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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The Critical highlights were expanded to the Malibu Coast vicinity, and nudged westward toward the coast in southern Orange County and San Diego County with this update. For both areas, the latest high-resolution guidance is in good agreement, depicting 20+ mph sustained east-northeasterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid single-digit to lower teens RH. The strongest winds are currently expected Wednesday night into Day 3/Thursday. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface pressure gradient will persist across southern California, with some strengthening of the gradient likely by late Wednesday afternoon as another in a series of mid-level troughs overspread the Great Basin tomorrow (Wednesday). Another day of offshore flow capable of supporting rapid wildfire spread is expected. By afternoon peak heating, widespread sustained 20-30 mph wind speeds are likely, along with RH dropping to at least the 10-15 percent range. Locally higher wind speeds/gusts are also likely in terrain-favoring areas. Anywhere from the Ventura Valley region to the Laguna Mountains may experience the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions, necessitating the introduction of Critical fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The Critical highlights were expanded to the Malibu Coast vicinity, and nudged westward toward the coast in southern Orange County and San Diego County with this update. For both areas, the latest high-resolution guidance is in good agreement, depicting 20+ mph sustained east-northeasterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid single-digit to lower teens RH. The strongest winds are currently expected Wednesday night into Day 3/Thursday. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface pressure gradient will persist across southern California, with some strengthening of the gradient likely by late Wednesday afternoon as another in a series of mid-level troughs overspread the Great Basin tomorrow (Wednesday). Another day of offshore flow capable of supporting rapid wildfire spread is expected. By afternoon peak heating, widespread sustained 20-30 mph wind speeds are likely, along with RH dropping to at least the 10-15 percent range. Locally higher wind speeds/gusts are also likely in terrain-favoring areas. Anywhere from the Ventura Valley region to the Laguna Mountains may experience the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions, necessitating the introduction of Critical fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The Critical highlights were expanded to the Malibu Coast vicinity, and nudged westward toward the coast in southern Orange County and San Diego County with this update. For both areas, the latest high-resolution guidance is in good agreement, depicting 20+ mph sustained east-northeasterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid single-digit to lower teens RH. The strongest winds are currently expected Wednesday night into Day 3/Thursday. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A surface pressure gradient will persist across southern California, with some strengthening of the gradient likely by late Wednesday afternoon as another in a series of mid-level troughs overspread the Great Basin tomorrow (Wednesday). Another day of offshore flow capable of supporting rapid wildfire spread is expected. By afternoon peak heating, widespread sustained 20-30 mph wind speeds are likely, along with RH dropping to at least the 10-15 percent range. Locally higher wind speeds/gusts are also likely in terrain-favoring areas. Anywhere from the Ventura Valley region to the Laguna Mountains may experience the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions, necessitating the introduction of Critical fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...20z... No changes were made. Widespread winter precipitation is ongoing along the Gulf Coast. High pressure over the interior of the central CONUS will continue to support very cold, dry and stable conditions with offshore flow. This will negate sufficient buoyancy for thunderstorm potential. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... Expansive high pressure associated with a polar airmass is in place across is in place east of Rockies. This high, which is currently centered over eastern OK/western AR, is expected to shift eastward/northeastward throughout the day, ending the period over the Ohio Valley. Associated cold, dry, and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development. A similar environment is anticipated across the western CONUS, with high pressure and associated stability dominating the sensible weather. A deepening surface low will continue to shift eastward across the Gulf of Mexico, with strong warm-air advection throughout its warm sector contributing to a broad precipitation field across the Gulf Coast. A few lightning flashes were observed over Acadia Parish in south-central LA over the past hour, but these flashes were most likely created by the self-initiated upward leader process. Given the continuing windy conditions and potential for mixed-phase hydrometeors at low levels, some additional self-initiated flashes are possible throughout the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...20z... No changes were made. Widespread winter precipitation is ongoing along the Gulf Coast. High pressure over the interior of the central CONUS will continue to support very cold, dry and stable conditions with offshore flow. This will negate sufficient buoyancy for thunderstorm potential. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... Expansive high pressure associated with a polar airmass is in place across is in place east of Rockies. This high, which is currently centered over eastern OK/western AR, is expected to shift eastward/northeastward throughout the day, ending the period over the Ohio Valley. Associated cold, dry, and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development. A similar environment is anticipated across the western CONUS, with high pressure and associated stability dominating the sensible weather. A deepening surface low will continue to shift eastward across the Gulf of Mexico, with strong warm-air advection throughout its warm sector contributing to a broad precipitation field across the Gulf Coast. A few lightning flashes were observed over Acadia Parish in south-central LA over the past hour, but these flashes were most likely created by the self-initiated upward leader process. Given the continuing windy conditions and potential for mixed-phase hydrometeors at low levels, some additional self-initiated flashes are possible throughout the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...20z... No changes were made. Widespread winter precipitation is ongoing along the Gulf Coast. High pressure over the interior of the central CONUS will continue to support very cold, dry and stable conditions with offshore flow. This will negate sufficient buoyancy for thunderstorm potential. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... Expansive high pressure associated with a polar airmass is in place across is in place east of Rockies. This high, which is currently centered over eastern OK/western AR, is expected to shift eastward/northeastward throughout the day, ending the period over the Ohio Valley. Associated cold, dry, and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development. A similar environment is anticipated across the western CONUS, with high pressure and associated stability dominating the sensible weather. A deepening surface low will continue to shift eastward across the Gulf of Mexico, with strong warm-air advection throughout its warm sector contributing to a broad precipitation field across the Gulf Coast. A few lightning flashes were observed over Acadia Parish in south-central LA over the past hour, but these flashes were most likely created by the self-initiated upward leader process. Given the continuing windy conditions and potential for mixed-phase hydrometeors at low levels, some additional self-initiated flashes are possible throughout the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...20z... No changes were made. Widespread winter precipitation is ongoing along the Gulf Coast. High pressure over the interior of the central CONUS will continue to support very cold, dry and stable conditions with offshore flow. This will negate sufficient buoyancy for thunderstorm potential. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... Expansive high pressure associated with a polar airmass is in place across is in place east of Rockies. This high, which is currently centered over eastern OK/western AR, is expected to shift eastward/northeastward throughout the day, ending the period over the Ohio Valley. Associated cold, dry, and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development. A similar environment is anticipated across the western CONUS, with high pressure and associated stability dominating the sensible weather. A deepening surface low will continue to shift eastward across the Gulf of Mexico, with strong warm-air advection throughout its warm sector contributing to a broad precipitation field across the Gulf Coast. A few lightning flashes were observed over Acadia Parish in south-central LA over the past hour, but these flashes were most likely created by the self-initiated upward leader process. Given the continuing windy conditions and potential for mixed-phase hydrometeors at low levels, some additional self-initiated flashes are possible throughout the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...20z... No changes were made. Widespread winter precipitation is ongoing along the Gulf Coast. High pressure over the interior of the central CONUS will continue to support very cold, dry and stable conditions with offshore flow. This will negate sufficient buoyancy for thunderstorm potential. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... Expansive high pressure associated with a polar airmass is in place across is in place east of Rockies. This high, which is currently centered over eastern OK/western AR, is expected to shift eastward/northeastward throughout the day, ending the period over the Ohio Valley. Associated cold, dry, and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development. A similar environment is anticipated across the western CONUS, with high pressure and associated stability dominating the sensible weather. A deepening surface low will continue to shift eastward across the Gulf of Mexico, with strong warm-air advection throughout its warm sector contributing to a broad precipitation field across the Gulf Coast. A few lightning flashes were observed over Acadia Parish in south-central LA over the past hour, but these flashes were most likely created by the self-initiated upward leader process. Given the continuing windy conditions and potential for mixed-phase hydrometeors at low levels, some additional self-initiated flashes are possible throughout the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...20z... No changes were made. Widespread winter precipitation is ongoing along the Gulf Coast. High pressure over the interior of the central CONUS will continue to support very cold, dry and stable conditions with offshore flow. This will negate sufficient buoyancy for thunderstorm potential. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... Expansive high pressure associated with a polar airmass is in place across is in place east of Rockies. This high, which is currently centered over eastern OK/western AR, is expected to shift eastward/northeastward throughout the day, ending the period over the Ohio Valley. Associated cold, dry, and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development. A similar environment is anticipated across the western CONUS, with high pressure and associated stability dominating the sensible weather. A deepening surface low will continue to shift eastward across the Gulf of Mexico, with strong warm-air advection throughout its warm sector contributing to a broad precipitation field across the Gulf Coast. A few lightning flashes were observed over Acadia Parish in south-central LA over the past hour, but these flashes were most likely created by the self-initiated upward leader process. Given the continuing windy conditions and potential for mixed-phase hydrometeors at low levels, some additional self-initiated flashes are possible throughout the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...20z... No changes were made. Widespread winter precipitation is ongoing along the Gulf Coast. High pressure over the interior of the central CONUS will continue to support very cold, dry and stable conditions with offshore flow. This will negate sufficient buoyancy for thunderstorm potential. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... Expansive high pressure associated with a polar airmass is in place across is in place east of Rockies. This high, which is currently centered over eastern OK/western AR, is expected to shift eastward/northeastward throughout the day, ending the period over the Ohio Valley. Associated cold, dry, and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development. A similar environment is anticipated across the western CONUS, with high pressure and associated stability dominating the sensible weather. A deepening surface low will continue to shift eastward across the Gulf of Mexico, with strong warm-air advection throughout its warm sector contributing to a broad precipitation field across the Gulf Coast. A few lightning flashes were observed over Acadia Parish in south-central LA over the past hour, but these flashes were most likely created by the self-initiated upward leader process. Given the continuing windy conditions and potential for mixed-phase hydrometeors at low levels, some additional self-initiated flashes are possible throughout the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...20z... No changes were made. Widespread winter precipitation is ongoing along the Gulf Coast. High pressure over the interior of the central CONUS will continue to support very cold, dry and stable conditions with offshore flow. This will negate sufficient buoyancy for thunderstorm potential. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... Expansive high pressure associated with a polar airmass is in place across is in place east of Rockies. This high, which is currently centered over eastern OK/western AR, is expected to shift eastward/northeastward throughout the day, ending the period over the Ohio Valley. Associated cold, dry, and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development. A similar environment is anticipated across the western CONUS, with high pressure and associated stability dominating the sensible weather. A deepening surface low will continue to shift eastward across the Gulf of Mexico, with strong warm-air advection throughout its warm sector contributing to a broad precipitation field across the Gulf Coast. A few lightning flashes were observed over Acadia Parish in south-central LA over the past hour, but these flashes were most likely created by the self-initiated upward leader process. Given the continuing windy conditions and potential for mixed-phase hydrometeors at low levels, some additional self-initiated flashes are possible throughout the period. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A large mid/upper-level trough will persist from the south-central Great Plains into the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as multiple embedded shortwaves move southeastward through the larger-scale trough. Generally dry and stable conditions in the wake of a significant cold intrusion should continue to limit thunderstorm potential through the period. ..Dean.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A large mid/upper-level trough will persist from the south-central Great Plains into the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as multiple embedded shortwaves move southeastward through the larger-scale trough. Generally dry and stable conditions in the wake of a significant cold intrusion should continue to limit thunderstorm potential through the period. ..Dean.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A large mid/upper-level trough will persist from the south-central Great Plains into the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as multiple embedded shortwaves move southeastward through the larger-scale trough. Generally dry and stable conditions in the wake of a significant cold intrusion should continue to limit thunderstorm potential through the period. ..Dean.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A large mid/upper-level trough will persist from the south-central Great Plains into the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as multiple embedded shortwaves move southeastward through the larger-scale trough. Generally dry and stable conditions in the wake of a significant cold intrusion should continue to limit thunderstorm potential through the period. ..Dean.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A large mid/upper-level trough will persist from the south-central Great Plains into the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as multiple embedded shortwaves move southeastward through the larger-scale trough. Generally dry and stable conditions in the wake of a significant cold intrusion should continue to limit thunderstorm potential through the period. ..Dean.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A large mid/upper-level trough will persist from the south-central Great Plains into the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as multiple embedded shortwaves move southeastward through the larger-scale trough. Generally dry and stable conditions in the wake of a significant cold intrusion should continue to limit thunderstorm potential through the period. ..Dean.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A large mid/upper-level trough will persist from the south-central Great Plains into the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as multiple embedded shortwaves move southeastward through the larger-scale trough. Generally dry and stable conditions in the wake of a significant cold intrusion should continue to limit thunderstorm potential through the period. ..Dean.. 01/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A large mid/upper-level trough will persist from the south-central Great Plains into the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as multiple embedded shortwaves move southeastward through the larger-scale trough. Generally dry and stable conditions in the wake of a significant cold intrusion should continue to limit thunderstorm potential through the period. ..Dean.. 01/21/2025 Read more

MD 0048 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0048 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0846 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana...southern Mississippi and far southern Alabama Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 211446Z - 211845Z SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow to continue this morning and through the afternoon. Some blowing and drifting is also expected. DISCUSSION...An expansive region of light to occasionally moderate snow has spread across much of the central Gulf coast this morning. Expect precipitation rates to increase through the late morning and afternoon with widespread moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall rates expected. In addition, some stronger winds, particularly closer to the coast will lead to some blowing and drifting. Areas with northward exposure (ex. southern short of Lake Pontchartrain) may see some localized blizzard conditions through the day. Some mixed precipitation is being observed from southern Terrebonne Parish to southern St. Bernard Parish where a warm nose (seen just below 700mb on the LIX 12Z RAOB) is slightly above freezing. 60 knots of southwesterly flow in this warm nose will attempt to maintain its presence across the region while temperatures aloft continue to cool. Expect the cold air to eventually win out with snow likely across all of southern Louisiana by later this afternoon. ..Bentley.. 01/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 31019159 31519076 31608898 31238781 30798754 30218756 30198828 30138865 29938871 29528885 29078901 28908909 28948999 29049087 29309164 29419195 30419196 31019159 Read more