUDITH BASIN LIBERTY MEAGHER MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM PONDERA TETON TOOLE WHEATLAND THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more