Aggregator

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southwestern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern will feature two cutoff lows, one in the lower/mid Ohio Valley and another that will develop near the lower Colorado Valley. A surface low in the central/northern Appalachians will slowly fill during the day. A cold front will slowly progress eastward through parts of the Southeast into the Blue Ridge/Piedmont. In New Mexico, weak moisture return and upslope flow will occur in the southern Rockies. ...Florida... With the front pushing into portions of the northern Gulf, weak warm air advection and mid-level ascent on the southern periphery of the upper low may promote showers/thunderstorms into the eastern Gulf and perhaps the western Florida Peninsula. This activity plus cloud cover associated with the subtropical jet will impact the degree of destabilization that occurs in some areas. Still, the pattern favors thunderstorm along the eastern sea breeze boundary during the afternoon. 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE along with 25-30 kts effective shear across the sea breeze will promote supercells. Temperatures aloft are expected to be -12 to -14 C. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with the strongest storms. A tornado would be possible with a supercell favorably interacting with the sea breeze boundary. Additional storms are possible along the front in the eastern Florida Panhandle/North Florida. Shear will be stronger closer to the upper low, but convergence is not overly strong along the front. Storm development will depend on local areas of stronger heating/convergence. ...Georgia into Piedmont/Blue Ridge and upper Ohio Valley Vicinity... Precipitation will likely be ongoing for most of these areas early Sunday morning. With at least low 60s F dewpoints extending into much of the Mid-Atlantic, destabilization is expected behind the morning activity. Confidence in sufficient destabilization is greatest from eastern Georgia into the Carolinas as the precipitation should move out sooner. Potentially lingering precipitation and cloud cover cast more uncertainty on the severe potential for the Mid-Atlantic into the upper Ohio Valley region. 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible during the afternoon. Effective shear of 35-40 kts will promote a few marginally organized cells capable of marginally severe hail and isolated damaging winds. ...New Mexico... With the cold front having moved into the northern Gulf, moisture return along the western flank of the surface high will be weak. Mid to upper 40s F dewpoints can be reasonably expected. However, temperatures of -14 to -16 C at 500 mb will allow weak buoyancy to develop. Mid-level ascent from subtle shortwaves and upslope flow will promote widely scattered to scattered storms in the southern Rockies. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will promote at least modest storm organization despite limited buoyancy. Small to marginally severe hail and isolated strong winds would be possible with this activity. ..Wendt.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southwestern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern will feature two cutoff lows, one in the lower/mid Ohio Valley and another that will develop near the lower Colorado Valley. A surface low in the central/northern Appalachians will slowly fill during the day. A cold front will slowly progress eastward through parts of the Southeast into the Blue Ridge/Piedmont. In New Mexico, weak moisture return and upslope flow will occur in the southern Rockies. ...Florida... With the front pushing into portions of the northern Gulf, weak warm air advection and mid-level ascent on the southern periphery of the upper low may promote showers/thunderstorms into the eastern Gulf and perhaps the western Florida Peninsula. This activity plus cloud cover associated with the subtropical jet will impact the degree of destabilization that occurs in some areas. Still, the pattern favors thunderstorm along the eastern sea breeze boundary during the afternoon. 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE along with 25-30 kts effective shear across the sea breeze will promote supercells. Temperatures aloft are expected to be -12 to -14 C. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with the strongest storms. A tornado would be possible with a supercell favorably interacting with the sea breeze boundary. Additional storms are possible along the front in the eastern Florida Panhandle/North Florida. Shear will be stronger closer to the upper low, but convergence is not overly strong along the front. Storm development will depend on local areas of stronger heating/convergence. ...Georgia into Piedmont/Blue Ridge and upper Ohio Valley Vicinity... Precipitation will likely be ongoing for most of these areas early Sunday morning. With at least low 60s F dewpoints extending into much of the Mid-Atlantic, destabilization is expected behind the morning activity. Confidence in sufficient destabilization is greatest from eastern Georgia into the Carolinas as the precipitation should move out sooner. Potentially lingering precipitation and cloud cover cast more uncertainty on the severe potential for the Mid-Atlantic into the upper Ohio Valley region. 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible during the afternoon. Effective shear of 35-40 kts will promote a few marginally organized cells capable of marginally severe hail and isolated damaging winds. ...New Mexico... With the cold front having moved into the northern Gulf, moisture return along the western flank of the surface high will be weak. Mid to upper 40s F dewpoints can be reasonably expected. However, temperatures of -14 to -16 C at 500 mb will allow weak buoyancy to develop. Mid-level ascent from subtle shortwaves and upslope flow will promote widely scattered to scattered storms in the southern Rockies. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will promote at least modest storm organization despite limited buoyancy. Small to marginally severe hail and isolated strong winds would be possible with this activity. ..Wendt.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible later today into this evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may also develop across the Southeast and Ohio Valley, and also across parts of the Great Basin. ...Synopsis... A slow-moving mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to develop across parts of IL/MO later today. This cyclone will be embedded within a broad mid/upper-level trough covering much of eastern CONUS. A slow-moving cold front will gradually progress southeastward from parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. One frontal wave may move east-northeastward during the day toward southern New England, while the primary surface low gradually consolidates over the OH/TN Valleys. The western portion of the front will continue to move across Deep South TX into the lower MS Valley. For the western CONUS, a mid/upper-level trough will amplify and dig southeastward into parts of the Southwest and Great Basin. A cold front will move eastward across parts of the Great Basin in conjunction with this system. ...Parts of the East... The greatest relative severe threat within the broad prefrontal region across the East is currently expected from the Carolina Piedmont into parts of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England, where somewhat stronger diurnal heating/destabilization is currently expected. A belt of moderate midlevel southwesterly flow in advance of the slow-moving mid/upper trough will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization within a moderately buoyant environment. Organized cells/clusters may develop during the afternoon from the northern Mid Atlantic into southern New England, as a frontal wave and modestly enhanced low-level jet move northeastward across the region. These storms will pose a threat of damaging winds and isolated hail, and perhaps some localized tornado potential. Farther south, scattered storm development is expected during the afternoon near/east of the Blue Ridge. Moderate buoyancy/shear and relatively steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat of damaging wind and hail with the strongest storms. Uncertainty is greater regarding potential for destabilization in the wake of morning storms across parts of eastern MS into AL/GA and FL Panhandle. However, some increase in deep-layer shear and cooling temperatures aloft will accompany the approaching mid/upper trough, and adequate heating/destabilization could result in redevelopment of strong to locally severe storms along the cold front during the afternoon and evening. Portions of the Southeast may require greater severe probabilities if trends begin to support stronger instability in advance of the cold front. ...Parts of NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the northern Great Basin and vicinity, as favorable large-scale ascent and steep midlevel lapse rates overspread the region. Buoyancy will generally remain modest (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg or less), but moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates could support a few stronger storms capable of localized severe gusts and small to near-severe hail. ...Parts of the TX Big Bend/Trans-Pecos region... Isolated storm development is possible during the afternoon and evening, within a post-frontal regime across parts of west TX. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of destabilization across the region, though MLCAPE may remain rather modest (around 500 J/kg). Veering wind profiles will support sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, so if somewhat greater instability materializes compared to current expectations, then a supercell or two with some hail potential could evolve with time. ...Deep South TX... Strong storms could be ongoing near the cold front across a small part of Deep South TX at the start of the forecast period, though it is also possible that the front and any remaining severe threat will have already passed through the region. Any remaining storms this morning could pose a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ..Dean/Moore.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible later today into this evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may also develop across the Southeast and Ohio Valley, and also across parts of the Great Basin. ...Synopsis... A slow-moving mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to develop across parts of IL/MO later today. This cyclone will be embedded within a broad mid/upper-level trough covering much of eastern CONUS. A slow-moving cold front will gradually progress southeastward from parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. One frontal wave may move east-northeastward during the day toward southern New England, while the primary surface low gradually consolidates over the OH/TN Valleys. The western portion of the front will continue to move across Deep South TX into the lower MS Valley. For the western CONUS, a mid/upper-level trough will amplify and dig southeastward into parts of the Southwest and Great Basin. A cold front will move eastward across parts of the Great Basin in conjunction with this system. ...Parts of the East... The greatest relative severe threat within the broad prefrontal region across the East is currently expected from the Carolina Piedmont into parts of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England, where somewhat stronger diurnal heating/destabilization is currently expected. A belt of moderate midlevel southwesterly flow in advance of the slow-moving mid/upper trough will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization within a moderately buoyant environment. Organized cells/clusters may develop during the afternoon from the northern Mid Atlantic into southern New England, as a frontal wave and modestly enhanced low-level jet move northeastward across the region. These storms will pose a threat of damaging winds and isolated hail, and perhaps some localized tornado potential. Farther south, scattered storm development is expected during the afternoon near/east of the Blue Ridge. Moderate buoyancy/shear and relatively steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat of damaging wind and hail with the strongest storms. Uncertainty is greater regarding potential for destabilization in the wake of morning storms across parts of eastern MS into AL/GA and FL Panhandle. However, some increase in deep-layer shear and cooling temperatures aloft will accompany the approaching mid/upper trough, and adequate heating/destabilization could result in redevelopment of strong to locally severe storms along the cold front during the afternoon and evening. Portions of the Southeast may require greater severe probabilities if trends begin to support stronger instability in advance of the cold front. ...Parts of NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the northern Great Basin and vicinity, as favorable large-scale ascent and steep midlevel lapse rates overspread the region. Buoyancy will generally remain modest (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg or less), but moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates could support a few stronger storms capable of localized severe gusts and small to near-severe hail. ...Parts of the TX Big Bend/Trans-Pecos region... Isolated storm development is possible during the afternoon and evening, within a post-frontal regime across parts of west TX. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of destabilization across the region, though MLCAPE may remain rather modest (around 500 J/kg). Veering wind profiles will support sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, so if somewhat greater instability materializes compared to current expectations, then a supercell or two with some hail potential could evolve with time. ...Deep South TX... Strong storms could be ongoing near the cold front across a small part of Deep South TX at the start of the forecast period, though it is also possible that the front and any remaining severe threat will have already passed through the region. Any remaining storms this morning could pose a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ..Dean/Moore.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible later today into this evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may also develop across the Southeast and Ohio Valley, and also across parts of the Great Basin. ...Synopsis... A slow-moving mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to develop across parts of IL/MO later today. This cyclone will be embedded within a broad mid/upper-level trough covering much of eastern CONUS. A slow-moving cold front will gradually progress southeastward from parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. One frontal wave may move east-northeastward during the day toward southern New England, while the primary surface low gradually consolidates over the OH/TN Valleys. The western portion of the front will continue to move across Deep South TX into the lower MS Valley. For the western CONUS, a mid/upper-level trough will amplify and dig southeastward into parts of the Southwest and Great Basin. A cold front will move eastward across parts of the Great Basin in conjunction with this system. ...Parts of the East... The greatest relative severe threat within the broad prefrontal region across the East is currently expected from the Carolina Piedmont into parts of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England, where somewhat stronger diurnal heating/destabilization is currently expected. A belt of moderate midlevel southwesterly flow in advance of the slow-moving mid/upper trough will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization within a moderately buoyant environment. Organized cells/clusters may develop during the afternoon from the northern Mid Atlantic into southern New England, as a frontal wave and modestly enhanced low-level jet move northeastward across the region. These storms will pose a threat of damaging winds and isolated hail, and perhaps some localized tornado potential. Farther south, scattered storm development is expected during the afternoon near/east of the Blue Ridge. Moderate buoyancy/shear and relatively steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat of damaging wind and hail with the strongest storms. Uncertainty is greater regarding potential for destabilization in the wake of morning storms across parts of eastern MS into AL/GA and FL Panhandle. However, some increase in deep-layer shear and cooling temperatures aloft will accompany the approaching mid/upper trough, and adequate heating/destabilization could result in redevelopment of strong to locally severe storms along the cold front during the afternoon and evening. Portions of the Southeast may require greater severe probabilities if trends begin to support stronger instability in advance of the cold front. ...Parts of NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the northern Great Basin and vicinity, as favorable large-scale ascent and steep midlevel lapse rates overspread the region. Buoyancy will generally remain modest (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg or less), but moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates could support a few stronger storms capable of localized severe gusts and small to near-severe hail. ...Parts of the TX Big Bend/Trans-Pecos region... Isolated storm development is possible during the afternoon and evening, within a post-frontal regime across parts of west TX. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of destabilization across the region, though MLCAPE may remain rather modest (around 500 J/kg). Veering wind profiles will support sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, so if somewhat greater instability materializes compared to current expectations, then a supercell or two with some hail potential could evolve with time. ...Deep South TX... Strong storms could be ongoing near the cold front across a small part of Deep South TX at the start of the forecast period, though it is also possible that the front and any remaining severe threat will have already passed through the region. Any remaining storms this morning could pose a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ..Dean/Moore.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible later today into this evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may also develop across the Southeast and Ohio Valley, and also across parts of the Great Basin. ...Synopsis... A slow-moving mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to develop across parts of IL/MO later today. This cyclone will be embedded within a broad mid/upper-level trough covering much of eastern CONUS. A slow-moving cold front will gradually progress southeastward from parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. One frontal wave may move east-northeastward during the day toward southern New England, while the primary surface low gradually consolidates over the OH/TN Valleys. The western portion of the front will continue to move across Deep South TX into the lower MS Valley. For the western CONUS, a mid/upper-level trough will amplify and dig southeastward into parts of the Southwest and Great Basin. A cold front will move eastward across parts of the Great Basin in conjunction with this system. ...Parts of the East... The greatest relative severe threat within the broad prefrontal region across the East is currently expected from the Carolina Piedmont into parts of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England, where somewhat stronger diurnal heating/destabilization is currently expected. A belt of moderate midlevel southwesterly flow in advance of the slow-moving mid/upper trough will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization within a moderately buoyant environment. Organized cells/clusters may develop during the afternoon from the northern Mid Atlantic into southern New England, as a frontal wave and modestly enhanced low-level jet move northeastward across the region. These storms will pose a threat of damaging winds and isolated hail, and perhaps some localized tornado potential. Farther south, scattered storm development is expected during the afternoon near/east of the Blue Ridge. Moderate buoyancy/shear and relatively steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat of damaging wind and hail with the strongest storms. Uncertainty is greater regarding potential for destabilization in the wake of morning storms across parts of eastern MS into AL/GA and FL Panhandle. However, some increase in deep-layer shear and cooling temperatures aloft will accompany the approaching mid/upper trough, and adequate heating/destabilization could result in redevelopment of strong to locally severe storms along the cold front during the afternoon and evening. Portions of the Southeast may require greater severe probabilities if trends begin to support stronger instability in advance of the cold front. ...Parts of NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the northern Great Basin and vicinity, as favorable large-scale ascent and steep midlevel lapse rates overspread the region. Buoyancy will generally remain modest (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg or less), but moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates could support a few stronger storms capable of localized severe gusts and small to near-severe hail. ...Parts of the TX Big Bend/Trans-Pecos region... Isolated storm development is possible during the afternoon and evening, within a post-frontal regime across parts of west TX. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of destabilization across the region, though MLCAPE may remain rather modest (around 500 J/kg). Veering wind profiles will support sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, so if somewhat greater instability materializes compared to current expectations, then a supercell or two with some hail potential could evolve with time. ...Deep South TX... Strong storms could be ongoing near the cold front across a small part of Deep South TX at the start of the forecast period, though it is also possible that the front and any remaining severe threat will have already passed through the region. Any remaining storms this morning could pose a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ..Dean/Moore.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible later today into this evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may also develop across the Southeast and Ohio Valley, and also across parts of the Great Basin. ...Synopsis... A slow-moving mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to develop across parts of IL/MO later today. This cyclone will be embedded within a broad mid/upper-level trough covering much of eastern CONUS. A slow-moving cold front will gradually progress southeastward from parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. One frontal wave may move east-northeastward during the day toward southern New England, while the primary surface low gradually consolidates over the OH/TN Valleys. The western portion of the front will continue to move across Deep South TX into the lower MS Valley. For the western CONUS, a mid/upper-level trough will amplify and dig southeastward into parts of the Southwest and Great Basin. A cold front will move eastward across parts of the Great Basin in conjunction with this system. ...Parts of the East... The greatest relative severe threat within the broad prefrontal region across the East is currently expected from the Carolina Piedmont into parts of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England, where somewhat stronger diurnal heating/destabilization is currently expected. A belt of moderate midlevel southwesterly flow in advance of the slow-moving mid/upper trough will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization within a moderately buoyant environment. Organized cells/clusters may develop during the afternoon from the northern Mid Atlantic into southern New England, as a frontal wave and modestly enhanced low-level jet move northeastward across the region. These storms will pose a threat of damaging winds and isolated hail, and perhaps some localized tornado potential. Farther south, scattered storm development is expected during the afternoon near/east of the Blue Ridge. Moderate buoyancy/shear and relatively steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat of damaging wind and hail with the strongest storms. Uncertainty is greater regarding potential for destabilization in the wake of morning storms across parts of eastern MS into AL/GA and FL Panhandle. However, some increase in deep-layer shear and cooling temperatures aloft will accompany the approaching mid/upper trough, and adequate heating/destabilization could result in redevelopment of strong to locally severe storms along the cold front during the afternoon and evening. Portions of the Southeast may require greater severe probabilities if trends begin to support stronger instability in advance of the cold front. ...Parts of NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the northern Great Basin and vicinity, as favorable large-scale ascent and steep midlevel lapse rates overspread the region. Buoyancy will generally remain modest (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg or less), but moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates could support a few stronger storms capable of localized severe gusts and small to near-severe hail. ...Parts of the TX Big Bend/Trans-Pecos region... Isolated storm development is possible during the afternoon and evening, within a post-frontal regime across parts of west TX. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of destabilization across the region, though MLCAPE may remain rather modest (around 500 J/kg). Veering wind profiles will support sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, so if somewhat greater instability materializes compared to current expectations, then a supercell or two with some hail potential could evolve with time. ...Deep South TX... Strong storms could be ongoing near the cold front across a small part of Deep South TX at the start of the forecast period, though it is also possible that the front and any remaining severe threat will have already passed through the region. Any remaining storms this morning could pose a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ..Dean/Moore.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible later today into this evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may also develop across the Southeast and Ohio Valley, and also across parts of the Great Basin. ...Synopsis... A slow-moving mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to develop across parts of IL/MO later today. This cyclone will be embedded within a broad mid/upper-level trough covering much of eastern CONUS. A slow-moving cold front will gradually progress southeastward from parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. One frontal wave may move east-northeastward during the day toward southern New England, while the primary surface low gradually consolidates over the OH/TN Valleys. The western portion of the front will continue to move across Deep South TX into the lower MS Valley. For the western CONUS, a mid/upper-level trough will amplify and dig southeastward into parts of the Southwest and Great Basin. A cold front will move eastward across parts of the Great Basin in conjunction with this system. ...Parts of the East... The greatest relative severe threat within the broad prefrontal region across the East is currently expected from the Carolina Piedmont into parts of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England, where somewhat stronger diurnal heating/destabilization is currently expected. A belt of moderate midlevel southwesterly flow in advance of the slow-moving mid/upper trough will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization within a moderately buoyant environment. Organized cells/clusters may develop during the afternoon from the northern Mid Atlantic into southern New England, as a frontal wave and modestly enhanced low-level jet move northeastward across the region. These storms will pose a threat of damaging winds and isolated hail, and perhaps some localized tornado potential. Farther south, scattered storm development is expected during the afternoon near/east of the Blue Ridge. Moderate buoyancy/shear and relatively steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat of damaging wind and hail with the strongest storms. Uncertainty is greater regarding potential for destabilization in the wake of morning storms across parts of eastern MS into AL/GA and FL Panhandle. However, some increase in deep-layer shear and cooling temperatures aloft will accompany the approaching mid/upper trough, and adequate heating/destabilization could result in redevelopment of strong to locally severe storms along the cold front during the afternoon and evening. Portions of the Southeast may require greater severe probabilities if trends begin to support stronger instability in advance of the cold front. ...Parts of NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the northern Great Basin and vicinity, as favorable large-scale ascent and steep midlevel lapse rates overspread the region. Buoyancy will generally remain modest (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg or less), but moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates could support a few stronger storms capable of localized severe gusts and small to near-severe hail. ...Parts of the TX Big Bend/Trans-Pecos region... Isolated storm development is possible during the afternoon and evening, within a post-frontal regime across parts of west TX. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of destabilization across the region, though MLCAPE may remain rather modest (around 500 J/kg). Veering wind profiles will support sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, so if somewhat greater instability materializes compared to current expectations, then a supercell or two with some hail potential could evolve with time. ...Deep South TX... Strong storms could be ongoing near the cold front across a small part of Deep South TX at the start of the forecast period, though it is also possible that the front and any remaining severe threat will have already passed through the region. Any remaining storms this morning could pose a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ..Dean/Moore.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible later today into this evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may also develop across the Southeast and Ohio Valley, and also across parts of the Great Basin. ...Synopsis... A slow-moving mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to develop across parts of IL/MO later today. This cyclone will be embedded within a broad mid/upper-level trough covering much of eastern CONUS. A slow-moving cold front will gradually progress southeastward from parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. One frontal wave may move east-northeastward during the day toward southern New England, while the primary surface low gradually consolidates over the OH/TN Valleys. The western portion of the front will continue to move across Deep South TX into the lower MS Valley. For the western CONUS, a mid/upper-level trough will amplify and dig southeastward into parts of the Southwest and Great Basin. A cold front will move eastward across parts of the Great Basin in conjunction with this system. ...Parts of the East... The greatest relative severe threat within the broad prefrontal region across the East is currently expected from the Carolina Piedmont into parts of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England, where somewhat stronger diurnal heating/destabilization is currently expected. A belt of moderate midlevel southwesterly flow in advance of the slow-moving mid/upper trough will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization within a moderately buoyant environment. Organized cells/clusters may develop during the afternoon from the northern Mid Atlantic into southern New England, as a frontal wave and modestly enhanced low-level jet move northeastward across the region. These storms will pose a threat of damaging winds and isolated hail, and perhaps some localized tornado potential. Farther south, scattered storm development is expected during the afternoon near/east of the Blue Ridge. Moderate buoyancy/shear and relatively steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat of damaging wind and hail with the strongest storms. Uncertainty is greater regarding potential for destabilization in the wake of morning storms across parts of eastern MS into AL/GA and FL Panhandle. However, some increase in deep-layer shear and cooling temperatures aloft will accompany the approaching mid/upper trough, and adequate heating/destabilization could result in redevelopment of strong to locally severe storms along the cold front during the afternoon and evening. Portions of the Southeast may require greater severe probabilities if trends begin to support stronger instability in advance of the cold front. ...Parts of NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the northern Great Basin and vicinity, as favorable large-scale ascent and steep midlevel lapse rates overspread the region. Buoyancy will generally remain modest (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg or less), but moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates could support a few stronger storms capable of localized severe gusts and small to near-severe hail. ...Parts of the TX Big Bend/Trans-Pecos region... Isolated storm development is possible during the afternoon and evening, within a post-frontal regime across parts of west TX. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of destabilization across the region, though MLCAPE may remain rather modest (around 500 J/kg). Veering wind profiles will support sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, so if somewhat greater instability materializes compared to current expectations, then a supercell or two with some hail potential could evolve with time. ...Deep South TX... Strong storms could be ongoing near the cold front across a small part of Deep South TX at the start of the forecast period, though it is also possible that the front and any remaining severe threat will have already passed through the region. Any remaining storms this morning could pose a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ..Dean/Moore.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest, but weak low-level pressure gradient winds will limit the potential for dry and windy conditions. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from central NM westward across AZ and into central NV this afternoon. Very dry boundary layer conditions sampled in 00 UTC soundings may support occasional dry lightning strikes away from slow-moving rain cores across western NM into central AZ. Similar thermodynamic conditions and storm motions were observed yesterday (Friday) and resulted in pockets of wetting rainfall as well as a few dry lightning strikes. However, the coverage of dry lightning over receptive fuels remains too limited to warrant a risk area based on latest CAM guidance and fuel analyses. ..Moore.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest, but weak low-level pressure gradient winds will limit the potential for dry and windy conditions. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from central NM westward across AZ and into central NV this afternoon. Very dry boundary layer conditions sampled in 00 UTC soundings may support occasional dry lightning strikes away from slow-moving rain cores across western NM into central AZ. Similar thermodynamic conditions and storm motions were observed yesterday (Friday) and resulted in pockets of wetting rainfall as well as a few dry lightning strikes. However, the coverage of dry lightning over receptive fuels remains too limited to warrant a risk area based on latest CAM guidance and fuel analyses. ..Moore.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest, but weak low-level pressure gradient winds will limit the potential for dry and windy conditions. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from central NM westward across AZ and into central NV this afternoon. Very dry boundary layer conditions sampled in 00 UTC soundings may support occasional dry lightning strikes away from slow-moving rain cores across western NM into central AZ. Similar thermodynamic conditions and storm motions were observed yesterday (Friday) and resulted in pockets of wetting rainfall as well as a few dry lightning strikes. However, the coverage of dry lightning over receptive fuels remains too limited to warrant a risk area based on latest CAM guidance and fuel analyses. ..Moore.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest, but weak low-level pressure gradient winds will limit the potential for dry and windy conditions. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from central NM westward across AZ and into central NV this afternoon. Very dry boundary layer conditions sampled in 00 UTC soundings may support occasional dry lightning strikes away from slow-moving rain cores across western NM into central AZ. Similar thermodynamic conditions and storm motions were observed yesterday (Friday) and resulted in pockets of wetting rainfall as well as a few dry lightning strikes. However, the coverage of dry lightning over receptive fuels remains too limited to warrant a risk area based on latest CAM guidance and fuel analyses. ..Moore.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest, but weak low-level pressure gradient winds will limit the potential for dry and windy conditions. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from central NM westward across AZ and into central NV this afternoon. Very dry boundary layer conditions sampled in 00 UTC soundings may support occasional dry lightning strikes away from slow-moving rain cores across western NM into central AZ. Similar thermodynamic conditions and storm motions were observed yesterday (Friday) and resulted in pockets of wetting rainfall as well as a few dry lightning strikes. However, the coverage of dry lightning over receptive fuels remains too limited to warrant a risk area based on latest CAM guidance and fuel analyses. ..Moore.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest, but weak low-level pressure gradient winds will limit the potential for dry and windy conditions. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from central NM westward across AZ and into central NV this afternoon. Very dry boundary layer conditions sampled in 00 UTC soundings may support occasional dry lightning strikes away from slow-moving rain cores across western NM into central AZ. Similar thermodynamic conditions and storm motions were observed yesterday (Friday) and resulted in pockets of wetting rainfall as well as a few dry lightning strikes. However, the coverage of dry lightning over receptive fuels remains too limited to warrant a risk area based on latest CAM guidance and fuel analyses. ..Moore.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest, but weak low-level pressure gradient winds will limit the potential for dry and windy conditions. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from central NM westward across AZ and into central NV this afternoon. Very dry boundary layer conditions sampled in 00 UTC soundings may support occasional dry lightning strikes away from slow-moving rain cores across western NM into central AZ. Similar thermodynamic conditions and storm motions were observed yesterday (Friday) and resulted in pockets of wetting rainfall as well as a few dry lightning strikes. However, the coverage of dry lightning over receptive fuels remains too limited to warrant a risk area based on latest CAM guidance and fuel analyses. ..Moore.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest, but weak low-level pressure gradient winds will limit the potential for dry and windy conditions. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from central NM westward across AZ and into central NV this afternoon. Very dry boundary layer conditions sampled in 00 UTC soundings may support occasional dry lightning strikes away from slow-moving rain cores across western NM into central AZ. Similar thermodynamic conditions and storm motions were observed yesterday (Friday) and resulted in pockets of wetting rainfall as well as a few dry lightning strikes. However, the coverage of dry lightning over receptive fuels remains too limited to warrant a risk area based on latest CAM guidance and fuel analyses. ..Moore.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0663 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 217... FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0663 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Areas affected...Deep South Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 217... Valid 030348Z - 030545Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 217 continues. SUMMARY...Strongest thunderstorms posing a continuing risk for large hail and localized strong to severe wind gusts may remained confined near and to the west of the Rio Grande River. However, storms now forming east-southeast of Cotulla may impact the Corpus Christi vicinity by Midnight-1 AM CDT, with at least some risk for severe hail and wind. It is not clear that a new severe weather watch will be needed for the Brownsville area, but trends will continue to be monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...The shallow leading edge of the slowly southward advancing cold front now appears south of Cotulla and Victoria, with some continuing increase in thunderstorm development near the Cotulla vicinity. A more intense, discrete storm which developed near the front to the west of the Rio Grande has maintained a propagation to the right of the deep-layer mean flow/shear, near the river, in the wake of the consolidated remnants of a preceding pair of supercells that initiated off the higher terrain to the north-northwest. Stronger renewed thunderstorm development above the cold pool associated with this lead activity is maintaining a propagation to the west of the the river, but peak intensities have weakened some, apparently in response to the onset of boundary layer cooling beneath warm elevated mixed layer air. As southward suppression of the elevated mixed-layer air continues near/north of the surface front, it is possible that the frontal thunderstorm development may persist through the remainder of Deep South Texas by 06-9Z, perhaps accompanied by some continuing risk for severe hail and wind. ..Kerr.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... LAT...LON 28490065 28750000 28219838 28129684 27079671 26299705 26009755 25929856 26289979 26910094 28490065 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0217 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 217 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..05/03/25 ATTN...WFO...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 217 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-131-249-273-297-311-355-391-409-479-030540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE DUVAL JIM WELLS KLEBERG LIVE OAK MCMULLEN NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO WEBB GMZ231-232-236-250-255-030540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE BAFFIN BAY AND UPPER LAGUNA MADRE CORPUS CHRISTI AND NUECES BAYS COPANO ARANSAS AND REDFISH BAYS COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 Read more

WW 0217 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 217 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..05/03/25 ATTN...WFO...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 217 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-131-249-273-297-311-355-391-409-479-030540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE DUVAL JIM WELLS KLEBERG LIVE OAK MCMULLEN NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO WEBB GMZ231-232-236-250-255-030540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE BAFFIN BAY AND UPPER LAGUNA MADRE CORPUS CHRISTI AND NUECES BAYS COPANO ARANSAS AND REDFISH BAYS COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 Read more