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MD 1449 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...AND PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 1449 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Areas affected...northeastern New Mexico...southeastern Colorado...southwestern Kansas...and portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 272147Z - 272315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms developing across portions of the central/southern High Plains region from southeastern Colorado/northeastern New Mexico northeastward into southwestern Kansas will pose increasing risk for locally severe wind gusts. WW may be required in the next hour. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows storms gradually increasing in coverage from northeastern New Mexico and adjacent southeastern Colorado, to near of KTQX (Scott City, KS). The storms are occurring in a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer, where modest CAPE above the LCL is supporting a few stronger updrafts. The development appears to be occurring in part due to response of the environment to a very subtle/mid-level disturbance moving eastward across southern Colorado at this time. While a more unstable airmass -- and thus potential for more robust convection -- exists farther north, into northwestern Kansas and points north, the deep/dry boundary layer will promote potential for evaporatively enhanced downdrafts, and associated potential for severe-caliber gusts locally. We will continue to monitor this region in the short term, for signs that risk may increase in coverage, which could support the need to consider WW issuance. ..Goss/Smith.. 06/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 36450465 37650383 38540113 38819962 38329944 36900015 35810125 35800467 36450465 Read more

WW 476 TORNADO ND 272145Z - 280300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 476 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western North Dakota * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Isolated supercells will possibly develop late this afternoon into the evening across western North Dakota. In addition to the threat for a couple of tornadoes, a risk for large to very large hail (diameters 1 to 3 inches) and severe gusts will also accompany any discrete supercells. A band of severe thunderstorms is forecast to move west to east across the Watch area later this evening. A risk for a tornado may exist with any supercell embedded within the broken band. Severe gusts (60-80 mph) will be likely with the more intense portions of the band of storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast of Williston ND to 60 miles south southwest of Dickinson ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 473...WW 474...WW 475... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Smith Read more

WW 0474 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 474 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1451 ..KARSTENS..06/27/24 ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 474 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC029-033-045-077-081-083-085-091-103-107-113-272340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DELTA DOLORES GARFIELD MESA MOFFAT MONTEZUMA MONTROSE OURAY RIO BLANCO ROUTT SAN MIGUEL UTC007-009-013-015-017-019-025-031-037-041-047-055-272340- UT . UTAH COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARBON DAGGETT DUCHESNE EMERY GARFIELD GRAND KANE PIUTE SAN JUAN SEVIER UINTAH WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0473 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 473 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S SHR TO 15 WSW 4BQ TO 35 ESE MLS TO 30 WSW GDV TO 10 W OLF TO 70 NNE GGW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1450 ..KARSTENS..06/27/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 473 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-019-021-025-055-075-079-083-085-091-109-272340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER DANIELS DAWSON FALLON MCCONE POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT SHERIDAN WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0477 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0477 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0477 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0477 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1448 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 473... FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1448 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Areas affected...Portions of far eastern Montana and western North Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473... Valid 272057Z - 272230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473 continues. SUMMARY...Severe risk is increasing across far eastern Montana into western ND, including the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. DISCUSSION...Cumulus is deepening along an effective warm front extending east-southeastward from eastern MT into western ND, and isolated convective initiation is underway over Wibaux County MT. Regional VWP shows ample low-level hodograph curvature associated with backed surface winds beneath a plume of strong low-level warm-air advection. Additionally, diurnal heating along the boundary has yielded moderate surface-based instability. These factors, along with around 50 kt of effective shear, could support a couple semi-discrete supercells. Large hail and damaging winds are the main concern, though the favorable low-level hodograph curvature could support a tornado threat as well. A watch will eventually be needed into western North Dakota for the above-mentioned severe risk and for severe storms tracking eastward out of eastern Montana. ..Weinman/Hart.. 06/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 46200368 46610441 47130482 47600479 47860461 48130421 48070393 47910348 47450292 47040265 46360279 46120317 46200368 Read more

WW 477 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 272215Z - 280500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 477 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 515 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West and Southwest Kansas Far Northwest Oklahoma and the Panhandle Northern Texas Panhandle * Effective this Thursday afternoon from 515 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop this evening over western parts of the Watch area, and move east into a more moist airmass as a low-level jet intensifies. The stronger storms will be capable of a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) and perhaps large hail with the stronger thunderstorm cores. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northeast of Garden City KS to 40 miles south of Guymon OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 473...WW 474...WW 475...WW 476... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Smith Read more

WW 0475 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 475 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KARSTENS..06/27/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 475 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-075-095-115-125-272340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK YUMA KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-203-272340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM GREELEY LOGAN NORTON RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC005-013-029-031-033-045-049-057-063-069-075-085-087-091-101- 111-113-117-123-135-145-161-171-272340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

The Village of Firefox posted a water restriction notice on its website on June 25. “The current dry weather conditions have placed a severe burden on the Foxfire Village Water System. All non-essential uses of drinking water are banned. All garden and landscape irrigation must be reduced to the minimum amount necessary for the survival of vegetation.” The Moore County water system was stressed by the high demand as people irrigate their lawns. The public works director for the Village of Pinehurst was keeping an eye on the water tanks. The public works director for Carthage was also closely monitoring water use to determine if and when water restrictions might be needed. The Southern Pines Pilot (Southern Pines, N.C.), June 27, 2024

WW 0476 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0476 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0476 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0476 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

The North Carolina Forest Service urged the public to avoid outdoor burning due to the persistent dry weather. There is no state-issued burn ban in effect at present. “Outdoor burning and at-home fireworks are discouraged until your area receives substantial, soaking rain,” said Commissioner of Agriculture Steve Troxler. “Fire danger is high. Fuels can ignite quickly, and unattended fires are likely to escape and spread in a hurry. We understand fireworks are a major part of Independence Day celebrations and festivities, and that’s why we’re encouraging folks to attend professional fireworks displays rather than conducting their own.” Agriculture statewide was suffering from the lack of rain. Columbus County News (Whiteville, N.C.), June 27, 2024

MD 1447 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1447 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the central and northern High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 272018Z - 272145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Monitoring the area for increasing severe-storm potential this afternoon. A watch will be needed for parts of the area within the hour. DISCUSSION...Deepening boundary-layer cumulus is evident in the vicinity of the Black Hills as well as far northeast CO into the NE Panhandle this afternoon -- generally focused along a lee trough/surface wind shift. During the next couple hours, the lee trough will deepen as midlevel westerly flow strengthens across the northern and central Rockies. This will support a gradual increase in thunderstorm development over the next few hours, given diurnal heating of a moist air mass (upper 50s to middle/upper 60s dewpoints) and removal of MLCINH along the lee trough. Storms should generally track eastward into the increasingly rich moisture, where steep midlevel lapse rates are yielding moderate surface-based instability. The 19Z UNR special sounding showed around 30 kt of effective shear, characterized by a long/mostly straight hodograph, and deep-layer shear should strengthen to around 40-50 kt with time. As a result, storms should organize into semi-discrete supercells and organized clusters, with a risk of very large hail (potentially up to 3 inches) and severe gusts. A watch issuance is likely for parts of the area within the hour. ..Weinman/Hart.. 06/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 43520402 44730412 45490378 45760326 45860213 45770174 45370112 44440058 42140017 40379993 39270005 38960071 38860163 39110228 40230279 41450348 43520402 Read more

MD 1446 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1446 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Areas affected...central and eastern Utah into western Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 271843Z - 272115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms will continue to increase in coverage from Utah into western Colorado, with areas of severe wind or hail possibly developing. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar shows storms already developing over the higher terrain, with occasional signs of brief hail over southwest UT. Precipitable water values around around 1.00" over the entire region, which when combined with heating is resulting in over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. While the main shortwave trough will move north of the area, midlevel westerlies will increase to over 40 kt, elongating hodographs. Combined with steepening lapse rates, this should prove favorable for cells or small bows capable of damaging winds and marginal hail. As remaining inhibition is erased this afternoon, storms are likely to proceed across the lower elevations and sustain. As such, a watch is being considered. ..Jewell/Hart.. 06/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC... LAT...LON 37111299 38251251 38521257 38711286 38801370 39351368 39821311 40471164 40851056 41050943 40920865 40580815 40050776 39460749 38620740 37840779 37320973 37111299 Read more

Flash drought expanded in parts of northern Georgia, including Coweta County where Coweta County Water & Sewerage Authority asked customers to conserve as demand increased. WXIA TV 11 Online (Ga.), June 27, 2024

WW 0475 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0475 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0475 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0475 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0474 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 474 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..06/27/24 ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 474 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC029-033-045-077-081-083-085-091-103-107-113-272140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DELTA DOLORES GARFIELD MESA MOFFAT MONTEZUMA MONTROSE OURAY RIO BLANCO ROUTT SAN MIGUEL UTC007-009-013-015-017-019-025-031-037-041-047-055-272140- UT . UTAH COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARBON DAGGETT DUCHESNE EMERY GARFIELD GRAND KANE PIUTE SAN JUAN SEVIER UINTAH WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0474 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 474 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..06/27/24 ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 474 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC029-033-045-077-081-083-085-091-103-107-113-272140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DELTA DOLORES GARFIELD MESA MOFFAT MONTEZUMA MONTROSE OURAY RIO BLANCO ROUTT SAN MIGUEL UTC007-009-013-015-017-019-025-031-037-041-047-055-272140- UT . UTAH COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARBON DAGGETT DUCHESNE EMERY GARFIELD GRAND KANE PIUTE SAN JUAN SEVIER UINTAH WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more