Aggregator

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Discussion... Multiple continental surges have overspread the CONUS the last few days. Resultant deep offshore flow has forced any semblance of low-level moisture/buoyancy well east and south of the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. Deep convection is not expected. ..Darrow.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Discussion... Multiple continental surges have overspread the CONUS the last few days. Resultant deep offshore flow has forced any semblance of low-level moisture/buoyancy well east and south of the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. Deep convection is not expected. ..Darrow.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Discussion... Multiple continental surges have overspread the CONUS the last few days. Resultant deep offshore flow has forced any semblance of low-level moisture/buoyancy well east and south of the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. Deep convection is not expected. ..Darrow.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm threat is negligible tonight. ...01z Update... Continental air mass dominates the majority of the CONUS this evening. Offshore flow and stable conditions will prevent deep convection along with any threat for lightning. ..Darrow.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm threat is negligible tonight. ...01z Update... Continental air mass dominates the majority of the CONUS this evening. Offshore flow and stable conditions will prevent deep convection along with any threat for lightning. ..Darrow.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm threat is negligible tonight. ...01z Update... Continental air mass dominates the majority of the CONUS this evening. Offshore flow and stable conditions will prevent deep convection along with any threat for lightning. ..Darrow.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm threat is negligible tonight. ...01z Update... Continental air mass dominates the majority of the CONUS this evening. Offshore flow and stable conditions will prevent deep convection along with any threat for lightning. ..Darrow.. 01/24/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 23 22:22:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 23 22:22:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z On Day 3/Saturday, west-southwesterly deep-layer flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest, southern Great Basin, and inland southern CA ahead of a midlevel trough. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will develop across the region, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible -- especially across portions of southern/central AZ and the inland mountains of southern CA. By Day 3/Saturday evening/night, precipitation will likely overspread much of southern CA and persist through the weekend. This should reduce fire-weather concerns through the remainder of the extended forecast period. From Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday, locally dry/breezy conditions will be possible across the Southwest into the southern Rockies each afternoon, as the midlevel trough/low (and strong flow aloft) continues slowly east-southeastward. Similar conditions will be possible across the southern High Plains on Days 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though mostly marginal fuels should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z On Day 3/Saturday, west-southwesterly deep-layer flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest, southern Great Basin, and inland southern CA ahead of a midlevel trough. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will develop across the region, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible -- especially across portions of southern/central AZ and the inland mountains of southern CA. By Day 3/Saturday evening/night, precipitation will likely overspread much of southern CA and persist through the weekend. This should reduce fire-weather concerns through the remainder of the extended forecast period. From Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday, locally dry/breezy conditions will be possible across the Southwest into the southern Rockies each afternoon, as the midlevel trough/low (and strong flow aloft) continues slowly east-southeastward. Similar conditions will be possible across the southern High Plains on Days 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though mostly marginal fuels should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z On Day 3/Saturday, west-southwesterly deep-layer flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest, southern Great Basin, and inland southern CA ahead of a midlevel trough. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will develop across the region, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible -- especially across portions of southern/central AZ and the inland mountains of southern CA. By Day 3/Saturday evening/night, precipitation will likely overspread much of southern CA and persist through the weekend. This should reduce fire-weather concerns through the remainder of the extended forecast period. From Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday, locally dry/breezy conditions will be possible across the Southwest into the southern Rockies each afternoon, as the midlevel trough/low (and strong flow aloft) continues slowly east-southeastward. Similar conditions will be possible across the southern High Plains on Days 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though mostly marginal fuels should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z On Day 3/Saturday, west-southwesterly deep-layer flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest, southern Great Basin, and inland southern CA ahead of a midlevel trough. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will develop across the region, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible -- especially across portions of southern/central AZ and the inland mountains of southern CA. By Day 3/Saturday evening/night, precipitation will likely overspread much of southern CA and persist through the weekend. This should reduce fire-weather concerns through the remainder of the extended forecast period. From Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday, locally dry/breezy conditions will be possible across the Southwest into the southern Rockies each afternoon, as the midlevel trough/low (and strong flow aloft) continues slowly east-southeastward. Similar conditions will be possible across the southern High Plains on Days 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though mostly marginal fuels should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z On Day 3/Saturday, west-southwesterly deep-layer flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest, southern Great Basin, and inland southern CA ahead of a midlevel trough. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will develop across the region, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible -- especially across portions of southern/central AZ and the inland mountains of southern CA. By Day 3/Saturday evening/night, precipitation will likely overspread much of southern CA and persist through the weekend. This should reduce fire-weather concerns through the remainder of the extended forecast period. From Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday, locally dry/breezy conditions will be possible across the Southwest into the southern Rockies each afternoon, as the midlevel trough/low (and strong flow aloft) continues slowly east-southeastward. Similar conditions will be possible across the southern High Plains on Days 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though mostly marginal fuels should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of western North TX into southwest OK. Here, guidance is in good agreement, depicting 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent RH. While fuels are somewhat marginal across much of the area, the latest fuels report suggests that they are at least modestly supportive of a large fire -- warranting the highlights. Dry/breezy conditions are also expected farther northwest into the TX Panhandle, though fuels appear less receptive here. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface pressure gradient should be diffusing across southern California as a mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast, encouraging surface low development with onshore flow by late tomorrow (Friday) afternoon. Since some dry offshore flow may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Friday) though, Elevated highlights were introduced given lingering very dry air (10-15 percent RH) and highly receptive fuels. Meanwhile, the deepening of the West Coast upper trough will also support strong surface lee troughing and associated downslope flow across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. Guidance consensus shows RH dipping into the 10-20 percent range by afternoon peak heating, with sustained southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph on a widespread basis. While such conditions would typically necessitate fire weather highlights, fuel receptiveness currently appears too marginal to support widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of western North TX into southwest OK. Here, guidance is in good agreement, depicting 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent RH. While fuels are somewhat marginal across much of the area, the latest fuels report suggests that they are at least modestly supportive of a large fire -- warranting the highlights. Dry/breezy conditions are also expected farther northwest into the TX Panhandle, though fuels appear less receptive here. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface pressure gradient should be diffusing across southern California as a mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast, encouraging surface low development with onshore flow by late tomorrow (Friday) afternoon. Since some dry offshore flow may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Friday) though, Elevated highlights were introduced given lingering very dry air (10-15 percent RH) and highly receptive fuels. Meanwhile, the deepening of the West Coast upper trough will also support strong surface lee troughing and associated downslope flow across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. Guidance consensus shows RH dipping into the 10-20 percent range by afternoon peak heating, with sustained southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph on a widespread basis. While such conditions would typically necessitate fire weather highlights, fuel receptiveness currently appears too marginal to support widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of western North TX into southwest OK. Here, guidance is in good agreement, depicting 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent RH. While fuels are somewhat marginal across much of the area, the latest fuels report suggests that they are at least modestly supportive of a large fire -- warranting the highlights. Dry/breezy conditions are also expected farther northwest into the TX Panhandle, though fuels appear less receptive here. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface pressure gradient should be diffusing across southern California as a mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast, encouraging surface low development with onshore flow by late tomorrow (Friday) afternoon. Since some dry offshore flow may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Friday) though, Elevated highlights were introduced given lingering very dry air (10-15 percent RH) and highly receptive fuels. Meanwhile, the deepening of the West Coast upper trough will also support strong surface lee troughing and associated downslope flow across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. Guidance consensus shows RH dipping into the 10-20 percent range by afternoon peak heating, with sustained southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph on a widespread basis. While such conditions would typically necessitate fire weather highlights, fuel receptiveness currently appears too marginal to support widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of western North TX into southwest OK. Here, guidance is in good agreement, depicting 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent RH. While fuels are somewhat marginal across much of the area, the latest fuels report suggests that they are at least modestly supportive of a large fire -- warranting the highlights. Dry/breezy conditions are also expected farther northwest into the TX Panhandle, though fuels appear less receptive here. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface pressure gradient should be diffusing across southern California as a mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast, encouraging surface low development with onshore flow by late tomorrow (Friday) afternoon. Since some dry offshore flow may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Friday) though, Elevated highlights were introduced given lingering very dry air (10-15 percent RH) and highly receptive fuels. Meanwhile, the deepening of the West Coast upper trough will also support strong surface lee troughing and associated downslope flow across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. Guidance consensus shows RH dipping into the 10-20 percent range by afternoon peak heating, with sustained southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph on a widespread basis. While such conditions would typically necessitate fire weather highlights, fuel receptiveness currently appears too marginal to support widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of western North TX into southwest OK. Here, guidance is in good agreement, depicting 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent RH. While fuels are somewhat marginal across much of the area, the latest fuels report suggests that they are at least modestly supportive of a large fire -- warranting the highlights. Dry/breezy conditions are also expected farther northwest into the TX Panhandle, though fuels appear less receptive here. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface pressure gradient should be diffusing across southern California as a mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast, encouraging surface low development with onshore flow by late tomorrow (Friday) afternoon. Since some dry offshore flow may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Friday) though, Elevated highlights were introduced given lingering very dry air (10-15 percent RH) and highly receptive fuels. Meanwhile, the deepening of the West Coast upper trough will also support strong surface lee troughing and associated downslope flow across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. Guidance consensus shows RH dipping into the 10-20 percent range by afternoon peak heating, with sustained southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph on a widespread basis. While such conditions would typically necessitate fire weather highlights, fuel receptiveness currently appears too marginal to support widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of western North TX into southwest OK. Here, guidance is in good agreement, depicting 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent RH. While fuels are somewhat marginal across much of the area, the latest fuels report suggests that they are at least modestly supportive of a large fire -- warranting the highlights. Dry/breezy conditions are also expected farther northwest into the TX Panhandle, though fuels appear less receptive here. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface pressure gradient should be diffusing across southern California as a mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast, encouraging surface low development with onshore flow by late tomorrow (Friday) afternoon. Since some dry offshore flow may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Friday) though, Elevated highlights were introduced given lingering very dry air (10-15 percent RH) and highly receptive fuels. Meanwhile, the deepening of the West Coast upper trough will also support strong surface lee troughing and associated downslope flow across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. Guidance consensus shows RH dipping into the 10-20 percent range by afternoon peak heating, with sustained southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph on a widespread basis. While such conditions would typically necessitate fire weather highlights, fuel receptiveness currently appears too marginal to support widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more