Aggregator

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast for Saturday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the southern/central Rockies and adjacent Plains as an upper trough continues to deepen across the Pacific Coast vicinity. As this occurs, a surface low will move across northern Mexico. Resulting south/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf will transport moisture northward across portions of southern and southeastern TX. Within this warm advection regime, weak elevated instability is expected to develop due to cool temperatures aloft and steepening midlevel lapse rates. This should be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms Saturday night/early Sunday across southeast TX and portions of the Middle and Upper TX Coasts. Severe thunderstorm potential appears low at this time given a lack of surface-based instability. ..Leitman.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast for Saturday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the southern/central Rockies and adjacent Plains as an upper trough continues to deepen across the Pacific Coast vicinity. As this occurs, a surface low will move across northern Mexico. Resulting south/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf will transport moisture northward across portions of southern and southeastern TX. Within this warm advection regime, weak elevated instability is expected to develop due to cool temperatures aloft and steepening midlevel lapse rates. This should be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms Saturday night/early Sunday across southeast TX and portions of the Middle and Upper TX Coasts. Severe thunderstorm potential appears low at this time given a lack of surface-based instability. ..Leitman.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast for Saturday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the southern/central Rockies and adjacent Plains as an upper trough continues to deepen across the Pacific Coast vicinity. As this occurs, a surface low will move across northern Mexico. Resulting south/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf will transport moisture northward across portions of southern and southeastern TX. Within this warm advection regime, weak elevated instability is expected to develop due to cool temperatures aloft and steepening midlevel lapse rates. This should be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms Saturday night/early Sunday across southeast TX and portions of the Middle and Upper TX Coasts. Severe thunderstorm potential appears low at this time given a lack of surface-based instability. ..Leitman.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast for Saturday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the southern/central Rockies and adjacent Plains as an upper trough continues to deepen across the Pacific Coast vicinity. As this occurs, a surface low will move across northern Mexico. Resulting south/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf will transport moisture northward across portions of southern and southeastern TX. Within this warm advection regime, weak elevated instability is expected to develop due to cool temperatures aloft and steepening midlevel lapse rates. This should be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms Saturday night/early Sunday across southeast TX and portions of the Middle and Upper TX Coasts. Severe thunderstorm potential appears low at this time given a lack of surface-based instability. ..Leitman.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough from the Great Lakes to the western Gulf will shift east, moving offshore the Atlantic coast by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, low-amplitude westerly flow will emerge east of the Rockies in the wake of the upper trough as another trough begins to dig across the western U.S. late in the period. At the surface, high pressure over the eastern U.S., and across the northern Rockies, will maintain a dry and stable airmass, precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough from the Great Lakes to the western Gulf will shift east, moving offshore the Atlantic coast by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, low-amplitude westerly flow will emerge east of the Rockies in the wake of the upper trough as another trough begins to dig across the western U.S. late in the period. At the surface, high pressure over the eastern U.S., and across the northern Rockies, will maintain a dry and stable airmass, precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough from the Great Lakes to the western Gulf will shift east, moving offshore the Atlantic coast by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, low-amplitude westerly flow will emerge east of the Rockies in the wake of the upper trough as another trough begins to dig across the western U.S. late in the period. At the surface, high pressure over the eastern U.S., and across the northern Rockies, will maintain a dry and stable airmass, precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough from the Great Lakes to the western Gulf will shift east, moving offshore the Atlantic coast by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, low-amplitude westerly flow will emerge east of the Rockies in the wake of the upper trough as another trough begins to dig across the western U.S. late in the period. At the surface, high pressure over the eastern U.S., and across the northern Rockies, will maintain a dry and stable airmass, precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough from the Great Lakes to the western Gulf will shift east, moving offshore the Atlantic coast by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, low-amplitude westerly flow will emerge east of the Rockies in the wake of the upper trough as another trough begins to dig across the western U.S. late in the period. At the surface, high pressure over the eastern U.S., and across the northern Rockies, will maintain a dry and stable airmass, precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough from the Great Lakes to the western Gulf will shift east, moving offshore the Atlantic coast by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, low-amplitude westerly flow will emerge east of the Rockies in the wake of the upper trough as another trough begins to dig across the western U.S. late in the period. At the surface, high pressure over the eastern U.S., and across the northern Rockies, will maintain a dry and stable airmass, precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... A minor expansion was made to the Critical highlights in Los Angeles County, based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. As of 15Z, the LAX-DAG pressure gradient was at -8.6 mb (critical conditions typically associated with -5 mb or less), and this offshore gradient will likely remain at peak values for the next couple hours. The latest surface observations show widespread critical conditions across southern CA, with gusts upwards of 60-75 mph and single-digit RH over the wind-prone mountains. These localized extremely critical conditions will persist through this afternoon before gradually subsiding into tonight. Elsewhere across the lower elevations, 20-30 mph sustained east-northeasterly surface winds (with 30-40 mph gusts) and single-digit RH will also continue through at least this afternoon, resulting in high-end critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains today, with a strong surface pressure gradient persisting over southern California for the first half of the period before gradually relaxing. From the start of the period into at least mid-afternoon, strong and dry offshore flow will continue to support dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Sustained wind speeds well exceeding 20 mph amid 10 percent RH should be common around the Los Angeles metropolitan area southeast to the Laguna Mountain range. However, terrain-favoring areas (especially at higher elevations) may see winds sustain over 50 mph for at least brief periods of time, perhaps with gusts reaching 70 mph, as RH drops to single-digits. Given very dry fuels, at least localized and brief Extremely Critical conditions should be expected, with high-end Critical conditions more likely on a widespread basis. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... A minor expansion was made to the Critical highlights in Los Angeles County, based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. As of 15Z, the LAX-DAG pressure gradient was at -8.6 mb (critical conditions typically associated with -5 mb or less), and this offshore gradient will likely remain at peak values for the next couple hours. The latest surface observations show widespread critical conditions across southern CA, with gusts upwards of 60-75 mph and single-digit RH over the wind-prone mountains. These localized extremely critical conditions will persist through this afternoon before gradually subsiding into tonight. Elsewhere across the lower elevations, 20-30 mph sustained east-northeasterly surface winds (with 30-40 mph gusts) and single-digit RH will also continue through at least this afternoon, resulting in high-end critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains today, with a strong surface pressure gradient persisting over southern California for the first half of the period before gradually relaxing. From the start of the period into at least mid-afternoon, strong and dry offshore flow will continue to support dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Sustained wind speeds well exceeding 20 mph amid 10 percent RH should be common around the Los Angeles metropolitan area southeast to the Laguna Mountain range. However, terrain-favoring areas (especially at higher elevations) may see winds sustain over 50 mph for at least brief periods of time, perhaps with gusts reaching 70 mph, as RH drops to single-digits. Given very dry fuels, at least localized and brief Extremely Critical conditions should be expected, with high-end Critical conditions more likely on a widespread basis. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... A minor expansion was made to the Critical highlights in Los Angeles County, based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. As of 15Z, the LAX-DAG pressure gradient was at -8.6 mb (critical conditions typically associated with -5 mb or less), and this offshore gradient will likely remain at peak values for the next couple hours. The latest surface observations show widespread critical conditions across southern CA, with gusts upwards of 60-75 mph and single-digit RH over the wind-prone mountains. These localized extremely critical conditions will persist through this afternoon before gradually subsiding into tonight. Elsewhere across the lower elevations, 20-30 mph sustained east-northeasterly surface winds (with 30-40 mph gusts) and single-digit RH will also continue through at least this afternoon, resulting in high-end critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains today, with a strong surface pressure gradient persisting over southern California for the first half of the period before gradually relaxing. From the start of the period into at least mid-afternoon, strong and dry offshore flow will continue to support dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Sustained wind speeds well exceeding 20 mph amid 10 percent RH should be common around the Los Angeles metropolitan area southeast to the Laguna Mountain range. However, terrain-favoring areas (especially at higher elevations) may see winds sustain over 50 mph for at least brief periods of time, perhaps with gusts reaching 70 mph, as RH drops to single-digits. Given very dry fuels, at least localized and brief Extremely Critical conditions should be expected, with high-end Critical conditions more likely on a widespread basis. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... A minor expansion was made to the Critical highlights in Los Angeles County, based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. As of 15Z, the LAX-DAG pressure gradient was at -8.6 mb (critical conditions typically associated with -5 mb or less), and this offshore gradient will likely remain at peak values for the next couple hours. The latest surface observations show widespread critical conditions across southern CA, with gusts upwards of 60-75 mph and single-digit RH over the wind-prone mountains. These localized extremely critical conditions will persist through this afternoon before gradually subsiding into tonight. Elsewhere across the lower elevations, 20-30 mph sustained east-northeasterly surface winds (with 30-40 mph gusts) and single-digit RH will also continue through at least this afternoon, resulting in high-end critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains today, with a strong surface pressure gradient persisting over southern California for the first half of the period before gradually relaxing. From the start of the period into at least mid-afternoon, strong and dry offshore flow will continue to support dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Sustained wind speeds well exceeding 20 mph amid 10 percent RH should be common around the Los Angeles metropolitan area southeast to the Laguna Mountain range. However, terrain-favoring areas (especially at higher elevations) may see winds sustain over 50 mph for at least brief periods of time, perhaps with gusts reaching 70 mph, as RH drops to single-digits. Given very dry fuels, at least localized and brief Extremely Critical conditions should be expected, with high-end Critical conditions more likely on a widespread basis. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... A minor expansion was made to the Critical highlights in Los Angeles County, based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. As of 15Z, the LAX-DAG pressure gradient was at -8.6 mb (critical conditions typically associated with -5 mb or less), and this offshore gradient will likely remain at peak values for the next couple hours. The latest surface observations show widespread critical conditions across southern CA, with gusts upwards of 60-75 mph and single-digit RH over the wind-prone mountains. These localized extremely critical conditions will persist through this afternoon before gradually subsiding into tonight. Elsewhere across the lower elevations, 20-30 mph sustained east-northeasterly surface winds (with 30-40 mph gusts) and single-digit RH will also continue through at least this afternoon, resulting in high-end critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains today, with a strong surface pressure gradient persisting over southern California for the first half of the period before gradually relaxing. From the start of the period into at least mid-afternoon, strong and dry offshore flow will continue to support dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Sustained wind speeds well exceeding 20 mph amid 10 percent RH should be common around the Los Angeles metropolitan area southeast to the Laguna Mountain range. However, terrain-favoring areas (especially at higher elevations) may see winds sustain over 50 mph for at least brief periods of time, perhaps with gusts reaching 70 mph, as RH drops to single-digits. Given very dry fuels, at least localized and brief Extremely Critical conditions should be expected, with high-end Critical conditions more likely on a widespread basis. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... A minor expansion was made to the Critical highlights in Los Angeles County, based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. As of 15Z, the LAX-DAG pressure gradient was at -8.6 mb (critical conditions typically associated with -5 mb or less), and this offshore gradient will likely remain at peak values for the next couple hours. The latest surface observations show widespread critical conditions across southern CA, with gusts upwards of 60-75 mph and single-digit RH over the wind-prone mountains. These localized extremely critical conditions will persist through this afternoon before gradually subsiding into tonight. Elsewhere across the lower elevations, 20-30 mph sustained east-northeasterly surface winds (with 30-40 mph gusts) and single-digit RH will also continue through at least this afternoon, resulting in high-end critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains today, with a strong surface pressure gradient persisting over southern California for the first half of the period before gradually relaxing. From the start of the period into at least mid-afternoon, strong and dry offshore flow will continue to support dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Sustained wind speeds well exceeding 20 mph amid 10 percent RH should be common around the Los Angeles metropolitan area southeast to the Laguna Mountain range. However, terrain-favoring areas (especially at higher elevations) may see winds sustain over 50 mph for at least brief periods of time, perhaps with gusts reaching 70 mph, as RH drops to single-digits. Given very dry fuels, at least localized and brief Extremely Critical conditions should be expected, with high-end Critical conditions more likely on a widespread basis. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough currently moving through NM is forecast to continue east-southeastward across the southern Plains today, helping to induce an eastward shift in the mean upper troughing across the central and eastern CONUS. As it does, another surge of cold and dry continental air is anticipated across the Plains and MS Valley, with associated high surface pressure contributing to continued offshore flow. High surface pressure will remain over the western CONUS as well. Resulting dearth of low-level moisture will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier/Dean.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough currently moving through NM is forecast to continue east-southeastward across the southern Plains today, helping to induce an eastward shift in the mean upper troughing across the central and eastern CONUS. As it does, another surge of cold and dry continental air is anticipated across the Plains and MS Valley, with associated high surface pressure contributing to continued offshore flow. High surface pressure will remain over the western CONUS as well. Resulting dearth of low-level moisture will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier/Dean.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough currently moving through NM is forecast to continue east-southeastward across the southern Plains today, helping to induce an eastward shift in the mean upper troughing across the central and eastern CONUS. As it does, another surge of cold and dry continental air is anticipated across the Plains and MS Valley, with associated high surface pressure contributing to continued offshore flow. High surface pressure will remain over the western CONUS as well. Resulting dearth of low-level moisture will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier/Dean.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough currently moving through NM is forecast to continue east-southeastward across the southern Plains today, helping to induce an eastward shift in the mean upper troughing across the central and eastern CONUS. As it does, another surge of cold and dry continental air is anticipated across the Plains and MS Valley, with associated high surface pressure contributing to continued offshore flow. High surface pressure will remain over the western CONUS as well. Resulting dearth of low-level moisture will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier/Dean.. 01/23/2025 Read more