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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were made with this update. A swath of showers with isolated/embedded lightning is tracking east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the front this afternoon. A few strong gusts (40-50 mph) may accompany this activity as it overspreads portions of northeastern NC and southeastern VA -- where continued diurnal heating and steepening low-level lapse rates will aid in downward momentum transport. However, the overall risk of severe wind gusts still appears too low for probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... Strong heating ahead of an eastward-developing surface front will allow temperatures to continue climbing into the 70s F this afternoon. Boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, with surface dewpoints generally reaching the mid/upper 50s F in a narrow corridor just as the surface front arrives. Morning balloon observations from GSO, RNK, IAD, and WAL show very dry midlevels as well. While some midlevel moistening will occur as strong midlevel southwesterlies overspread the region, overall airmass modification will remain poor. MLCAPE values are expected to remain stunted, generally less than 100-200 J/kg. This may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes as convection develops during the mid afternoon along the surface front. A well-mixed boundary layer to near 850 mb, where 25-40 kt of flow is forecast, is evident in forecast soundings. This may support a few strong gusts to 40 kt, but very poor thermodynamic profiles suggest potential for severe thunderstorms should remain low, precluding severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were made with this update. A swath of showers with isolated/embedded lightning is tracking east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the front this afternoon. A few strong gusts (40-50 mph) may accompany this activity as it overspreads portions of northeastern NC and southeastern VA -- where continued diurnal heating and steepening low-level lapse rates will aid in downward momentum transport. However, the overall risk of severe wind gusts still appears too low for probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... Strong heating ahead of an eastward-developing surface front will allow temperatures to continue climbing into the 70s F this afternoon. Boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, with surface dewpoints generally reaching the mid/upper 50s F in a narrow corridor just as the surface front arrives. Morning balloon observations from GSO, RNK, IAD, and WAL show very dry midlevels as well. While some midlevel moistening will occur as strong midlevel southwesterlies overspread the region, overall airmass modification will remain poor. MLCAPE values are expected to remain stunted, generally less than 100-200 J/kg. This may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes as convection develops during the mid afternoon along the surface front. A well-mixed boundary layer to near 850 mb, where 25-40 kt of flow is forecast, is evident in forecast soundings. This may support a few strong gusts to 40 kt, but very poor thermodynamic profiles suggest potential for severe thunderstorms should remain low, precluding severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were made with this update. A swath of showers with isolated/embedded lightning is tracking east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the front this afternoon. A few strong gusts (40-50 mph) may accompany this activity as it overspreads portions of northeastern NC and southeastern VA -- where continued diurnal heating and steepening low-level lapse rates will aid in downward momentum transport. However, the overall risk of severe wind gusts still appears too low for probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... Strong heating ahead of an eastward-developing surface front will allow temperatures to continue climbing into the 70s F this afternoon. Boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, with surface dewpoints generally reaching the mid/upper 50s F in a narrow corridor just as the surface front arrives. Morning balloon observations from GSO, RNK, IAD, and WAL show very dry midlevels as well. While some midlevel moistening will occur as strong midlevel southwesterlies overspread the region, overall airmass modification will remain poor. MLCAPE values are expected to remain stunted, generally less than 100-200 J/kg. This may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes as convection develops during the mid afternoon along the surface front. A well-mixed boundary layer to near 850 mb, where 25-40 kt of flow is forecast, is evident in forecast soundings. This may support a few strong gusts to 40 kt, but very poor thermodynamic profiles suggest potential for severe thunderstorms should remain low, precluding severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were made with this update. A swath of showers with isolated/embedded lightning is tracking east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the front this afternoon. A few strong gusts (40-50 mph) may accompany this activity as it overspreads portions of northeastern NC and southeastern VA -- where continued diurnal heating and steepening low-level lapse rates will aid in downward momentum transport. However, the overall risk of severe wind gusts still appears too low for probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... Strong heating ahead of an eastward-developing surface front will allow temperatures to continue climbing into the 70s F this afternoon. Boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, with surface dewpoints generally reaching the mid/upper 50s F in a narrow corridor just as the surface front arrives. Morning balloon observations from GSO, RNK, IAD, and WAL show very dry midlevels as well. While some midlevel moistening will occur as strong midlevel southwesterlies overspread the region, overall airmass modification will remain poor. MLCAPE values are expected to remain stunted, generally less than 100-200 J/kg. This may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes as convection develops during the mid afternoon along the surface front. A well-mixed boundary layer to near 850 mb, where 25-40 kt of flow is forecast, is evident in forecast soundings. This may support a few strong gusts to 40 kt, but very poor thermodynamic profiles suggest potential for severe thunderstorms should remain low, precluding severe probabilities. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...North-Central Texas... A Critical area was introduced across north-central Texas with the update to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Along and behind the trailing cold front across north-central Texas, strong surface winds are expected. While some moisture return is expected ahead of the front, much drier air is expected to filter in from the west-southwest as the front shifts eastward. An area of overlap of sustained winds around 20 mph and relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent will bring potential for Critical fire weather conditions amid fuels that are very dry and receptive to fire spread. ...Southeastern Florida Peninsula... Lighter winds are progged across southeastern Florida on Friday, relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent will be possible. A brief period of locally Elevated conditions will be possible before winds shift to a more northeasterly trajectory bringing onshore flow and improving relative humidity. Several large fires are ongoing across this area on D1 - Thursday. Otherwise, no changes were made to the broader Elevated areas. See previous outlook for more information. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to linger across the Plains and parts of the Midwest on Friday as a dry cold front pushes southeastward across the central CONUS. The weak upper trough currently pushing into the Pacific Northwest and an attendant surface low are forecast to eject into the Plains early Friday, reaching the Great Lakes by evening. As this occurs, a trailing surface trough/cold front will migrate southeast into the central and southern Plains. Both pre- and post-frontal winds are forecast to reach into the 15-25 mph range across a broad swath of the central CONUS. A dry return flow regime is expected across central TX/OK and into KS/MO ahead of the front, while an influx of dry post-frontal air will promote RH values in the teens across NE, KS, CO, and NM. ...Southern Plains into the mid-MS River Valley... The recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted any appreciable moisture well offshore with low 30 dewpoints noted along the TX Gulf coast as of 05 UTC. Moisture return through Friday is expected to be minimal, and guidance that typically over-mixes the boundary layer will likely better capture RH trends within the dry return flow regime. As such, the current forecast relies heavily on RAP/HRRR solutions that depict widespread 15-20 mph winds and 20-25% RH minimums ahead of the front, including into northeast AR and MO where active fires were observed on Wednesday. Ensemble guidance appears to support these solutions with 50-70% probabilities for sustained winds above 15 mph across this region. ...High Plains... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be fairly widespread behind the front from the NE Panhandle southward into the southern High Plains. Downslope warming/drying should yield the driest conditions with RH values in the 15-25% range and widespread wind speed between 15-25 mph. Although continuous elevated wind/RH conditions are expected, the risk area is bifurcated across parts of eastern CO and KS where substantial rain/snow has fallen over the past 24 hours. Fuel trends will be monitored across these regions, and an expansion of the risk area(s) may be needed as snow melts and grasses dry over the next 48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...North-Central Texas... A Critical area was introduced across north-central Texas with the update to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Along and behind the trailing cold front across north-central Texas, strong surface winds are expected. While some moisture return is expected ahead of the front, much drier air is expected to filter in from the west-southwest as the front shifts eastward. An area of overlap of sustained winds around 20 mph and relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent will bring potential for Critical fire weather conditions amid fuels that are very dry and receptive to fire spread. ...Southeastern Florida Peninsula... Lighter winds are progged across southeastern Florida on Friday, relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent will be possible. A brief period of locally Elevated conditions will be possible before winds shift to a more northeasterly trajectory bringing onshore flow and improving relative humidity. Several large fires are ongoing across this area on D1 - Thursday. Otherwise, no changes were made to the broader Elevated areas. See previous outlook for more information. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to linger across the Plains and parts of the Midwest on Friday as a dry cold front pushes southeastward across the central CONUS. The weak upper trough currently pushing into the Pacific Northwest and an attendant surface low are forecast to eject into the Plains early Friday, reaching the Great Lakes by evening. As this occurs, a trailing surface trough/cold front will migrate southeast into the central and southern Plains. Both pre- and post-frontal winds are forecast to reach into the 15-25 mph range across a broad swath of the central CONUS. A dry return flow regime is expected across central TX/OK and into KS/MO ahead of the front, while an influx of dry post-frontal air will promote RH values in the teens across NE, KS, CO, and NM. ...Southern Plains into the mid-MS River Valley... The recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted any appreciable moisture well offshore with low 30 dewpoints noted along the TX Gulf coast as of 05 UTC. Moisture return through Friday is expected to be minimal, and guidance that typically over-mixes the boundary layer will likely better capture RH trends within the dry return flow regime. As such, the current forecast relies heavily on RAP/HRRR solutions that depict widespread 15-20 mph winds and 20-25% RH minimums ahead of the front, including into northeast AR and MO where active fires were observed on Wednesday. Ensemble guidance appears to support these solutions with 50-70% probabilities for sustained winds above 15 mph across this region. ...High Plains... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be fairly widespread behind the front from the NE Panhandle southward into the southern High Plains. Downslope warming/drying should yield the driest conditions with RH values in the 15-25% range and widespread wind speed between 15-25 mph. Although continuous elevated wind/RH conditions are expected, the risk area is bifurcated across parts of eastern CO and KS where substantial rain/snow has fallen over the past 24 hours. Fuel trends will be monitored across these regions, and an expansion of the risk area(s) may be needed as snow melts and grasses dry over the next 48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...North-Central Texas... A Critical area was introduced across north-central Texas with the update to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Along and behind the trailing cold front across north-central Texas, strong surface winds are expected. While some moisture return is expected ahead of the front, much drier air is expected to filter in from the west-southwest as the front shifts eastward. An area of overlap of sustained winds around 20 mph and relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent will bring potential for Critical fire weather conditions amid fuels that are very dry and receptive to fire spread. ...Southeastern Florida Peninsula... Lighter winds are progged across southeastern Florida on Friday, relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent will be possible. A brief period of locally Elevated conditions will be possible before winds shift to a more northeasterly trajectory bringing onshore flow and improving relative humidity. Several large fires are ongoing across this area on D1 - Thursday. Otherwise, no changes were made to the broader Elevated areas. See previous outlook for more information. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to linger across the Plains and parts of the Midwest on Friday as a dry cold front pushes southeastward across the central CONUS. The weak upper trough currently pushing into the Pacific Northwest and an attendant surface low are forecast to eject into the Plains early Friday, reaching the Great Lakes by evening. As this occurs, a trailing surface trough/cold front will migrate southeast into the central and southern Plains. Both pre- and post-frontal winds are forecast to reach into the 15-25 mph range across a broad swath of the central CONUS. A dry return flow regime is expected across central TX/OK and into KS/MO ahead of the front, while an influx of dry post-frontal air will promote RH values in the teens across NE, KS, CO, and NM. ...Southern Plains into the mid-MS River Valley... The recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted any appreciable moisture well offshore with low 30 dewpoints noted along the TX Gulf coast as of 05 UTC. Moisture return through Friday is expected to be minimal, and guidance that typically over-mixes the boundary layer will likely better capture RH trends within the dry return flow regime. As such, the current forecast relies heavily on RAP/HRRR solutions that depict widespread 15-20 mph winds and 20-25% RH minimums ahead of the front, including into northeast AR and MO where active fires were observed on Wednesday. Ensemble guidance appears to support these solutions with 50-70% probabilities for sustained winds above 15 mph across this region. ...High Plains... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be fairly widespread behind the front from the NE Panhandle southward into the southern High Plains. Downslope warming/drying should yield the driest conditions with RH values in the 15-25% range and widespread wind speed between 15-25 mph. Although continuous elevated wind/RH conditions are expected, the risk area is bifurcated across parts of eastern CO and KS where substantial rain/snow has fallen over the past 24 hours. Fuel trends will be monitored across these regions, and an expansion of the risk area(s) may be needed as snow melts and grasses dry over the next 48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...North-Central Texas... A Critical area was introduced across north-central Texas with the update to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Along and behind the trailing cold front across north-central Texas, strong surface winds are expected. While some moisture return is expected ahead of the front, much drier air is expected to filter in from the west-southwest as the front shifts eastward. An area of overlap of sustained winds around 20 mph and relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent will bring potential for Critical fire weather conditions amid fuels that are very dry and receptive to fire spread. ...Southeastern Florida Peninsula... Lighter winds are progged across southeastern Florida on Friday, relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent will be possible. A brief period of locally Elevated conditions will be possible before winds shift to a more northeasterly trajectory bringing onshore flow and improving relative humidity. Several large fires are ongoing across this area on D1 - Thursday. Otherwise, no changes were made to the broader Elevated areas. See previous outlook for more information. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to linger across the Plains and parts of the Midwest on Friday as a dry cold front pushes southeastward across the central CONUS. The weak upper trough currently pushing into the Pacific Northwest and an attendant surface low are forecast to eject into the Plains early Friday, reaching the Great Lakes by evening. As this occurs, a trailing surface trough/cold front will migrate southeast into the central and southern Plains. Both pre- and post-frontal winds are forecast to reach into the 15-25 mph range across a broad swath of the central CONUS. A dry return flow regime is expected across central TX/OK and into KS/MO ahead of the front, while an influx of dry post-frontal air will promote RH values in the teens across NE, KS, CO, and NM. ...Southern Plains into the mid-MS River Valley... The recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted any appreciable moisture well offshore with low 30 dewpoints noted along the TX Gulf coast as of 05 UTC. Moisture return through Friday is expected to be minimal, and guidance that typically over-mixes the boundary layer will likely better capture RH trends within the dry return flow regime. As such, the current forecast relies heavily on RAP/HRRR solutions that depict widespread 15-20 mph winds and 20-25% RH minimums ahead of the front, including into northeast AR and MO where active fires were observed on Wednesday. Ensemble guidance appears to support these solutions with 50-70% probabilities for sustained winds above 15 mph across this region. ...High Plains... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be fairly widespread behind the front from the NE Panhandle southward into the southern High Plains. Downslope warming/drying should yield the driest conditions with RH values in the 15-25% range and widespread wind speed between 15-25 mph. Although continuous elevated wind/RH conditions are expected, the risk area is bifurcated across parts of eastern CO and KS where substantial rain/snow has fallen over the past 24 hours. Fuel trends will be monitored across these regions, and an expansion of the risk area(s) may be needed as snow melts and grasses dry over the next 48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...North-Central Texas... A Critical area was introduced across north-central Texas with the update to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Along and behind the trailing cold front across north-central Texas, strong surface winds are expected. While some moisture return is expected ahead of the front, much drier air is expected to filter in from the west-southwest as the front shifts eastward. An area of overlap of sustained winds around 20 mph and relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent will bring potential for Critical fire weather conditions amid fuels that are very dry and receptive to fire spread. ...Southeastern Florida Peninsula... Lighter winds are progged across southeastern Florida on Friday, relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent will be possible. A brief period of locally Elevated conditions will be possible before winds shift to a more northeasterly trajectory bringing onshore flow and improving relative humidity. Several large fires are ongoing across this area on D1 - Thursday. Otherwise, no changes were made to the broader Elevated areas. See previous outlook for more information. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to linger across the Plains and parts of the Midwest on Friday as a dry cold front pushes southeastward across the central CONUS. The weak upper trough currently pushing into the Pacific Northwest and an attendant surface low are forecast to eject into the Plains early Friday, reaching the Great Lakes by evening. As this occurs, a trailing surface trough/cold front will migrate southeast into the central and southern Plains. Both pre- and post-frontal winds are forecast to reach into the 15-25 mph range across a broad swath of the central CONUS. A dry return flow regime is expected across central TX/OK and into KS/MO ahead of the front, while an influx of dry post-frontal air will promote RH values in the teens across NE, KS, CO, and NM. ...Southern Plains into the mid-MS River Valley... The recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted any appreciable moisture well offshore with low 30 dewpoints noted along the TX Gulf coast as of 05 UTC. Moisture return through Friday is expected to be minimal, and guidance that typically over-mixes the boundary layer will likely better capture RH trends within the dry return flow regime. As such, the current forecast relies heavily on RAP/HRRR solutions that depict widespread 15-20 mph winds and 20-25% RH minimums ahead of the front, including into northeast AR and MO where active fires were observed on Wednesday. Ensemble guidance appears to support these solutions with 50-70% probabilities for sustained winds above 15 mph across this region. ...High Plains... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be fairly widespread behind the front from the NE Panhandle southward into the southern High Plains. Downslope warming/drying should yield the driest conditions with RH values in the 15-25% range and widespread wind speed between 15-25 mph. Although continuous elevated wind/RH conditions are expected, the risk area is bifurcated across parts of eastern CO and KS where substantial rain/snow has fallen over the past 24 hours. Fuel trends will be monitored across these regions, and an expansion of the risk area(s) may be needed as snow melts and grasses dry over the next 48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...North-Central Texas... A Critical area was introduced across north-central Texas with the update to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Along and behind the trailing cold front across north-central Texas, strong surface winds are expected. While some moisture return is expected ahead of the front, much drier air is expected to filter in from the west-southwest as the front shifts eastward. An area of overlap of sustained winds around 20 mph and relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent will bring potential for Critical fire weather conditions amid fuels that are very dry and receptive to fire spread. ...Southeastern Florida Peninsula... Lighter winds are progged across southeastern Florida on Friday, relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent will be possible. A brief period of locally Elevated conditions will be possible before winds shift to a more northeasterly trajectory bringing onshore flow and improving relative humidity. Several large fires are ongoing across this area on D1 - Thursday. Otherwise, no changes were made to the broader Elevated areas. See previous outlook for more information. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to linger across the Plains and parts of the Midwest on Friday as a dry cold front pushes southeastward across the central CONUS. The weak upper trough currently pushing into the Pacific Northwest and an attendant surface low are forecast to eject into the Plains early Friday, reaching the Great Lakes by evening. As this occurs, a trailing surface trough/cold front will migrate southeast into the central and southern Plains. Both pre- and post-frontal winds are forecast to reach into the 15-25 mph range across a broad swath of the central CONUS. A dry return flow regime is expected across central TX/OK and into KS/MO ahead of the front, while an influx of dry post-frontal air will promote RH values in the teens across NE, KS, CO, and NM. ...Southern Plains into the mid-MS River Valley... The recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted any appreciable moisture well offshore with low 30 dewpoints noted along the TX Gulf coast as of 05 UTC. Moisture return through Friday is expected to be minimal, and guidance that typically over-mixes the boundary layer will likely better capture RH trends within the dry return flow regime. As such, the current forecast relies heavily on RAP/HRRR solutions that depict widespread 15-20 mph winds and 20-25% RH minimums ahead of the front, including into northeast AR and MO where active fires were observed on Wednesday. Ensemble guidance appears to support these solutions with 50-70% probabilities for sustained winds above 15 mph across this region. ...High Plains... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be fairly widespread behind the front from the NE Panhandle southward into the southern High Plains. Downslope warming/drying should yield the driest conditions with RH values in the 15-25% range and widespread wind speed between 15-25 mph. Although continuous elevated wind/RH conditions are expected, the risk area is bifurcated across parts of eastern CO and KS where substantial rain/snow has fallen over the past 24 hours. Fuel trends will be monitored across these regions, and an expansion of the risk area(s) may be needed as snow melts and grasses dry over the next 48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...North-Central Texas... A Critical area was introduced across north-central Texas with the update to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Along and behind the trailing cold front across north-central Texas, strong surface winds are expected. While some moisture return is expected ahead of the front, much drier air is expected to filter in from the west-southwest as the front shifts eastward. An area of overlap of sustained winds around 20 mph and relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent will bring potential for Critical fire weather conditions amid fuels that are very dry and receptive to fire spread. ...Southeastern Florida Peninsula... Lighter winds are progged across southeastern Florida on Friday, relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent will be possible. A brief period of locally Elevated conditions will be possible before winds shift to a more northeasterly trajectory bringing onshore flow and improving relative humidity. Several large fires are ongoing across this area on D1 - Thursday. Otherwise, no changes were made to the broader Elevated areas. See previous outlook for more information. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to linger across the Plains and parts of the Midwest on Friday as a dry cold front pushes southeastward across the central CONUS. The weak upper trough currently pushing into the Pacific Northwest and an attendant surface low are forecast to eject into the Plains early Friday, reaching the Great Lakes by evening. As this occurs, a trailing surface trough/cold front will migrate southeast into the central and southern Plains. Both pre- and post-frontal winds are forecast to reach into the 15-25 mph range across a broad swath of the central CONUS. A dry return flow regime is expected across central TX/OK and into KS/MO ahead of the front, while an influx of dry post-frontal air will promote RH values in the teens across NE, KS, CO, and NM. ...Southern Plains into the mid-MS River Valley... The recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted any appreciable moisture well offshore with low 30 dewpoints noted along the TX Gulf coast as of 05 UTC. Moisture return through Friday is expected to be minimal, and guidance that typically over-mixes the boundary layer will likely better capture RH trends within the dry return flow regime. As such, the current forecast relies heavily on RAP/HRRR solutions that depict widespread 15-20 mph winds and 20-25% RH minimums ahead of the front, including into northeast AR and MO where active fires were observed on Wednesday. Ensemble guidance appears to support these solutions with 50-70% probabilities for sustained winds above 15 mph across this region. ...High Plains... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be fairly widespread behind the front from the NE Panhandle southward into the southern High Plains. Downslope warming/drying should yield the driest conditions with RH values in the 15-25% range and widespread wind speed between 15-25 mph. Although continuous elevated wind/RH conditions are expected, the risk area is bifurcated across parts of eastern CO and KS where substantial rain/snow has fallen over the past 24 hours. Fuel trends will be monitored across these regions, and an expansion of the risk area(s) may be needed as snow melts and grasses dry over the next 48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF MO...EASTERN OK/KS...AND NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, mainly from large hail, are possible on Saturday night in/near the Ozark Plateau. ...MO/OK/KS/AR... No change to the prior outlook of level 1-MRGL risk. Elevated severe hail remains possible Saturday evening into the overnight, with potential for a mesoscale area of level 2-SLGT in a future outlook. The next in a series of shortwave troughs progressing from the northern Rockies into the North-Central States will yield modified moisture recovery from the western Gulf, beneath an increasingly expansive/stout EML. The degree of moistening depicted in some models is questionable owing to predominately 20s/30s surface dew points at present along the TX Gulf Coast. Elevated buoyancy will likely remain weak with MUCAPE at/below 1000 J/kg. But strengthening forcing for ascent should support elevated thunderstorms as early as Saturday evening across the Ozark Plateau, increasing in coverage during the night. Within a predominately westerly mid to upper wind profile, given the geometry of the northern Great Plains shortwave trough, favorable speed shear should exist for at least a few elevated supercells. The potentially limited buoyancy and perhaps a more widespread cluster-type convective mode may modulate the overall coverage/intensity of the large hail threat. The southern extent of convective development may have a sharp cutoff beyond the Ozarks given the expected strength of the EML and neutral mid-level height change through 12Z Sunday. ..Grams.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF MO...EASTERN OK/KS...AND NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, mainly from large hail, are possible on Saturday night in/near the Ozark Plateau. ...MO/OK/KS/AR... No change to the prior outlook of level 1-MRGL risk. Elevated severe hail remains possible Saturday evening into the overnight, with potential for a mesoscale area of level 2-SLGT in a future outlook. The next in a series of shortwave troughs progressing from the northern Rockies into the North-Central States will yield modified moisture recovery from the western Gulf, beneath an increasingly expansive/stout EML. The degree of moistening depicted in some models is questionable owing to predominately 20s/30s surface dew points at present along the TX Gulf Coast. Elevated buoyancy will likely remain weak with MUCAPE at/below 1000 J/kg. But strengthening forcing for ascent should support elevated thunderstorms as early as Saturday evening across the Ozark Plateau, increasing in coverage during the night. Within a predominately westerly mid to upper wind profile, given the geometry of the northern Great Plains shortwave trough, favorable speed shear should exist for at least a few elevated supercells. The potentially limited buoyancy and perhaps a more widespread cluster-type convective mode may modulate the overall coverage/intensity of the large hail threat. The southern extent of convective development may have a sharp cutoff beyond the Ozarks given the expected strength of the EML and neutral mid-level height change through 12Z Sunday. ..Grams.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF MO...EASTERN OK/KS...AND NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, mainly from large hail, are possible on Saturday night in/near the Ozark Plateau. ...MO/OK/KS/AR... No change to the prior outlook of level 1-MRGL risk. Elevated severe hail remains possible Saturday evening into the overnight, with potential for a mesoscale area of level 2-SLGT in a future outlook. The next in a series of shortwave troughs progressing from the northern Rockies into the North-Central States will yield modified moisture recovery from the western Gulf, beneath an increasingly expansive/stout EML. The degree of moistening depicted in some models is questionable owing to predominately 20s/30s surface dew points at present along the TX Gulf Coast. Elevated buoyancy will likely remain weak with MUCAPE at/below 1000 J/kg. But strengthening forcing for ascent should support elevated thunderstorms as early as Saturday evening across the Ozark Plateau, increasing in coverage during the night. Within a predominately westerly mid to upper wind profile, given the geometry of the northern Great Plains shortwave trough, favorable speed shear should exist for at least a few elevated supercells. The potentially limited buoyancy and perhaps a more widespread cluster-type convective mode may modulate the overall coverage/intensity of the large hail threat. The southern extent of convective development may have a sharp cutoff beyond the Ozarks given the expected strength of the EML and neutral mid-level height change through 12Z Sunday. ..Grams.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF MO...EASTERN OK/KS...AND NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, mainly from large hail, are possible on Saturday night in/near the Ozark Plateau. ...MO/OK/KS/AR... No change to the prior outlook of level 1-MRGL risk. Elevated severe hail remains possible Saturday evening into the overnight, with potential for a mesoscale area of level 2-SLGT in a future outlook. The next in a series of shortwave troughs progressing from the northern Rockies into the North-Central States will yield modified moisture recovery from the western Gulf, beneath an increasingly expansive/stout EML. The degree of moistening depicted in some models is questionable owing to predominately 20s/30s surface dew points at present along the TX Gulf Coast. Elevated buoyancy will likely remain weak with MUCAPE at/below 1000 J/kg. But strengthening forcing for ascent should support elevated thunderstorms as early as Saturday evening across the Ozark Plateau, increasing in coverage during the night. Within a predominately westerly mid to upper wind profile, given the geometry of the northern Great Plains shortwave trough, favorable speed shear should exist for at least a few elevated supercells. The potentially limited buoyancy and perhaps a more widespread cluster-type convective mode may modulate the overall coverage/intensity of the large hail threat. The southern extent of convective development may have a sharp cutoff beyond the Ozarks given the expected strength of the EML and neutral mid-level height change through 12Z Sunday. ..Grams.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF MO...EASTERN OK/KS...AND NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, mainly from large hail, are possible on Saturday night in/near the Ozark Plateau. ...MO/OK/KS/AR... No change to the prior outlook of level 1-MRGL risk. Elevated severe hail remains possible Saturday evening into the overnight, with potential for a mesoscale area of level 2-SLGT in a future outlook. The next in a series of shortwave troughs progressing from the northern Rockies into the North-Central States will yield modified moisture recovery from the western Gulf, beneath an increasingly expansive/stout EML. The degree of moistening depicted in some models is questionable owing to predominately 20s/30s surface dew points at present along the TX Gulf Coast. Elevated buoyancy will likely remain weak with MUCAPE at/below 1000 J/kg. But strengthening forcing for ascent should support elevated thunderstorms as early as Saturday evening across the Ozark Plateau, increasing in coverage during the night. Within a predominately westerly mid to upper wind profile, given the geometry of the northern Great Plains shortwave trough, favorable speed shear should exist for at least a few elevated supercells. The potentially limited buoyancy and perhaps a more widespread cluster-type convective mode may modulate the overall coverage/intensity of the large hail threat. The southern extent of convective development may have a sharp cutoff beyond the Ozarks given the expected strength of the EML and neutral mid-level height change through 12Z Sunday. ..Grams.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF MO...EASTERN OK/KS...AND NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, mainly from large hail, are possible on Saturday night in/near the Ozark Plateau. ...MO/OK/KS/AR... No change to the prior outlook of level 1-MRGL risk. Elevated severe hail remains possible Saturday evening into the overnight, with potential for a mesoscale area of level 2-SLGT in a future outlook. The next in a series of shortwave troughs progressing from the northern Rockies into the North-Central States will yield modified moisture recovery from the western Gulf, beneath an increasingly expansive/stout EML. The degree of moistening depicted in some models is questionable owing to predominately 20s/30s surface dew points at present along the TX Gulf Coast. Elevated buoyancy will likely remain weak with MUCAPE at/below 1000 J/kg. But strengthening forcing for ascent should support elevated thunderstorms as early as Saturday evening across the Ozark Plateau, increasing in coverage during the night. Within a predominately westerly mid to upper wind profile, given the geometry of the northern Great Plains shortwave trough, favorable speed shear should exist for at least a few elevated supercells. The potentially limited buoyancy and perhaps a more widespread cluster-type convective mode may modulate the overall coverage/intensity of the large hail threat. The southern extent of convective development may have a sharp cutoff beyond the Ozarks given the expected strength of the EML and neutral mid-level height change through 12Z Sunday. ..Grams.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday. ...Mid-MO/MS Valleys... A compact shortwave impulse currently over the northern Rockies will progress across parts of the Mid-MO/MS Valleys Friday. Despite a dearth of low-level moisture, diurnally steepening lapse rates along with a focused corridor of moderate large-scale ascent should support a swath of isolated to scattered low-topped convection, primarily from late morning to early evening. Meager buoyancy should be adequate for sporadic lightning. Gusty, sub-severe winds may accompany this activity, especially across the southern portion of the convective threat, owing to a deeper mixed boundary layer and 30-40 kt 850-mb westerlies. ...Northwest... The next shortwave trough will move inland of the Pacific Northwest coast and reach the northern Rockies by Friday night. Scattered low-topped convection should accompany this wave within a confined belt of stronger forcing for ascent coincident with scant buoyancy at most. Isolated thunderstorms are possible near the Cascades on Friday afternoon, shifting east across the Columbia Basin and into the northern Rockies through late evening. ..Grams.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday. ...Mid-MO/MS Valleys... A compact shortwave impulse currently over the northern Rockies will progress across parts of the Mid-MO/MS Valleys Friday. Despite a dearth of low-level moisture, diurnally steepening lapse rates along with a focused corridor of moderate large-scale ascent should support a swath of isolated to scattered low-topped convection, primarily from late morning to early evening. Meager buoyancy should be adequate for sporadic lightning. Gusty, sub-severe winds may accompany this activity, especially across the southern portion of the convective threat, owing to a deeper mixed boundary layer and 30-40 kt 850-mb westerlies. ...Northwest... The next shortwave trough will move inland of the Pacific Northwest coast and reach the northern Rockies by Friday night. Scattered low-topped convection should accompany this wave within a confined belt of stronger forcing for ascent coincident with scant buoyancy at most. Isolated thunderstorms are possible near the Cascades on Friday afternoon, shifting east across the Columbia Basin and into the northern Rockies through late evening. ..Grams.. 03/20/2025 Read more