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WW 0491 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 491 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1498 ..WEINMAN..06/30/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 491 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-005-302340- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT SUSSEX DCC001-302340- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035- 037-039-041-045-047-510-302340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL Read more

MD 1495 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1495 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Areas affected...east-central and southeastern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302045Z - 302245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm activity with potential for strong to severe wind to continue through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is increasing across portions of southern and central Arizona this afternoon. Daytime heating has yielded MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg. This, in addition to steep low to mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level flow, will result in a mix of cells and clusters with potential for strong to severe downburst winds and instances of small hail. This threat will likely remain localized and diminish after loss of daytime heating, precluding the need for a watch. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 31881252 32961254 33931215 34281138 33901006 33390956 32870917 31380916 31321101 31881252 Read more

MD 1494 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1494 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Areas affected...southern and central Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 302012Z - 302215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue across portions of Montana with an increase in threat for damaging winds and large hail through the afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues to increase in coverage across southwestern Montana. Recent radar trends have shown an uptick in lightning activity. Daytime heating across Montana has led to temperatures in the mid to upper 70 to low 80s across southern, central, and eastern Montana. Surface objective analysis indicates steep low to mid-level lapse rates in an environment characterized by MLCAPE around 250-500 J/kg. Instability is progged to increase through the afternoon, along with large scale lift as enhanced upper-level flow overspreads the region from the west. As a result, deep layer shear will also increase, aiding in more organized storms that will tend to grow upscale through time and pose a risk of damaging wind and some instances of large hail. Trends will be monitored, with potential for a watch to be needed in this region in the next 1-2 hrs. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...PIH...MSO... LAT...LON 45161317 46501182 47480909 47490759 46990707 45810612 45630624 45260973 45211076 44791177 44401275 44681314 45161317 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Mid-level ridging is forecast to amplify significantly over the Pacific Coast through the extended forecast period. As the ridge builds, stronger flow aloft will be shunted to the northeast over parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies through much of next week. While several perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the ridge, much of the Southwest will see extreme heat and dry conditions persist. Fire-weather concerns should increase through the period, especially as the upper ridge breaks down next weekend. ...Great Basin and Southwest... With ridge building through the first part of the extended period, very warm and dry surface conditions are likely to develop across parts of the Southwest. However, much of the stronger flow will remain displaced to the northeast, keeping surface winds modest through the first part of the work week. A slight increase in wind speeds is possible D4/Wed behind a dry cold front over parts of the northern Great Basin. 15-20 mph gusts and afternoon humidity of 10-20% could support several hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels. Flow aloft should weaken again toward the end of the week as the ridge temporarily strengthens. However, heading into the weekend, another weak trough should pass east of the ridge, potentially increasing dry and windy conditions over the Southwest. Through the reminder of the weekend into week 2, most guidance shows a decrease in ridge strength with a possible pattern shift toward western US troughing. Confidence in the result of this transition period remains very low as multiple model solutions are present. Some guidance shows an increase in showers and thunderstorm potential with increasing mid-level moisture, while others show a more substantial increase in hot, dry and windy conditions post ridging. Regardless of the outcome, an increase in fire-weather potential is very likely over parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, owing to the antecedent hot and dry period followed by ridge break down. ...CA... Beneath the upper ridge, extreme heat is expected over much of CA and the West Coast this week and into the weekend. While background winds should remain light, a low-level thermal trough may locally enhance dry and windy conditions across the northern and central parts of the state. A period of somewhat stronger northerly Sundowner winds may also develop D5/Thur into D6/Friday over southwest CA behind the weak trough passing to the east. While uncertain, locally higher fire-weather concerns could develop. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Mid-level ridging is forecast to amplify significantly over the Pacific Coast through the extended forecast period. As the ridge builds, stronger flow aloft will be shunted to the northeast over parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies through much of next week. While several perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the ridge, much of the Southwest will see extreme heat and dry conditions persist. Fire-weather concerns should increase through the period, especially as the upper ridge breaks down next weekend. ...Great Basin and Southwest... With ridge building through the first part of the extended period, very warm and dry surface conditions are likely to develop across parts of the Southwest. However, much of the stronger flow will remain displaced to the northeast, keeping surface winds modest through the first part of the work week. A slight increase in wind speeds is possible D4/Wed behind a dry cold front over parts of the northern Great Basin. 15-20 mph gusts and afternoon humidity of 10-20% could support several hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels. Flow aloft should weaken again toward the end of the week as the ridge temporarily strengthens. However, heading into the weekend, another weak trough should pass east of the ridge, potentially increasing dry and windy conditions over the Southwest. Through the reminder of the weekend into week 2, most guidance shows a decrease in ridge strength with a possible pattern shift toward western US troughing. Confidence in the result of this transition period remains very low as multiple model solutions are present. Some guidance shows an increase in showers and thunderstorm potential with increasing mid-level moisture, while others show a more substantial increase in hot, dry and windy conditions post ridging. Regardless of the outcome, an increase in fire-weather potential is very likely over parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, owing to the antecedent hot and dry period followed by ridge break down. ...CA... Beneath the upper ridge, extreme heat is expected over much of CA and the West Coast this week and into the weekend. While background winds should remain light, a low-level thermal trough may locally enhance dry and windy conditions across the northern and central parts of the state. A period of somewhat stronger northerly Sundowner winds may also develop D5/Thur into D6/Friday over southwest CA behind the weak trough passing to the east. While uncertain, locally higher fire-weather concerns could develop. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Mid-level ridging is forecast to amplify significantly over the Pacific Coast through the extended forecast period. As the ridge builds, stronger flow aloft will be shunted to the northeast over parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies through much of next week. While several perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the ridge, much of the Southwest will see extreme heat and dry conditions persist. Fire-weather concerns should increase through the period, especially as the upper ridge breaks down next weekend. ...Great Basin and Southwest... With ridge building through the first part of the extended period, very warm and dry surface conditions are likely to develop across parts of the Southwest. However, much of the stronger flow will remain displaced to the northeast, keeping surface winds modest through the first part of the work week. A slight increase in wind speeds is possible D4/Wed behind a dry cold front over parts of the northern Great Basin. 15-20 mph gusts and afternoon humidity of 10-20% could support several hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels. Flow aloft should weaken again toward the end of the week as the ridge temporarily strengthens. However, heading into the weekend, another weak trough should pass east of the ridge, potentially increasing dry and windy conditions over the Southwest. Through the reminder of the weekend into week 2, most guidance shows a decrease in ridge strength with a possible pattern shift toward western US troughing. Confidence in the result of this transition period remains very low as multiple model solutions are present. Some guidance shows an increase in showers and thunderstorm potential with increasing mid-level moisture, while others show a more substantial increase in hot, dry and windy conditions post ridging. Regardless of the outcome, an increase in fire-weather potential is very likely over parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, owing to the antecedent hot and dry period followed by ridge break down. ...CA... Beneath the upper ridge, extreme heat is expected over much of CA and the West Coast this week and into the weekend. While background winds should remain light, a low-level thermal trough may locally enhance dry and windy conditions across the northern and central parts of the state. A period of somewhat stronger northerly Sundowner winds may also develop D5/Thur into D6/Friday over southwest CA behind the weak trough passing to the east. While uncertain, locally higher fire-weather concerns could develop. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Mid-level ridging is forecast to amplify significantly over the Pacific Coast through the extended forecast period. As the ridge builds, stronger flow aloft will be shunted to the northeast over parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies through much of next week. While several perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the ridge, much of the Southwest will see extreme heat and dry conditions persist. Fire-weather concerns should increase through the period, especially as the upper ridge breaks down next weekend. ...Great Basin and Southwest... With ridge building through the first part of the extended period, very warm and dry surface conditions are likely to develop across parts of the Southwest. However, much of the stronger flow will remain displaced to the northeast, keeping surface winds modest through the first part of the work week. A slight increase in wind speeds is possible D4/Wed behind a dry cold front over parts of the northern Great Basin. 15-20 mph gusts and afternoon humidity of 10-20% could support several hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels. Flow aloft should weaken again toward the end of the week as the ridge temporarily strengthens. However, heading into the weekend, another weak trough should pass east of the ridge, potentially increasing dry and windy conditions over the Southwest. Through the reminder of the weekend into week 2, most guidance shows a decrease in ridge strength with a possible pattern shift toward western US troughing. Confidence in the result of this transition period remains very low as multiple model solutions are present. Some guidance shows an increase in showers and thunderstorm potential with increasing mid-level moisture, while others show a more substantial increase in hot, dry and windy conditions post ridging. Regardless of the outcome, an increase in fire-weather potential is very likely over parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, owing to the antecedent hot and dry period followed by ridge break down. ...CA... Beneath the upper ridge, extreme heat is expected over much of CA and the West Coast this week and into the weekend. While background winds should remain light, a low-level thermal trough may locally enhance dry and windy conditions across the northern and central parts of the state. A period of somewhat stronger northerly Sundowner winds may also develop D5/Thur into D6/Friday over southwest CA behind the weak trough passing to the east. While uncertain, locally higher fire-weather concerns could develop. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Mid-level ridging is forecast to amplify significantly over the Pacific Coast through the extended forecast period. As the ridge builds, stronger flow aloft will be shunted to the northeast over parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies through much of next week. While several perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the ridge, much of the Southwest will see extreme heat and dry conditions persist. Fire-weather concerns should increase through the period, especially as the upper ridge breaks down next weekend. ...Great Basin and Southwest... With ridge building through the first part of the extended period, very warm and dry surface conditions are likely to develop across parts of the Southwest. However, much of the stronger flow will remain displaced to the northeast, keeping surface winds modest through the first part of the work week. A slight increase in wind speeds is possible D4/Wed behind a dry cold front over parts of the northern Great Basin. 15-20 mph gusts and afternoon humidity of 10-20% could support several hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels. Flow aloft should weaken again toward the end of the week as the ridge temporarily strengthens. However, heading into the weekend, another weak trough should pass east of the ridge, potentially increasing dry and windy conditions over the Southwest. Through the reminder of the weekend into week 2, most guidance shows a decrease in ridge strength with a possible pattern shift toward western US troughing. Confidence in the result of this transition period remains very low as multiple model solutions are present. Some guidance shows an increase in showers and thunderstorm potential with increasing mid-level moisture, while others show a more substantial increase in hot, dry and windy conditions post ridging. Regardless of the outcome, an increase in fire-weather potential is very likely over parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, owing to the antecedent hot and dry period followed by ridge break down. ...CA... Beneath the upper ridge, extreme heat is expected over much of CA and the West Coast this week and into the weekend. While background winds should remain light, a low-level thermal trough may locally enhance dry and windy conditions across the northern and central parts of the state. A period of somewhat stronger northerly Sundowner winds may also develop D5/Thur into D6/Friday over southwest CA behind the weak trough passing to the east. While uncertain, locally higher fire-weather concerns could develop. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Mid-level ridging is forecast to amplify significantly over the Pacific Coast through the extended forecast period. As the ridge builds, stronger flow aloft will be shunted to the northeast over parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies through much of next week. While several perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the ridge, much of the Southwest will see extreme heat and dry conditions persist. Fire-weather concerns should increase through the period, especially as the upper ridge breaks down next weekend. ...Great Basin and Southwest... With ridge building through the first part of the extended period, very warm and dry surface conditions are likely to develop across parts of the Southwest. However, much of the stronger flow will remain displaced to the northeast, keeping surface winds modest through the first part of the work week. A slight increase in wind speeds is possible D4/Wed behind a dry cold front over parts of the northern Great Basin. 15-20 mph gusts and afternoon humidity of 10-20% could support several hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels. Flow aloft should weaken again toward the end of the week as the ridge temporarily strengthens. However, heading into the weekend, another weak trough should pass east of the ridge, potentially increasing dry and windy conditions over the Southwest. Through the reminder of the weekend into week 2, most guidance shows a decrease in ridge strength with a possible pattern shift toward western US troughing. Confidence in the result of this transition period remains very low as multiple model solutions are present. Some guidance shows an increase in showers and thunderstorm potential with increasing mid-level moisture, while others show a more substantial increase in hot, dry and windy conditions post ridging. Regardless of the outcome, an increase in fire-weather potential is very likely over parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, owing to the antecedent hot and dry period followed by ridge break down. ...CA... Beneath the upper ridge, extreme heat is expected over much of CA and the West Coast this week and into the weekend. While background winds should remain light, a low-level thermal trough may locally enhance dry and windy conditions across the northern and central parts of the state. A period of somewhat stronger northerly Sundowner winds may also develop D5/Thur into D6/Friday over southwest CA behind the weak trough passing to the east. While uncertain, locally higher fire-weather concerns could develop. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Mid-level ridging is forecast to amplify significantly over the Pacific Coast through the extended forecast period. As the ridge builds, stronger flow aloft will be shunted to the northeast over parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies through much of next week. While several perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the ridge, much of the Southwest will see extreme heat and dry conditions persist. Fire-weather concerns should increase through the period, especially as the upper ridge breaks down next weekend. ...Great Basin and Southwest... With ridge building through the first part of the extended period, very warm and dry surface conditions are likely to develop across parts of the Southwest. However, much of the stronger flow will remain displaced to the northeast, keeping surface winds modest through the first part of the work week. A slight increase in wind speeds is possible D4/Wed behind a dry cold front over parts of the northern Great Basin. 15-20 mph gusts and afternoon humidity of 10-20% could support several hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels. Flow aloft should weaken again toward the end of the week as the ridge temporarily strengthens. However, heading into the weekend, another weak trough should pass east of the ridge, potentially increasing dry and windy conditions over the Southwest. Through the reminder of the weekend into week 2, most guidance shows a decrease in ridge strength with a possible pattern shift toward western US troughing. Confidence in the result of this transition period remains very low as multiple model solutions are present. Some guidance shows an increase in showers and thunderstorm potential with increasing mid-level moisture, while others show a more substantial increase in hot, dry and windy conditions post ridging. Regardless of the outcome, an increase in fire-weather potential is very likely over parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, owing to the antecedent hot and dry period followed by ridge break down. ...CA... Beneath the upper ridge, extreme heat is expected over much of CA and the West Coast this week and into the weekend. While background winds should remain light, a low-level thermal trough may locally enhance dry and windy conditions across the northern and central parts of the state. A period of somewhat stronger northerly Sundowner winds may also develop D5/Thur into D6/Friday over southwest CA behind the weak trough passing to the east. While uncertain, locally higher fire-weather concerns could develop. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Mid-level ridging is forecast to amplify significantly over the Pacific Coast through the extended forecast period. As the ridge builds, stronger flow aloft will be shunted to the northeast over parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies through much of next week. While several perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the ridge, much of the Southwest will see extreme heat and dry conditions persist. Fire-weather concerns should increase through the period, especially as the upper ridge breaks down next weekend. ...Great Basin and Southwest... With ridge building through the first part of the extended period, very warm and dry surface conditions are likely to develop across parts of the Southwest. However, much of the stronger flow will remain displaced to the northeast, keeping surface winds modest through the first part of the work week. A slight increase in wind speeds is possible D4/Wed behind a dry cold front over parts of the northern Great Basin. 15-20 mph gusts and afternoon humidity of 10-20% could support several hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels. Flow aloft should weaken again toward the end of the week as the ridge temporarily strengthens. However, heading into the weekend, another weak trough should pass east of the ridge, potentially increasing dry and windy conditions over the Southwest. Through the reminder of the weekend into week 2, most guidance shows a decrease in ridge strength with a possible pattern shift toward western US troughing. Confidence in the result of this transition period remains very low as multiple model solutions are present. Some guidance shows an increase in showers and thunderstorm potential with increasing mid-level moisture, while others show a more substantial increase in hot, dry and windy conditions post ridging. Regardless of the outcome, an increase in fire-weather potential is very likely over parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, owing to the antecedent hot and dry period followed by ridge break down. ...CA... Beneath the upper ridge, extreme heat is expected over much of CA and the West Coast this week and into the weekend. While background winds should remain light, a low-level thermal trough may locally enhance dry and windy conditions across the northern and central parts of the state. A period of somewhat stronger northerly Sundowner winds may also develop D5/Thur into D6/Friday over southwest CA behind the weak trough passing to the east. While uncertain, locally higher fire-weather concerns could develop. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Mid-level ridging is forecast to amplify significantly over the Pacific Coast through the extended forecast period. As the ridge builds, stronger flow aloft will be shunted to the northeast over parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies through much of next week. While several perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the ridge, much of the Southwest will see extreme heat and dry conditions persist. Fire-weather concerns should increase through the period, especially as the upper ridge breaks down next weekend. ...Great Basin and Southwest... With ridge building through the first part of the extended period, very warm and dry surface conditions are likely to develop across parts of the Southwest. However, much of the stronger flow will remain displaced to the northeast, keeping surface winds modest through the first part of the work week. A slight increase in wind speeds is possible D4/Wed behind a dry cold front over parts of the northern Great Basin. 15-20 mph gusts and afternoon humidity of 10-20% could support several hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels. Flow aloft should weaken again toward the end of the week as the ridge temporarily strengthens. However, heading into the weekend, another weak trough should pass east of the ridge, potentially increasing dry and windy conditions over the Southwest. Through the reminder of the weekend into week 2, most guidance shows a decrease in ridge strength with a possible pattern shift toward western US troughing. Confidence in the result of this transition period remains very low as multiple model solutions are present. Some guidance shows an increase in showers and thunderstorm potential with increasing mid-level moisture, while others show a more substantial increase in hot, dry and windy conditions post ridging. Regardless of the outcome, an increase in fire-weather potential is very likely over parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, owing to the antecedent hot and dry period followed by ridge break down. ...CA... Beneath the upper ridge, extreme heat is expected over much of CA and the West Coast this week and into the weekend. While background winds should remain light, a low-level thermal trough may locally enhance dry and windy conditions across the northern and central parts of the state. A period of somewhat stronger northerly Sundowner winds may also develop D5/Thur into D6/Friday over southwest CA behind the weak trough passing to the east. While uncertain, locally higher fire-weather concerns could develop. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Mid-level ridging is forecast to amplify significantly over the Pacific Coast through the extended forecast period. As the ridge builds, stronger flow aloft will be shunted to the northeast over parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies through much of next week. While several perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the ridge, much of the Southwest will see extreme heat and dry conditions persist. Fire-weather concerns should increase through the period, especially as the upper ridge breaks down next weekend. ...Great Basin and Southwest... With ridge building through the first part of the extended period, very warm and dry surface conditions are likely to develop across parts of the Southwest. However, much of the stronger flow will remain displaced to the northeast, keeping surface winds modest through the first part of the work week. A slight increase in wind speeds is possible D4/Wed behind a dry cold front over parts of the northern Great Basin. 15-20 mph gusts and afternoon humidity of 10-20% could support several hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels. Flow aloft should weaken again toward the end of the week as the ridge temporarily strengthens. However, heading into the weekend, another weak trough should pass east of the ridge, potentially increasing dry and windy conditions over the Southwest. Through the reminder of the weekend into week 2, most guidance shows a decrease in ridge strength with a possible pattern shift toward western US troughing. Confidence in the result of this transition period remains very low as multiple model solutions are present. Some guidance shows an increase in showers and thunderstorm potential with increasing mid-level moisture, while others show a more substantial increase in hot, dry and windy conditions post ridging. Regardless of the outcome, an increase in fire-weather potential is very likely over parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, owing to the antecedent hot and dry period followed by ridge break down. ...CA... Beneath the upper ridge, extreme heat is expected over much of CA and the West Coast this week and into the weekend. While background winds should remain light, a low-level thermal trough may locally enhance dry and windy conditions across the northern and central parts of the state. A period of somewhat stronger northerly Sundowner winds may also develop D5/Thur into D6/Friday over southwest CA behind the weak trough passing to the east. While uncertain, locally higher fire-weather concerns could develop. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Mid-level ridging is forecast to amplify significantly over the Pacific Coast through the extended forecast period. As the ridge builds, stronger flow aloft will be shunted to the northeast over parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies through much of next week. While several perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the ridge, much of the Southwest will see extreme heat and dry conditions persist. Fire-weather concerns should increase through the period, especially as the upper ridge breaks down next weekend. ...Great Basin and Southwest... With ridge building through the first part of the extended period, very warm and dry surface conditions are likely to develop across parts of the Southwest. However, much of the stronger flow will remain displaced to the northeast, keeping surface winds modest through the first part of the work week. A slight increase in wind speeds is possible D4/Wed behind a dry cold front over parts of the northern Great Basin. 15-20 mph gusts and afternoon humidity of 10-20% could support several hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels. Flow aloft should weaken again toward the end of the week as the ridge temporarily strengthens. However, heading into the weekend, another weak trough should pass east of the ridge, potentially increasing dry and windy conditions over the Southwest. Through the reminder of the weekend into week 2, most guidance shows a decrease in ridge strength with a possible pattern shift toward western US troughing. Confidence in the result of this transition period remains very low as multiple model solutions are present. Some guidance shows an increase in showers and thunderstorm potential with increasing mid-level moisture, while others show a more substantial increase in hot, dry and windy conditions post ridging. Regardless of the outcome, an increase in fire-weather potential is very likely over parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, owing to the antecedent hot and dry period followed by ridge break down. ...CA... Beneath the upper ridge, extreme heat is expected over much of CA and the West Coast this week and into the weekend. While background winds should remain light, a low-level thermal trough may locally enhance dry and windy conditions across the northern and central parts of the state. A period of somewhat stronger northerly Sundowner winds may also develop D5/Thur into D6/Friday over southwest CA behind the weak trough passing to the east. While uncertain, locally higher fire-weather concerns could develop. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Mid-level ridging is forecast to amplify significantly over the Pacific Coast through the extended forecast period. As the ridge builds, stronger flow aloft will be shunted to the northeast over parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies through much of next week. While several perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the ridge, much of the Southwest will see extreme heat and dry conditions persist. Fire-weather concerns should increase through the period, especially as the upper ridge breaks down next weekend. ...Great Basin and Southwest... With ridge building through the first part of the extended period, very warm and dry surface conditions are likely to develop across parts of the Southwest. However, much of the stronger flow will remain displaced to the northeast, keeping surface winds modest through the first part of the work week. A slight increase in wind speeds is possible D4/Wed behind a dry cold front over parts of the northern Great Basin. 15-20 mph gusts and afternoon humidity of 10-20% could support several hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels. Flow aloft should weaken again toward the end of the week as the ridge temporarily strengthens. However, heading into the weekend, another weak trough should pass east of the ridge, potentially increasing dry and windy conditions over the Southwest. Through the reminder of the weekend into week 2, most guidance shows a decrease in ridge strength with a possible pattern shift toward western US troughing. Confidence in the result of this transition period remains very low as multiple model solutions are present. Some guidance shows an increase in showers and thunderstorm potential with increasing mid-level moisture, while others show a more substantial increase in hot, dry and windy conditions post ridging. Regardless of the outcome, an increase in fire-weather potential is very likely over parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, owing to the antecedent hot and dry period followed by ridge break down. ...CA... Beneath the upper ridge, extreme heat is expected over much of CA and the West Coast this week and into the weekend. While background winds should remain light, a low-level thermal trough may locally enhance dry and windy conditions across the northern and central parts of the state. A period of somewhat stronger northerly Sundowner winds may also develop D5/Thur into D6/Friday over southwest CA behind the weak trough passing to the east. While uncertain, locally higher fire-weather concerns could develop. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Mid-level ridging is forecast to amplify significantly over the Pacific Coast through the extended forecast period. As the ridge builds, stronger flow aloft will be shunted to the northeast over parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies through much of next week. While several perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the ridge, much of the Southwest will see extreme heat and dry conditions persist. Fire-weather concerns should increase through the period, especially as the upper ridge breaks down next weekend. ...Great Basin and Southwest... With ridge building through the first part of the extended period, very warm and dry surface conditions are likely to develop across parts of the Southwest. However, much of the stronger flow will remain displaced to the northeast, keeping surface winds modest through the first part of the work week. A slight increase in wind speeds is possible D4/Wed behind a dry cold front over parts of the northern Great Basin. 15-20 mph gusts and afternoon humidity of 10-20% could support several hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels. Flow aloft should weaken again toward the end of the week as the ridge temporarily strengthens. However, heading into the weekend, another weak trough should pass east of the ridge, potentially increasing dry and windy conditions over the Southwest. Through the reminder of the weekend into week 2, most guidance shows a decrease in ridge strength with a possible pattern shift toward western US troughing. Confidence in the result of this transition period remains very low as multiple model solutions are present. Some guidance shows an increase in showers and thunderstorm potential with increasing mid-level moisture, while others show a more substantial increase in hot, dry and windy conditions post ridging. Regardless of the outcome, an increase in fire-weather potential is very likely over parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, owing to the antecedent hot and dry period followed by ridge break down. ...CA... Beneath the upper ridge, extreme heat is expected over much of CA and the West Coast this week and into the weekend. While background winds should remain light, a low-level thermal trough may locally enhance dry and windy conditions across the northern and central parts of the state. A period of somewhat stronger northerly Sundowner winds may also develop D5/Thur into D6/Friday over southwest CA behind the weak trough passing to the east. While uncertain, locally higher fire-weather concerns could develop. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Mid-level ridging is forecast to amplify significantly over the Pacific Coast through the extended forecast period. As the ridge builds, stronger flow aloft will be shunted to the northeast over parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies through much of next week. While several perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the ridge, much of the Southwest will see extreme heat and dry conditions persist. Fire-weather concerns should increase through the period, especially as the upper ridge breaks down next weekend. ...Great Basin and Southwest... With ridge building through the first part of the extended period, very warm and dry surface conditions are likely to develop across parts of the Southwest. However, much of the stronger flow will remain displaced to the northeast, keeping surface winds modest through the first part of the work week. A slight increase in wind speeds is possible D4/Wed behind a dry cold front over parts of the northern Great Basin. 15-20 mph gusts and afternoon humidity of 10-20% could support several hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels. Flow aloft should weaken again toward the end of the week as the ridge temporarily strengthens. However, heading into the weekend, another weak trough should pass east of the ridge, potentially increasing dry and windy conditions over the Southwest. Through the reminder of the weekend into week 2, most guidance shows a decrease in ridge strength with a possible pattern shift toward western US troughing. Confidence in the result of this transition period remains very low as multiple model solutions are present. Some guidance shows an increase in showers and thunderstorm potential with increasing mid-level moisture, while others show a more substantial increase in hot, dry and windy conditions post ridging. Regardless of the outcome, an increase in fire-weather potential is very likely over parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, owing to the antecedent hot and dry period followed by ridge break down. ...CA... Beneath the upper ridge, extreme heat is expected over much of CA and the West Coast this week and into the weekend. While background winds should remain light, a low-level thermal trough may locally enhance dry and windy conditions across the northern and central parts of the state. A period of somewhat stronger northerly Sundowner winds may also develop D5/Thur into D6/Friday over southwest CA behind the weak trough passing to the east. While uncertain, locally higher fire-weather concerns could develop. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Mid-level ridging is forecast to amplify significantly over the Pacific Coast through the extended forecast period. As the ridge builds, stronger flow aloft will be shunted to the northeast over parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies through much of next week. While several perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the ridge, much of the Southwest will see extreme heat and dry conditions persist. Fire-weather concerns should increase through the period, especially as the upper ridge breaks down next weekend. ...Great Basin and Southwest... With ridge building through the first part of the extended period, very warm and dry surface conditions are likely to develop across parts of the Southwest. However, much of the stronger flow will remain displaced to the northeast, keeping surface winds modest through the first part of the work week. A slight increase in wind speeds is possible D4/Wed behind a dry cold front over parts of the northern Great Basin. 15-20 mph gusts and afternoon humidity of 10-20% could support several hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels. Flow aloft should weaken again toward the end of the week as the ridge temporarily strengthens. However, heading into the weekend, another weak trough should pass east of the ridge, potentially increasing dry and windy conditions over the Southwest. Through the reminder of the weekend into week 2, most guidance shows a decrease in ridge strength with a possible pattern shift toward western US troughing. Confidence in the result of this transition period remains very low as multiple model solutions are present. Some guidance shows an increase in showers and thunderstorm potential with increasing mid-level moisture, while others show a more substantial increase in hot, dry and windy conditions post ridging. Regardless of the outcome, an increase in fire-weather potential is very likely over parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, owing to the antecedent hot and dry period followed by ridge break down. ...CA... Beneath the upper ridge, extreme heat is expected over much of CA and the West Coast this week and into the weekend. While background winds should remain light, a low-level thermal trough may locally enhance dry and windy conditions across the northern and central parts of the state. A period of somewhat stronger northerly Sundowner winds may also develop D5/Thur into D6/Friday over southwest CA behind the weak trough passing to the east. While uncertain, locally higher fire-weather concerns could develop. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Mid-level ridging is forecast to amplify significantly over the Pacific Coast through the extended forecast period. As the ridge builds, stronger flow aloft will be shunted to the northeast over parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies through much of next week. While several perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the ridge, much of the Southwest will see extreme heat and dry conditions persist. Fire-weather concerns should increase through the period, especially as the upper ridge breaks down next weekend. ...Great Basin and Southwest... With ridge building through the first part of the extended period, very warm and dry surface conditions are likely to develop across parts of the Southwest. However, much of the stronger flow will remain displaced to the northeast, keeping surface winds modest through the first part of the work week. A slight increase in wind speeds is possible D4/Wed behind a dry cold front over parts of the northern Great Basin. 15-20 mph gusts and afternoon humidity of 10-20% could support several hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels. Flow aloft should weaken again toward the end of the week as the ridge temporarily strengthens. However, heading into the weekend, another weak trough should pass east of the ridge, potentially increasing dry and windy conditions over the Southwest. Through the reminder of the weekend into week 2, most guidance shows a decrease in ridge strength with a possible pattern shift toward western US troughing. Confidence in the result of this transition period remains very low as multiple model solutions are present. Some guidance shows an increase in showers and thunderstorm potential with increasing mid-level moisture, while others show a more substantial increase in hot, dry and windy conditions post ridging. Regardless of the outcome, an increase in fire-weather potential is very likely over parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, owing to the antecedent hot and dry period followed by ridge break down. ...CA... Beneath the upper ridge, extreme heat is expected over much of CA and the West Coast this week and into the weekend. While background winds should remain light, a low-level thermal trough may locally enhance dry and windy conditions across the northern and central parts of the state. A period of somewhat stronger northerly Sundowner winds may also develop D5/Thur into D6/Friday over southwest CA behind the weak trough passing to the east. While uncertain, locally higher fire-weather concerns could develop. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0490 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 490 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW EEN TO 10 ESE AUG TO 50 S HUL. ..WEINMAN..06/30/24 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 490 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC001-005-009-013-015-023-027-029-031-302240- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDROSCOGGIN CUMBERLAND HANCOCK KNOX LINCOLN SAGADAHOC WALDO WASHINGTON YORK NHC001-005-011-013-015-017-019-302240- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CHESHIRE HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD SULLIVAN ANZ050-051-052-150-151-152-153-154-302240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more