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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT FROM EASTERN NE INTO IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible late tonight from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...Eastern NE/IA late tonight and early Wednesday... In advance of a pronounced midlevel shortwave trough over UT/northern AZ this morning, a surface lee cyclone will deepen across western KS and then move to far northwest MO by early Wednesday. Moisture return in the warm sector of this deepening cyclone will be limited by a prior frontal passage across the Gulf/northwest Caribbean, with only a narrow corridor of low-mid 50s boundary-layer dewpoints expected from eastern OK to far northwest MO. Though the warm sector will remain capped through the period, there could be sufficient ascent/moistening for elevated thunderstorm development by 06-12z from eastern NE across IA. Steep midlevel lapse rates and relatively cold midlevel temperatures will contribute to MUCAPE of 500-750 J/kg and the potential for isolated large hail (a few instances near 1 inch diameter) with elevated convection to the cool side of a baroclinic zone across eastern NE/IA. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT FROM EASTERN NE INTO IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible late tonight from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...Eastern NE/IA late tonight and early Wednesday... In advance of a pronounced midlevel shortwave trough over UT/northern AZ this morning, a surface lee cyclone will deepen across western KS and then move to far northwest MO by early Wednesday. Moisture return in the warm sector of this deepening cyclone will be limited by a prior frontal passage across the Gulf/northwest Caribbean, with only a narrow corridor of low-mid 50s boundary-layer dewpoints expected from eastern OK to far northwest MO. Though the warm sector will remain capped through the period, there could be sufficient ascent/moistening for elevated thunderstorm development by 06-12z from eastern NE across IA. Steep midlevel lapse rates and relatively cold midlevel temperatures will contribute to MUCAPE of 500-750 J/kg and the potential for isolated large hail (a few instances near 1 inch diameter) with elevated convection to the cool side of a baroclinic zone across eastern NE/IA. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT FROM EASTERN NE INTO IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible late tonight from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...Eastern NE/IA late tonight and early Wednesday... In advance of a pronounced midlevel shortwave trough over UT/northern AZ this morning, a surface lee cyclone will deepen across western KS and then move to far northwest MO by early Wednesday. Moisture return in the warm sector of this deepening cyclone will be limited by a prior frontal passage across the Gulf/northwest Caribbean, with only a narrow corridor of low-mid 50s boundary-layer dewpoints expected from eastern OK to far northwest MO. Though the warm sector will remain capped through the period, there could be sufficient ascent/moistening for elevated thunderstorm development by 06-12z from eastern NE across IA. Steep midlevel lapse rates and relatively cold midlevel temperatures will contribute to MUCAPE of 500-750 J/kg and the potential for isolated large hail (a few instances near 1 inch diameter) with elevated convection to the cool side of a baroclinic zone across eastern NE/IA. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT FROM EASTERN NE INTO IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible late tonight from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...Eastern NE/IA late tonight and early Wednesday... In advance of a pronounced midlevel shortwave trough over UT/northern AZ this morning, a surface lee cyclone will deepen across western KS and then move to far northwest MO by early Wednesday. Moisture return in the warm sector of this deepening cyclone will be limited by a prior frontal passage across the Gulf/northwest Caribbean, with only a narrow corridor of low-mid 50s boundary-layer dewpoints expected from eastern OK to far northwest MO. Though the warm sector will remain capped through the period, there could be sufficient ascent/moistening for elevated thunderstorm development by 06-12z from eastern NE across IA. Steep midlevel lapse rates and relatively cold midlevel temperatures will contribute to MUCAPE of 500-750 J/kg and the potential for isolated large hail (a few instances near 1 inch diameter) with elevated convection to the cool side of a baroclinic zone across eastern NE/IA. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT FROM EASTERN NE INTO IA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible late tonight from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...Eastern NE/IA late tonight and early Wednesday... In advance of a pronounced midlevel shortwave trough over UT/northern AZ this morning, a surface lee cyclone will deepen across western KS and then move to far northwest MO by early Wednesday. Moisture return in the warm sector of this deepening cyclone will be limited by a prior frontal passage across the Gulf/northwest Caribbean, with only a narrow corridor of low-mid 50s boundary-layer dewpoints expected from eastern OK to far northwest MO. Though the warm sector will remain capped through the period, there could be sufficient ascent/moistening for elevated thunderstorm development by 06-12z from eastern NE across IA. Steep midlevel lapse rates and relatively cold midlevel temperatures will contribute to MUCAPE of 500-750 J/kg and the potential for isolated large hail (a few instances near 1 inch diameter) with elevated convection to the cool side of a baroclinic zone across eastern NE/IA. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/18/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 5... On Friday and Saturday, a shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard, as a long fetch of west-northwest flow develops over much of the continental U.S. Isolated convection may develop ahead of the trough, but instability will likely be insufficient for a severe threat. In the wake of this system, low-level moisture return will begin along the western Gulf Coast. By Saturday, surface dewpoints are expected to be the upper 50s and lower 60s F over the Texas and Louisiana Coastal Plain. ...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8.... On Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to increase over eastern parts of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. Ahead of the trough, moderate instability is forecast to develop across much of a moist airmass located from the southeastern third of Texas northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex. On Sunday, thunderstorms with a threat for isolated large hail and severe gusts are expected to develop along the northern edge of the moist sector, with a complex of storms moving southeastward across the Sabine and lower Mississippi Valleys overnight. On Monday and Tuesday, the mid-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances southward to near the Gulf Coast. Although isolated storms could develop in the southern Gulf Coast states, limited large-scale ascent is expected to be problematic concerning an organized severe threat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 5... On Friday and Saturday, a shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard, as a long fetch of west-northwest flow develops over much of the continental U.S. Isolated convection may develop ahead of the trough, but instability will likely be insufficient for a severe threat. In the wake of this system, low-level moisture return will begin along the western Gulf Coast. By Saturday, surface dewpoints are expected to be the upper 50s and lower 60s F over the Texas and Louisiana Coastal Plain. ...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8.... On Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to increase over eastern parts of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. Ahead of the trough, moderate instability is forecast to develop across much of a moist airmass located from the southeastern third of Texas northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex. On Sunday, thunderstorms with a threat for isolated large hail and severe gusts are expected to develop along the northern edge of the moist sector, with a complex of storms moving southeastward across the Sabine and lower Mississippi Valleys overnight. On Monday and Tuesday, the mid-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances southward to near the Gulf Coast. Although isolated storms could develop in the southern Gulf Coast states, limited large-scale ascent is expected to be problematic concerning an organized severe threat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 5... On Friday and Saturday, a shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard, as a long fetch of west-northwest flow develops over much of the continental U.S. Isolated convection may develop ahead of the trough, but instability will likely be insufficient for a severe threat. In the wake of this system, low-level moisture return will begin along the western Gulf Coast. By Saturday, surface dewpoints are expected to be the upper 50s and lower 60s F over the Texas and Louisiana Coastal Plain. ...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8.... On Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to increase over eastern parts of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. Ahead of the trough, moderate instability is forecast to develop across much of a moist airmass located from the southeastern third of Texas northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex. On Sunday, thunderstorms with a threat for isolated large hail and severe gusts are expected to develop along the northern edge of the moist sector, with a complex of storms moving southeastward across the Sabine and lower Mississippi Valleys overnight. On Monday and Tuesday, the mid-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances southward to near the Gulf Coast. Although isolated storms could develop in the southern Gulf Coast states, limited large-scale ascent is expected to be problematic concerning an organized severe threat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 5... On Friday and Saturday, a shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard, as a long fetch of west-northwest flow develops over much of the continental U.S. Isolated convection may develop ahead of the trough, but instability will likely be insufficient for a severe threat. In the wake of this system, low-level moisture return will begin along the western Gulf Coast. By Saturday, surface dewpoints are expected to be the upper 50s and lower 60s F over the Texas and Louisiana Coastal Plain. ...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8.... On Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to increase over eastern parts of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. Ahead of the trough, moderate instability is forecast to develop across much of a moist airmass located from the southeastern third of Texas northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex. On Sunday, thunderstorms with a threat for isolated large hail and severe gusts are expected to develop along the northern edge of the moist sector, with a complex of storms moving southeastward across the Sabine and lower Mississippi Valleys overnight. On Monday and Tuesday, the mid-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances southward to near the Gulf Coast. Although isolated storms could develop in the southern Gulf Coast states, limited large-scale ascent is expected to be problematic concerning an organized severe threat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 5... On Friday and Saturday, a shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard, as a long fetch of west-northwest flow develops over much of the continental U.S. Isolated convection may develop ahead of the trough, but instability will likely be insufficient for a severe threat. In the wake of this system, low-level moisture return will begin along the western Gulf Coast. By Saturday, surface dewpoints are expected to be the upper 50s and lower 60s F over the Texas and Louisiana Coastal Plain. ...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8.... On Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to increase over eastern parts of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. Ahead of the trough, moderate instability is forecast to develop across much of a moist airmass located from the southeastern third of Texas northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex. On Sunday, thunderstorms with a threat for isolated large hail and severe gusts are expected to develop along the northern edge of the moist sector, with a complex of storms moving southeastward across the Sabine and lower Mississippi Valleys overnight. On Monday and Tuesday, the mid-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances southward to near the Gulf Coast. Although isolated storms could develop in the southern Gulf Coast states, limited large-scale ascent is expected to be problematic concerning an organized severe threat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 5... On Friday and Saturday, a shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard, as a long fetch of west-northwest flow develops over much of the continental U.S. Isolated convection may develop ahead of the trough, but instability will likely be insufficient for a severe threat. In the wake of this system, low-level moisture return will begin along the western Gulf Coast. By Saturday, surface dewpoints are expected to be the upper 50s and lower 60s F over the Texas and Louisiana Coastal Plain. ...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8.... On Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to increase over eastern parts of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. Ahead of the trough, moderate instability is forecast to develop across much of a moist airmass located from the southeastern third of Texas northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex. On Sunday, thunderstorms with a threat for isolated large hail and severe gusts are expected to develop along the northern edge of the moist sector, with a complex of storms moving southeastward across the Sabine and lower Mississippi Valleys overnight. On Monday and Tuesday, the mid-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances southward to near the Gulf Coast. Although isolated storms could develop in the southern Gulf Coast states, limited large-scale ascent is expected to be problematic concerning an organized severe threat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 5... On Friday and Saturday, a shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard, as a long fetch of west-northwest flow develops over much of the continental U.S. Isolated convection may develop ahead of the trough, but instability will likely be insufficient for a severe threat. In the wake of this system, low-level moisture return will begin along the western Gulf Coast. By Saturday, surface dewpoints are expected to be the upper 50s and lower 60s F over the Texas and Louisiana Coastal Plain. ...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8.... On Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to increase over eastern parts of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. Ahead of the trough, moderate instability is forecast to develop across much of a moist airmass located from the southeastern third of Texas northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex. On Sunday, thunderstorms with a threat for isolated large hail and severe gusts are expected to develop along the northern edge of the moist sector, with a complex of storms moving southeastward across the Sabine and lower Mississippi Valleys overnight. On Monday and Tuesday, the mid-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances southward to near the Gulf Coast. Although isolated storms could develop in the southern Gulf Coast states, limited large-scale ascent is expected to be problematic concerning an organized severe threat. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southward into eastern North Carolina. A severe threat is not expected. ...DISCUSSION... A pre-frontal trough will move from the Appalachians to the Atlantic Coastal plains on Thursday, as an associated mid-level trough moves through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Low-topped convection is forecast to develop near the pre-frontal trough in the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along an axis of strong low-level flow from the Mid-Atlantic southward into eastern North Carolina, mainly during the mid to late afternoon. However, MUCAPE is forecast to remain below 200 J/kg along the instability axis, which should limit the severe potential. ..Broyles.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southward into eastern North Carolina. A severe threat is not expected. ...DISCUSSION... A pre-frontal trough will move from the Appalachians to the Atlantic Coastal plains on Thursday, as an associated mid-level trough moves through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Low-topped convection is forecast to develop near the pre-frontal trough in the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along an axis of strong low-level flow from the Mid-Atlantic southward into eastern North Carolina, mainly during the mid to late afternoon. However, MUCAPE is forecast to remain below 200 J/kg along the instability axis, which should limit the severe potential. ..Broyles.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southward into eastern North Carolina. A severe threat is not expected. ...DISCUSSION... A pre-frontal trough will move from the Appalachians to the Atlantic Coastal plains on Thursday, as an associated mid-level trough moves through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Low-topped convection is forecast to develop near the pre-frontal trough in the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along an axis of strong low-level flow from the Mid-Atlantic southward into eastern North Carolina, mainly during the mid to late afternoon. However, MUCAPE is forecast to remain below 200 J/kg along the instability axis, which should limit the severe potential. ..Broyles.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southward into eastern North Carolina. A severe threat is not expected. ...DISCUSSION... A pre-frontal trough will move from the Appalachians to the Atlantic Coastal plains on Thursday, as an associated mid-level trough moves through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Low-topped convection is forecast to develop near the pre-frontal trough in the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along an axis of strong low-level flow from the Mid-Atlantic southward into eastern North Carolina, mainly during the mid to late afternoon. However, MUCAPE is forecast to remain below 200 J/kg along the instability axis, which should limit the severe potential. ..Broyles.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southward into eastern North Carolina. A severe threat is not expected. ...DISCUSSION... A pre-frontal trough will move from the Appalachians to the Atlantic Coastal plains on Thursday, as an associated mid-level trough moves through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Low-topped convection is forecast to develop near the pre-frontal trough in the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along an axis of strong low-level flow from the Mid-Atlantic southward into eastern North Carolina, mainly during the mid to late afternoon. However, MUCAPE is forecast to remain below 200 J/kg along the instability axis, which should limit the severe potential. ..Broyles.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southward into eastern North Carolina. A severe threat is not expected. ...DISCUSSION... A pre-frontal trough will move from the Appalachians to the Atlantic Coastal plains on Thursday, as an associated mid-level trough moves through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Low-topped convection is forecast to develop near the pre-frontal trough in the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along an axis of strong low-level flow from the Mid-Atlantic southward into eastern North Carolina, mainly during the mid to late afternoon. However, MUCAPE is forecast to remain below 200 J/kg along the instability axis, which should limit the severe potential. ..Broyles.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to persist across the southern High Plains into central and southern Texas Wednesday afternoon. More regional fire weather concerns are anticipated across parts of the upper OH River Valley. ...Southern Plains... A Pacific cold front attendant to a deep surface cyclone is expected to push east/southeast across the southern Plains late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. In its wake, cool, but very dry air will overspread eastern NM into OK and TX. Temperature reductions will be muted with southward extent, resulting in a swath of RH minimums between 15-25% from eastern NM to eastern TX. Although the surface low will be lifting to the northeast away from the region, a lingering belt of 20-30 mph winds between 850-700 mb will promote breezy conditions at the surface by mid-afternoon. Ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for sustained winds near 20 mph from the Davis Mountains region southeastward towards the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley, though critical wind speeds may emerge as far north as the lee of the Sacramento mountains. More broadly across TX, wind speeds between 15-20 mph will support an expansive swath of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Upper OH River Valley... Southerly winds are expected to strengthen to 15-20 mph ahead of an approaching surface low across much of the OH River Valley. This will induce a downslope flow regime off the northern slopes of the Appalachians with forecast guidance suggesting RH values will fall into the 20-30% range by mid-afternoon across parts of KY, WV, OH, and PA. Although elevated meteorological conditions may be somewhat expansive, the Elevated risk area is confined to locations that received relatively little rainfall over the past few days and will have a higher probability of receptive fuels. ..Moore.. 03/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to persist across the southern High Plains into central and southern Texas Wednesday afternoon. More regional fire weather concerns are anticipated across parts of the upper OH River Valley. ...Southern Plains... A Pacific cold front attendant to a deep surface cyclone is expected to push east/southeast across the southern Plains late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. In its wake, cool, but very dry air will overspread eastern NM into OK and TX. Temperature reductions will be muted with southward extent, resulting in a swath of RH minimums between 15-25% from eastern NM to eastern TX. Although the surface low will be lifting to the northeast away from the region, a lingering belt of 20-30 mph winds between 850-700 mb will promote breezy conditions at the surface by mid-afternoon. Ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for sustained winds near 20 mph from the Davis Mountains region southeastward towards the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley, though critical wind speeds may emerge as far north as the lee of the Sacramento mountains. More broadly across TX, wind speeds between 15-20 mph will support an expansive swath of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Upper OH River Valley... Southerly winds are expected to strengthen to 15-20 mph ahead of an approaching surface low across much of the OH River Valley. This will induce a downslope flow regime off the northern slopes of the Appalachians with forecast guidance suggesting RH values will fall into the 20-30% range by mid-afternoon across parts of KY, WV, OH, and PA. Although elevated meteorological conditions may be somewhat expansive, the Elevated risk area is confined to locations that received relatively little rainfall over the past few days and will have a higher probability of receptive fuels. ..Moore.. 03/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more