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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Wednesday... At least some severe-weather potential will likely exist across parts of the Midwest and south-central Plains within the moist/unstable environment ahead of the advancing cold front and reinforcing outflows. This severe potential could include a corridor from Ohio/Indiana/Illinois southwestward across the Ozarks into Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear atop the warm sector will likely be weaker as compared to prior days. Additional severe storms may occur near/north of the synoptic front across the north-central High Plains. Risk-magnitude uncertainties still preclude 15+ percent severe-weather probability delineations for these scenarios. ...Day 5/Thursday Midwest including Iowa/Missouri... Guidance is in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough, and strong jet in its base, will overspread the north-central Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest on Thursday. Ahead of this mid/upper-level trough, very favorable ingredients, including ample instability and rather strong deep-layer shear for the season, may set up across the southern half of Iowa, northern half of Missouri, and possibly nearby parts of southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas and western Illinois. However, the potential impacts of convection Wednesday night remain a key uncertainty regionally, and will thus defer to future outlooks for an introduction of 15+ percent severe probabilities. ...Days 6-8 Friday-Sunday... Predictability diminishes into this time frame, although corridors of at least some severe storms can be expected daily, generally spanning the northern/central Plains to the Ohio Valley and potentially parts of the East. For instance, on Day 6/Friday, related to the east-northeastward progression of the upper trough, an area of interest includes parts of the Ohio Valley toward the Lake Erie vicinity. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Wednesday... At least some severe-weather potential will likely exist across parts of the Midwest and south-central Plains within the moist/unstable environment ahead of the advancing cold front and reinforcing outflows. This severe potential could include a corridor from Ohio/Indiana/Illinois southwestward across the Ozarks into Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear atop the warm sector will likely be weaker as compared to prior days. Additional severe storms may occur near/north of the synoptic front across the north-central High Plains. Risk-magnitude uncertainties still preclude 15+ percent severe-weather probability delineations for these scenarios. ...Day 5/Thursday Midwest including Iowa/Missouri... Guidance is in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough, and strong jet in its base, will overspread the north-central Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest on Thursday. Ahead of this mid/upper-level trough, very favorable ingredients, including ample instability and rather strong deep-layer shear for the season, may set up across the southern half of Iowa, northern half of Missouri, and possibly nearby parts of southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas and western Illinois. However, the potential impacts of convection Wednesday night remain a key uncertainty regionally, and will thus defer to future outlooks for an introduction of 15+ percent severe probabilities. ...Days 6-8 Friday-Sunday... Predictability diminishes into this time frame, although corridors of at least some severe storms can be expected daily, generally spanning the northern/central Plains to the Ohio Valley and potentially parts of the East. For instance, on Day 6/Friday, related to the east-northeastward progression of the upper trough, an area of interest includes parts of the Ohio Valley toward the Lake Erie vicinity. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Wednesday... At least some severe-weather potential will likely exist across parts of the Midwest and south-central Plains within the moist/unstable environment ahead of the advancing cold front and reinforcing outflows. This severe potential could include a corridor from Ohio/Indiana/Illinois southwestward across the Ozarks into Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear atop the warm sector will likely be weaker as compared to prior days. Additional severe storms may occur near/north of the synoptic front across the north-central High Plains. Risk-magnitude uncertainties still preclude 15+ percent severe-weather probability delineations for these scenarios. ...Day 5/Thursday Midwest including Iowa/Missouri... Guidance is in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough, and strong jet in its base, will overspread the north-central Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest on Thursday. Ahead of this mid/upper-level trough, very favorable ingredients, including ample instability and rather strong deep-layer shear for the season, may set up across the southern half of Iowa, northern half of Missouri, and possibly nearby parts of southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas and western Illinois. However, the potential impacts of convection Wednesday night remain a key uncertainty regionally, and will thus defer to future outlooks for an introduction of 15+ percent severe probabilities. ...Days 6-8 Friday-Sunday... Predictability diminishes into this time frame, although corridors of at least some severe storms can be expected daily, generally spanning the northern/central Plains to the Ohio Valley and potentially parts of the East. For instance, on Day 6/Friday, related to the east-northeastward progression of the upper trough, an area of interest includes parts of the Ohio Valley toward the Lake Erie vicinity. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Wednesday... At least some severe-weather potential will likely exist across parts of the Midwest and south-central Plains within the moist/unstable environment ahead of the advancing cold front and reinforcing outflows. This severe potential could include a corridor from Ohio/Indiana/Illinois southwestward across the Ozarks into Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear atop the warm sector will likely be weaker as compared to prior days. Additional severe storms may occur near/north of the synoptic front across the north-central High Plains. Risk-magnitude uncertainties still preclude 15+ percent severe-weather probability delineations for these scenarios. ...Day 5/Thursday Midwest including Iowa/Missouri... Guidance is in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough, and strong jet in its base, will overspread the north-central Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest on Thursday. Ahead of this mid/upper-level trough, very favorable ingredients, including ample instability and rather strong deep-layer shear for the season, may set up across the southern half of Iowa, northern half of Missouri, and possibly nearby parts of southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas and western Illinois. However, the potential impacts of convection Wednesday night remain a key uncertainty regionally, and will thus defer to future outlooks for an introduction of 15+ percent severe probabilities. ...Days 6-8 Friday-Sunday... Predictability diminishes into this time frame, although corridors of at least some severe storms can be expected daily, generally spanning the northern/central Plains to the Ohio Valley and potentially parts of the East. For instance, on Day 6/Friday, related to the east-northeastward progression of the upper trough, an area of interest includes parts of the Ohio Valley toward the Lake Erie vicinity. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Wednesday... At least some severe-weather potential will likely exist across parts of the Midwest and south-central Plains within the moist/unstable environment ahead of the advancing cold front and reinforcing outflows. This severe potential could include a corridor from Ohio/Indiana/Illinois southwestward across the Ozarks into Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear atop the warm sector will likely be weaker as compared to prior days. Additional severe storms may occur near/north of the synoptic front across the north-central High Plains. Risk-magnitude uncertainties still preclude 15+ percent severe-weather probability delineations for these scenarios. ...Day 5/Thursday Midwest including Iowa/Missouri... Guidance is in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough, and strong jet in its base, will overspread the north-central Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest on Thursday. Ahead of this mid/upper-level trough, very favorable ingredients, including ample instability and rather strong deep-layer shear for the season, may set up across the southern half of Iowa, northern half of Missouri, and possibly nearby parts of southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas and western Illinois. However, the potential impacts of convection Wednesday night remain a key uncertainty regionally, and will thus defer to future outlooks for an introduction of 15+ percent severe probabilities. ...Days 6-8 Friday-Sunday... Predictability diminishes into this time frame, although corridors of at least some severe storms can be expected daily, generally spanning the northern/central Plains to the Ohio Valley and potentially parts of the East. For instance, on Day 6/Friday, related to the east-northeastward progression of the upper trough, an area of interest includes parts of the Ohio Valley toward the Lake Erie vicinity. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Wednesday... At least some severe-weather potential will likely exist across parts of the Midwest and south-central Plains within the moist/unstable environment ahead of the advancing cold front and reinforcing outflows. This severe potential could include a corridor from Ohio/Indiana/Illinois southwestward across the Ozarks into Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear atop the warm sector will likely be weaker as compared to prior days. Additional severe storms may occur near/north of the synoptic front across the north-central High Plains. Risk-magnitude uncertainties still preclude 15+ percent severe-weather probability delineations for these scenarios. ...Day 5/Thursday Midwest including Iowa/Missouri... Guidance is in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough, and strong jet in its base, will overspread the north-central Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest on Thursday. Ahead of this mid/upper-level trough, very favorable ingredients, including ample instability and rather strong deep-layer shear for the season, may set up across the southern half of Iowa, northern half of Missouri, and possibly nearby parts of southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas and western Illinois. However, the potential impacts of convection Wednesday night remain a key uncertainty regionally, and will thus defer to future outlooks for an introduction of 15+ percent severe probabilities. ...Days 6-8 Friday-Sunday... Predictability diminishes into this time frame, although corridors of at least some severe storms can be expected daily, generally spanning the northern/central Plains to the Ohio Valley and potentially parts of the East. For instance, on Day 6/Friday, related to the east-northeastward progression of the upper trough, an area of interest includes parts of the Ohio Valley toward the Lake Erie vicinity. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Wednesday... At least some severe-weather potential will likely exist across parts of the Midwest and south-central Plains within the moist/unstable environment ahead of the advancing cold front and reinforcing outflows. This severe potential could include a corridor from Ohio/Indiana/Illinois southwestward across the Ozarks into Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear atop the warm sector will likely be weaker as compared to prior days. Additional severe storms may occur near/north of the synoptic front across the north-central High Plains. Risk-magnitude uncertainties still preclude 15+ percent severe-weather probability delineations for these scenarios. ...Day 5/Thursday Midwest including Iowa/Missouri... Guidance is in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough, and strong jet in its base, will overspread the north-central Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest on Thursday. Ahead of this mid/upper-level trough, very favorable ingredients, including ample instability and rather strong deep-layer shear for the season, may set up across the southern half of Iowa, northern half of Missouri, and possibly nearby parts of southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas and western Illinois. However, the potential impacts of convection Wednesday night remain a key uncertainty regionally, and will thus defer to future outlooks for an introduction of 15+ percent severe probabilities. ...Days 6-8 Friday-Sunday... Predictability diminishes into this time frame, although corridors of at least some severe storms can be expected daily, generally spanning the northern/central Plains to the Ohio Valley and potentially parts of the East. For instance, on Day 6/Friday, related to the east-northeastward progression of the upper trough, an area of interest includes parts of the Ohio Valley toward the Lake Erie vicinity. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Wednesday... At least some severe-weather potential will likely exist across parts of the Midwest and south-central Plains within the moist/unstable environment ahead of the advancing cold front and reinforcing outflows. This severe potential could include a corridor from Ohio/Indiana/Illinois southwestward across the Ozarks into Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear atop the warm sector will likely be weaker as compared to prior days. Additional severe storms may occur near/north of the synoptic front across the north-central High Plains. Risk-magnitude uncertainties still preclude 15+ percent severe-weather probability delineations for these scenarios. ...Day 5/Thursday Midwest including Iowa/Missouri... Guidance is in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough, and strong jet in its base, will overspread the north-central Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest on Thursday. Ahead of this mid/upper-level trough, very favorable ingredients, including ample instability and rather strong deep-layer shear for the season, may set up across the southern half of Iowa, northern half of Missouri, and possibly nearby parts of southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas and western Illinois. However, the potential impacts of convection Wednesday night remain a key uncertainty regionally, and will thus defer to future outlooks for an introduction of 15+ percent severe probabilities. ...Days 6-8 Friday-Sunday... Predictability diminishes into this time frame, although corridors of at least some severe storms can be expected daily, generally spanning the northern/central Plains to the Ohio Valley and potentially parts of the East. For instance, on Day 6/Friday, related to the east-northeastward progression of the upper trough, an area of interest includes parts of the Ohio Valley toward the Lake Erie vicinity. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley to central Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Corn Belt/Upper Midwest and Central Plains... On Tuesday, further amplification will occur with the eastward-shifting mid/upper-level trough over the northern Plains, with preceding height falls and a strengthening of west-southwesterly winds aloft over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning across Iowa and nearby parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. These storms and related outflow/cloud debris will probably delineate the north-northeastward extent of the most-favorable surface-based storm environment later in the day. The strongest destabilization into Tuesday afternoon is currently expected across Iowa and far southeast Nebraska/northern Missouri, with moderate destabilization also expected southwestward near the surface trough and along/just behind the southeastward-moving cold front across Kansas. Seasonally strong winds would likely support potentially intense and sustained storms including supercells capable of all hazards, especially across parts of Iowa and nearby far southeast Nebraska and far northern Missouri, where somewhat higher severe probabilities may be warranted in future outlooks. Storms are likely to quickly grow upscale in the evening with continued severe potential as storms progress east-southeastward across the region. A few strong to locally severe high-based storms may occur as far southwest as the south-central High Plains, either within a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer and/or in the post-frontal environment across east-central/southeast Colorado and western Kansas. ...Southeast/Gulf Coast... Some strong to locally severe storms could regionally occur within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the weakening southward-moving front. However, organized/sustained severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be limited by the influence of the upper ridge and weak deep-layer shear. ..Guyer.. 06/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley to central Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Corn Belt/Upper Midwest and Central Plains... On Tuesday, further amplification will occur with the eastward-shifting mid/upper-level trough over the northern Plains, with preceding height falls and a strengthening of west-southwesterly winds aloft over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning across Iowa and nearby parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. These storms and related outflow/cloud debris will probably delineate the north-northeastward extent of the most-favorable surface-based storm environment later in the day. The strongest destabilization into Tuesday afternoon is currently expected across Iowa and far southeast Nebraska/northern Missouri, with moderate destabilization also expected southwestward near the surface trough and along/just behind the southeastward-moving cold front across Kansas. Seasonally strong winds would likely support potentially intense and sustained storms including supercells capable of all hazards, especially across parts of Iowa and nearby far southeast Nebraska and far northern Missouri, where somewhat higher severe probabilities may be warranted in future outlooks. Storms are likely to quickly grow upscale in the evening with continued severe potential as storms progress east-southeastward across the region. A few strong to locally severe high-based storms may occur as far southwest as the south-central High Plains, either within a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer and/or in the post-frontal environment across east-central/southeast Colorado and western Kansas. ...Southeast/Gulf Coast... Some strong to locally severe storms could regionally occur within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the weakening southward-moving front. However, organized/sustained severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be limited by the influence of the upper ridge and weak deep-layer shear. ..Guyer.. 06/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley to central Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Corn Belt/Upper Midwest and Central Plains... On Tuesday, further amplification will occur with the eastward-shifting mid/upper-level trough over the northern Plains, with preceding height falls and a strengthening of west-southwesterly winds aloft over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning across Iowa and nearby parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. These storms and related outflow/cloud debris will probably delineate the north-northeastward extent of the most-favorable surface-based storm environment later in the day. The strongest destabilization into Tuesday afternoon is currently expected across Iowa and far southeast Nebraska/northern Missouri, with moderate destabilization also expected southwestward near the surface trough and along/just behind the southeastward-moving cold front across Kansas. Seasonally strong winds would likely support potentially intense and sustained storms including supercells capable of all hazards, especially across parts of Iowa and nearby far southeast Nebraska and far northern Missouri, where somewhat higher severe probabilities may be warranted in future outlooks. Storms are likely to quickly grow upscale in the evening with continued severe potential as storms progress east-southeastward across the region. A few strong to locally severe high-based storms may occur as far southwest as the south-central High Plains, either within a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer and/or in the post-frontal environment across east-central/southeast Colorado and western Kansas. ...Southeast/Gulf Coast... Some strong to locally severe storms could regionally occur within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the weakening southward-moving front. However, organized/sustained severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be limited by the influence of the upper ridge and weak deep-layer shear. ..Guyer.. 06/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley to central Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Corn Belt/Upper Midwest and Central Plains... On Tuesday, further amplification will occur with the eastward-shifting mid/upper-level trough over the northern Plains, with preceding height falls and a strengthening of west-southwesterly winds aloft over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning across Iowa and nearby parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. These storms and related outflow/cloud debris will probably delineate the north-northeastward extent of the most-favorable surface-based storm environment later in the day. The strongest destabilization into Tuesday afternoon is currently expected across Iowa and far southeast Nebraska/northern Missouri, with moderate destabilization also expected southwestward near the surface trough and along/just behind the southeastward-moving cold front across Kansas. Seasonally strong winds would likely support potentially intense and sustained storms including supercells capable of all hazards, especially across parts of Iowa and nearby far southeast Nebraska and far northern Missouri, where somewhat higher severe probabilities may be warranted in future outlooks. Storms are likely to quickly grow upscale in the evening with continued severe potential as storms progress east-southeastward across the region. A few strong to locally severe high-based storms may occur as far southwest as the south-central High Plains, either within a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer and/or in the post-frontal environment across east-central/southeast Colorado and western Kansas. ...Southeast/Gulf Coast... Some strong to locally severe storms could regionally occur within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the weakening southward-moving front. However, organized/sustained severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be limited by the influence of the upper ridge and weak deep-layer shear. ..Guyer.. 06/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley to central Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Corn Belt/Upper Midwest and Central Plains... On Tuesday, further amplification will occur with the eastward-shifting mid/upper-level trough over the northern Plains, with preceding height falls and a strengthening of west-southwesterly winds aloft over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning across Iowa and nearby parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. These storms and related outflow/cloud debris will probably delineate the north-northeastward extent of the most-favorable surface-based storm environment later in the day. The strongest destabilization into Tuesday afternoon is currently expected across Iowa and far southeast Nebraska/northern Missouri, with moderate destabilization also expected southwestward near the surface trough and along/just behind the southeastward-moving cold front across Kansas. Seasonally strong winds would likely support potentially intense and sustained storms including supercells capable of all hazards, especially across parts of Iowa and nearby far southeast Nebraska and far northern Missouri, where somewhat higher severe probabilities may be warranted in future outlooks. Storms are likely to quickly grow upscale in the evening with continued severe potential as storms progress east-southeastward across the region. A few strong to locally severe high-based storms may occur as far southwest as the south-central High Plains, either within a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer and/or in the post-frontal environment across east-central/southeast Colorado and western Kansas. ...Southeast/Gulf Coast... Some strong to locally severe storms could regionally occur within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the weakening southward-moving front. However, organized/sustained severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be limited by the influence of the upper ridge and weak deep-layer shear. ..Guyer.. 06/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley to central Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Corn Belt/Upper Midwest and Central Plains... On Tuesday, further amplification will occur with the eastward-shifting mid/upper-level trough over the northern Plains, with preceding height falls and a strengthening of west-southwesterly winds aloft over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning across Iowa and nearby parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. These storms and related outflow/cloud debris will probably delineate the north-northeastward extent of the most-favorable surface-based storm environment later in the day. The strongest destabilization into Tuesday afternoon is currently expected across Iowa and far southeast Nebraska/northern Missouri, with moderate destabilization also expected southwestward near the surface trough and along/just behind the southeastward-moving cold front across Kansas. Seasonally strong winds would likely support potentially intense and sustained storms including supercells capable of all hazards, especially across parts of Iowa and nearby far southeast Nebraska and far northern Missouri, where somewhat higher severe probabilities may be warranted in future outlooks. Storms are likely to quickly grow upscale in the evening with continued severe potential as storms progress east-southeastward across the region. A few strong to locally severe high-based storms may occur as far southwest as the south-central High Plains, either within a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer and/or in the post-frontal environment across east-central/southeast Colorado and western Kansas. ...Southeast/Gulf Coast... Some strong to locally severe storms could regionally occur within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the weakening southward-moving front. However, organized/sustained severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be limited by the influence of the upper ridge and weak deep-layer shear. ..Guyer.. 06/30/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to progress eastward and impinge on the Rockies tomorrow (Monday) while upper ridging prevails across the central U.S. A mid-level jet streak will pivot around the trough and overspread the Great Basin region, supporting another day of dry and breezy conditions. By afternoon peak heating, much of the Great Basin will experience 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Dry conditions (i.e. RH as low as 10 percent in spots) are also expected across much of the California Central Valley region, where fuels are becoming increasingly receptive to wildfire spread. At the moment, the consensus among model guidance members suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, at least Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if guidance trends windier in California. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to progress eastward and impinge on the Rockies tomorrow (Monday) while upper ridging prevails across the central U.S. A mid-level jet streak will pivot around the trough and overspread the Great Basin region, supporting another day of dry and breezy conditions. By afternoon peak heating, much of the Great Basin will experience 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Dry conditions (i.e. RH as low as 10 percent in spots) are also expected across much of the California Central Valley region, where fuels are becoming increasingly receptive to wildfire spread. At the moment, the consensus among model guidance members suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, at least Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if guidance trends windier in California. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to progress eastward and impinge on the Rockies tomorrow (Monday) while upper ridging prevails across the central U.S. A mid-level jet streak will pivot around the trough and overspread the Great Basin region, supporting another day of dry and breezy conditions. By afternoon peak heating, much of the Great Basin will experience 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Dry conditions (i.e. RH as low as 10 percent in spots) are also expected across much of the California Central Valley region, where fuels are becoming increasingly receptive to wildfire spread. At the moment, the consensus among model guidance members suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, at least Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if guidance trends windier in California. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to progress eastward and impinge on the Rockies tomorrow (Monday) while upper ridging prevails across the central U.S. A mid-level jet streak will pivot around the trough and overspread the Great Basin region, supporting another day of dry and breezy conditions. By afternoon peak heating, much of the Great Basin will experience 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Dry conditions (i.e. RH as low as 10 percent in spots) are also expected across much of the California Central Valley region, where fuels are becoming increasingly receptive to wildfire spread. At the moment, the consensus among model guidance members suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, at least Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if guidance trends windier in California. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to progress eastward and impinge on the Rockies tomorrow (Monday) while upper ridging prevails across the central U.S. A mid-level jet streak will pivot around the trough and overspread the Great Basin region, supporting another day of dry and breezy conditions. By afternoon peak heating, much of the Great Basin will experience 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Dry conditions (i.e. RH as low as 10 percent in spots) are also expected across much of the California Central Valley region, where fuels are becoming increasingly receptive to wildfire spread. At the moment, the consensus among model guidance members suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, at least Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if guidance trends windier in California. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to progress eastward and impinge on the Rockies tomorrow (Monday) while upper ridging prevails across the central U.S. A mid-level jet streak will pivot around the trough and overspread the Great Basin region, supporting another day of dry and breezy conditions. By afternoon peak heating, much of the Great Basin will experience 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Dry conditions (i.e. RH as low as 10 percent in spots) are also expected across much of the California Central Valley region, where fuels are becoming increasingly receptive to wildfire spread. At the moment, the consensus among model guidance members suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. However, at least Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if guidance trends windier in California. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more