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MD 0236 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0236 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0517 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Areas affected...parts of central and northeast North Carolina...much of central into eastern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 162217Z - 170015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storms is expected this evening, and at least a few may become severe. Conditions remain favorable for a brief tornado or damaging gusts. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows rain-cooled air over much of southeast VA into northeast NC currently. However, also noted are mid 60s F dewpoints extending south of this region, and a plume of mid 70s F temperatures just west and ahead of the cold front. Given the progression of the cold front and a strong low-level jet this evening, some uptick in storm coverage is plausible. Hodographs from forecast soundings still show favorable hodographs for tornadoes and supercells, especially over the eastern half of VA and NC. As such, any robust storm that moves into the higher shear region may become capable of a tornado. Instability is not particularly strong, however, sufficient to support localized wind damage or tornado risk. ..Jewell/Bunting.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP... LAT...LON 35418043 36128033 36618005 37987905 38707856 39047805 38977760 38347671 37777640 35957602 34997759 34997987 35418043 Read more

MD 0237 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 54...55... FOR EASTERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0237 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0520 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Areas affected...Eastern New York into northeast Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54...55... Valid 162220Z - 170015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54, 55 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds remain possible as a line of storms moves into eastern New York state and northeast Pennsylvania. However, this line is expected to gradually weaken through the evening hours. Watch issuance downstream of WW 55 is not expected. DISCUSSION...Regional radars across NY and PA continue to show strong velocities within/behind a broken line of storms as it moves east/northeast and out of WW 55. This broken line continues to move out of the axis of sustainable buoyancy, and a downtrend in lightning counts has been noted over the past hour, indicative of an overall weakening trend. However, recent GOES imagery and lightning data have shown occasional transient updraft pulses embedded within the line, likely where storm-scale dynamic pressure perturbations are contributing to locally stronger updrafts. Surface observations within the past hour have measured gusts in the vicinity of these stronger segments between 40-45 knots, and the KBGM VWP recently sampled 50 knot winds near 1 km with the passage of the line. The overall weakening trend is expected to continue as the line migrates into a more stable air mass so watch issuance is not expected, but sporadic damaging gusts associated with these transient updrafts pulses will remain possible in the near term (next 1-2 hours) across eastern NY and northeast PA. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... LAT...LON 41207628 41487615 42087556 42467537 43097510 43537486 43877485 44187489 44547501 44707506 44887501 45017486 44987445 44887404 44567366 44207356 43467352 42837373 42137413 41537460 40977514 40957565 41047602 41207628 Read more

WW 0056 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0056 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0056 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0056 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 56 TORNADO NC VA 162340Z - 170500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 56 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 740 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern North Carolina Southern Virginia * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 740 PM until 100 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will move northeast across the watch area this evening, with a risk for a couple tornadoes, damaging gusts, and isolated large hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Richmond VA to 20 miles east southeast of Fayetteville NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Bunting Read more

MD 0237 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 54...55... FOR EASTERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0237 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0520 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Areas affected...Eastern New York into northeast Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54...55... Valid 162220Z - 170015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54, 55 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds remain possible as a line of storms moves into eastern New York state and northeast Pennsylvania. However, this line is expected to gradually weaken through the evening hours. Watch issuance downstream of WW 55 is not expected. DISCUSSION...Regional radars across NY and PA continue to show strong velocities within/behind a broken line of storms as it moves east/northeast and out of WW 55. This broken line continues to move out of the axis of sustainable buoyancy, and a downtrend in lightning counts has been noted over the past hour, indicative of an overall weakening trend. However, recent GOES imagery and lightning data have shown occasional transient updraft pulses embedded within the line, likely where storm-scale dynamic pressure perturbations are contributing to locally stronger updrafts. Surface observations within the past hour have measured gusts in the vicinity of these stronger segments between 40-45 knots, and the KBGM VWP recently sampled 50 knot winds near 1 km with the passage of the line. The overall weakening trend is expected to continue as the line migrates into a more stable air mass so watch issuance is not expected, but sporadic damaging gusts associated with these transient updrafts pulses will remain possible in the near term (next 1-2 hours) across eastern NY and northeast PA. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... LAT...LON 41207628 41487615 42087556 42467537 43097510 43537486 43877485 44187489 44547501 44707506 44887501 45017486 44987445 44887404 44567366 44207356 43467352 42837373 42137413 41537460 40977514 40957565 41047602 41207628 Read more

MD 0236 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0236 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0517 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Areas affected...parts of central and northeast North Carolina...much of central into eastern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 162217Z - 170015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storms is expected this evening, and at least a few may become severe. Conditions remain favorable for a brief tornado or damaging gusts. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows rain-cooled air over much of southeast VA into northeast NC currently. However, also noted are mid 60s F dewpoints extending south of this region, and a plume of mid 70s F temperatures just west and ahead of the cold front. Given the progression of the cold front and a strong low-level jet this evening, some uptick in storm coverage is plausible. Hodographs from forecast soundings still show favorable hodographs for tornadoes and supercells, especially over the eastern half of VA and NC. As such, any robust storm that moves into the higher shear region may become capable of a tornado. Instability is not particularly strong, however, sufficient to support localized wind damage or tornado risk. ..Jewell/Bunting.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP... LAT...LON 35418043 36128033 36618005 37987905 38707856 39047805 38977760 38347671 37777640 35957602 34997759 34997987 35418043 Read more

WW 0054 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SSU TO 20 SE AOO TO 30 NNW CXY TO 30 NNE IPT. ..MOORE..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC043-170040- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE WASHINGTON PAC041-055-057-099-170040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN FULTON PERRY VAC015-043-069-139-165-171-187-660-790-820-840-170040- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUGUSTA CLARKE FREDERICK PAGE ROCKINGHAM SHENANDOAH WARREN Read more

WW 0054 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SSU TO 20 SE AOO TO 30 NNW CXY TO 30 NNE IPT. ..MOORE..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC043-170040- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE WASHINGTON PAC041-055-057-099-170040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN FULTON PERRY VAC015-043-069-139-165-171-187-660-790-820-840-170040- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUGUSTA CLARKE FREDERICK PAGE ROCKINGHAM SHENANDOAH WARREN Read more

WW 0054 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SSU TO 20 SE AOO TO 30 NNW CXY TO 30 NNE IPT. ..MOORE..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC043-170040- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE WASHINGTON PAC041-055-057-099-170040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN FULTON PERRY VAC015-043-069-139-165-171-187-660-790-820-840-170040- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUGUSTA CLARKE FREDERICK PAGE ROCKINGHAM SHENANDOAH WARREN Read more

WW 0054 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SSU TO 20 SE AOO TO 30 NNW CXY TO 30 NNE IPT. ..MOORE..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC043-170040- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE WASHINGTON PAC041-055-057-099-170040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN FULTON PERRY VAC015-043-069-139-165-171-187-660-790-820-840-170040- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUGUSTA CLARKE FREDERICK PAGE ROCKINGHAM SHENANDOAH WARREN Read more

WW 54 TORNADO MD PA VA WV 161650Z - 162300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 54 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Maryland Western and Central Pennsylvania Northern Virginia Eastern West Virginia * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will move quickly northeastward this afternoon and evening, while posing a threat for mainly damaging winds with peak gusts up to 60-70 mph. A couple of line-embedded tornadoes may also occur. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles north of State College PA to 10 miles west southwest of Staunton VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 51...WW 52...WW 53... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector 22045. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0054 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SSU TO 20 SE AOO TO 30 NNW CXY TO 30 NNE IPT. ..MOORE..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC043-170040- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE WASHINGTON PAC041-055-057-099-170040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN FULTON PERRY VAC015-043-069-139-165-171-187-660-790-820-840-170040- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUGUSTA CLARKE FREDERICK PAGE ROCKINGHAM SHENANDOAH WARREN Read more

WW 0054 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SSU TO 20 SE AOO TO 30 NNW CXY TO 30 NNE IPT. ..MOORE..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC043-170040- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE WASHINGTON PAC041-055-057-099-170040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN FULTON PERRY VAC015-043-069-139-165-171-187-660-790-820-840-170040- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUGUSTA CLARKE FREDERICK PAGE ROCKINGHAM SHENANDOAH WARREN Read more

WW 54 TORNADO MD PA VA WV 161650Z - 162300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 54 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Maryland Western and Central Pennsylvania Northern Virginia Eastern West Virginia * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will move quickly northeastward this afternoon and evening, while posing a threat for mainly damaging winds with peak gusts up to 60-70 mph. A couple of line-embedded tornadoes may also occur. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles north of State College PA to 10 miles west southwest of Staunton VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 51...WW 52...WW 53... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector 22045. ...Gleason Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Mar 16 22:04:03 UTC 2025.

MD 0234 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VIRGINIA TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA BORDER
Mesoscale Discussion 0234 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Areas affected...portions of southern Virginia to the South Carolina and Georgia border Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162025Z - 162200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat could materialize with any storms that manage to develop ahead of the lee trough and cold front, behind earlier storms. Given the sparse severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Earlier day showers and thunderstorms (which posed a severe threat) have generally cleared much of the east-central CONUS. However, ample diurnal heating is occurring behind these storms, in advance of an eastward drifting lee trough and surface cold front. Surface temperatures are exceeding 75 F in some spots, with dewpoints in the mid 50s to 60s F ahead of the lee trough, boosting low-level lapse rates to 8 C/km and MLCAPE to 500-1000 J/kg. Deep-layer ascent continues to drift away from the lee of the Appalachians, reducing the chances for thunderstorm redevelopment. However, with 50-80 kts of effective bulk shear overspreading this modified airmass, any thunderstorm that manages to develop and become sustained may produce strong wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Given the expected isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 32918209 34348150 36928021 37447995 37707947 37737863 37417822 37097802 36697813 34587931 33168019 32498097 32498160 32638173 32918209 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather conditions are likely on D3 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. Another day of Critical fire weather concerns is likely on D6 - Friday again across the Southern Plains. ...D3-Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepen D3 - Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. As this occurs, strong surface low development is expected by Tuesday afternoon. Models are starting to come into better agreement on the eastern placement of the dryline and resulting dry conditions, which has led to confidence in expanding the 70 percent probabilities eastward into central/eastern Oklahoma and Kansas as well as north-central Texas. Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle, possibly extending into western and central Oklahoma for a couple of hours Tuesday afternoon. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last few days and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. Relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will be possible amid sustained winds 30+ mph. This will create a very dangerous conditions for fire spread on Tuesday afternoon. The dryline will mix eastward in the afternoon/evening on Tuesday, with relative humidity dropping rapidly amid very strong wind gusts along and ahead of the dryline/cold front along with a shift from southerly to southwest to westerly winds across portions of central Oklahoma and Kansas. This may lead to rapid changes in conditions and fire behavior near any ongoing fires. ...D4-D6 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D4 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D5/Thursday into D6/Friday. A belt of strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will overspread southern Plains again on Friday with surface low development expected across Kansas/Oklahoma. On D6 - Friday 40 percent probabilities were upgraded to 70 percent across western Texas into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. It is possible Elevated fire concerns continue D7 - Saturday and D8 - Sunday with strong post frontal northwesterly flow regime returning. ..Thornton.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather conditions are likely on D3 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. Another day of Critical fire weather concerns is likely on D6 - Friday again across the Southern Plains. ...D3-Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepen D3 - Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. As this occurs, strong surface low development is expected by Tuesday afternoon. Models are starting to come into better agreement on the eastern placement of the dryline and resulting dry conditions, which has led to confidence in expanding the 70 percent probabilities eastward into central/eastern Oklahoma and Kansas as well as north-central Texas. Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle, possibly extending into western and central Oklahoma for a couple of hours Tuesday afternoon. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last few days and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. Relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will be possible amid sustained winds 30+ mph. This will create a very dangerous conditions for fire spread on Tuesday afternoon. The dryline will mix eastward in the afternoon/evening on Tuesday, with relative humidity dropping rapidly amid very strong wind gusts along and ahead of the dryline/cold front along with a shift from southerly to southwest to westerly winds across portions of central Oklahoma and Kansas. This may lead to rapid changes in conditions and fire behavior near any ongoing fires. ...D4-D6 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D4 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D5/Thursday into D6/Friday. A belt of strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will overspread southern Plains again on Friday with surface low development expected across Kansas/Oklahoma. On D6 - Friday 40 percent probabilities were upgraded to 70 percent across western Texas into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. It is possible Elevated fire concerns continue D7 - Saturday and D8 - Sunday with strong post frontal northwesterly flow regime returning. ..Thornton.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather conditions are likely on D3 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. Another day of Critical fire weather concerns is likely on D6 - Friday again across the Southern Plains. ...D3-Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepen D3 - Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. As this occurs, strong surface low development is expected by Tuesday afternoon. Models are starting to come into better agreement on the eastern placement of the dryline and resulting dry conditions, which has led to confidence in expanding the 70 percent probabilities eastward into central/eastern Oklahoma and Kansas as well as north-central Texas. Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle, possibly extending into western and central Oklahoma for a couple of hours Tuesday afternoon. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last few days and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. Relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will be possible amid sustained winds 30+ mph. This will create a very dangerous conditions for fire spread on Tuesday afternoon. The dryline will mix eastward in the afternoon/evening on Tuesday, with relative humidity dropping rapidly amid very strong wind gusts along and ahead of the dryline/cold front along with a shift from southerly to southwest to westerly winds across portions of central Oklahoma and Kansas. This may lead to rapid changes in conditions and fire behavior near any ongoing fires. ...D4-D6 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D4 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D5/Thursday into D6/Friday. A belt of strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will overspread southern Plains again on Friday with surface low development expected across Kansas/Oklahoma. On D6 - Friday 40 percent probabilities were upgraded to 70 percent across western Texas into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. It is possible Elevated fire concerns continue D7 - Saturday and D8 - Sunday with strong post frontal northwesterly flow regime returning. ..Thornton.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more