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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts will continue across the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon. ...20z Update... The Marginal risk area was reduced across central Florida with this update with the passage of the front. Some severe risk continues across portions of the southern Florida peninsula where temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to 80s with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg remaining ahead of the front. In addition, deep layer flow remains strong as the mid-level wave continues to move across the peninsula, which may support instance of a stronger storm or two capable of damaging wind. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 03/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025/ ...Central/Southern FL Peninsula... Recent surface analysis places a low just off the GA Coast, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across far southeast GA and western north FL into the northeastern Gulf. A relatively broad surface trough (and modest wind shift) exists ahead of this front across the central FL Peninsula. Thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the area of low-level confluence and moisture convergence, which extends well offshore. The downstream airmass across central and southern FL is currently characterized by temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and dewpoints in the low 70s. Overall buoyancy within these warm and moist conditions is currently mitigated somewhat by warm temperatures aloft, which were sampled well by the 12Z MFL sounding. Even so, enough boundary-layer warming appears likely throughout the day to maintain modest destabilization within at least a narrow corridor of higher pre-frontal moisture content. Continued thunderstorm development is anticipated within this corridor as it gradually shifts southward/southeastward this afternoon and evening. Strong low to mid-level flow will persist across the peninsula, with a resulting persistence of deep-layer vertical shear. As such, the environment will remain favorable for isolated to widely scattered supercell development. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk from these storms. Modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs suggest a short-lived tornado or two is also possible throughout the day, but these hodographs are forecast to shrink with southern extent as surface to 850 mb flow veers to a more westerly component and begins to weaken some. As mentioned in the recently issued MCD #0161, the near coastal areas between Palm Beach and Vero Beach appear to have the greatest (although still relatively low) tornado risk this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts will continue across the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon. ...20z Update... The Marginal risk area was reduced across central Florida with this update with the passage of the front. Some severe risk continues across portions of the southern Florida peninsula where temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to 80s with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg remaining ahead of the front. In addition, deep layer flow remains strong as the mid-level wave continues to move across the peninsula, which may support instance of a stronger storm or two capable of damaging wind. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 03/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025/ ...Central/Southern FL Peninsula... Recent surface analysis places a low just off the GA Coast, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across far southeast GA and western north FL into the northeastern Gulf. A relatively broad surface trough (and modest wind shift) exists ahead of this front across the central FL Peninsula. Thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the area of low-level confluence and moisture convergence, which extends well offshore. The downstream airmass across central and southern FL is currently characterized by temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and dewpoints in the low 70s. Overall buoyancy within these warm and moist conditions is currently mitigated somewhat by warm temperatures aloft, which were sampled well by the 12Z MFL sounding. Even so, enough boundary-layer warming appears likely throughout the day to maintain modest destabilization within at least a narrow corridor of higher pre-frontal moisture content. Continued thunderstorm development is anticipated within this corridor as it gradually shifts southward/southeastward this afternoon and evening. Strong low to mid-level flow will persist across the peninsula, with a resulting persistence of deep-layer vertical shear. As such, the environment will remain favorable for isolated to widely scattered supercell development. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk from these storms. Modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs suggest a short-lived tornado or two is also possible throughout the day, but these hodographs are forecast to shrink with southern extent as surface to 850 mb flow veers to a more westerly component and begins to weaken some. As mentioned in the recently issued MCD #0161, the near coastal areas between Palm Beach and Vero Beach appear to have the greatest (although still relatively low) tornado risk this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts will continue across the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon. ...20z Update... The Marginal risk area was reduced across central Florida with this update with the passage of the front. Some severe risk continues across portions of the southern Florida peninsula where temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to 80s with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg remaining ahead of the front. In addition, deep layer flow remains strong as the mid-level wave continues to move across the peninsula, which may support instance of a stronger storm or two capable of damaging wind. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 03/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025/ ...Central/Southern FL Peninsula... Recent surface analysis places a low just off the GA Coast, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across far southeast GA and western north FL into the northeastern Gulf. A relatively broad surface trough (and modest wind shift) exists ahead of this front across the central FL Peninsula. Thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the area of low-level confluence and moisture convergence, which extends well offshore. The downstream airmass across central and southern FL is currently characterized by temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and dewpoints in the low 70s. Overall buoyancy within these warm and moist conditions is currently mitigated somewhat by warm temperatures aloft, which were sampled well by the 12Z MFL sounding. Even so, enough boundary-layer warming appears likely throughout the day to maintain modest destabilization within at least a narrow corridor of higher pre-frontal moisture content. Continued thunderstorm development is anticipated within this corridor as it gradually shifts southward/southeastward this afternoon and evening. Strong low to mid-level flow will persist across the peninsula, with a resulting persistence of deep-layer vertical shear. As such, the environment will remain favorable for isolated to widely scattered supercell development. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk from these storms. Modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs suggest a short-lived tornado or two is also possible throughout the day, but these hodographs are forecast to shrink with southern extent as surface to 850 mb flow veers to a more westerly component and begins to weaken some. As mentioned in the recently issued MCD #0161, the near coastal areas between Palm Beach and Vero Beach appear to have the greatest (although still relatively low) tornado risk this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts will continue across the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon. ...20z Update... The Marginal risk area was reduced across central Florida with this update with the passage of the front. Some severe risk continues across portions of the southern Florida peninsula where temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to 80s with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg remaining ahead of the front. In addition, deep layer flow remains strong as the mid-level wave continues to move across the peninsula, which may support instance of a stronger storm or two capable of damaging wind. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 03/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025/ ...Central/Southern FL Peninsula... Recent surface analysis places a low just off the GA Coast, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across far southeast GA and western north FL into the northeastern Gulf. A relatively broad surface trough (and modest wind shift) exists ahead of this front across the central FL Peninsula. Thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the area of low-level confluence and moisture convergence, which extends well offshore. The downstream airmass across central and southern FL is currently characterized by temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and dewpoints in the low 70s. Overall buoyancy within these warm and moist conditions is currently mitigated somewhat by warm temperatures aloft, which were sampled well by the 12Z MFL sounding. Even so, enough boundary-layer warming appears likely throughout the day to maintain modest destabilization within at least a narrow corridor of higher pre-frontal moisture content. Continued thunderstorm development is anticipated within this corridor as it gradually shifts southward/southeastward this afternoon and evening. Strong low to mid-level flow will persist across the peninsula, with a resulting persistence of deep-layer vertical shear. As such, the environment will remain favorable for isolated to widely scattered supercell development. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk from these storms. Modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs suggest a short-lived tornado or two is also possible throughout the day, but these hodographs are forecast to shrink with southern extent as surface to 850 mb flow veers to a more westerly component and begins to weaken some. As mentioned in the recently issued MCD #0161, the near coastal areas between Palm Beach and Vero Beach appear to have the greatest (although still relatively low) tornado risk this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts will continue across the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon. ...20z Update... The Marginal risk area was reduced across central Florida with this update with the passage of the front. Some severe risk continues across portions of the southern Florida peninsula where temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to 80s with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg remaining ahead of the front. In addition, deep layer flow remains strong as the mid-level wave continues to move across the peninsula, which may support instance of a stronger storm or two capable of damaging wind. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 03/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025/ ...Central/Southern FL Peninsula... Recent surface analysis places a low just off the GA Coast, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across far southeast GA and western north FL into the northeastern Gulf. A relatively broad surface trough (and modest wind shift) exists ahead of this front across the central FL Peninsula. Thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the area of low-level confluence and moisture convergence, which extends well offshore. The downstream airmass across central and southern FL is currently characterized by temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and dewpoints in the low 70s. Overall buoyancy within these warm and moist conditions is currently mitigated somewhat by warm temperatures aloft, which were sampled well by the 12Z MFL sounding. Even so, enough boundary-layer warming appears likely throughout the day to maintain modest destabilization within at least a narrow corridor of higher pre-frontal moisture content. Continued thunderstorm development is anticipated within this corridor as it gradually shifts southward/southeastward this afternoon and evening. Strong low to mid-level flow will persist across the peninsula, with a resulting persistence of deep-layer vertical shear. As such, the environment will remain favorable for isolated to widely scattered supercell development. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk from these storms. Modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs suggest a short-lived tornado or two is also possible throughout the day, but these hodographs are forecast to shrink with southern extent as surface to 850 mb flow veers to a more westerly component and begins to weaken some. As mentioned in the recently issued MCD #0161, the near coastal areas between Palm Beach and Vero Beach appear to have the greatest (although still relatively low) tornado risk this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts will continue across the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon. ...20z Update... The Marginal risk area was reduced across central Florida with this update with the passage of the front. Some severe risk continues across portions of the southern Florida peninsula where temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to 80s with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg remaining ahead of the front. In addition, deep layer flow remains strong as the mid-level wave continues to move across the peninsula, which may support instance of a stronger storm or two capable of damaging wind. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 03/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025/ ...Central/Southern FL Peninsula... Recent surface analysis places a low just off the GA Coast, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across far southeast GA and western north FL into the northeastern Gulf. A relatively broad surface trough (and modest wind shift) exists ahead of this front across the central FL Peninsula. Thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the area of low-level confluence and moisture convergence, which extends well offshore. The downstream airmass across central and southern FL is currently characterized by temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and dewpoints in the low 70s. Overall buoyancy within these warm and moist conditions is currently mitigated somewhat by warm temperatures aloft, which were sampled well by the 12Z MFL sounding. Even so, enough boundary-layer warming appears likely throughout the day to maintain modest destabilization within at least a narrow corridor of higher pre-frontal moisture content. Continued thunderstorm development is anticipated within this corridor as it gradually shifts southward/southeastward this afternoon and evening. Strong low to mid-level flow will persist across the peninsula, with a resulting persistence of deep-layer vertical shear. As such, the environment will remain favorable for isolated to widely scattered supercell development. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk from these storms. Modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs suggest a short-lived tornado or two is also possible throughout the day, but these hodographs are forecast to shrink with southern extent as surface to 850 mb flow veers to a more westerly component and begins to weaken some. As mentioned in the recently issued MCD #0161, the near coastal areas between Palm Beach and Vero Beach appear to have the greatest (although still relatively low) tornado risk this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts will continue across the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon. ...20z Update... The Marginal risk area was reduced across central Florida with this update with the passage of the front. Some severe risk continues across portions of the southern Florida peninsula where temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to 80s with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg remaining ahead of the front. In addition, deep layer flow remains strong as the mid-level wave continues to move across the peninsula, which may support instance of a stronger storm or two capable of damaging wind. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 03/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025/ ...Central/Southern FL Peninsula... Recent surface analysis places a low just off the GA Coast, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across far southeast GA and western north FL into the northeastern Gulf. A relatively broad surface trough (and modest wind shift) exists ahead of this front across the central FL Peninsula. Thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the area of low-level confluence and moisture convergence, which extends well offshore. The downstream airmass across central and southern FL is currently characterized by temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and dewpoints in the low 70s. Overall buoyancy within these warm and moist conditions is currently mitigated somewhat by warm temperatures aloft, which were sampled well by the 12Z MFL sounding. Even so, enough boundary-layer warming appears likely throughout the day to maintain modest destabilization within at least a narrow corridor of higher pre-frontal moisture content. Continued thunderstorm development is anticipated within this corridor as it gradually shifts southward/southeastward this afternoon and evening. Strong low to mid-level flow will persist across the peninsula, with a resulting persistence of deep-layer vertical shear. As such, the environment will remain favorable for isolated to widely scattered supercell development. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk from these storms. Modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs suggest a short-lived tornado or two is also possible throughout the day, but these hodographs are forecast to shrink with southern extent as surface to 850 mb flow veers to a more westerly component and begins to weaken some. As mentioned in the recently issued MCD #0161, the near coastal areas between Palm Beach and Vero Beach appear to have the greatest (although still relatively low) tornado risk this afternoon. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A fast-moving mid-level trough will traverse from the Southwest Wednesday morning, across the southern Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by early Thursday morning. A weak surface cyclone will develop near the TX/OK Panhandles and move to the Ozark vicinity by late Wednesday evening. A dryline will extend from this surface low and sharpen across east-central Texas by early evening. ...Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Southerly flow will bring moisture northward ahead of the dryline on Wednesday afternoon. While some 60s dewpoints may approach the Red River, the moisture will be quite shallow with mean mixing ratio values around 10 g/kg ahead of the dryline. However, despite the low-quality moisture, cool mid-level temperatures will support moderate instability and mid-level forcing will be strong which should permit thunderstorm development along the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening. 40-50+ knots of effective shear is forecast beneath the mid-level jet streak. Therefore, supercells are possible with a threat for both large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. This threat should continue into the overnight period as moisture quality increases across the warm sector amid continued height falls and strengthening isentropic ascent. Some consideration was given to a Slight risk across portions of southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. However, the shallow nature of the moisture and the impact that may have on convective coverage during the afternoon/evening is the primary limiting factor at this time. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A fast-moving mid-level trough will traverse from the Southwest Wednesday morning, across the southern Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by early Thursday morning. A weak surface cyclone will develop near the TX/OK Panhandles and move to the Ozark vicinity by late Wednesday evening. A dryline will extend from this surface low and sharpen across east-central Texas by early evening. ...Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Southerly flow will bring moisture northward ahead of the dryline on Wednesday afternoon. While some 60s dewpoints may approach the Red River, the moisture will be quite shallow with mean mixing ratio values around 10 g/kg ahead of the dryline. However, despite the low-quality moisture, cool mid-level temperatures will support moderate instability and mid-level forcing will be strong which should permit thunderstorm development along the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening. 40-50+ knots of effective shear is forecast beneath the mid-level jet streak. Therefore, supercells are possible with a threat for both large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. This threat should continue into the overnight period as moisture quality increases across the warm sector amid continued height falls and strengthening isentropic ascent. Some consideration was given to a Slight risk across portions of southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. However, the shallow nature of the moisture and the impact that may have on convective coverage during the afternoon/evening is the primary limiting factor at this time. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A fast-moving mid-level trough will traverse from the Southwest Wednesday morning, across the southern Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by early Thursday morning. A weak surface cyclone will develop near the TX/OK Panhandles and move to the Ozark vicinity by late Wednesday evening. A dryline will extend from this surface low and sharpen across east-central Texas by early evening. ...Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Southerly flow will bring moisture northward ahead of the dryline on Wednesday afternoon. While some 60s dewpoints may approach the Red River, the moisture will be quite shallow with mean mixing ratio values around 10 g/kg ahead of the dryline. However, despite the low-quality moisture, cool mid-level temperatures will support moderate instability and mid-level forcing will be strong which should permit thunderstorm development along the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening. 40-50+ knots of effective shear is forecast beneath the mid-level jet streak. Therefore, supercells are possible with a threat for both large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. This threat should continue into the overnight period as moisture quality increases across the warm sector amid continued height falls and strengthening isentropic ascent. Some consideration was given to a Slight risk across portions of southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. However, the shallow nature of the moisture and the impact that may have on convective coverage during the afternoon/evening is the primary limiting factor at this time. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A fast-moving mid-level trough will traverse from the Southwest Wednesday morning, across the southern Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by early Thursday morning. A weak surface cyclone will develop near the TX/OK Panhandles and move to the Ozark vicinity by late Wednesday evening. A dryline will extend from this surface low and sharpen across east-central Texas by early evening. ...Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Southerly flow will bring moisture northward ahead of the dryline on Wednesday afternoon. While some 60s dewpoints may approach the Red River, the moisture will be quite shallow with mean mixing ratio values around 10 g/kg ahead of the dryline. However, despite the low-quality moisture, cool mid-level temperatures will support moderate instability and mid-level forcing will be strong which should permit thunderstorm development along the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening. 40-50+ knots of effective shear is forecast beneath the mid-level jet streak. Therefore, supercells are possible with a threat for both large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. This threat should continue into the overnight period as moisture quality increases across the warm sector amid continued height falls and strengthening isentropic ascent. Some consideration was given to a Slight risk across portions of southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. However, the shallow nature of the moisture and the impact that may have on convective coverage during the afternoon/evening is the primary limiting factor at this time. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A fast-moving mid-level trough will traverse from the Southwest Wednesday morning, across the southern Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by early Thursday morning. A weak surface cyclone will develop near the TX/OK Panhandles and move to the Ozark vicinity by late Wednesday evening. A dryline will extend from this surface low and sharpen across east-central Texas by early evening. ...Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Southerly flow will bring moisture northward ahead of the dryline on Wednesday afternoon. While some 60s dewpoints may approach the Red River, the moisture will be quite shallow with mean mixing ratio values around 10 g/kg ahead of the dryline. However, despite the low-quality moisture, cool mid-level temperatures will support moderate instability and mid-level forcing will be strong which should permit thunderstorm development along the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening. 40-50+ knots of effective shear is forecast beneath the mid-level jet streak. Therefore, supercells are possible with a threat for both large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. This threat should continue into the overnight period as moisture quality increases across the warm sector amid continued height falls and strengthening isentropic ascent. Some consideration was given to a Slight risk across portions of southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. However, the shallow nature of the moisture and the impact that may have on convective coverage during the afternoon/evening is the primary limiting factor at this time. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A fast-moving mid-level trough will traverse from the Southwest Wednesday morning, across the southern Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by early Thursday morning. A weak surface cyclone will develop near the TX/OK Panhandles and move to the Ozark vicinity by late Wednesday evening. A dryline will extend from this surface low and sharpen across east-central Texas by early evening. ...Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Southerly flow will bring moisture northward ahead of the dryline on Wednesday afternoon. While some 60s dewpoints may approach the Red River, the moisture will be quite shallow with mean mixing ratio values around 10 g/kg ahead of the dryline. However, despite the low-quality moisture, cool mid-level temperatures will support moderate instability and mid-level forcing will be strong which should permit thunderstorm development along the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening. 40-50+ knots of effective shear is forecast beneath the mid-level jet streak. Therefore, supercells are possible with a threat for both large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. This threat should continue into the overnight period as moisture quality increases across the warm sector amid continued height falls and strengthening isentropic ascent. Some consideration was given to a Slight risk across portions of southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. However, the shallow nature of the moisture and the impact that may have on convective coverage during the afternoon/evening is the primary limiting factor at this time. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A fast-moving mid-level trough will traverse from the Southwest Wednesday morning, across the southern Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by early Thursday morning. A weak surface cyclone will develop near the TX/OK Panhandles and move to the Ozark vicinity by late Wednesday evening. A dryline will extend from this surface low and sharpen across east-central Texas by early evening. ...Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Southerly flow will bring moisture northward ahead of the dryline on Wednesday afternoon. While some 60s dewpoints may approach the Red River, the moisture will be quite shallow with mean mixing ratio values around 10 g/kg ahead of the dryline. However, despite the low-quality moisture, cool mid-level temperatures will support moderate instability and mid-level forcing will be strong which should permit thunderstorm development along the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening. 40-50+ knots of effective shear is forecast beneath the mid-level jet streak. Therefore, supercells are possible with a threat for both large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. This threat should continue into the overnight period as moisture quality increases across the warm sector amid continued height falls and strengthening isentropic ascent. Some consideration was given to a Slight risk across portions of southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. However, the shallow nature of the moisture and the impact that may have on convective coverage during the afternoon/evening is the primary limiting factor at this time. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest California and southern/central Arizona Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low, off the coast of southern California Tuesday morning, will slowly drift inland across southern California and become more of an open wave across southern Arizona by the end of the period. The moisture stream ahead of this trough has some tropical connection which will bring near 1 inch PWAT values to coastal southern California and southern Arizona. This low-level moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft, will provide an environment favorable for scattered thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening. Instability should be generally weak (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) but greatest beneath the upper low, where mid-level flow will also be weak. Therefore, thunderstorm activity should be most favored where shear is weakest and thus, the severe weather threat should remain minimal. Any marginal severe weather threat which may be present will likely be farther south across northern Mexico beneath the stronger mid-level flow. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest California and southern/central Arizona Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low, off the coast of southern California Tuesday morning, will slowly drift inland across southern California and become more of an open wave across southern Arizona by the end of the period. The moisture stream ahead of this trough has some tropical connection which will bring near 1 inch PWAT values to coastal southern California and southern Arizona. This low-level moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft, will provide an environment favorable for scattered thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening. Instability should be generally weak (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) but greatest beneath the upper low, where mid-level flow will also be weak. Therefore, thunderstorm activity should be most favored where shear is weakest and thus, the severe weather threat should remain minimal. Any marginal severe weather threat which may be present will likely be farther south across northern Mexico beneath the stronger mid-level flow. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest California and southern/central Arizona Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low, off the coast of southern California Tuesday morning, will slowly drift inland across southern California and become more of an open wave across southern Arizona by the end of the period. The moisture stream ahead of this trough has some tropical connection which will bring near 1 inch PWAT values to coastal southern California and southern Arizona. This low-level moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft, will provide an environment favorable for scattered thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening. Instability should be generally weak (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) but greatest beneath the upper low, where mid-level flow will also be weak. Therefore, thunderstorm activity should be most favored where shear is weakest and thus, the severe weather threat should remain minimal. Any marginal severe weather threat which may be present will likely be farther south across northern Mexico beneath the stronger mid-level flow. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest California and southern/central Arizona Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low, off the coast of southern California Tuesday morning, will slowly drift inland across southern California and become more of an open wave across southern Arizona by the end of the period. The moisture stream ahead of this trough has some tropical connection which will bring near 1 inch PWAT values to coastal southern California and southern Arizona. This low-level moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft, will provide an environment favorable for scattered thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening. Instability should be generally weak (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) but greatest beneath the upper low, where mid-level flow will also be weak. Therefore, thunderstorm activity should be most favored where shear is weakest and thus, the severe weather threat should remain minimal. Any marginal severe weather threat which may be present will likely be farther south across northern Mexico beneath the stronger mid-level flow. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest California and southern/central Arizona Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low, off the coast of southern California Tuesday morning, will slowly drift inland across southern California and become more of an open wave across southern Arizona by the end of the period. The moisture stream ahead of this trough has some tropical connection which will bring near 1 inch PWAT values to coastal southern California and southern Arizona. This low-level moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft, will provide an environment favorable for scattered thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening. Instability should be generally weak (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) but greatest beneath the upper low, where mid-level flow will also be weak. Therefore, thunderstorm activity should be most favored where shear is weakest and thus, the severe weather threat should remain minimal. Any marginal severe weather threat which may be present will likely be farther south across northern Mexico beneath the stronger mid-level flow. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest California and southern/central Arizona Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low, off the coast of southern California Tuesday morning, will slowly drift inland across southern California and become more of an open wave across southern Arizona by the end of the period. The moisture stream ahead of this trough has some tropical connection which will bring near 1 inch PWAT values to coastal southern California and southern Arizona. This low-level moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft, will provide an environment favorable for scattered thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening. Instability should be generally weak (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) but greatest beneath the upper low, where mid-level flow will also be weak. Therefore, thunderstorm activity should be most favored where shear is weakest and thus, the severe weather threat should remain minimal. Any marginal severe weather threat which may be present will likely be farther south across northern Mexico beneath the stronger mid-level flow. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more