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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the Northwest will shift south and east on Friday. This feature is expected to lose amplitude as an upstream trough moves into the Northwest. As a result, surface high pressure in the Great Basin/Southwest should lose intensity rather quickly after the early morning hours. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient will have been in the process of gradually weakening for several hours prior to Friday morning. The weakening trend will continue, especially during the afternoon. Upper-level wind support will also quickly dissipate after the early morning as the trough pushes farther east and upper-level ridging increases in the region. RH will likely remain low through the day. 5-20% RH will be fairly widespread by the afternoon. Winds will generally reach 15-25 mph. Some locally higher speeds are possible within the terrain. Given the overall large-scale trends and high-resolution ensemble guidance, critical fire weather conditions are expected to occur locally and primarily tied to terrain features. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the Northwest will shift south and east on Friday. This feature is expected to lose amplitude as an upstream trough moves into the Northwest. As a result, surface high pressure in the Great Basin/Southwest should lose intensity rather quickly after the early morning hours. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient will have been in the process of gradually weakening for several hours prior to Friday morning. The weakening trend will continue, especially during the afternoon. Upper-level wind support will also quickly dissipate after the early morning as the trough pushes farther east and upper-level ridging increases in the region. RH will likely remain low through the day. 5-20% RH will be fairly widespread by the afternoon. Winds will generally reach 15-25 mph. Some locally higher speeds are possible within the terrain. Given the overall large-scale trends and high-resolution ensemble guidance, critical fire weather conditions are expected to occur locally and primarily tied to terrain features. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the Northwest will shift south and east on Friday. This feature is expected to lose amplitude as an upstream trough moves into the Northwest. As a result, surface high pressure in the Great Basin/Southwest should lose intensity rather quickly after the early morning hours. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient will have been in the process of gradually weakening for several hours prior to Friday morning. The weakening trend will continue, especially during the afternoon. Upper-level wind support will also quickly dissipate after the early morning as the trough pushes farther east and upper-level ridging increases in the region. RH will likely remain low through the day. 5-20% RH will be fairly widespread by the afternoon. Winds will generally reach 15-25 mph. Some locally higher speeds are possible within the terrain. Given the overall large-scale trends and high-resolution ensemble guidance, critical fire weather conditions are expected to occur locally and primarily tied to terrain features. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... An elongated western trough will undergo some amplification today as a mid-level jet dives southward on its western flank. An upper-level ridge will build into the Northwest and northern California in its wake. At the surface, high pressure will exist across much of the CONUS. The strongest high pressure will persist in the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Southern California... After a temporary weakening of the offshore gradient overnight Wednesday, some strengthening can be expected by early this morning. Guidance continues to suggest that the offshore gradient will maintain strength through the day today and into Friday morning. Winds will have an increasing westerly component with time as the high pressure system shifts southward. Upper-level support winds will begin the day modest, but as the mid-level jet moves southward through the Great Basin/Lower Colorado River Valley some increase in those winds is anticipated in southern California. Stronger gust potential will increase during the afternoon as a result. With the shifting of the high pressure system, some weakening of the strongest winds is expected from north to south overnight. However, with a more favorably oriented pressure gradient across the Peninsular Ranges, some potential for critical fire weather may linger into Friday morning. Even with fire weather conditions being modestly improved from the past two days, critical conditions are still expected to persist across areas with ongoing fires. Winds of 20-30 mph are expected with locally higher values in the terrain. Wind gusts of 40-60 mph will also be possible, particularly within the terrain. With poor overnight RH recovery expected Wednesday night, a larger spatial extent of single digit RH is possible, though 10-20% will be more common. Significant fire growth remains likely with ongoing or new fires. ...Central/South Florida... Down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida. RH of 25-35% is possible by the afternoon. With winds likely remaining light--mostly below 10 mph--only locally elevated conditions are expected. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... An elongated western trough will undergo some amplification today as a mid-level jet dives southward on its western flank. An upper-level ridge will build into the Northwest and northern California in its wake. At the surface, high pressure will exist across much of the CONUS. The strongest high pressure will persist in the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Southern California... After a temporary weakening of the offshore gradient overnight Wednesday, some strengthening can be expected by early this morning. Guidance continues to suggest that the offshore gradient will maintain strength through the day today and into Friday morning. Winds will have an increasing westerly component with time as the high pressure system shifts southward. Upper-level support winds will begin the day modest, but as the mid-level jet moves southward through the Great Basin/Lower Colorado River Valley some increase in those winds is anticipated in southern California. Stronger gust potential will increase during the afternoon as a result. With the shifting of the high pressure system, some weakening of the strongest winds is expected from north to south overnight. However, with a more favorably oriented pressure gradient across the Peninsular Ranges, some potential for critical fire weather may linger into Friday morning. Even with fire weather conditions being modestly improved from the past two days, critical conditions are still expected to persist across areas with ongoing fires. Winds of 20-30 mph are expected with locally higher values in the terrain. Wind gusts of 40-60 mph will also be possible, particularly within the terrain. With poor overnight RH recovery expected Wednesday night, a larger spatial extent of single digit RH is possible, though 10-20% will be more common. Significant fire growth remains likely with ongoing or new fires. ...Central/South Florida... Down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida. RH of 25-35% is possible by the afternoon. With winds likely remaining light--mostly below 10 mph--only locally elevated conditions are expected. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... An elongated western trough will undergo some amplification today as a mid-level jet dives southward on its western flank. An upper-level ridge will build into the Northwest and northern California in its wake. At the surface, high pressure will exist across much of the CONUS. The strongest high pressure will persist in the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Southern California... After a temporary weakening of the offshore gradient overnight Wednesday, some strengthening can be expected by early this morning. Guidance continues to suggest that the offshore gradient will maintain strength through the day today and into Friday morning. Winds will have an increasing westerly component with time as the high pressure system shifts southward. Upper-level support winds will begin the day modest, but as the mid-level jet moves southward through the Great Basin/Lower Colorado River Valley some increase in those winds is anticipated in southern California. Stronger gust potential will increase during the afternoon as a result. With the shifting of the high pressure system, some weakening of the strongest winds is expected from north to south overnight. However, with a more favorably oriented pressure gradient across the Peninsular Ranges, some potential for critical fire weather may linger into Friday morning. Even with fire weather conditions being modestly improved from the past two days, critical conditions are still expected to persist across areas with ongoing fires. Winds of 20-30 mph are expected with locally higher values in the terrain. Wind gusts of 40-60 mph will also be possible, particularly within the terrain. With poor overnight RH recovery expected Wednesday night, a larger spatial extent of single digit RH is possible, though 10-20% will be more common. Significant fire growth remains likely with ongoing or new fires. ...Central/South Florida... Down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida. RH of 25-35% is possible by the afternoon. With winds likely remaining light--mostly below 10 mph--only locally elevated conditions are expected. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... An elongated western trough will undergo some amplification today as a mid-level jet dives southward on its western flank. An upper-level ridge will build into the Northwest and northern California in its wake. At the surface, high pressure will exist across much of the CONUS. The strongest high pressure will persist in the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Southern California... After a temporary weakening of the offshore gradient overnight Wednesday, some strengthening can be expected by early this morning. Guidance continues to suggest that the offshore gradient will maintain strength through the day today and into Friday morning. Winds will have an increasing westerly component with time as the high pressure system shifts southward. Upper-level support winds will begin the day modest, but as the mid-level jet moves southward through the Great Basin/Lower Colorado River Valley some increase in those winds is anticipated in southern California. Stronger gust potential will increase during the afternoon as a result. With the shifting of the high pressure system, some weakening of the strongest winds is expected from north to south overnight. However, with a more favorably oriented pressure gradient across the Peninsular Ranges, some potential for critical fire weather may linger into Friday morning. Even with fire weather conditions being modestly improved from the past two days, critical conditions are still expected to persist across areas with ongoing fires. Winds of 20-30 mph are expected with locally higher values in the terrain. Wind gusts of 40-60 mph will also be possible, particularly within the terrain. With poor overnight RH recovery expected Wednesday night, a larger spatial extent of single digit RH is possible, though 10-20% will be more common. Significant fire growth remains likely with ongoing or new fires. ...Central/South Florida... Down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida. RH of 25-35% is possible by the afternoon. With winds likely remaining light--mostly below 10 mph--only locally elevated conditions are expected. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... An elongated western trough will undergo some amplification today as a mid-level jet dives southward on its western flank. An upper-level ridge will build into the Northwest and northern California in its wake. At the surface, high pressure will exist across much of the CONUS. The strongest high pressure will persist in the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Southern California... After a temporary weakening of the offshore gradient overnight Wednesday, some strengthening can be expected by early this morning. Guidance continues to suggest that the offshore gradient will maintain strength through the day today and into Friday morning. Winds will have an increasing westerly component with time as the high pressure system shifts southward. Upper-level support winds will begin the day modest, but as the mid-level jet moves southward through the Great Basin/Lower Colorado River Valley some increase in those winds is anticipated in southern California. Stronger gust potential will increase during the afternoon as a result. With the shifting of the high pressure system, some weakening of the strongest winds is expected from north to south overnight. However, with a more favorably oriented pressure gradient across the Peninsular Ranges, some potential for critical fire weather may linger into Friday morning. Even with fire weather conditions being modestly improved from the past two days, critical conditions are still expected to persist across areas with ongoing fires. Winds of 20-30 mph are expected with locally higher values in the terrain. Wind gusts of 40-60 mph will also be possible, particularly within the terrain. With poor overnight RH recovery expected Wednesday night, a larger spatial extent of single digit RH is possible, though 10-20% will be more common. Significant fire growth remains likely with ongoing or new fires. ...Central/South Florida... Down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida. RH of 25-35% is possible by the afternoon. With winds likely remaining light--mostly below 10 mph--only locally elevated conditions are expected. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... An elongated western trough will undergo some amplification today as a mid-level jet dives southward on its western flank. An upper-level ridge will build into the Northwest and northern California in its wake. At the surface, high pressure will exist across much of the CONUS. The strongest high pressure will persist in the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Southern California... After a temporary weakening of the offshore gradient overnight Wednesday, some strengthening can be expected by early this morning. Guidance continues to suggest that the offshore gradient will maintain strength through the day today and into Friday morning. Winds will have an increasing westerly component with time as the high pressure system shifts southward. Upper-level support winds will begin the day modest, but as the mid-level jet moves southward through the Great Basin/Lower Colorado River Valley some increase in those winds is anticipated in southern California. Stronger gust potential will increase during the afternoon as a result. With the shifting of the high pressure system, some weakening of the strongest winds is expected from north to south overnight. However, with a more favorably oriented pressure gradient across the Peninsular Ranges, some potential for critical fire weather may linger into Friday morning. Even with fire weather conditions being modestly improved from the past two days, critical conditions are still expected to persist across areas with ongoing fires. Winds of 20-30 mph are expected with locally higher values in the terrain. Wind gusts of 40-60 mph will also be possible, particularly within the terrain. With poor overnight RH recovery expected Wednesday night, a larger spatial extent of single digit RH is possible, though 10-20% will be more common. Significant fire growth remains likely with ongoing or new fires. ...Central/South Florida... Down-peninsula winds will push drier air into Florida. RH of 25-35% is possible by the afternoon. With winds likely remaining light--mostly below 10 mph--only locally elevated conditions are expected. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop on Friday across parts of the central Gulf Coast but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move across the southern Plains on Friday as west-southwesterly flow remains in place across the Southeast. At the surface, a low and associated cold front will move eastward along the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 50s F inland, and in the 60s F southward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Surface heating within this moist airmass overland will remain very limited, keeping instability at a minimum. For this reason, no severe threat is expected on Friday. ..Broyles.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop on Friday across parts of the central Gulf Coast but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move across the southern Plains on Friday as west-southwesterly flow remains in place across the Southeast. At the surface, a low and associated cold front will move eastward along the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 50s F inland, and in the 60s F southward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Surface heating within this moist airmass overland will remain very limited, keeping instability at a minimum. For this reason, no severe threat is expected on Friday. ..Broyles.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop on Friday across parts of the central Gulf Coast but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move across the southern Plains on Friday as west-southwesterly flow remains in place across the Southeast. At the surface, a low and associated cold front will move eastward along the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 50s F inland, and in the 60s F southward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Surface heating within this moist airmass overland will remain very limited, keeping instability at a minimum. For this reason, no severe threat is expected on Friday. ..Broyles.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop on Friday across parts of the central Gulf Coast but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move across the southern Plains on Friday as west-southwesterly flow remains in place across the Southeast. At the surface, a low and associated cold front will move eastward along the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 50s F inland, and in the 60s F southward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Surface heating within this moist airmass overland will remain very limited, keeping instability at a minimum. For this reason, no severe threat is expected on Friday. ..Broyles.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop on Friday across parts of the central Gulf Coast but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move across the southern Plains on Friday as west-southwesterly flow remains in place across the Southeast. At the surface, a low and associated cold front will move eastward along the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 50s F inland, and in the 60s F southward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Surface heating within this moist airmass overland will remain very limited, keeping instability at a minimum. For this reason, no severe threat is expected on Friday. ..Broyles.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Friday morning. ...Synopsis... A large, positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the Four Corners into Baja CA early today, and will move eastward into the Plains through Friday morning. Strong southwest flow aloft will spread east across the southern Plains and into the lower MS Valley, with nearly 100 kt at 500 mb within the leading speed max. At the surface, a cool and stable air mass will remain due to high pressure, though warming above the boundary layer will occur. The strongest theta-e advection will occur over much of southern to eastern TX through 00Z, spreading across LS and MS into Friday morning. While shear will be very strong, only elevated instability will exist over land, north of a developing surface low over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. MUCAPE of 100 to 250 J/kg appears reasonable over parts of TX and extending late into LA, with scattered convective shower and thunderstorms possible. It is unlikely that instability will be strong enough for any hail risk given poor lapse rates aloft. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Friday morning. ...Synopsis... A large, positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the Four Corners into Baja CA early today, and will move eastward into the Plains through Friday morning. Strong southwest flow aloft will spread east across the southern Plains and into the lower MS Valley, with nearly 100 kt at 500 mb within the leading speed max. At the surface, a cool and stable air mass will remain due to high pressure, though warming above the boundary layer will occur. The strongest theta-e advection will occur over much of southern to eastern TX through 00Z, spreading across LS and MS into Friday morning. While shear will be very strong, only elevated instability will exist over land, north of a developing surface low over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. MUCAPE of 100 to 250 J/kg appears reasonable over parts of TX and extending late into LA, with scattered convective shower and thunderstorms possible. It is unlikely that instability will be strong enough for any hail risk given poor lapse rates aloft. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Friday morning. ...Synopsis... A large, positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the Four Corners into Baja CA early today, and will move eastward into the Plains through Friday morning. Strong southwest flow aloft will spread east across the southern Plains and into the lower MS Valley, with nearly 100 kt at 500 mb within the leading speed max. At the surface, a cool and stable air mass will remain due to high pressure, though warming above the boundary layer will occur. The strongest theta-e advection will occur over much of southern to eastern TX through 00Z, spreading across LS and MS into Friday morning. While shear will be very strong, only elevated instability will exist over land, north of a developing surface low over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. MUCAPE of 100 to 250 J/kg appears reasonable over parts of TX and extending late into LA, with scattered convective shower and thunderstorms possible. It is unlikely that instability will be strong enough for any hail risk given poor lapse rates aloft. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Friday morning. ...Synopsis... A large, positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the Four Corners into Baja CA early today, and will move eastward into the Plains through Friday morning. Strong southwest flow aloft will spread east across the southern Plains and into the lower MS Valley, with nearly 100 kt at 500 mb within the leading speed max. At the surface, a cool and stable air mass will remain due to high pressure, though warming above the boundary layer will occur. The strongest theta-e advection will occur over much of southern to eastern TX through 00Z, spreading across LS and MS into Friday morning. While shear will be very strong, only elevated instability will exist over land, north of a developing surface low over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. MUCAPE of 100 to 250 J/kg appears reasonable over parts of TX and extending late into LA, with scattered convective shower and thunderstorms possible. It is unlikely that instability will be strong enough for any hail risk given poor lapse rates aloft. ..Jewell/Wendt.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts of west-central into southwestern Texas. ...Synopsis... Temporary upper ridging will occur over the southern Plains tonight, as the large-scale eastern trough moves out of the OH Valley, and a deep shortwave trough swings east across northern Mexico. Given high pressure over much of the Plains and eastern CONUS, the surface air mass will remain relatively cool and stable. Ahead of the Mexican wave, warming/moistening will occur atop the cool stable layer, with expanding areas of precipitation over NM, TX, and into OK late. 00Z soundings from EPZ to MAF already shows modestly steep midlevel lapse rates, with little CAPE currently. However, weak elevated instability is expected to develop overnight, primarily from the latitude of El Paso to Midland TX southward. Even so, lift will be weak, with only sporadic lightning flashes expected. ..Jewell.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts of west-central into southwestern Texas. ...Synopsis... Temporary upper ridging will occur over the southern Plains tonight, as the large-scale eastern trough moves out of the OH Valley, and a deep shortwave trough swings east across northern Mexico. Given high pressure over much of the Plains and eastern CONUS, the surface air mass will remain relatively cool and stable. Ahead of the Mexican wave, warming/moistening will occur atop the cool stable layer, with expanding areas of precipitation over NM, TX, and into OK late. 00Z soundings from EPZ to MAF already shows modestly steep midlevel lapse rates, with little CAPE currently. However, weak elevated instability is expected to develop overnight, primarily from the latitude of El Paso to Midland TX southward. Even so, lift will be weak, with only sporadic lightning flashes expected. ..Jewell.. 01/09/2025 Read more