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MD 0665 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0665 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Areas affected...parts of the Northeast and southern New England Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 031614Z - 031815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...An increasing severe threat is expected through the afternoon across a confined corridor of the Northeast and southern New England. A mix of at least isolated damaging winds and hail is anticipated. A severe thunderstorm watch issuance appears likely. DISCUSSION...Bulk of morning guidance, outside of the HRRR and parent RAP, suggest a favorable corridor of at least isolated severe storms should develop from the PA/NJ/NY border northeastward across parts of interior southern New England. Robust boundary-layer heating is underway ahead of the minor lobe of ascent over eastern PA and south of the quasi-stationary front. The differential heating across the front will aid in strengthening the baroclinic zone. While mid-level lapse rates are weak and will temper overall storm intensity, nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind profiles with moderate speed shear will foster occasional updraft rotation. A mix of cells and small clusters should support both a severe hail/wind threat in a confined corridor through the afternoon. ..Grams/Gleason.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... LAT...LON 41187498 42107438 42727332 43327208 43437130 43187092 42597125 41777276 41177389 40647457 40437498 40537542 41187498 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0664 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND SOUTHWEST VA
Mesoscale Discussion 0664 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Areas affected...the western Carolinas and southwest VA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 031558Z - 031800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind and small to marginal severe hail threat should develop across parts of the western Carolinas into southwest Virginia this afternoon. Uncertainty exists over the degree of severe-storm coverage and intensity for a possible watch. DISCUSSION...Initial shower development is underway across the western Carolinas and should be the primary corridor of isolated to scattered storms this afternoon. This activity is within more muted boundary-layer heating with greater insolation/warmth eastward in the Piedmont to Coastal Plain. With weak mid-level lapse rates, it may take a few hours for cells to intensify to marginal severe levels. Amid a fairly unidirectional, south-southwesterly wind profile, storms may eventually spread towards steeper low-level lapse rates over the Piedmont. Primary severe threat is expected from localized strong gusts to around 60 mph producing isolated damaging winds. ..Grams/Gleason.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 37398016 37497956 37337912 36377943 34658023 33938090 33798147 34438184 35208198 36258137 37048061 37398016 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southwestern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone will remain positioned over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper south to southwesterly flow from FL to the Upper OH Valley. Further west, a large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the western states, while an upper low develops within the southern branch of this system across the Southwest. As this occurs, strengthening mid/upper south/southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a weak low is expected across WV with a cold front extending south across the VA/NC Piedmont and the SC/GA coastal vicinity before arcing southwest across north FL and the eastern Gulf. Additionally, a sea breeze is expected to develop during the late morning into afternoon along the FL east coast. Modest boundary layer moisture from the upper 50s to mid 60s F (higher dewpoints with southward extent) will be in place ahead of the front. Across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity, lee troughing will modestly strengthen during the afternoon/evening. Richer moisture will remain well to the south, but dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s F are forecast. ...Florida... Cool temperatures aloft (-12 to -14 C at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. Strong heating and low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will foster moderate instability, with MLCAPE values topping out near 2000 J/kg. While deep-layer flow will remain modest, effective shear near 25 kt and vertically veering profiles will support at least transient storm organization. Low-level convergence along the sea breeze and the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered robust updrafts. The strongest storms could produce marginally severe hail and severe/damaging gusts. While low-level shear will remain weak, sufficient moisture and 0-3 km MLCAPE amid small but curved low-level hodographs suggests a brief tornado or two could develop on the sea breeze boundary. Uncertainty regarding storm coverage and longevity of strong updrafts precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Coastal GA/SC to southwest PA... A modestly destabilizing airmass ahead of the surface cold front and within the warm conveyor ahead of the upper low should support thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Low-level flow will remain light, but increase with height to around 50 kt at 500 mb, supporting 25-35 kt effective shear across the region, and leading to elongated/straight hodographs. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft (-14 to -18 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and gusty winds through early evening. ...New Mexico... Despite meager boundary layer moisture, cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization during the afternoon/evening. Shortwave impulses ejecting through increasing south/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the Southwest upper trough/low, and low-level upslope flow will allow for scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into the afternoon. Strong vertical shear should support at least a few organized cells despite modest instability, and isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southwestern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone will remain positioned over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper south to southwesterly flow from FL to the Upper OH Valley. Further west, a large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the western states, while an upper low develops within the southern branch of this system across the Southwest. As this occurs, strengthening mid/upper south/southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a weak low is expected across WV with a cold front extending south across the VA/NC Piedmont and the SC/GA coastal vicinity before arcing southwest across north FL and the eastern Gulf. Additionally, a sea breeze is expected to develop during the late morning into afternoon along the FL east coast. Modest boundary layer moisture from the upper 50s to mid 60s F (higher dewpoints with southward extent) will be in place ahead of the front. Across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity, lee troughing will modestly strengthen during the afternoon/evening. Richer moisture will remain well to the south, but dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s F are forecast. ...Florida... Cool temperatures aloft (-12 to -14 C at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. Strong heating and low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will foster moderate instability, with MLCAPE values topping out near 2000 J/kg. While deep-layer flow will remain modest, effective shear near 25 kt and vertically veering profiles will support at least transient storm organization. Low-level convergence along the sea breeze and the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered robust updrafts. The strongest storms could produce marginally severe hail and severe/damaging gusts. While low-level shear will remain weak, sufficient moisture and 0-3 km MLCAPE amid small but curved low-level hodographs suggests a brief tornado or two could develop on the sea breeze boundary. Uncertainty regarding storm coverage and longevity of strong updrafts precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Coastal GA/SC to southwest PA... A modestly destabilizing airmass ahead of the surface cold front and within the warm conveyor ahead of the upper low should support thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Low-level flow will remain light, but increase with height to around 50 kt at 500 mb, supporting 25-35 kt effective shear across the region, and leading to elongated/straight hodographs. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft (-14 to -18 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and gusty winds through early evening. ...New Mexico... Despite meager boundary layer moisture, cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization during the afternoon/evening. Shortwave impulses ejecting through increasing south/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the Southwest upper trough/low, and low-level upslope flow will allow for scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into the afternoon. Strong vertical shear should support at least a few organized cells despite modest instability, and isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southwestern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone will remain positioned over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper south to southwesterly flow from FL to the Upper OH Valley. Further west, a large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the western states, while an upper low develops within the southern branch of this system across the Southwest. As this occurs, strengthening mid/upper south/southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a weak low is expected across WV with a cold front extending south across the VA/NC Piedmont and the SC/GA coastal vicinity before arcing southwest across north FL and the eastern Gulf. Additionally, a sea breeze is expected to develop during the late morning into afternoon along the FL east coast. Modest boundary layer moisture from the upper 50s to mid 60s F (higher dewpoints with southward extent) will be in place ahead of the front. Across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity, lee troughing will modestly strengthen during the afternoon/evening. Richer moisture will remain well to the south, but dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s F are forecast. ...Florida... Cool temperatures aloft (-12 to -14 C at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. Strong heating and low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will foster moderate instability, with MLCAPE values topping out near 2000 J/kg. While deep-layer flow will remain modest, effective shear near 25 kt and vertically veering profiles will support at least transient storm organization. Low-level convergence along the sea breeze and the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered robust updrafts. The strongest storms could produce marginally severe hail and severe/damaging gusts. While low-level shear will remain weak, sufficient moisture and 0-3 km MLCAPE amid small but curved low-level hodographs suggests a brief tornado or two could develop on the sea breeze boundary. Uncertainty regarding storm coverage and longevity of strong updrafts precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Coastal GA/SC to southwest PA... A modestly destabilizing airmass ahead of the surface cold front and within the warm conveyor ahead of the upper low should support thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Low-level flow will remain light, but increase with height to around 50 kt at 500 mb, supporting 25-35 kt effective shear across the region, and leading to elongated/straight hodographs. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft (-14 to -18 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and gusty winds through early evening. ...New Mexico... Despite meager boundary layer moisture, cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization during the afternoon/evening. Shortwave impulses ejecting through increasing south/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the Southwest upper trough/low, and low-level upslope flow will allow for scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into the afternoon. Strong vertical shear should support at least a few organized cells despite modest instability, and isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southwestern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone will remain positioned over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper south to southwesterly flow from FL to the Upper OH Valley. Further west, a large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the western states, while an upper low develops within the southern branch of this system across the Southwest. As this occurs, strengthening mid/upper south/southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a weak low is expected across WV with a cold front extending south across the VA/NC Piedmont and the SC/GA coastal vicinity before arcing southwest across north FL and the eastern Gulf. Additionally, a sea breeze is expected to develop during the late morning into afternoon along the FL east coast. Modest boundary layer moisture from the upper 50s to mid 60s F (higher dewpoints with southward extent) will be in place ahead of the front. Across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity, lee troughing will modestly strengthen during the afternoon/evening. Richer moisture will remain well to the south, but dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s F are forecast. ...Florida... Cool temperatures aloft (-12 to -14 C at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. Strong heating and low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will foster moderate instability, with MLCAPE values topping out near 2000 J/kg. While deep-layer flow will remain modest, effective shear near 25 kt and vertically veering profiles will support at least transient storm organization. Low-level convergence along the sea breeze and the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered robust updrafts. The strongest storms could produce marginally severe hail and severe/damaging gusts. While low-level shear will remain weak, sufficient moisture and 0-3 km MLCAPE amid small but curved low-level hodographs suggests a brief tornado or two could develop on the sea breeze boundary. Uncertainty regarding storm coverage and longevity of strong updrafts precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Coastal GA/SC to southwest PA... A modestly destabilizing airmass ahead of the surface cold front and within the warm conveyor ahead of the upper low should support thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Low-level flow will remain light, but increase with height to around 50 kt at 500 mb, supporting 25-35 kt effective shear across the region, and leading to elongated/straight hodographs. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft (-14 to -18 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and gusty winds through early evening. ...New Mexico... Despite meager boundary layer moisture, cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization during the afternoon/evening. Shortwave impulses ejecting through increasing south/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the Southwest upper trough/low, and low-level upslope flow will allow for scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into the afternoon. Strong vertical shear should support at least a few organized cells despite modest instability, and isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southwestern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone will remain positioned over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper south to southwesterly flow from FL to the Upper OH Valley. Further west, a large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the western states, while an upper low develops within the southern branch of this system across the Southwest. As this occurs, strengthening mid/upper south/southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a weak low is expected across WV with a cold front extending south across the VA/NC Piedmont and the SC/GA coastal vicinity before arcing southwest across north FL and the eastern Gulf. Additionally, a sea breeze is expected to develop during the late morning into afternoon along the FL east coast. Modest boundary layer moisture from the upper 50s to mid 60s F (higher dewpoints with southward extent) will be in place ahead of the front. Across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity, lee troughing will modestly strengthen during the afternoon/evening. Richer moisture will remain well to the south, but dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s F are forecast. ...Florida... Cool temperatures aloft (-12 to -14 C at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. Strong heating and low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will foster moderate instability, with MLCAPE values topping out near 2000 J/kg. While deep-layer flow will remain modest, effective shear near 25 kt and vertically veering profiles will support at least transient storm organization. Low-level convergence along the sea breeze and the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered robust updrafts. The strongest storms could produce marginally severe hail and severe/damaging gusts. While low-level shear will remain weak, sufficient moisture and 0-3 km MLCAPE amid small but curved low-level hodographs suggests a brief tornado or two could develop on the sea breeze boundary. Uncertainty regarding storm coverage and longevity of strong updrafts precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Coastal GA/SC to southwest PA... A modestly destabilizing airmass ahead of the surface cold front and within the warm conveyor ahead of the upper low should support thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Low-level flow will remain light, but increase with height to around 50 kt at 500 mb, supporting 25-35 kt effective shear across the region, and leading to elongated/straight hodographs. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft (-14 to -18 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and gusty winds through early evening. ...New Mexico... Despite meager boundary layer moisture, cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization during the afternoon/evening. Shortwave impulses ejecting through increasing south/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the Southwest upper trough/low, and low-level upslope flow will allow for scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into the afternoon. Strong vertical shear should support at least a few organized cells despite modest instability, and isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southwestern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone will remain positioned over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper south to southwesterly flow from FL to the Upper OH Valley. Further west, a large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the western states, while an upper low develops within the southern branch of this system across the Southwest. As this occurs, strengthening mid/upper south/southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a weak low is expected across WV with a cold front extending south across the VA/NC Piedmont and the SC/GA coastal vicinity before arcing southwest across north FL and the eastern Gulf. Additionally, a sea breeze is expected to develop during the late morning into afternoon along the FL east coast. Modest boundary layer moisture from the upper 50s to mid 60s F (higher dewpoints with southward extent) will be in place ahead of the front. Across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity, lee troughing will modestly strengthen during the afternoon/evening. Richer moisture will remain well to the south, but dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s F are forecast. ...Florida... Cool temperatures aloft (-12 to -14 C at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. Strong heating and low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will foster moderate instability, with MLCAPE values topping out near 2000 J/kg. While deep-layer flow will remain modest, effective shear near 25 kt and vertically veering profiles will support at least transient storm organization. Low-level convergence along the sea breeze and the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered robust updrafts. The strongest storms could produce marginally severe hail and severe/damaging gusts. While low-level shear will remain weak, sufficient moisture and 0-3 km MLCAPE amid small but curved low-level hodographs suggests a brief tornado or two could develop on the sea breeze boundary. Uncertainty regarding storm coverage and longevity of strong updrafts precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Coastal GA/SC to southwest PA... A modestly destabilizing airmass ahead of the surface cold front and within the warm conveyor ahead of the upper low should support thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Low-level flow will remain light, but increase with height to around 50 kt at 500 mb, supporting 25-35 kt effective shear across the region, and leading to elongated/straight hodographs. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft (-14 to -18 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and gusty winds through early evening. ...New Mexico... Despite meager boundary layer moisture, cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization during the afternoon/evening. Shortwave impulses ejecting through increasing south/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the Southwest upper trough/low, and low-level upslope flow will allow for scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into the afternoon. Strong vertical shear should support at least a few organized cells despite modest instability, and isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southwestern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone will remain positioned over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper south to southwesterly flow from FL to the Upper OH Valley. Further west, a large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the western states, while an upper low develops within the southern branch of this system across the Southwest. As this occurs, strengthening mid/upper south/southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a weak low is expected across WV with a cold front extending south across the VA/NC Piedmont and the SC/GA coastal vicinity before arcing southwest across north FL and the eastern Gulf. Additionally, a sea breeze is expected to develop during the late morning into afternoon along the FL east coast. Modest boundary layer moisture from the upper 50s to mid 60s F (higher dewpoints with southward extent) will be in place ahead of the front. Across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity, lee troughing will modestly strengthen during the afternoon/evening. Richer moisture will remain well to the south, but dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s F are forecast. ...Florida... Cool temperatures aloft (-12 to -14 C at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. Strong heating and low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will foster moderate instability, with MLCAPE values topping out near 2000 J/kg. While deep-layer flow will remain modest, effective shear near 25 kt and vertically veering profiles will support at least transient storm organization. Low-level convergence along the sea breeze and the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered robust updrafts. The strongest storms could produce marginally severe hail and severe/damaging gusts. While low-level shear will remain weak, sufficient moisture and 0-3 km MLCAPE amid small but curved low-level hodographs suggests a brief tornado or two could develop on the sea breeze boundary. Uncertainty regarding storm coverage and longevity of strong updrafts precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Coastal GA/SC to southwest PA... A modestly destabilizing airmass ahead of the surface cold front and within the warm conveyor ahead of the upper low should support thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Low-level flow will remain light, but increase with height to around 50 kt at 500 mb, supporting 25-35 kt effective shear across the region, and leading to elongated/straight hodographs. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft (-14 to -18 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and gusty winds through early evening. ...New Mexico... Despite meager boundary layer moisture, cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization during the afternoon/evening. Shortwave impulses ejecting through increasing south/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the Southwest upper trough/low, and low-level upslope flow will allow for scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into the afternoon. Strong vertical shear should support at least a few organized cells despite modest instability, and isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southwestern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone will remain positioned over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper south to southwesterly flow from FL to the Upper OH Valley. Further west, a large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the western states, while an upper low develops within the southern branch of this system across the Southwest. As this occurs, strengthening mid/upper south/southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a weak low is expected across WV with a cold front extending south across the VA/NC Piedmont and the SC/GA coastal vicinity before arcing southwest across north FL and the eastern Gulf. Additionally, a sea breeze is expected to develop during the late morning into afternoon along the FL east coast. Modest boundary layer moisture from the upper 50s to mid 60s F (higher dewpoints with southward extent) will be in place ahead of the front. Across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity, lee troughing will modestly strengthen during the afternoon/evening. Richer moisture will remain well to the south, but dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s F are forecast. ...Florida... Cool temperatures aloft (-12 to -14 C at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. Strong heating and low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will foster moderate instability, with MLCAPE values topping out near 2000 J/kg. While deep-layer flow will remain modest, effective shear near 25 kt and vertically veering profiles will support at least transient storm organization. Low-level convergence along the sea breeze and the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered robust updrafts. The strongest storms could produce marginally severe hail and severe/damaging gusts. While low-level shear will remain weak, sufficient moisture and 0-3 km MLCAPE amid small but curved low-level hodographs suggests a brief tornado or two could develop on the sea breeze boundary. Uncertainty regarding storm coverage and longevity of strong updrafts precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Coastal GA/SC to southwest PA... A modestly destabilizing airmass ahead of the surface cold front and within the warm conveyor ahead of the upper low should support thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Low-level flow will remain light, but increase with height to around 50 kt at 500 mb, supporting 25-35 kt effective shear across the region, and leading to elongated/straight hodographs. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft (-14 to -18 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and gusty winds through early evening. ...New Mexico... Despite meager boundary layer moisture, cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization during the afternoon/evening. Shortwave impulses ejecting through increasing south/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the Southwest upper trough/low, and low-level upslope flow will allow for scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into the afternoon. Strong vertical shear should support at least a few organized cells despite modest instability, and isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southwestern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone will remain positioned over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper south to southwesterly flow from FL to the Upper OH Valley. Further west, a large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the western states, while an upper low develops within the southern branch of this system across the Southwest. As this occurs, strengthening mid/upper south/southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a weak low is expected across WV with a cold front extending south across the VA/NC Piedmont and the SC/GA coastal vicinity before arcing southwest across north FL and the eastern Gulf. Additionally, a sea breeze is expected to develop during the late morning into afternoon along the FL east coast. Modest boundary layer moisture from the upper 50s to mid 60s F (higher dewpoints with southward extent) will be in place ahead of the front. Across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity, lee troughing will modestly strengthen during the afternoon/evening. Richer moisture will remain well to the south, but dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s F are forecast. ...Florida... Cool temperatures aloft (-12 to -14 C at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. Strong heating and low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will foster moderate instability, with MLCAPE values topping out near 2000 J/kg. While deep-layer flow will remain modest, effective shear near 25 kt and vertically veering profiles will support at least transient storm organization. Low-level convergence along the sea breeze and the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered robust updrafts. The strongest storms could produce marginally severe hail and severe/damaging gusts. While low-level shear will remain weak, sufficient moisture and 0-3 km MLCAPE amid small but curved low-level hodographs suggests a brief tornado or two could develop on the sea breeze boundary. Uncertainty regarding storm coverage and longevity of strong updrafts precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Coastal GA/SC to southwest PA... A modestly destabilizing airmass ahead of the surface cold front and within the warm conveyor ahead of the upper low should support thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Low-level flow will remain light, but increase with height to around 50 kt at 500 mb, supporting 25-35 kt effective shear across the region, and leading to elongated/straight hodographs. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft (-14 to -18 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and gusty winds through early evening. ...New Mexico... Despite meager boundary layer moisture, cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization during the afternoon/evening. Shortwave impulses ejecting through increasing south/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the Southwest upper trough/low, and low-level upslope flow will allow for scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into the afternoon. Strong vertical shear should support at least a few organized cells despite modest instability, and isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southwestern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone will remain positioned over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper south to southwesterly flow from FL to the Upper OH Valley. Further west, a large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the western states, while an upper low develops within the southern branch of this system across the Southwest. As this occurs, strengthening mid/upper south/southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a weak low is expected across WV with a cold front extending south across the VA/NC Piedmont and the SC/GA coastal vicinity before arcing southwest across north FL and the eastern Gulf. Additionally, a sea breeze is expected to develop during the late morning into afternoon along the FL east coast. Modest boundary layer moisture from the upper 50s to mid 60s F (higher dewpoints with southward extent) will be in place ahead of the front. Across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity, lee troughing will modestly strengthen during the afternoon/evening. Richer moisture will remain well to the south, but dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s F are forecast. ...Florida... Cool temperatures aloft (-12 to -14 C at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. Strong heating and low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will foster moderate instability, with MLCAPE values topping out near 2000 J/kg. While deep-layer flow will remain modest, effective shear near 25 kt and vertically veering profiles will support at least transient storm organization. Low-level convergence along the sea breeze and the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered robust updrafts. The strongest storms could produce marginally severe hail and severe/damaging gusts. While low-level shear will remain weak, sufficient moisture and 0-3 km MLCAPE amid small but curved low-level hodographs suggests a brief tornado or two could develop on the sea breeze boundary. Uncertainty regarding storm coverage and longevity of strong updrafts precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Coastal GA/SC to southwest PA... A modestly destabilizing airmass ahead of the surface cold front and within the warm conveyor ahead of the upper low should support thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Low-level flow will remain light, but increase with height to around 50 kt at 500 mb, supporting 25-35 kt effective shear across the region, and leading to elongated/straight hodographs. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft (-14 to -18 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and gusty winds through early evening. ...New Mexico... Despite meager boundary layer moisture, cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization during the afternoon/evening. Shortwave impulses ejecting through increasing south/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the Southwest upper trough/low, and low-level upslope flow will allow for scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into the afternoon. Strong vertical shear should support at least a few organized cells despite modest instability, and isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southwestern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone will remain positioned over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper south to southwesterly flow from FL to the Upper OH Valley. Further west, a large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the western states, while an upper low develops within the southern branch of this system across the Southwest. As this occurs, strengthening mid/upper south/southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a weak low is expected across WV with a cold front extending south across the VA/NC Piedmont and the SC/GA coastal vicinity before arcing southwest across north FL and the eastern Gulf. Additionally, a sea breeze is expected to develop during the late morning into afternoon along the FL east coast. Modest boundary layer moisture from the upper 50s to mid 60s F (higher dewpoints with southward extent) will be in place ahead of the front. Across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity, lee troughing will modestly strengthen during the afternoon/evening. Richer moisture will remain well to the south, but dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s F are forecast. ...Florida... Cool temperatures aloft (-12 to -14 C at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. Strong heating and low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will foster moderate instability, with MLCAPE values topping out near 2000 J/kg. While deep-layer flow will remain modest, effective shear near 25 kt and vertically veering profiles will support at least transient storm organization. Low-level convergence along the sea breeze and the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered robust updrafts. The strongest storms could produce marginally severe hail and severe/damaging gusts. While low-level shear will remain weak, sufficient moisture and 0-3 km MLCAPE amid small but curved low-level hodographs suggests a brief tornado or two could develop on the sea breeze boundary. Uncertainty regarding storm coverage and longevity of strong updrafts precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Coastal GA/SC to southwest PA... A modestly destabilizing airmass ahead of the surface cold front and within the warm conveyor ahead of the upper low should support thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Low-level flow will remain light, but increase with height to around 50 kt at 500 mb, supporting 25-35 kt effective shear across the region, and leading to elongated/straight hodographs. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft (-14 to -18 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and gusty winds through early evening. ...New Mexico... Despite meager boundary layer moisture, cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization during the afternoon/evening. Shortwave impulses ejecting through increasing south/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the Southwest upper trough/low, and low-level upslope flow will allow for scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into the afternoon. Strong vertical shear should support at least a few organized cells despite modest instability, and isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southwestern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone will remain positioned over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper south to southwesterly flow from FL to the Upper OH Valley. Further west, a large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the western states, while an upper low develops within the southern branch of this system across the Southwest. As this occurs, strengthening mid/upper south/southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a weak low is expected across WV with a cold front extending south across the VA/NC Piedmont and the SC/GA coastal vicinity before arcing southwest across north FL and the eastern Gulf. Additionally, a sea breeze is expected to develop during the late morning into afternoon along the FL east coast. Modest boundary layer moisture from the upper 50s to mid 60s F (higher dewpoints with southward extent) will be in place ahead of the front. Across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity, lee troughing will modestly strengthen during the afternoon/evening. Richer moisture will remain well to the south, but dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s F are forecast. ...Florida... Cool temperatures aloft (-12 to -14 C at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. Strong heating and low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will foster moderate instability, with MLCAPE values topping out near 2000 J/kg. While deep-layer flow will remain modest, effective shear near 25 kt and vertically veering profiles will support at least transient storm organization. Low-level convergence along the sea breeze and the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered robust updrafts. The strongest storms could produce marginally severe hail and severe/damaging gusts. While low-level shear will remain weak, sufficient moisture and 0-3 km MLCAPE amid small but curved low-level hodographs suggests a brief tornado or two could develop on the sea breeze boundary. Uncertainty regarding storm coverage and longevity of strong updrafts precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Coastal GA/SC to southwest PA... A modestly destabilizing airmass ahead of the surface cold front and within the warm conveyor ahead of the upper low should support thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Low-level flow will remain light, but increase with height to around 50 kt at 500 mb, supporting 25-35 kt effective shear across the region, and leading to elongated/straight hodographs. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft (-14 to -18 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and gusty winds through early evening. ...New Mexico... Despite meager boundary layer moisture, cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization during the afternoon/evening. Shortwave impulses ejecting through increasing south/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the Southwest upper trough/low, and low-level upslope flow will allow for scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into the afternoon. Strong vertical shear should support at least a few organized cells despite modest instability, and isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southwestern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone will remain positioned over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper south to southwesterly flow from FL to the Upper OH Valley. Further west, a large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the western states, while an upper low develops within the southern branch of this system across the Southwest. As this occurs, strengthening mid/upper south/southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a weak low is expected across WV with a cold front extending south across the VA/NC Piedmont and the SC/GA coastal vicinity before arcing southwest across north FL and the eastern Gulf. Additionally, a sea breeze is expected to develop during the late morning into afternoon along the FL east coast. Modest boundary layer moisture from the upper 50s to mid 60s F (higher dewpoints with southward extent) will be in place ahead of the front. Across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity, lee troughing will modestly strengthen during the afternoon/evening. Richer moisture will remain well to the south, but dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s F are forecast. ...Florida... Cool temperatures aloft (-12 to -14 C at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. Strong heating and low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will foster moderate instability, with MLCAPE values topping out near 2000 J/kg. While deep-layer flow will remain modest, effective shear near 25 kt and vertically veering profiles will support at least transient storm organization. Low-level convergence along the sea breeze and the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered robust updrafts. The strongest storms could produce marginally severe hail and severe/damaging gusts. While low-level shear will remain weak, sufficient moisture and 0-3 km MLCAPE amid small but curved low-level hodographs suggests a brief tornado or two could develop on the sea breeze boundary. Uncertainty regarding storm coverage and longevity of strong updrafts precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Coastal GA/SC to southwest PA... A modestly destabilizing airmass ahead of the surface cold front and within the warm conveyor ahead of the upper low should support thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Low-level flow will remain light, but increase with height to around 50 kt at 500 mb, supporting 25-35 kt effective shear across the region, and leading to elongated/straight hodographs. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft (-14 to -18 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and gusty winds through early evening. ...New Mexico... Despite meager boundary layer moisture, cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization during the afternoon/evening. Shortwave impulses ejecting through increasing south/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the Southwest upper trough/low, and low-level upslope flow will allow for scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into the afternoon. Strong vertical shear should support at least a few organized cells despite modest instability, and isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southwestern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone will remain positioned over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper south to southwesterly flow from FL to the Upper OH Valley. Further west, a large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the western states, while an upper low develops within the southern branch of this system across the Southwest. As this occurs, strengthening mid/upper south/southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a weak low is expected across WV with a cold front extending south across the VA/NC Piedmont and the SC/GA coastal vicinity before arcing southwest across north FL and the eastern Gulf. Additionally, a sea breeze is expected to develop during the late morning into afternoon along the FL east coast. Modest boundary layer moisture from the upper 50s to mid 60s F (higher dewpoints with southward extent) will be in place ahead of the front. Across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity, lee troughing will modestly strengthen during the afternoon/evening. Richer moisture will remain well to the south, but dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s F are forecast. ...Florida... Cool temperatures aloft (-12 to -14 C at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. Strong heating and low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will foster moderate instability, with MLCAPE values topping out near 2000 J/kg. While deep-layer flow will remain modest, effective shear near 25 kt and vertically veering profiles will support at least transient storm organization. Low-level convergence along the sea breeze and the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered robust updrafts. The strongest storms could produce marginally severe hail and severe/damaging gusts. While low-level shear will remain weak, sufficient moisture and 0-3 km MLCAPE amid small but curved low-level hodographs suggests a brief tornado or two could develop on the sea breeze boundary. Uncertainty regarding storm coverage and longevity of strong updrafts precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Coastal GA/SC to southwest PA... A modestly destabilizing airmass ahead of the surface cold front and within the warm conveyor ahead of the upper low should support thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Low-level flow will remain light, but increase with height to around 50 kt at 500 mb, supporting 25-35 kt effective shear across the region, and leading to elongated/straight hodographs. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft (-14 to -18 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and gusty winds through early evening. ...New Mexico... Despite meager boundary layer moisture, cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization during the afternoon/evening. Shortwave impulses ejecting through increasing south/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the Southwest upper trough/low, and low-level upslope flow will allow for scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into the afternoon. Strong vertical shear should support at least a few organized cells despite modest instability, and isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southwestern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone will remain positioned over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper south to southwesterly flow from FL to the Upper OH Valley. Further west, a large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the western states, while an upper low develops within the southern branch of this system across the Southwest. As this occurs, strengthening mid/upper south/southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a weak low is expected across WV with a cold front extending south across the VA/NC Piedmont and the SC/GA coastal vicinity before arcing southwest across north FL and the eastern Gulf. Additionally, a sea breeze is expected to develop during the late morning into afternoon along the FL east coast. Modest boundary layer moisture from the upper 50s to mid 60s F (higher dewpoints with southward extent) will be in place ahead of the front. Across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity, lee troughing will modestly strengthen during the afternoon/evening. Richer moisture will remain well to the south, but dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s F are forecast. ...Florida... Cool temperatures aloft (-12 to -14 C at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. Strong heating and low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will foster moderate instability, with MLCAPE values topping out near 2000 J/kg. While deep-layer flow will remain modest, effective shear near 25 kt and vertically veering profiles will support at least transient storm organization. Low-level convergence along the sea breeze and the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered robust updrafts. The strongest storms could produce marginally severe hail and severe/damaging gusts. While low-level shear will remain weak, sufficient moisture and 0-3 km MLCAPE amid small but curved low-level hodographs suggests a brief tornado or two could develop on the sea breeze boundary. Uncertainty regarding storm coverage and longevity of strong updrafts precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Coastal GA/SC to southwest PA... A modestly destabilizing airmass ahead of the surface cold front and within the warm conveyor ahead of the upper low should support thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Low-level flow will remain light, but increase with height to around 50 kt at 500 mb, supporting 25-35 kt effective shear across the region, and leading to elongated/straight hodographs. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft (-14 to -18 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and gusty winds through early evening. ...New Mexico... Despite meager boundary layer moisture, cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization during the afternoon/evening. Shortwave impulses ejecting through increasing south/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the Southwest upper trough/low, and low-level upslope flow will allow for scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into the afternoon. Strong vertical shear should support at least a few organized cells despite modest instability, and isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southwestern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone will remain positioned over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper south to southwesterly flow from FL to the Upper OH Valley. Further west, a large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the western states, while an upper low develops within the southern branch of this system across the Southwest. As this occurs, strengthening mid/upper south/southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a weak low is expected across WV with a cold front extending south across the VA/NC Piedmont and the SC/GA coastal vicinity before arcing southwest across north FL and the eastern Gulf. Additionally, a sea breeze is expected to develop during the late morning into afternoon along the FL east coast. Modest boundary layer moisture from the upper 50s to mid 60s F (higher dewpoints with southward extent) will be in place ahead of the front. Across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity, lee troughing will modestly strengthen during the afternoon/evening. Richer moisture will remain well to the south, but dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s F are forecast. ...Florida... Cool temperatures aloft (-12 to -14 C at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. Strong heating and low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will foster moderate instability, with MLCAPE values topping out near 2000 J/kg. While deep-layer flow will remain modest, effective shear near 25 kt and vertically veering profiles will support at least transient storm organization. Low-level convergence along the sea breeze and the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered robust updrafts. The strongest storms could produce marginally severe hail and severe/damaging gusts. While low-level shear will remain weak, sufficient moisture and 0-3 km MLCAPE amid small but curved low-level hodographs suggests a brief tornado or two could develop on the sea breeze boundary. Uncertainty regarding storm coverage and longevity of strong updrafts precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Coastal GA/SC to southwest PA... A modestly destabilizing airmass ahead of the surface cold front and within the warm conveyor ahead of the upper low should support thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Low-level flow will remain light, but increase with height to around 50 kt at 500 mb, supporting 25-35 kt effective shear across the region, and leading to elongated/straight hodographs. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft (-14 to -18 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and gusty winds through early evening. ...New Mexico... Despite meager boundary layer moisture, cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization during the afternoon/evening. Shortwave impulses ejecting through increasing south/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the Southwest upper trough/low, and low-level upslope flow will allow for scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into the afternoon. Strong vertical shear should support at least a few organized cells despite modest instability, and isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southwestern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone will remain positioned over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper south to southwesterly flow from FL to the Upper OH Valley. Further west, a large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the western states, while an upper low develops within the southern branch of this system across the Southwest. As this occurs, strengthening mid/upper south/southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a weak low is expected across WV with a cold front extending south across the VA/NC Piedmont and the SC/GA coastal vicinity before arcing southwest across north FL and the eastern Gulf. Additionally, a sea breeze is expected to develop during the late morning into afternoon along the FL east coast. Modest boundary layer moisture from the upper 50s to mid 60s F (higher dewpoints with southward extent) will be in place ahead of the front. Across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity, lee troughing will modestly strengthen during the afternoon/evening. Richer moisture will remain well to the south, but dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s F are forecast. ...Florida... Cool temperatures aloft (-12 to -14 C at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. Strong heating and low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will foster moderate instability, with MLCAPE values topping out near 2000 J/kg. While deep-layer flow will remain modest, effective shear near 25 kt and vertically veering profiles will support at least transient storm organization. Low-level convergence along the sea breeze and the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered robust updrafts. The strongest storms could produce marginally severe hail and severe/damaging gusts. While low-level shear will remain weak, sufficient moisture and 0-3 km MLCAPE amid small but curved low-level hodographs suggests a brief tornado or two could develop on the sea breeze boundary. Uncertainty regarding storm coverage and longevity of strong updrafts precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Coastal GA/SC to southwest PA... A modestly destabilizing airmass ahead of the surface cold front and within the warm conveyor ahead of the upper low should support thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Low-level flow will remain light, but increase with height to around 50 kt at 500 mb, supporting 25-35 kt effective shear across the region, and leading to elongated/straight hodographs. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft (-14 to -18 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and gusty winds through early evening. ...New Mexico... Despite meager boundary layer moisture, cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization during the afternoon/evening. Shortwave impulses ejecting through increasing south/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the Southwest upper trough/low, and low-level upslope flow will allow for scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into the afternoon. Strong vertical shear should support at least a few organized cells despite modest instability, and isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southwestern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone will remain positioned over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper south to southwesterly flow from FL to the Upper OH Valley. Further west, a large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the western states, while an upper low develops within the southern branch of this system across the Southwest. As this occurs, strengthening mid/upper south/southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a weak low is expected across WV with a cold front extending south across the VA/NC Piedmont and the SC/GA coastal vicinity before arcing southwest across north FL and the eastern Gulf. Additionally, a sea breeze is expected to develop during the late morning into afternoon along the FL east coast. Modest boundary layer moisture from the upper 50s to mid 60s F (higher dewpoints with southward extent) will be in place ahead of the front. Across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity, lee troughing will modestly strengthen during the afternoon/evening. Richer moisture will remain well to the south, but dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s F are forecast. ...Florida... Cool temperatures aloft (-12 to -14 C at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. Strong heating and low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will foster moderate instability, with MLCAPE values topping out near 2000 J/kg. While deep-layer flow will remain modest, effective shear near 25 kt and vertically veering profiles will support at least transient storm organization. Low-level convergence along the sea breeze and the moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered robust updrafts. The strongest storms could produce marginally severe hail and severe/damaging gusts. While low-level shear will remain weak, sufficient moisture and 0-3 km MLCAPE amid small but curved low-level hodographs suggests a brief tornado or two could develop on the sea breeze boundary. Uncertainty regarding storm coverage and longevity of strong updrafts precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Coastal GA/SC to southwest PA... A modestly destabilizing airmass ahead of the surface cold front and within the warm conveyor ahead of the upper low should support thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Low-level flow will remain light, but increase with height to around 50 kt at 500 mb, supporting 25-35 kt effective shear across the region, and leading to elongated/straight hodographs. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft (-14 to -18 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and gusty winds through early evening. ...New Mexico... Despite meager boundary layer moisture, cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization during the afternoon/evening. Shortwave impulses ejecting through increasing south/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the Southwest upper trough/low, and low-level upslope flow will allow for scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into the afternoon. Strong vertical shear should support at least a few organized cells despite modest instability, and isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more