Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The primary change with this update was the addition of an Elevated area over portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Here, the latest surface observations show RH dropping into the lower/middle 30-percent range (and upper 20 percent over parts of southern NJ) amid increasingly breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds. Given several days of fuels drying, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected through this afternoon. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A few areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected today, though a few factors in each area are keeping the overall fire-danger threat limited. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... As a surface low tracks along the Gulf Coast and consequently a cold front moves offshore, winds of 15-20 MPH are expected across far south-central Texas during the afternoon and early evening. High-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values on the higher side of 25-30%, but given generally receptive fuels and a lack of recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... West-southwesterly surface winds beneath a mid-level ridge will result in some warming and drying across portions of the Northern Great Plains, particularly north-central South Dakota into southern North Dakota. Relative humidity values are expected to be within the range of 15-20%, and although current ERC fuels guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, the region has generally been absent of rainfall and fine fuels should be sufficiently cured for at least some wildfire threat. Given the uncertainty with the fuels, only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Mid Atlantic... High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests some low-end probabilities of Elevated conditions across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, northeastern Maryland, and Delaware. Winds of 15-20 MPH are consistent across the HREF ensemble, but there are only a few members with relative humidity values below 30%. Pending future forecast guidance and local fuels information, introduction of Elevated highlights may be warranted in the next update. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The primary change with this update was the addition of an Elevated area over portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Here, the latest surface observations show RH dropping into the lower/middle 30-percent range (and upper 20 percent over parts of southern NJ) amid increasingly breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds. Given several days of fuels drying, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected through this afternoon. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A few areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected today, though a few factors in each area are keeping the overall fire-danger threat limited. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... As a surface low tracks along the Gulf Coast and consequently a cold front moves offshore, winds of 15-20 MPH are expected across far south-central Texas during the afternoon and early evening. High-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values on the higher side of 25-30%, but given generally receptive fuels and a lack of recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... West-southwesterly surface winds beneath a mid-level ridge will result in some warming and drying across portions of the Northern Great Plains, particularly north-central South Dakota into southern North Dakota. Relative humidity values are expected to be within the range of 15-20%, and although current ERC fuels guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, the region has generally been absent of rainfall and fine fuels should be sufficiently cured for at least some wildfire threat. Given the uncertainty with the fuels, only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Mid Atlantic... High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests some low-end probabilities of Elevated conditions across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, northeastern Maryland, and Delaware. Winds of 15-20 MPH are consistent across the HREF ensemble, but there are only a few members with relative humidity values below 30%. Pending future forecast guidance and local fuels information, introduction of Elevated highlights may be warranted in the next update. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The primary change with this update was the addition of an Elevated area over portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Here, the latest surface observations show RH dropping into the lower/middle 30-percent range (and upper 20 percent over parts of southern NJ) amid increasingly breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds. Given several days of fuels drying, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected through this afternoon. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A few areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected today, though a few factors in each area are keeping the overall fire-danger threat limited. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... As a surface low tracks along the Gulf Coast and consequently a cold front moves offshore, winds of 15-20 MPH are expected across far south-central Texas during the afternoon and early evening. High-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values on the higher side of 25-30%, but given generally receptive fuels and a lack of recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... West-southwesterly surface winds beneath a mid-level ridge will result in some warming and drying across portions of the Northern Great Plains, particularly north-central South Dakota into southern North Dakota. Relative humidity values are expected to be within the range of 15-20%, and although current ERC fuels guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, the region has generally been absent of rainfall and fine fuels should be sufficiently cured for at least some wildfire threat. Given the uncertainty with the fuels, only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Mid Atlantic... High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests some low-end probabilities of Elevated conditions across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, northeastern Maryland, and Delaware. Winds of 15-20 MPH are consistent across the HREF ensemble, but there are only a few members with relative humidity values below 30%. Pending future forecast guidance and local fuels information, introduction of Elevated highlights may be warranted in the next update. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The primary change with this update was the addition of an Elevated area over portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Here, the latest surface observations show RH dropping into the lower/middle 30-percent range (and upper 20 percent over parts of southern NJ) amid increasingly breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds. Given several days of fuels drying, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected through this afternoon. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A few areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected today, though a few factors in each area are keeping the overall fire-danger threat limited. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... As a surface low tracks along the Gulf Coast and consequently a cold front moves offshore, winds of 15-20 MPH are expected across far south-central Texas during the afternoon and early evening. High-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values on the higher side of 25-30%, but given generally receptive fuels and a lack of recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... West-southwesterly surface winds beneath a mid-level ridge will result in some warming and drying across portions of the Northern Great Plains, particularly north-central South Dakota into southern North Dakota. Relative humidity values are expected to be within the range of 15-20%, and although current ERC fuels guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, the region has generally been absent of rainfall and fine fuels should be sufficiently cured for at least some wildfire threat. Given the uncertainty with the fuels, only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Mid Atlantic... High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests some low-end probabilities of Elevated conditions across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, northeastern Maryland, and Delaware. Winds of 15-20 MPH are consistent across the HREF ensemble, but there are only a few members with relative humidity values below 30%. Pending future forecast guidance and local fuels information, introduction of Elevated highlights may be warranted in the next update. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The primary change with this update was the addition of an Elevated area over portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Here, the latest surface observations show RH dropping into the lower/middle 30-percent range (and upper 20 percent over parts of southern NJ) amid increasingly breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds. Given several days of fuels drying, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected through this afternoon. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A few areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected today, though a few factors in each area are keeping the overall fire-danger threat limited. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... As a surface low tracks along the Gulf Coast and consequently a cold front moves offshore, winds of 15-20 MPH are expected across far south-central Texas during the afternoon and early evening. High-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values on the higher side of 25-30%, but given generally receptive fuels and a lack of recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... West-southwesterly surface winds beneath a mid-level ridge will result in some warming and drying across portions of the Northern Great Plains, particularly north-central South Dakota into southern North Dakota. Relative humidity values are expected to be within the range of 15-20%, and although current ERC fuels guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, the region has generally been absent of rainfall and fine fuels should be sufficiently cured for at least some wildfire threat. Given the uncertainty with the fuels, only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Mid Atlantic... High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests some low-end probabilities of Elevated conditions across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, northeastern Maryland, and Delaware. Winds of 15-20 MPH are consistent across the HREF ensemble, but there are only a few members with relative humidity values below 30%. Pending future forecast guidance and local fuels information, introduction of Elevated highlights may be warranted in the next update. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The primary change with this update was the addition of an Elevated area over portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Here, the latest surface observations show RH dropping into the lower/middle 30-percent range (and upper 20 percent over parts of southern NJ) amid increasingly breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds. Given several days of fuels drying, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected through this afternoon. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A few areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected today, though a few factors in each area are keeping the overall fire-danger threat limited. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... As a surface low tracks along the Gulf Coast and consequently a cold front moves offshore, winds of 15-20 MPH are expected across far south-central Texas during the afternoon and early evening. High-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values on the higher side of 25-30%, but given generally receptive fuels and a lack of recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... West-southwesterly surface winds beneath a mid-level ridge will result in some warming and drying across portions of the Northern Great Plains, particularly north-central South Dakota into southern North Dakota. Relative humidity values are expected to be within the range of 15-20%, and although current ERC fuels guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, the region has generally been absent of rainfall and fine fuels should be sufficiently cured for at least some wildfire threat. Given the uncertainty with the fuels, only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Mid Atlantic... High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests some low-end probabilities of Elevated conditions across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, northeastern Maryland, and Delaware. Winds of 15-20 MPH are consistent across the HREF ensemble, but there are only a few members with relative humidity values below 30%. Pending future forecast guidance and local fuels information, introduction of Elevated highlights may be warranted in the next update. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from parts of northern/central Florida into southern Alabama/Georgia. ...Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will continue to move eastward over the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States through tonight. A related weak surface low near the mouth of the MS River late this morning will likewise develop eastward along/near the AL/FL Gulf Coast, with a stalled front extending eastward from this low over northern FL. Multiple small thunderstorms and clusters are ongoing across the FL Panhandle and northern FL. Most of this activity is occurring along/north of the convectively reinforced boundary. While strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support supercells, this convection is generally expected to remain elevated, with mainly a marginal severe hail threat given modestly steepened mid-lapse rates and weak but sufficient MUCAPE. An isolated hail risk may also exist with convection well north of the surface boundary into parts of southern MS/AL. The Marginal Risk for hail has been expanded a little westward and northward in AL/GA to account for a couple supercells that may develop later this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm clusters may also form/consolidate along/south of the front in north/central FL through tonight. While lapse rates aloft will remain more modest with southward extent, gradually increasing low-level moisture and modest daytime heating should allow for modest destabilization through the late afternoon. Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur with any surface-based thunderstorms, and a brief tornado also appears possible through tonight as low-level southwesterly flow gradually strengthens with the approach of the upper trough. Overall, severe potential across the Southeast should tend to remain fairly isolated through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from parts of northern/central Florida into southern Alabama/Georgia. ...Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will continue to move eastward over the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States through tonight. A related weak surface low near the mouth of the MS River late this morning will likewise develop eastward along/near the AL/FL Gulf Coast, with a stalled front extending eastward from this low over northern FL. Multiple small thunderstorms and clusters are ongoing across the FL Panhandle and northern FL. Most of this activity is occurring along/north of the convectively reinforced boundary. While strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support supercells, this convection is generally expected to remain elevated, with mainly a marginal severe hail threat given modestly steepened mid-lapse rates and weak but sufficient MUCAPE. An isolated hail risk may also exist with convection well north of the surface boundary into parts of southern MS/AL. The Marginal Risk for hail has been expanded a little westward and northward in AL/GA to account for a couple supercells that may develop later this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm clusters may also form/consolidate along/south of the front in north/central FL through tonight. While lapse rates aloft will remain more modest with southward extent, gradually increasing low-level moisture and modest daytime heating should allow for modest destabilization through the late afternoon. Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur with any surface-based thunderstorms, and a brief tornado also appears possible through tonight as low-level southwesterly flow gradually strengthens with the approach of the upper trough. Overall, severe potential across the Southeast should tend to remain fairly isolated through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from parts of northern/central Florida into southern Alabama/Georgia. ...Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will continue to move eastward over the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States through tonight. A related weak surface low near the mouth of the MS River late this morning will likewise develop eastward along/near the AL/FL Gulf Coast, with a stalled front extending eastward from this low over northern FL. Multiple small thunderstorms and clusters are ongoing across the FL Panhandle and northern FL. Most of this activity is occurring along/north of the convectively reinforced boundary. While strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support supercells, this convection is generally expected to remain elevated, with mainly a marginal severe hail threat given modestly steepened mid-lapse rates and weak but sufficient MUCAPE. An isolated hail risk may also exist with convection well north of the surface boundary into parts of southern MS/AL. The Marginal Risk for hail has been expanded a little westward and northward in AL/GA to account for a couple supercells that may develop later this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm clusters may also form/consolidate along/south of the front in north/central FL through tonight. While lapse rates aloft will remain more modest with southward extent, gradually increasing low-level moisture and modest daytime heating should allow for modest destabilization through the late afternoon. Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur with any surface-based thunderstorms, and a brief tornado also appears possible through tonight as low-level southwesterly flow gradually strengthens with the approach of the upper trough. Overall, severe potential across the Southeast should tend to remain fairly isolated through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from parts of northern/central Florida into southern Alabama/Georgia. ...Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will continue to move eastward over the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States through tonight. A related weak surface low near the mouth of the MS River late this morning will likewise develop eastward along/near the AL/FL Gulf Coast, with a stalled front extending eastward from this low over northern FL. Multiple small thunderstorms and clusters are ongoing across the FL Panhandle and northern FL. Most of this activity is occurring along/north of the convectively reinforced boundary. While strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support supercells, this convection is generally expected to remain elevated, with mainly a marginal severe hail threat given modestly steepened mid-lapse rates and weak but sufficient MUCAPE. An isolated hail risk may also exist with convection well north of the surface boundary into parts of southern MS/AL. The Marginal Risk for hail has been expanded a little westward and northward in AL/GA to account for a couple supercells that may develop later this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm clusters may also form/consolidate along/south of the front in north/central FL through tonight. While lapse rates aloft will remain more modest with southward extent, gradually increasing low-level moisture and modest daytime heating should allow for modest destabilization through the late afternoon. Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur with any surface-based thunderstorms, and a brief tornado also appears possible through tonight as low-level southwesterly flow gradually strengthens with the approach of the upper trough. Overall, severe potential across the Southeast should tend to remain fairly isolated through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from parts of northern/central Florida into southern Alabama/Georgia. ...Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will continue to move eastward over the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States through tonight. A related weak surface low near the mouth of the MS River late this morning will likewise develop eastward along/near the AL/FL Gulf Coast, with a stalled front extending eastward from this low over northern FL. Multiple small thunderstorms and clusters are ongoing across the FL Panhandle and northern FL. Most of this activity is occurring along/north of the convectively reinforced boundary. While strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support supercells, this convection is generally expected to remain elevated, with mainly a marginal severe hail threat given modestly steepened mid-lapse rates and weak but sufficient MUCAPE. An isolated hail risk may also exist with convection well north of the surface boundary into parts of southern MS/AL. The Marginal Risk for hail has been expanded a little westward and northward in AL/GA to account for a couple supercells that may develop later this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm clusters may also form/consolidate along/south of the front in north/central FL through tonight. While lapse rates aloft will remain more modest with southward extent, gradually increasing low-level moisture and modest daytime heating should allow for modest destabilization through the late afternoon. Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur with any surface-based thunderstorms, and a brief tornado also appears possible through tonight as low-level southwesterly flow gradually strengthens with the approach of the upper trough. Overall, severe potential across the Southeast should tend to remain fairly isolated through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from parts of northern/central Florida into southern Alabama/Georgia. ...Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will continue to move eastward over the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States through tonight. A related weak surface low near the mouth of the MS River late this morning will likewise develop eastward along/near the AL/FL Gulf Coast, with a stalled front extending eastward from this low over northern FL. Multiple small thunderstorms and clusters are ongoing across the FL Panhandle and northern FL. Most of this activity is occurring along/north of the convectively reinforced boundary. While strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support supercells, this convection is generally expected to remain elevated, with mainly a marginal severe hail threat given modestly steepened mid-lapse rates and weak but sufficient MUCAPE. An isolated hail risk may also exist with convection well north of the surface boundary into parts of southern MS/AL. The Marginal Risk for hail has been expanded a little westward and northward in AL/GA to account for a couple supercells that may develop later this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm clusters may also form/consolidate along/south of the front in north/central FL through tonight. While lapse rates aloft will remain more modest with southward extent, gradually increasing low-level moisture and modest daytime heating should allow for modest destabilization through the late afternoon. Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur with any surface-based thunderstorms, and a brief tornado also appears possible through tonight as low-level southwesterly flow gradually strengthens with the approach of the upper trough. Overall, severe potential across the Southeast should tend to remain fairly isolated through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from parts of northern/central Florida into southern Alabama/Georgia. ...Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will continue to move eastward over the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States through tonight. A related weak surface low near the mouth of the MS River late this morning will likewise develop eastward along/near the AL/FL Gulf Coast, with a stalled front extending eastward from this low over northern FL. Multiple small thunderstorms and clusters are ongoing across the FL Panhandle and northern FL. Most of this activity is occurring along/north of the convectively reinforced boundary. While strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support supercells, this convection is generally expected to remain elevated, with mainly a marginal severe hail threat given modestly steepened mid-lapse rates and weak but sufficient MUCAPE. An isolated hail risk may also exist with convection well north of the surface boundary into parts of southern MS/AL. The Marginal Risk for hail has been expanded a little westward and northward in AL/GA to account for a couple supercells that may develop later this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm clusters may also form/consolidate along/south of the front in north/central FL through tonight. While lapse rates aloft will remain more modest with southward extent, gradually increasing low-level moisture and modest daytime heating should allow for modest destabilization through the late afternoon. Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur with any surface-based thunderstorms, and a brief tornado also appears possible through tonight as low-level southwesterly flow gradually strengthens with the approach of the upper trough. Overall, severe potential across the Southeast should tend to remain fairly isolated through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from parts of northern/central Florida into southern Alabama/Georgia. ...Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will continue to move eastward over the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States through tonight. A related weak surface low near the mouth of the MS River late this morning will likewise develop eastward along/near the AL/FL Gulf Coast, with a stalled front extending eastward from this low over northern FL. Multiple small thunderstorms and clusters are ongoing across the FL Panhandle and northern FL. Most of this activity is occurring along/north of the convectively reinforced boundary. While strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support supercells, this convection is generally expected to remain elevated, with mainly a marginal severe hail threat given modestly steepened mid-lapse rates and weak but sufficient MUCAPE. An isolated hail risk may also exist with convection well north of the surface boundary into parts of southern MS/AL. The Marginal Risk for hail has been expanded a little westward and northward in AL/GA to account for a couple supercells that may develop later this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm clusters may also form/consolidate along/south of the front in north/central FL through tonight. While lapse rates aloft will remain more modest with southward extent, gradually increasing low-level moisture and modest daytime heating should allow for modest destabilization through the late afternoon. Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur with any surface-based thunderstorms, and a brief tornado also appears possible through tonight as low-level southwesterly flow gradually strengthens with the approach of the upper trough. Overall, severe potential across the Southeast should tend to remain fairly isolated through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from parts of northern/central Florida into southern Alabama/Georgia. ...Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will continue to move eastward over the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States through tonight. A related weak surface low near the mouth of the MS River late this morning will likewise develop eastward along/near the AL/FL Gulf Coast, with a stalled front extending eastward from this low over northern FL. Multiple small thunderstorms and clusters are ongoing across the FL Panhandle and northern FL. Most of this activity is occurring along/north of the convectively reinforced boundary. While strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support supercells, this convection is generally expected to remain elevated, with mainly a marginal severe hail threat given modestly steepened mid-lapse rates and weak but sufficient MUCAPE. An isolated hail risk may also exist with convection well north of the surface boundary into parts of southern MS/AL. The Marginal Risk for hail has been expanded a little westward and northward in AL/GA to account for a couple supercells that may develop later this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm clusters may also form/consolidate along/south of the front in north/central FL through tonight. While lapse rates aloft will remain more modest with southward extent, gradually increasing low-level moisture and modest daytime heating should allow for modest destabilization through the late afternoon. Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur with any surface-based thunderstorms, and a brief tornado also appears possible through tonight as low-level southwesterly flow gradually strengthens with the approach of the upper trough. Overall, severe potential across the Southeast should tend to remain fairly isolated through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND THE PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida... Morning surface analysis places a low near the mouth of the MS River and a maritime front draped east over the continental shelf waters south of the FL Panhandle. A lead mid-level shortwave trough, evident in early morning water-vapor imagery, is moving east along the central Gulf Coast. Farther upstream over AR-OK-TX, a mid-level low and associated positive-tilt trough are forecast to move east-southeastward into southern AL and the northern Gulf of America. Episodic scattered showers/thunderstorms are forecast in the vicinity or north of the west-east oriented frontal zone. Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to the south of the front, where weak instability (200-800 J/kg MLCAPE) and strong deep-layer shear (45-55 kt effective shear) are forecast. A mix of a few strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms, in the form of weak supercell structures and organized linear bands, will be capable of isolated 55-70 mph gusts, perhaps a risk for a brief tornado, and marginally severe hail (up to 1.25 inches in diameter). A gradual waning of the severe risk is forecast by late evening. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND THE PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida... Morning surface analysis places a low near the mouth of the MS River and a maritime front draped east over the continental shelf waters south of the FL Panhandle. A lead mid-level shortwave trough, evident in early morning water-vapor imagery, is moving east along the central Gulf Coast. Farther upstream over AR-OK-TX, a mid-level low and associated positive-tilt trough are forecast to move east-southeastward into southern AL and the northern Gulf of America. Episodic scattered showers/thunderstorms are forecast in the vicinity or north of the west-east oriented frontal zone. Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to the south of the front, where weak instability (200-800 J/kg MLCAPE) and strong deep-layer shear (45-55 kt effective shear) are forecast. A mix of a few strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms, in the form of weak supercell structures and organized linear bands, will be capable of isolated 55-70 mph gusts, perhaps a risk for a brief tornado, and marginally severe hail (up to 1.25 inches in diameter). A gradual waning of the severe risk is forecast by late evening. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND THE PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida... Morning surface analysis places a low near the mouth of the MS River and a maritime front draped east over the continental shelf waters south of the FL Panhandle. A lead mid-level shortwave trough, evident in early morning water-vapor imagery, is moving east along the central Gulf Coast. Farther upstream over AR-OK-TX, a mid-level low and associated positive-tilt trough are forecast to move east-southeastward into southern AL and the northern Gulf of America. Episodic scattered showers/thunderstorms are forecast in the vicinity or north of the west-east oriented frontal zone. Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to the south of the front, where weak instability (200-800 J/kg MLCAPE) and strong deep-layer shear (45-55 kt effective shear) are forecast. A mix of a few strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms, in the form of weak supercell structures and organized linear bands, will be capable of isolated 55-70 mph gusts, perhaps a risk for a brief tornado, and marginally severe hail (up to 1.25 inches in diameter). A gradual waning of the severe risk is forecast by late evening. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND THE PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida... Morning surface analysis places a low near the mouth of the MS River and a maritime front draped east over the continental shelf waters south of the FL Panhandle. A lead mid-level shortwave trough, evident in early morning water-vapor imagery, is moving east along the central Gulf Coast. Farther upstream over AR-OK-TX, a mid-level low and associated positive-tilt trough are forecast to move east-southeastward into southern AL and the northern Gulf of America. Episodic scattered showers/thunderstorms are forecast in the vicinity or north of the west-east oriented frontal zone. Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to the south of the front, where weak instability (200-800 J/kg MLCAPE) and strong deep-layer shear (45-55 kt effective shear) are forecast. A mix of a few strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms, in the form of weak supercell structures and organized linear bands, will be capable of isolated 55-70 mph gusts, perhaps a risk for a brief tornado, and marginally severe hail (up to 1.25 inches in diameter). A gradual waning of the severe risk is forecast by late evening. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND THE PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida... Morning surface analysis places a low near the mouth of the MS River and a maritime front draped east over the continental shelf waters south of the FL Panhandle. A lead mid-level shortwave trough, evident in early morning water-vapor imagery, is moving east along the central Gulf Coast. Farther upstream over AR-OK-TX, a mid-level low and associated positive-tilt trough are forecast to move east-southeastward into southern AL and the northern Gulf of America. Episodic scattered showers/thunderstorms are forecast in the vicinity or north of the west-east oriented frontal zone. Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to the south of the front, where weak instability (200-800 J/kg MLCAPE) and strong deep-layer shear (45-55 kt effective shear) are forecast. A mix of a few strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms, in the form of weak supercell structures and organized linear bands, will be capable of isolated 55-70 mph gusts, perhaps a risk for a brief tornado, and marginally severe hail (up to 1.25 inches in diameter). A gradual waning of the severe risk is forecast by late evening. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/09/2025 Read more