Aggregator

MD 0205 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 45...46... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0205 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...portions of northern Mississippi into northwestern Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 45...46... Valid 151816Z - 151945Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 45, 46 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for tornadoes continues across northern MS into northwestern AL, particularly with a supercell in Montgomery County. Intense tornadoes (EF3+) are possible. DISCUSSION...A QLCS has evolved into more discrete supercells, some of which have become dominant relative to other convective elements in the area. Some of these storms have a history of tornadoes, and a supercell in Montgomery County, MS has a persistent mesocyclone that continues to intensify per KDGX and KGWX NEXRAD data. The GWX VAD shows an impressively large and curved hodograph, with nearly 500 m2/s2 effective SRH in just the surface-500 m layer, with about 1000 m2/s2 SRH in the sfc-3 km layer. As such, the ambient environment supports intense tornadoes (EF3+). However, this is contingent on storms benefiting from minimal interference by other nearby storms, including the absorption of smaller storms. If one of the more dominant storms (especially the Montgomery County storm) can obtain a pristine inflow environment, the chance for intense tornado development is high. Damaging gusts are possible, especially with any linear segments that materialize. ..Squitieri.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 33368995 33878950 34318904 34948780 34928698 34568670 33858716 33488837 33408862 33318894 33228937 33198963 33368995 Read more

WW 0047 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 47 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW MSL TO 25 N BNA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0208. ..GRAMS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 47 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC003-015-027-031-035-037-041-049-051-055-061-081-087-099-101- 103-111-117-119-127-133-137-141-147-149-159-165-169-175-177-181- 185-187-189-152040- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD CANNON CLAY COFFEE CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON DE KALB FENTRESS FRANKLIN GILES GRUNDY HICKMAN JACKSON LAWRENCE LEWIS LINCOLN MACON MARSHALL MAURY MOORE OVERTON PICKETT PUTNAM ROBERTSON RUTHERFORD SMITH SUMNER TROUSDALE VAN BUREN WARREN WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON WILSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0046 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 46 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 0206 AND 0207. ..GRAMS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...HUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 46 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-009-013-015-021-023-025-033-035-037-043-047-049-051- 055-057-059-063-065-071-073-075-077-079-083-085-089-091-093-095- 099-101-103-105-107-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-131-133- 152040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB BLOUNT BUTLER CALHOUN CHILTON CHOCTAW CLARKE COLBERT CONECUH COOSA CULLMAN DALLAS DEKALB ELMORE ETOWAH FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE HALE JACKSON JEFFERSON LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE LOWNDES MADISON MARENGO MARION MARSHALL MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN PERRY PICKENS ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TUSCALOOSA WALKER WASHINGTON WILCOX WINSTON Read more

WW 0045 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 45 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE LFT TO 30 ENE GWO TO 35 NNE TUP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 0206 AND 0207. ..GRAMS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 45 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-063-091-093-095-103-105-117-152040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION LIVINGSTON ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC005-007-013-017-019-023-025-029-031-035-051-057-061-065-067- 069-073-075-077-079-081-085-087-089-091-095-097-099-101-103-105- 109-113-115-117-121-123-127-129-141-147-155-159-152040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE ATTALA CALHOUN CHICKASAW CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST HOLMES ITAWAMBA JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Within the Southern High Plains, some locally critical conditions will be possible near the Edwards Plateau. This risk looks to remain too localized to include Critical probabilities at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains and the northern Plains. The upper trough currently amplifying across the southern CONUS is expected to quickly translate eastward towards the southern Appalachians by mid-day Sunday with building surface high pressure across the southern Plains in its wake. Increasing westerly winds across the central and northern Rockies associated with an approaching upper ridge will promote a downslope flow regime across the central/northern Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Dry, but relatively quiescent conditions are expected across much of the southern Plains where widespread fire activity has been observed over the past 24 hours. However, areas of breezy conditions are possible across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX Sunday afternoon where gradient winds may increase to around 15-20 mph. Very dry fuels combined with RH values in the teens to low 20s should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions from far southeast NM into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions of southwest TX. ...Central/northern Plains... A westerly downslope flow regime is expected to develop across eastern WY/MT into adjacent portions of NE and the Dakotas by Sunday afternoon as an upper ridge builds into the northern Rockies. Dry/breezy conditions are expected with 15-20 mph winds and RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. Although some areas have recently seen rainfall per MRMS estimates, dry/windy conditions on Saturday should support sufficient drying of fine fuels to support at least a low-end fire weather concern Sunday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Within the Southern High Plains, some locally critical conditions will be possible near the Edwards Plateau. This risk looks to remain too localized to include Critical probabilities at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains and the northern Plains. The upper trough currently amplifying across the southern CONUS is expected to quickly translate eastward towards the southern Appalachians by mid-day Sunday with building surface high pressure across the southern Plains in its wake. Increasing westerly winds across the central and northern Rockies associated with an approaching upper ridge will promote a downslope flow regime across the central/northern Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Dry, but relatively quiescent conditions are expected across much of the southern Plains where widespread fire activity has been observed over the past 24 hours. However, areas of breezy conditions are possible across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX Sunday afternoon where gradient winds may increase to around 15-20 mph. Very dry fuels combined with RH values in the teens to low 20s should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions from far southeast NM into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions of southwest TX. ...Central/northern Plains... A westerly downslope flow regime is expected to develop across eastern WY/MT into adjacent portions of NE and the Dakotas by Sunday afternoon as an upper ridge builds into the northern Rockies. Dry/breezy conditions are expected with 15-20 mph winds and RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. Although some areas have recently seen rainfall per MRMS estimates, dry/windy conditions on Saturday should support sufficient drying of fine fuels to support at least a low-end fire weather concern Sunday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Within the Southern High Plains, some locally critical conditions will be possible near the Edwards Plateau. This risk looks to remain too localized to include Critical probabilities at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains and the northern Plains. The upper trough currently amplifying across the southern CONUS is expected to quickly translate eastward towards the southern Appalachians by mid-day Sunday with building surface high pressure across the southern Plains in its wake. Increasing westerly winds across the central and northern Rockies associated with an approaching upper ridge will promote a downslope flow regime across the central/northern Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Dry, but relatively quiescent conditions are expected across much of the southern Plains where widespread fire activity has been observed over the past 24 hours. However, areas of breezy conditions are possible across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX Sunday afternoon where gradient winds may increase to around 15-20 mph. Very dry fuels combined with RH values in the teens to low 20s should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions from far southeast NM into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions of southwest TX. ...Central/northern Plains... A westerly downslope flow regime is expected to develop across eastern WY/MT into adjacent portions of NE and the Dakotas by Sunday afternoon as an upper ridge builds into the northern Rockies. Dry/breezy conditions are expected with 15-20 mph winds and RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. Although some areas have recently seen rainfall per MRMS estimates, dry/windy conditions on Saturday should support sufficient drying of fine fuels to support at least a low-end fire weather concern Sunday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Within the Southern High Plains, some locally critical conditions will be possible near the Edwards Plateau. This risk looks to remain too localized to include Critical probabilities at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains and the northern Plains. The upper trough currently amplifying across the southern CONUS is expected to quickly translate eastward towards the southern Appalachians by mid-day Sunday with building surface high pressure across the southern Plains in its wake. Increasing westerly winds across the central and northern Rockies associated with an approaching upper ridge will promote a downslope flow regime across the central/northern Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Dry, but relatively quiescent conditions are expected across much of the southern Plains where widespread fire activity has been observed over the past 24 hours. However, areas of breezy conditions are possible across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX Sunday afternoon where gradient winds may increase to around 15-20 mph. Very dry fuels combined with RH values in the teens to low 20s should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions from far southeast NM into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions of southwest TX. ...Central/northern Plains... A westerly downslope flow regime is expected to develop across eastern WY/MT into adjacent portions of NE and the Dakotas by Sunday afternoon as an upper ridge builds into the northern Rockies. Dry/breezy conditions are expected with 15-20 mph winds and RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. Although some areas have recently seen rainfall per MRMS estimates, dry/windy conditions on Saturday should support sufficient drying of fine fuels to support at least a low-end fire weather concern Sunday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Within the Southern High Plains, some locally critical conditions will be possible near the Edwards Plateau. This risk looks to remain too localized to include Critical probabilities at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains and the northern Plains. The upper trough currently amplifying across the southern CONUS is expected to quickly translate eastward towards the southern Appalachians by mid-day Sunday with building surface high pressure across the southern Plains in its wake. Increasing westerly winds across the central and northern Rockies associated with an approaching upper ridge will promote a downslope flow regime across the central/northern Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Dry, but relatively quiescent conditions are expected across much of the southern Plains where widespread fire activity has been observed over the past 24 hours. However, areas of breezy conditions are possible across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX Sunday afternoon where gradient winds may increase to around 15-20 mph. Very dry fuels combined with RH values in the teens to low 20s should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions from far southeast NM into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions of southwest TX. ...Central/northern Plains... A westerly downslope flow regime is expected to develop across eastern WY/MT into adjacent portions of NE and the Dakotas by Sunday afternoon as an upper ridge builds into the northern Rockies. Dry/breezy conditions are expected with 15-20 mph winds and RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. Although some areas have recently seen rainfall per MRMS estimates, dry/windy conditions on Saturday should support sufficient drying of fine fuels to support at least a low-end fire weather concern Sunday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Within the Southern High Plains, some locally critical conditions will be possible near the Edwards Plateau. This risk looks to remain too localized to include Critical probabilities at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains and the northern Plains. The upper trough currently amplifying across the southern CONUS is expected to quickly translate eastward towards the southern Appalachians by mid-day Sunday with building surface high pressure across the southern Plains in its wake. Increasing westerly winds across the central and northern Rockies associated with an approaching upper ridge will promote a downslope flow regime across the central/northern Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Dry, but relatively quiescent conditions are expected across much of the southern Plains where widespread fire activity has been observed over the past 24 hours. However, areas of breezy conditions are possible across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX Sunday afternoon where gradient winds may increase to around 15-20 mph. Very dry fuels combined with RH values in the teens to low 20s should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions from far southeast NM into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions of southwest TX. ...Central/northern Plains... A westerly downslope flow regime is expected to develop across eastern WY/MT into adjacent portions of NE and the Dakotas by Sunday afternoon as an upper ridge builds into the northern Rockies. Dry/breezy conditions are expected with 15-20 mph winds and RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. Although some areas have recently seen rainfall per MRMS estimates, dry/windy conditions on Saturday should support sufficient drying of fine fuels to support at least a low-end fire weather concern Sunday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Within the Southern High Plains, some locally critical conditions will be possible near the Edwards Plateau. This risk looks to remain too localized to include Critical probabilities at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains and the northern Plains. The upper trough currently amplifying across the southern CONUS is expected to quickly translate eastward towards the southern Appalachians by mid-day Sunday with building surface high pressure across the southern Plains in its wake. Increasing westerly winds across the central and northern Rockies associated with an approaching upper ridge will promote a downslope flow regime across the central/northern Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Dry, but relatively quiescent conditions are expected across much of the southern Plains where widespread fire activity has been observed over the past 24 hours. However, areas of breezy conditions are possible across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX Sunday afternoon where gradient winds may increase to around 15-20 mph. Very dry fuels combined with RH values in the teens to low 20s should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions from far southeast NM into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions of southwest TX. ...Central/northern Plains... A westerly downslope flow regime is expected to develop across eastern WY/MT into adjacent portions of NE and the Dakotas by Sunday afternoon as an upper ridge builds into the northern Rockies. Dry/breezy conditions are expected with 15-20 mph winds and RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. Although some areas have recently seen rainfall per MRMS estimates, dry/windy conditions on Saturday should support sufficient drying of fine fuels to support at least a low-end fire weather concern Sunday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Within the Southern High Plains, some locally critical conditions will be possible near the Edwards Plateau. This risk looks to remain too localized to include Critical probabilities at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains and the northern Plains. The upper trough currently amplifying across the southern CONUS is expected to quickly translate eastward towards the southern Appalachians by mid-day Sunday with building surface high pressure across the southern Plains in its wake. Increasing westerly winds across the central and northern Rockies associated with an approaching upper ridge will promote a downslope flow regime across the central/northern Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Dry, but relatively quiescent conditions are expected across much of the southern Plains where widespread fire activity has been observed over the past 24 hours. However, areas of breezy conditions are possible across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX Sunday afternoon where gradient winds may increase to around 15-20 mph. Very dry fuels combined with RH values in the teens to low 20s should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions from far southeast NM into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions of southwest TX. ...Central/northern Plains... A westerly downslope flow regime is expected to develop across eastern WY/MT into adjacent portions of NE and the Dakotas by Sunday afternoon as an upper ridge builds into the northern Rockies. Dry/breezy conditions are expected with 15-20 mph winds and RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. Although some areas have recently seen rainfall per MRMS estimates, dry/windy conditions on Saturday should support sufficient drying of fine fuels to support at least a low-end fire weather concern Sunday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Within the Southern High Plains, some locally critical conditions will be possible near the Edwards Plateau. This risk looks to remain too localized to include Critical probabilities at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains and the northern Plains. The upper trough currently amplifying across the southern CONUS is expected to quickly translate eastward towards the southern Appalachians by mid-day Sunday with building surface high pressure across the southern Plains in its wake. Increasing westerly winds across the central and northern Rockies associated with an approaching upper ridge will promote a downslope flow regime across the central/northern Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Dry, but relatively quiescent conditions are expected across much of the southern Plains where widespread fire activity has been observed over the past 24 hours. However, areas of breezy conditions are possible across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX Sunday afternoon where gradient winds may increase to around 15-20 mph. Very dry fuels combined with RH values in the teens to low 20s should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions from far southeast NM into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions of southwest TX. ...Central/northern Plains... A westerly downslope flow regime is expected to develop across eastern WY/MT into adjacent portions of NE and the Dakotas by Sunday afternoon as an upper ridge builds into the northern Rockies. Dry/breezy conditions are expected with 15-20 mph winds and RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. Although some areas have recently seen rainfall per MRMS estimates, dry/windy conditions on Saturday should support sufficient drying of fine fuels to support at least a low-end fire weather concern Sunday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Within the Southern High Plains, some locally critical conditions will be possible near the Edwards Plateau. This risk looks to remain too localized to include Critical probabilities at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains and the northern Plains. The upper trough currently amplifying across the southern CONUS is expected to quickly translate eastward towards the southern Appalachians by mid-day Sunday with building surface high pressure across the southern Plains in its wake. Increasing westerly winds across the central and northern Rockies associated with an approaching upper ridge will promote a downslope flow regime across the central/northern Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Dry, but relatively quiescent conditions are expected across much of the southern Plains where widespread fire activity has been observed over the past 24 hours. However, areas of breezy conditions are possible across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX Sunday afternoon where gradient winds may increase to around 15-20 mph. Very dry fuels combined with RH values in the teens to low 20s should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions from far southeast NM into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions of southwest TX. ...Central/northern Plains... A westerly downslope flow regime is expected to develop across eastern WY/MT into adjacent portions of NE and the Dakotas by Sunday afternoon as an upper ridge builds into the northern Rockies. Dry/breezy conditions are expected with 15-20 mph winds and RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. Although some areas have recently seen rainfall per MRMS estimates, dry/windy conditions on Saturday should support sufficient drying of fine fuels to support at least a low-end fire weather concern Sunday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Within the Southern High Plains, some locally critical conditions will be possible near the Edwards Plateau. This risk looks to remain too localized to include Critical probabilities at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains and the northern Plains. The upper trough currently amplifying across the southern CONUS is expected to quickly translate eastward towards the southern Appalachians by mid-day Sunday with building surface high pressure across the southern Plains in its wake. Increasing westerly winds across the central and northern Rockies associated with an approaching upper ridge will promote a downslope flow regime across the central/northern Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Dry, but relatively quiescent conditions are expected across much of the southern Plains where widespread fire activity has been observed over the past 24 hours. However, areas of breezy conditions are possible across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX Sunday afternoon where gradient winds may increase to around 15-20 mph. Very dry fuels combined with RH values in the teens to low 20s should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions from far southeast NM into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions of southwest TX. ...Central/northern Plains... A westerly downslope flow regime is expected to develop across eastern WY/MT into adjacent portions of NE and the Dakotas by Sunday afternoon as an upper ridge builds into the northern Rockies. Dry/breezy conditions are expected with 15-20 mph winds and RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. Although some areas have recently seen rainfall per MRMS estimates, dry/windy conditions on Saturday should support sufficient drying of fine fuels to support at least a low-end fire weather concern Sunday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Within the Southern High Plains, some locally critical conditions will be possible near the Edwards Plateau. This risk looks to remain too localized to include Critical probabilities at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains and the northern Plains. The upper trough currently amplifying across the southern CONUS is expected to quickly translate eastward towards the southern Appalachians by mid-day Sunday with building surface high pressure across the southern Plains in its wake. Increasing westerly winds across the central and northern Rockies associated with an approaching upper ridge will promote a downslope flow regime across the central/northern Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Dry, but relatively quiescent conditions are expected across much of the southern Plains where widespread fire activity has been observed over the past 24 hours. However, areas of breezy conditions are possible across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX Sunday afternoon where gradient winds may increase to around 15-20 mph. Very dry fuels combined with RH values in the teens to low 20s should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions from far southeast NM into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions of southwest TX. ...Central/northern Plains... A westerly downslope flow regime is expected to develop across eastern WY/MT into adjacent portions of NE and the Dakotas by Sunday afternoon as an upper ridge builds into the northern Rockies. Dry/breezy conditions are expected with 15-20 mph winds and RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. Although some areas have recently seen rainfall per MRMS estimates, dry/windy conditions on Saturday should support sufficient drying of fine fuels to support at least a low-end fire weather concern Sunday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Within the Southern High Plains, some locally critical conditions will be possible near the Edwards Plateau. This risk looks to remain too localized to include Critical probabilities at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains and the northern Plains. The upper trough currently amplifying across the southern CONUS is expected to quickly translate eastward towards the southern Appalachians by mid-day Sunday with building surface high pressure across the southern Plains in its wake. Increasing westerly winds across the central and northern Rockies associated with an approaching upper ridge will promote a downslope flow regime across the central/northern Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Dry, but relatively quiescent conditions are expected across much of the southern Plains where widespread fire activity has been observed over the past 24 hours. However, areas of breezy conditions are possible across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX Sunday afternoon where gradient winds may increase to around 15-20 mph. Very dry fuels combined with RH values in the teens to low 20s should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions from far southeast NM into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions of southwest TX. ...Central/northern Plains... A westerly downslope flow regime is expected to develop across eastern WY/MT into adjacent portions of NE and the Dakotas by Sunday afternoon as an upper ridge builds into the northern Rockies. Dry/breezy conditions are expected with 15-20 mph winds and RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. Although some areas have recently seen rainfall per MRMS estimates, dry/windy conditions on Saturday should support sufficient drying of fine fuels to support at least a low-end fire weather concern Sunday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Within the Southern High Plains, some locally critical conditions will be possible near the Edwards Plateau. This risk looks to remain too localized to include Critical probabilities at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains and the northern Plains. The upper trough currently amplifying across the southern CONUS is expected to quickly translate eastward towards the southern Appalachians by mid-day Sunday with building surface high pressure across the southern Plains in its wake. Increasing westerly winds across the central and northern Rockies associated with an approaching upper ridge will promote a downslope flow regime across the central/northern Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Dry, but relatively quiescent conditions are expected across much of the southern Plains where widespread fire activity has been observed over the past 24 hours. However, areas of breezy conditions are possible across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX Sunday afternoon where gradient winds may increase to around 15-20 mph. Very dry fuels combined with RH values in the teens to low 20s should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions from far southeast NM into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions of southwest TX. ...Central/northern Plains... A westerly downslope flow regime is expected to develop across eastern WY/MT into adjacent portions of NE and the Dakotas by Sunday afternoon as an upper ridge builds into the northern Rockies. Dry/breezy conditions are expected with 15-20 mph winds and RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. Although some areas have recently seen rainfall per MRMS estimates, dry/windy conditions on Saturday should support sufficient drying of fine fuels to support at least a low-end fire weather concern Sunday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Within the Southern High Plains, some locally critical conditions will be possible near the Edwards Plateau. This risk looks to remain too localized to include Critical probabilities at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains and the northern Plains. The upper trough currently amplifying across the southern CONUS is expected to quickly translate eastward towards the southern Appalachians by mid-day Sunday with building surface high pressure across the southern Plains in its wake. Increasing westerly winds across the central and northern Rockies associated with an approaching upper ridge will promote a downslope flow regime across the central/northern Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Dry, but relatively quiescent conditions are expected across much of the southern Plains where widespread fire activity has been observed over the past 24 hours. However, areas of breezy conditions are possible across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX Sunday afternoon where gradient winds may increase to around 15-20 mph. Very dry fuels combined with RH values in the teens to low 20s should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions from far southeast NM into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions of southwest TX. ...Central/northern Plains... A westerly downslope flow regime is expected to develop across eastern WY/MT into adjacent portions of NE and the Dakotas by Sunday afternoon as an upper ridge builds into the northern Rockies. Dry/breezy conditions are expected with 15-20 mph winds and RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. Although some areas have recently seen rainfall per MRMS estimates, dry/windy conditions on Saturday should support sufficient drying of fine fuels to support at least a low-end fire weather concern Sunday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Within the Southern High Plains, some locally critical conditions will be possible near the Edwards Plateau. This risk looks to remain too localized to include Critical probabilities at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains and the northern Plains. The upper trough currently amplifying across the southern CONUS is expected to quickly translate eastward towards the southern Appalachians by mid-day Sunday with building surface high pressure across the southern Plains in its wake. Increasing westerly winds across the central and northern Rockies associated with an approaching upper ridge will promote a downslope flow regime across the central/northern Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Dry, but relatively quiescent conditions are expected across much of the southern Plains where widespread fire activity has been observed over the past 24 hours. However, areas of breezy conditions are possible across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX Sunday afternoon where gradient winds may increase to around 15-20 mph. Very dry fuels combined with RH values in the teens to low 20s should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions from far southeast NM into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions of southwest TX. ...Central/northern Plains... A westerly downslope flow regime is expected to develop across eastern WY/MT into adjacent portions of NE and the Dakotas by Sunday afternoon as an upper ridge builds into the northern Rockies. Dry/breezy conditions are expected with 15-20 mph winds and RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. Although some areas have recently seen rainfall per MRMS estimates, dry/windy conditions on Saturday should support sufficient drying of fine fuels to support at least a low-end fire weather concern Sunday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more