Aggregator

WW 0008 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 8 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..02/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-013-017-025-027-035-037-041-043-069-077-079-095- 103-107-117-123-139-147-152340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CRITTENDEN CROSS DESHA DREW JEFFERSON LEE LINCOLN MONROE OUACHITA PHILLIPS PRAIRIE ST. FRANCIS UNION WOODRUFF LAC009-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-035-041-043-049-059-061- 065-067-069-073-079-081-083-085-107-111-115-119-123-127- 152340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE AVOYELLES BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALDWELL CATAHOULA CLAIBORNE CONCORDIA DE SOTO EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN GRANT Read more

WW 0008 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 8 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..02/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 8 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-013-017-025-027-035-037-041-043-069-077-079-095- 103-107-117-123-139-147-152340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CRITTENDEN CROSS DESHA DREW JEFFERSON LEE LINCOLN MONROE OUACHITA PHILLIPS PRAIRIE ST. FRANCIS UNION WOODRUFF LAC009-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-035-041-043-049-059-061- 065-067-069-073-079-081-083-085-107-111-115-119-123-127- 152340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE AVOYELLES BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALDWELL CATAHOULA CLAIBORNE CONCORDIA DE SOTO EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN GRANT Read more

WW 8 TORNADO AR LA MS TN TX 152200Z - 160400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 8 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern and Southeast Arkansas Northern and Central Louisiana Northwest Mississippi Western Tennessee East Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1000 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...An intensifying squall line will move generally in a west to east direction through the late evening. The greatest severe risk will be with bowing segments or embedded supercells or mesovortices within the squall line, where damaging gusts are likely and a threat for a tornadoes may exist. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Dyersburg TN to 45 miles south of Natchitoches LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 21055. ...Smith Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 15 21:47:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0098 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0098 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Areas affected...parts of southern and eastern Arkansas and adjacent portions of northwestern Louisiana...northwestern Mississippi and western Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 151906Z - 152200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A corridor of intensifying thunderstorm development appears likely east of the Ark-La-Tex northeastward toward the Greater Memphis vicinity through 4-6 PM CDT. Initially this may include a risk for supercells with potential to produce tornadoes, before storms consolidate into an organizing line. DISCUSSION...A baroclinic zone on the northwestern periphery of warm, moist southerly return flow from the western Gulf has been reinforced by persistent warm advection driven weak convective development. Differential heating is contributing to strengthening of the thermal gradient, and a slow northward advancement of the front at the surface, toward the Memphis TN, Pine Bluff and El Dorado AR vicinities. Surface observations indicate that a focused area of stronger surface pressure falls (2-3+ mb/2 hourly) is already developing to the west/northwest of Little Rock as of 18Z, and models indicate that this boundary will become the focus for strengthening surface cyclogenesis later this afternoon into tonight. Upstream, it appears that a significant approaching short wave trough will maintain a general positive tilt as it progresses eastward across the southern Great Plains into early evening. However, models suggest that increasingly difluent/divergent flow ahead of it will contribute to increasing forcing for ascent along the frontal zone by 21-23Z. Although it is possible that this may remain largely focused above/just to the cool side of the front, there may be a window of opportunity for sufficient weakening of mid-level inhibition, in a narrow corridor just ahead of the front, to support thunderstorm initiation rooted within an unstable boundary-layer characterized by CAPE up to 1000 J/kg. Within this regime, low-level hodographs, beneath 50+ kt south-southwesterly flow around 850 mb, are already sizable and clockwise curved, and conducive to the evolution of strong low-level mesocyclones with the potential to produce tornadoes. ..Kerr/Smith.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 35129106 35688911 34958950 34329039 33089205 32119322 32039392 33049363 33889275 35129106 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Upper-level troughing will deepen over the West Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday. Strong upper-level flow will remain over much of the Southwest and southern High Plains but will turn from westerly to northwesterly during this period. Southerly surface flow will develop across Texas into Oklahoma, but another cold front will push south down the southern Plains and into the Southwest late Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. The front will eventually move through Texas and much of the Southeast by late Day 5/Wednesday. Little to no precipitation is expected for most of the Southwest and southern High Plains into central/south Texas for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest onto southern High Plains... Strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains, with lee troughing on the southern High Plains and a surface low likely in eastern New Mexico on Day 3/Monday. Westerly surface winds amid are likely to reach critical thresholds amid critically low RH in portions of an area from southeast Arizona into southwest Texas on Day 3/Monday where the 40% probability is delineated. Farther north in east-central/northeast New Mexico, another area of critical winds/RH are likely to develop under a 55-65 kt mid-level jet, but guidance indicates fuels are less receptive in this area. On Day 4/Tuesday, a similar environment will continue, but an approaching cold front will limit the spatial and temporal extent of elevated/critical fire weather conditions. There is uncertainty regarding northward/eastward extent of the 40% probabilities on Days 3/4 due to frontal timing and location of the upper-level jet. However, given the near record to record high ERCs for this time of year according to Predictive Services fire danger charts in these areas, future upgrades may be necessary in subsequent outlooks, especially if there is broader overlap of critical winds/RH. ..Nauslar.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Upper-level troughing will deepen over the West Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday. Strong upper-level flow will remain over much of the Southwest and southern High Plains but will turn from westerly to northwesterly during this period. Southerly surface flow will develop across Texas into Oklahoma, but another cold front will push south down the southern Plains and into the Southwest late Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. The front will eventually move through Texas and much of the Southeast by late Day 5/Wednesday. Little to no precipitation is expected for most of the Southwest and southern High Plains into central/south Texas for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest onto southern High Plains... Strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains, with lee troughing on the southern High Plains and a surface low likely in eastern New Mexico on Day 3/Monday. Westerly surface winds amid are likely to reach critical thresholds amid critically low RH in portions of an area from southeast Arizona into southwest Texas on Day 3/Monday where the 40% probability is delineated. Farther north in east-central/northeast New Mexico, another area of critical winds/RH are likely to develop under a 55-65 kt mid-level jet, but guidance indicates fuels are less receptive in this area. On Day 4/Tuesday, a similar environment will continue, but an approaching cold front will limit the spatial and temporal extent of elevated/critical fire weather conditions. There is uncertainty regarding northward/eastward extent of the 40% probabilities on Days 3/4 due to frontal timing and location of the upper-level jet. However, given the near record to record high ERCs for this time of year according to Predictive Services fire danger charts in these areas, future upgrades may be necessary in subsequent outlooks, especially if there is broader overlap of critical winds/RH. ..Nauslar.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Upper-level troughing will deepen over the West Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday. Strong upper-level flow will remain over much of the Southwest and southern High Plains but will turn from westerly to northwesterly during this period. Southerly surface flow will develop across Texas into Oklahoma, but another cold front will push south down the southern Plains and into the Southwest late Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. The front will eventually move through Texas and much of the Southeast by late Day 5/Wednesday. Little to no precipitation is expected for most of the Southwest and southern High Plains into central/south Texas for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest onto southern High Plains... Strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains, with lee troughing on the southern High Plains and a surface low likely in eastern New Mexico on Day 3/Monday. Westerly surface winds amid are likely to reach critical thresholds amid critically low RH in portions of an area from southeast Arizona into southwest Texas on Day 3/Monday where the 40% probability is delineated. Farther north in east-central/northeast New Mexico, another area of critical winds/RH are likely to develop under a 55-65 kt mid-level jet, but guidance indicates fuels are less receptive in this area. On Day 4/Tuesday, a similar environment will continue, but an approaching cold front will limit the spatial and temporal extent of elevated/critical fire weather conditions. There is uncertainty regarding northward/eastward extent of the 40% probabilities on Days 3/4 due to frontal timing and location of the upper-level jet. However, given the near record to record high ERCs for this time of year according to Predictive Services fire danger charts in these areas, future upgrades may be necessary in subsequent outlooks, especially if there is broader overlap of critical winds/RH. ..Nauslar.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Upper-level troughing will deepen over the West Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday. Strong upper-level flow will remain over much of the Southwest and southern High Plains but will turn from westerly to northwesterly during this period. Southerly surface flow will develop across Texas into Oklahoma, but another cold front will push south down the southern Plains and into the Southwest late Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. The front will eventually move through Texas and much of the Southeast by late Day 5/Wednesday. Little to no precipitation is expected for most of the Southwest and southern High Plains into central/south Texas for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest onto southern High Plains... Strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains, with lee troughing on the southern High Plains and a surface low likely in eastern New Mexico on Day 3/Monday. Westerly surface winds amid are likely to reach critical thresholds amid critically low RH in portions of an area from southeast Arizona into southwest Texas on Day 3/Monday where the 40% probability is delineated. Farther north in east-central/northeast New Mexico, another area of critical winds/RH are likely to develop under a 55-65 kt mid-level jet, but guidance indicates fuels are less receptive in this area. On Day 4/Tuesday, a similar environment will continue, but an approaching cold front will limit the spatial and temporal extent of elevated/critical fire weather conditions. There is uncertainty regarding northward/eastward extent of the 40% probabilities on Days 3/4 due to frontal timing and location of the upper-level jet. However, given the near record to record high ERCs for this time of year according to Predictive Services fire danger charts in these areas, future upgrades may be necessary in subsequent outlooks, especially if there is broader overlap of critical winds/RH. ..Nauslar.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Upper-level troughing will deepen over the West Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday. Strong upper-level flow will remain over much of the Southwest and southern High Plains but will turn from westerly to northwesterly during this period. Southerly surface flow will develop across Texas into Oklahoma, but another cold front will push south down the southern Plains and into the Southwest late Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. The front will eventually move through Texas and much of the Southeast by late Day 5/Wednesday. Little to no precipitation is expected for most of the Southwest and southern High Plains into central/south Texas for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest onto southern High Plains... Strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains, with lee troughing on the southern High Plains and a surface low likely in eastern New Mexico on Day 3/Monday. Westerly surface winds amid are likely to reach critical thresholds amid critically low RH in portions of an area from southeast Arizona into southwest Texas on Day 3/Monday where the 40% probability is delineated. Farther north in east-central/northeast New Mexico, another area of critical winds/RH are likely to develop under a 55-65 kt mid-level jet, but guidance indicates fuels are less receptive in this area. On Day 4/Tuesday, a similar environment will continue, but an approaching cold front will limit the spatial and temporal extent of elevated/critical fire weather conditions. There is uncertainty regarding northward/eastward extent of the 40% probabilities on Days 3/4 due to frontal timing and location of the upper-level jet. However, given the near record to record high ERCs for this time of year according to Predictive Services fire danger charts in these areas, future upgrades may be necessary in subsequent outlooks, especially if there is broader overlap of critical winds/RH. ..Nauslar.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Upper-level troughing will deepen over the West Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday. Strong upper-level flow will remain over much of the Southwest and southern High Plains but will turn from westerly to northwesterly during this period. Southerly surface flow will develop across Texas into Oklahoma, but another cold front will push south down the southern Plains and into the Southwest late Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. The front will eventually move through Texas and much of the Southeast by late Day 5/Wednesday. Little to no precipitation is expected for most of the Southwest and southern High Plains into central/south Texas for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest onto southern High Plains... Strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains, with lee troughing on the southern High Plains and a surface low likely in eastern New Mexico on Day 3/Monday. Westerly surface winds amid are likely to reach critical thresholds amid critically low RH in portions of an area from southeast Arizona into southwest Texas on Day 3/Monday where the 40% probability is delineated. Farther north in east-central/northeast New Mexico, another area of critical winds/RH are likely to develop under a 55-65 kt mid-level jet, but guidance indicates fuels are less receptive in this area. On Day 4/Tuesday, a similar environment will continue, but an approaching cold front will limit the spatial and temporal extent of elevated/critical fire weather conditions. There is uncertainty regarding northward/eastward extent of the 40% probabilities on Days 3/4 due to frontal timing and location of the upper-level jet. However, given the near record to record high ERCs for this time of year according to Predictive Services fire danger charts in these areas, future upgrades may be necessary in subsequent outlooks, especially if there is broader overlap of critical winds/RH. ..Nauslar.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Upper-level troughing will deepen over the West Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday. Strong upper-level flow will remain over much of the Southwest and southern High Plains but will turn from westerly to northwesterly during this period. Southerly surface flow will develop across Texas into Oklahoma, but another cold front will push south down the southern Plains and into the Southwest late Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. The front will eventually move through Texas and much of the Southeast by late Day 5/Wednesday. Little to no precipitation is expected for most of the Southwest and southern High Plains into central/south Texas for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest onto southern High Plains... Strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains, with lee troughing on the southern High Plains and a surface low likely in eastern New Mexico on Day 3/Monday. Westerly surface winds amid are likely to reach critical thresholds amid critically low RH in portions of an area from southeast Arizona into southwest Texas on Day 3/Monday where the 40% probability is delineated. Farther north in east-central/northeast New Mexico, another area of critical winds/RH are likely to develop under a 55-65 kt mid-level jet, but guidance indicates fuels are less receptive in this area. On Day 4/Tuesday, a similar environment will continue, but an approaching cold front will limit the spatial and temporal extent of elevated/critical fire weather conditions. There is uncertainty regarding northward/eastward extent of the 40% probabilities on Days 3/4 due to frontal timing and location of the upper-level jet. However, given the near record to record high ERCs for this time of year according to Predictive Services fire danger charts in these areas, future upgrades may be necessary in subsequent outlooks, especially if there is broader overlap of critical winds/RH. ..Nauslar.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Upper-level troughing will deepen over the West Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday. Strong upper-level flow will remain over much of the Southwest and southern High Plains but will turn from westerly to northwesterly during this period. Southerly surface flow will develop across Texas into Oklahoma, but another cold front will push south down the southern Plains and into the Southwest late Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. The front will eventually move through Texas and much of the Southeast by late Day 5/Wednesday. Little to no precipitation is expected for most of the Southwest and southern High Plains into central/south Texas for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest onto southern High Plains... Strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains, with lee troughing on the southern High Plains and a surface low likely in eastern New Mexico on Day 3/Monday. Westerly surface winds amid are likely to reach critical thresholds amid critically low RH in portions of an area from southeast Arizona into southwest Texas on Day 3/Monday where the 40% probability is delineated. Farther north in east-central/northeast New Mexico, another area of critical winds/RH are likely to develop under a 55-65 kt mid-level jet, but guidance indicates fuels are less receptive in this area. On Day 4/Tuesday, a similar environment will continue, but an approaching cold front will limit the spatial and temporal extent of elevated/critical fire weather conditions. There is uncertainty regarding northward/eastward extent of the 40% probabilities on Days 3/4 due to frontal timing and location of the upper-level jet. However, given the near record to record high ERCs for this time of year according to Predictive Services fire danger charts in these areas, future upgrades may be necessary in subsequent outlooks, especially if there is broader overlap of critical winds/RH. ..Nauslar.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Upper-level troughing will deepen over the West Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday. Strong upper-level flow will remain over much of the Southwest and southern High Plains but will turn from westerly to northwesterly during this period. Southerly surface flow will develop across Texas into Oklahoma, but another cold front will push south down the southern Plains and into the Southwest late Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. The front will eventually move through Texas and much of the Southeast by late Day 5/Wednesday. Little to no precipitation is expected for most of the Southwest and southern High Plains into central/south Texas for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest onto southern High Plains... Strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains, with lee troughing on the southern High Plains and a surface low likely in eastern New Mexico on Day 3/Monday. Westerly surface winds amid are likely to reach critical thresholds amid critically low RH in portions of an area from southeast Arizona into southwest Texas on Day 3/Monday where the 40% probability is delineated. Farther north in east-central/northeast New Mexico, another area of critical winds/RH are likely to develop under a 55-65 kt mid-level jet, but guidance indicates fuels are less receptive in this area. On Day 4/Tuesday, a similar environment will continue, but an approaching cold front will limit the spatial and temporal extent of elevated/critical fire weather conditions. There is uncertainty regarding northward/eastward extent of the 40% probabilities on Days 3/4 due to frontal timing and location of the upper-level jet. However, given the near record to record high ERCs for this time of year according to Predictive Services fire danger charts in these areas, future upgrades may be necessary in subsequent outlooks, especially if there is broader overlap of critical winds/RH. ..Nauslar.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Upper-level troughing will deepen over the West Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday. Strong upper-level flow will remain over much of the Southwest and southern High Plains but will turn from westerly to northwesterly during this period. Southerly surface flow will develop across Texas into Oklahoma, but another cold front will push south down the southern Plains and into the Southwest late Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. The front will eventually move through Texas and much of the Southeast by late Day 5/Wednesday. Little to no precipitation is expected for most of the Southwest and southern High Plains into central/south Texas for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest onto southern High Plains... Strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains, with lee troughing on the southern High Plains and a surface low likely in eastern New Mexico on Day 3/Monday. Westerly surface winds amid are likely to reach critical thresholds amid critically low RH in portions of an area from southeast Arizona into southwest Texas on Day 3/Monday where the 40% probability is delineated. Farther north in east-central/northeast New Mexico, another area of critical winds/RH are likely to develop under a 55-65 kt mid-level jet, but guidance indicates fuels are less receptive in this area. On Day 4/Tuesday, a similar environment will continue, but an approaching cold front will limit the spatial and temporal extent of elevated/critical fire weather conditions. There is uncertainty regarding northward/eastward extent of the 40% probabilities on Days 3/4 due to frontal timing and location of the upper-level jet. However, given the near record to record high ERCs for this time of year according to Predictive Services fire danger charts in these areas, future upgrades may be necessary in subsequent outlooks, especially if there is broader overlap of critical winds/RH. ..Nauslar.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Upper-level troughing will deepen over the West Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday. Strong upper-level flow will remain over much of the Southwest and southern High Plains but will turn from westerly to northwesterly during this period. Southerly surface flow will develop across Texas into Oklahoma, but another cold front will push south down the southern Plains and into the Southwest late Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. The front will eventually move through Texas and much of the Southeast by late Day 5/Wednesday. Little to no precipitation is expected for most of the Southwest and southern High Plains into central/south Texas for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest onto southern High Plains... Strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains, with lee troughing on the southern High Plains and a surface low likely in eastern New Mexico on Day 3/Monday. Westerly surface winds amid are likely to reach critical thresholds amid critically low RH in portions of an area from southeast Arizona into southwest Texas on Day 3/Monday where the 40% probability is delineated. Farther north in east-central/northeast New Mexico, another area of critical winds/RH are likely to develop under a 55-65 kt mid-level jet, but guidance indicates fuels are less receptive in this area. On Day 4/Tuesday, a similar environment will continue, but an approaching cold front will limit the spatial and temporal extent of elevated/critical fire weather conditions. There is uncertainty regarding northward/eastward extent of the 40% probabilities on Days 3/4 due to frontal timing and location of the upper-level jet. However, given the near record to record high ERCs for this time of year according to Predictive Services fire danger charts in these areas, future upgrades may be necessary in subsequent outlooks, especially if there is broader overlap of critical winds/RH. ..Nauslar.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Upper-level troughing will deepen over the West Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday. Strong upper-level flow will remain over much of the Southwest and southern High Plains but will turn from westerly to northwesterly during this period. Southerly surface flow will develop across Texas into Oklahoma, but another cold front will push south down the southern Plains and into the Southwest late Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. The front will eventually move through Texas and much of the Southeast by late Day 5/Wednesday. Little to no precipitation is expected for most of the Southwest and southern High Plains into central/south Texas for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest onto southern High Plains... Strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains, with lee troughing on the southern High Plains and a surface low likely in eastern New Mexico on Day 3/Monday. Westerly surface winds amid are likely to reach critical thresholds amid critically low RH in portions of an area from southeast Arizona into southwest Texas on Day 3/Monday where the 40% probability is delineated. Farther north in east-central/northeast New Mexico, another area of critical winds/RH are likely to develop under a 55-65 kt mid-level jet, but guidance indicates fuels are less receptive in this area. On Day 4/Tuesday, a similar environment will continue, but an approaching cold front will limit the spatial and temporal extent of elevated/critical fire weather conditions. There is uncertainty regarding northward/eastward extent of the 40% probabilities on Days 3/4 due to frontal timing and location of the upper-level jet. However, given the near record to record high ERCs for this time of year according to Predictive Services fire danger charts in these areas, future upgrades may be necessary in subsequent outlooks, especially if there is broader overlap of critical winds/RH. ..Nauslar.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Upper-level troughing will deepen over the West Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday. Strong upper-level flow will remain over much of the Southwest and southern High Plains but will turn from westerly to northwesterly during this period. Southerly surface flow will develop across Texas into Oklahoma, but another cold front will push south down the southern Plains and into the Southwest late Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. The front will eventually move through Texas and much of the Southeast by late Day 5/Wednesday. Little to no precipitation is expected for most of the Southwest and southern High Plains into central/south Texas for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest onto southern High Plains... Strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains, with lee troughing on the southern High Plains and a surface low likely in eastern New Mexico on Day 3/Monday. Westerly surface winds amid are likely to reach critical thresholds amid critically low RH in portions of an area from southeast Arizona into southwest Texas on Day 3/Monday where the 40% probability is delineated. Farther north in east-central/northeast New Mexico, another area of critical winds/RH are likely to develop under a 55-65 kt mid-level jet, but guidance indicates fuels are less receptive in this area. On Day 4/Tuesday, a similar environment will continue, but an approaching cold front will limit the spatial and temporal extent of elevated/critical fire weather conditions. There is uncertainty regarding northward/eastward extent of the 40% probabilities on Days 3/4 due to frontal timing and location of the upper-level jet. However, given the near record to record high ERCs for this time of year according to Predictive Services fire danger charts in these areas, future upgrades may be necessary in subsequent outlooks, especially if there is broader overlap of critical winds/RH. ..Nauslar.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Upper-level troughing will deepen over the West Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday. Strong upper-level flow will remain over much of the Southwest and southern High Plains but will turn from westerly to northwesterly during this period. Southerly surface flow will develop across Texas into Oklahoma, but another cold front will push south down the southern Plains and into the Southwest late Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. The front will eventually move through Texas and much of the Southeast by late Day 5/Wednesday. Little to no precipitation is expected for most of the Southwest and southern High Plains into central/south Texas for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest onto southern High Plains... Strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains, with lee troughing on the southern High Plains and a surface low likely in eastern New Mexico on Day 3/Monday. Westerly surface winds amid are likely to reach critical thresholds amid critically low RH in portions of an area from southeast Arizona into southwest Texas on Day 3/Monday where the 40% probability is delineated. Farther north in east-central/northeast New Mexico, another area of critical winds/RH are likely to develop under a 55-65 kt mid-level jet, but guidance indicates fuels are less receptive in this area. On Day 4/Tuesday, a similar environment will continue, but an approaching cold front will limit the spatial and temporal extent of elevated/critical fire weather conditions. There is uncertainty regarding northward/eastward extent of the 40% probabilities on Days 3/4 due to frontal timing and location of the upper-level jet. However, given the near record to record high ERCs for this time of year according to Predictive Services fire danger charts in these areas, future upgrades may be necessary in subsequent outlooks, especially if there is broader overlap of critical winds/RH. ..Nauslar.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Upper-level troughing will deepen over the West Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday. Strong upper-level flow will remain over much of the Southwest and southern High Plains but will turn from westerly to northwesterly during this period. Southerly surface flow will develop across Texas into Oklahoma, but another cold front will push south down the southern Plains and into the Southwest late Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. The front will eventually move through Texas and much of the Southeast by late Day 5/Wednesday. Little to no precipitation is expected for most of the Southwest and southern High Plains into central/south Texas for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Southwest onto southern High Plains... Strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains, with lee troughing on the southern High Plains and a surface low likely in eastern New Mexico on Day 3/Monday. Westerly surface winds amid are likely to reach critical thresholds amid critically low RH in portions of an area from southeast Arizona into southwest Texas on Day 3/Monday where the 40% probability is delineated. Farther north in east-central/northeast New Mexico, another area of critical winds/RH are likely to develop under a 55-65 kt mid-level jet, but guidance indicates fuels are less receptive in this area. On Day 4/Tuesday, a similar environment will continue, but an approaching cold front will limit the spatial and temporal extent of elevated/critical fire weather conditions. There is uncertainty regarding northward/eastward extent of the 40% probabilities on Days 3/4 due to frontal timing and location of the upper-level jet. However, given the near record to record high ERCs for this time of year according to Predictive Services fire danger charts in these areas, future upgrades may be necessary in subsequent outlooks, especially if there is broader overlap of critical winds/RH. ..Nauslar.. 02/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more