Aggregator

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...Synopsis... An ejecting shortwave trough will lift northeastward through Central into Northeast Texas on Tuesday. Continued moisture advection northward will bring upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints in South/Central/Southeast Texas and parts of the lower Mississippi Valley. Early period precipitation appears likely along a warm front within the Red River region southeastward into Louisiana. Additional early precipitation is possible within the Edwards Plateau into Central Texas, but uncertainty is greater in this scenario. A dryline is expected in central Texas during the afternoon. ...Central Texas into Sabine Valley... The expectation of early day precipitation complicates the overall forecast for the afternoon. Even so, a very moist and weakly capped airmass is forecast to be in place south of the warm front and east of the developing dryline. The ECMWF is more aggressive with the early development of a cluster of storms/MCS. In this scenario, convection would likely strengthen as surface heating occurs ahead of it. The GFS/NAM show greater potential for the dryline to be a focus for convection during the afternoon. Here, supercells capable of all hazards would be possible. There is potential for significant severe, with very large hail being the primary concern, but uncertainty in the convective evolution keeps confidence too low to highlight any particularly area. ...Red River into ArkLaTex... Storms along the warm front will likely be ongoing early in the day and continue to develop within the warm advection regime into the afternoon. Strong shear and moderate buoyancy would promote a risk for large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms and their interactions will tend to temper the overall severe threat. Many of these storms will be at least slightly elevated north of the boundary. Tornadoes could also occur with surface-based storms within the warm front zone. ..Wendt.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...Synopsis... An ejecting shortwave trough will lift northeastward through Central into Northeast Texas on Tuesday. Continued moisture advection northward will bring upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints in South/Central/Southeast Texas and parts of the lower Mississippi Valley. Early period precipitation appears likely along a warm front within the Red River region southeastward into Louisiana. Additional early precipitation is possible within the Edwards Plateau into Central Texas, but uncertainty is greater in this scenario. A dryline is expected in central Texas during the afternoon. ...Central Texas into Sabine Valley... The expectation of early day precipitation complicates the overall forecast for the afternoon. Even so, a very moist and weakly capped airmass is forecast to be in place south of the warm front and east of the developing dryline. The ECMWF is more aggressive with the early development of a cluster of storms/MCS. In this scenario, convection would likely strengthen as surface heating occurs ahead of it. The GFS/NAM show greater potential for the dryline to be a focus for convection during the afternoon. Here, supercells capable of all hazards would be possible. There is potential for significant severe, with very large hail being the primary concern, but uncertainty in the convective evolution keeps confidence too low to highlight any particularly area. ...Red River into ArkLaTex... Storms along the warm front will likely be ongoing early in the day and continue to develop within the warm advection regime into the afternoon. Strong shear and moderate buoyancy would promote a risk for large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms and their interactions will tend to temper the overall severe threat. Many of these storms will be at least slightly elevated north of the boundary. Tornadoes could also occur with surface-based storms within the warm front zone. ..Wendt.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...Synopsis... An ejecting shortwave trough will lift northeastward through Central into Northeast Texas on Tuesday. Continued moisture advection northward will bring upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints in South/Central/Southeast Texas and parts of the lower Mississippi Valley. Early period precipitation appears likely along a warm front within the Red River region southeastward into Louisiana. Additional early precipitation is possible within the Edwards Plateau into Central Texas, but uncertainty is greater in this scenario. A dryline is expected in central Texas during the afternoon. ...Central Texas into Sabine Valley... The expectation of early day precipitation complicates the overall forecast for the afternoon. Even so, a very moist and weakly capped airmass is forecast to be in place south of the warm front and east of the developing dryline. The ECMWF is more aggressive with the early development of a cluster of storms/MCS. In this scenario, convection would likely strengthen as surface heating occurs ahead of it. The GFS/NAM show greater potential for the dryline to be a focus for convection during the afternoon. Here, supercells capable of all hazards would be possible. There is potential for significant severe, with very large hail being the primary concern, but uncertainty in the convective evolution keeps confidence too low to highlight any particularly area. ...Red River into ArkLaTex... Storms along the warm front will likely be ongoing early in the day and continue to develop within the warm advection regime into the afternoon. Strong shear and moderate buoyancy would promote a risk for large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms and their interactions will tend to temper the overall severe threat. Many of these storms will be at least slightly elevated north of the boundary. Tornadoes could also occur with surface-based storms within the warm front zone. ..Wendt.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...Synopsis... An ejecting shortwave trough will lift northeastward through Central into Northeast Texas on Tuesday. Continued moisture advection northward will bring upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints in South/Central/Southeast Texas and parts of the lower Mississippi Valley. Early period precipitation appears likely along a warm front within the Red River region southeastward into Louisiana. Additional early precipitation is possible within the Edwards Plateau into Central Texas, but uncertainty is greater in this scenario. A dryline is expected in central Texas during the afternoon. ...Central Texas into Sabine Valley... The expectation of early day precipitation complicates the overall forecast for the afternoon. Even so, a very moist and weakly capped airmass is forecast to be in place south of the warm front and east of the developing dryline. The ECMWF is more aggressive with the early development of a cluster of storms/MCS. In this scenario, convection would likely strengthen as surface heating occurs ahead of it. The GFS/NAM show greater potential for the dryline to be a focus for convection during the afternoon. Here, supercells capable of all hazards would be possible. There is potential for significant severe, with very large hail being the primary concern, but uncertainty in the convective evolution keeps confidence too low to highlight any particularly area. ...Red River into ArkLaTex... Storms along the warm front will likely be ongoing early in the day and continue to develop within the warm advection regime into the afternoon. Strong shear and moderate buoyancy would promote a risk for large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms and their interactions will tend to temper the overall severe threat. Many of these storms will be at least slightly elevated north of the boundary. Tornadoes could also occur with surface-based storms within the warm front zone. ..Wendt.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to shift into West Texas on Monday as a dryline consolidates in tandem with a deepening surface low through late afternoon. Lingering fire weather concerns are also possible through the Red River Valley of the north and across parts of southern New Mexico. ...West Texas... The upper wave currently over southern CA will continue to shift east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern High Plains by late Monday afternoon. Southwesterly winds increasing to 15-25 mph behind a sharpening dryline will advect dry air from northern Mexico into West Texas. Relative humidity values falling into the teens to low 20s are likely by peak heating when boundary-layer mixing (and wind gust potential) will be maximized. Latest high-res guidance suggests a corridor of elevated fire weather is likely with localized critical conditions possible. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile should support the fire weather concern. ...New Mexico... Breezy west/southwest winds are likely Monday afternoon as the surface low consolidates to the east/southeast across West Texas. An influx of slightly more moist air from the west and mid-level cloud cover should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions to some degree. Latest ensemble guidance suggests that the best potential for sustained elevated fire weather conditions resides along the I-25 corridor in southwest NM where downslope warming/drying out of the Gila Region may promote locally drier/windier conditions. Risk probabilities were withheld for this outlook due to the weak ensemble signal/model dispersion and potential for precipitation over the next 24 hours within this corridor. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly gradient wind are expected to persist through Monday afternoon across much of eastern ND and northwest MN. With limited moisture return expected through the next 48 hours, afternoon RH minimums may fall into the low to mid 20s once again. Elevated conditions are possible, though a weaker wind signal compared to D1/Sunday, and the potential for a cold frontal passage late in the afternoon, limit confidence in the overall fire threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if guidance trends towards stronger winds and/or a later cold front arrival. ..Moore.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to shift into West Texas on Monday as a dryline consolidates in tandem with a deepening surface low through late afternoon. Lingering fire weather concerns are also possible through the Red River Valley of the north and across parts of southern New Mexico. ...West Texas... The upper wave currently over southern CA will continue to shift east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern High Plains by late Monday afternoon. Southwesterly winds increasing to 15-25 mph behind a sharpening dryline will advect dry air from northern Mexico into West Texas. Relative humidity values falling into the teens to low 20s are likely by peak heating when boundary-layer mixing (and wind gust potential) will be maximized. Latest high-res guidance suggests a corridor of elevated fire weather is likely with localized critical conditions possible. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile should support the fire weather concern. ...New Mexico... Breezy west/southwest winds are likely Monday afternoon as the surface low consolidates to the east/southeast across West Texas. An influx of slightly more moist air from the west and mid-level cloud cover should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions to some degree. Latest ensemble guidance suggests that the best potential for sustained elevated fire weather conditions resides along the I-25 corridor in southwest NM where downslope warming/drying out of the Gila Region may promote locally drier/windier conditions. Risk probabilities were withheld for this outlook due to the weak ensemble signal/model dispersion and potential for precipitation over the next 24 hours within this corridor. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly gradient wind are expected to persist through Monday afternoon across much of eastern ND and northwest MN. With limited moisture return expected through the next 48 hours, afternoon RH minimums may fall into the low to mid 20s once again. Elevated conditions are possible, though a weaker wind signal compared to D1/Sunday, and the potential for a cold frontal passage late in the afternoon, limit confidence in the overall fire threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if guidance trends towards stronger winds and/or a later cold front arrival. ..Moore.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to shift into West Texas on Monday as a dryline consolidates in tandem with a deepening surface low through late afternoon. Lingering fire weather concerns are also possible through the Red River Valley of the north and across parts of southern New Mexico. ...West Texas... The upper wave currently over southern CA will continue to shift east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern High Plains by late Monday afternoon. Southwesterly winds increasing to 15-25 mph behind a sharpening dryline will advect dry air from northern Mexico into West Texas. Relative humidity values falling into the teens to low 20s are likely by peak heating when boundary-layer mixing (and wind gust potential) will be maximized. Latest high-res guidance suggests a corridor of elevated fire weather is likely with localized critical conditions possible. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile should support the fire weather concern. ...New Mexico... Breezy west/southwest winds are likely Monday afternoon as the surface low consolidates to the east/southeast across West Texas. An influx of slightly more moist air from the west and mid-level cloud cover should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions to some degree. Latest ensemble guidance suggests that the best potential for sustained elevated fire weather conditions resides along the I-25 corridor in southwest NM where downslope warming/drying out of the Gila Region may promote locally drier/windier conditions. Risk probabilities were withheld for this outlook due to the weak ensemble signal/model dispersion and potential for precipitation over the next 24 hours within this corridor. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly gradient wind are expected to persist through Monday afternoon across much of eastern ND and northwest MN. With limited moisture return expected through the next 48 hours, afternoon RH minimums may fall into the low to mid 20s once again. Elevated conditions are possible, though a weaker wind signal compared to D1/Sunday, and the potential for a cold frontal passage late in the afternoon, limit confidence in the overall fire threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if guidance trends towards stronger winds and/or a later cold front arrival. ..Moore.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to shift into West Texas on Monday as a dryline consolidates in tandem with a deepening surface low through late afternoon. Lingering fire weather concerns are also possible through the Red River Valley of the north and across parts of southern New Mexico. ...West Texas... The upper wave currently over southern CA will continue to shift east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern High Plains by late Monday afternoon. Southwesterly winds increasing to 15-25 mph behind a sharpening dryline will advect dry air from northern Mexico into West Texas. Relative humidity values falling into the teens to low 20s are likely by peak heating when boundary-layer mixing (and wind gust potential) will be maximized. Latest high-res guidance suggests a corridor of elevated fire weather is likely with localized critical conditions possible. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile should support the fire weather concern. ...New Mexico... Breezy west/southwest winds are likely Monday afternoon as the surface low consolidates to the east/southeast across West Texas. An influx of slightly more moist air from the west and mid-level cloud cover should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions to some degree. Latest ensemble guidance suggests that the best potential for sustained elevated fire weather conditions resides along the I-25 corridor in southwest NM where downslope warming/drying out of the Gila Region may promote locally drier/windier conditions. Risk probabilities were withheld for this outlook due to the weak ensemble signal/model dispersion and potential for precipitation over the next 24 hours within this corridor. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly gradient wind are expected to persist through Monday afternoon across much of eastern ND and northwest MN. With limited moisture return expected through the next 48 hours, afternoon RH minimums may fall into the low to mid 20s once again. Elevated conditions are possible, though a weaker wind signal compared to D1/Sunday, and the potential for a cold frontal passage late in the afternoon, limit confidence in the overall fire threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if guidance trends towards stronger winds and/or a later cold front arrival. ..Moore.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to shift into West Texas on Monday as a dryline consolidates in tandem with a deepening surface low through late afternoon. Lingering fire weather concerns are also possible through the Red River Valley of the north and across parts of southern New Mexico. ...West Texas... The upper wave currently over southern CA will continue to shift east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern High Plains by late Monday afternoon. Southwesterly winds increasing to 15-25 mph behind a sharpening dryline will advect dry air from northern Mexico into West Texas. Relative humidity values falling into the teens to low 20s are likely by peak heating when boundary-layer mixing (and wind gust potential) will be maximized. Latest high-res guidance suggests a corridor of elevated fire weather is likely with localized critical conditions possible. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile should support the fire weather concern. ...New Mexico... Breezy west/southwest winds are likely Monday afternoon as the surface low consolidates to the east/southeast across West Texas. An influx of slightly more moist air from the west and mid-level cloud cover should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions to some degree. Latest ensemble guidance suggests that the best potential for sustained elevated fire weather conditions resides along the I-25 corridor in southwest NM where downslope warming/drying out of the Gila Region may promote locally drier/windier conditions. Risk probabilities were withheld for this outlook due to the weak ensemble signal/model dispersion and potential for precipitation over the next 24 hours within this corridor. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly gradient wind are expected to persist through Monday afternoon across much of eastern ND and northwest MN. With limited moisture return expected through the next 48 hours, afternoon RH minimums may fall into the low to mid 20s once again. Elevated conditions are possible, though a weaker wind signal compared to D1/Sunday, and the potential for a cold frontal passage late in the afternoon, limit confidence in the overall fire threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if guidance trends towards stronger winds and/or a later cold front arrival. ..Moore.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to shift into West Texas on Monday as a dryline consolidates in tandem with a deepening surface low through late afternoon. Lingering fire weather concerns are also possible through the Red River Valley of the north and across parts of southern New Mexico. ...West Texas... The upper wave currently over southern CA will continue to shift east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern High Plains by late Monday afternoon. Southwesterly winds increasing to 15-25 mph behind a sharpening dryline will advect dry air from northern Mexico into West Texas. Relative humidity values falling into the teens to low 20s are likely by peak heating when boundary-layer mixing (and wind gust potential) will be maximized. Latest high-res guidance suggests a corridor of elevated fire weather is likely with localized critical conditions possible. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile should support the fire weather concern. ...New Mexico... Breezy west/southwest winds are likely Monday afternoon as the surface low consolidates to the east/southeast across West Texas. An influx of slightly more moist air from the west and mid-level cloud cover should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions to some degree. Latest ensemble guidance suggests that the best potential for sustained elevated fire weather conditions resides along the I-25 corridor in southwest NM where downslope warming/drying out of the Gila Region may promote locally drier/windier conditions. Risk probabilities were withheld for this outlook due to the weak ensemble signal/model dispersion and potential for precipitation over the next 24 hours within this corridor. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly gradient wind are expected to persist through Monday afternoon across much of eastern ND and northwest MN. With limited moisture return expected through the next 48 hours, afternoon RH minimums may fall into the low to mid 20s once again. Elevated conditions are possible, though a weaker wind signal compared to D1/Sunday, and the potential for a cold frontal passage late in the afternoon, limit confidence in the overall fire threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if guidance trends towards stronger winds and/or a later cold front arrival. ..Moore.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Southwest and northern Plains this afternoon. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depict an upper wave over southern CA with a broad zone of ascent overspreading the Great Basin and Southwest. At the surface, pressure falls are noted over the Four Corners region and northern High Plains and should continue well into the afternoon hours as the upper wave gradually drifts east. Increasing southerly winds across along both international borders should result in areas of dry/windy conditions. ...Southwest New Mexico... Dewpoints in the low teens are noted in far southeast AZ early this morning, which appear to be the northwestern periphery of a very dry air mass in place across northern Mexico based on recent RTMA analyses. This air mass will spread north through the day as southerly winds increase in response the surface low development over the Four Corners region. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens are likely with 15-25 mph overspreading much of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected over an area with receptive fuels. Dry/windy conditions may extend well north of the current outline lines, but recent rainfall and/or the potential for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon should limit the spatial extent of the threat. ...North Dakota... Southerly winds between 15-20 mph are expected across much of the northern Plains this afternoon as a surface trough deepens along the northern High Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted appreciable moisture well south into the southern Plains, limiting the potential for moisture return over the next 12 hours. Additionally, unseasonably warm high temperatures are forecast for today (into the 80s), which will support RH reductions to near 20%. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely - especially along and north of the Highway 2 corridor where recent HRRR/RAP runs (which typically handle dry return flow regimes well) show the highest potential for sustained 20 mph winds. Although much of the region has received some rainfall within the past week, local fuel and fire reports indicate that dry/dead grasses remain in the fuel landscape and should support fire spread. ..Moore.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Southwest and northern Plains this afternoon. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depict an upper wave over southern CA with a broad zone of ascent overspreading the Great Basin and Southwest. At the surface, pressure falls are noted over the Four Corners region and northern High Plains and should continue well into the afternoon hours as the upper wave gradually drifts east. Increasing southerly winds across along both international borders should result in areas of dry/windy conditions. ...Southwest New Mexico... Dewpoints in the low teens are noted in far southeast AZ early this morning, which appear to be the northwestern periphery of a very dry air mass in place across northern Mexico based on recent RTMA analyses. This air mass will spread north through the day as southerly winds increase in response the surface low development over the Four Corners region. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens are likely with 15-25 mph overspreading much of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected over an area with receptive fuels. Dry/windy conditions may extend well north of the current outline lines, but recent rainfall and/or the potential for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon should limit the spatial extent of the threat. ...North Dakota... Southerly winds between 15-20 mph are expected across much of the northern Plains this afternoon as a surface trough deepens along the northern High Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted appreciable moisture well south into the southern Plains, limiting the potential for moisture return over the next 12 hours. Additionally, unseasonably warm high temperatures are forecast for today (into the 80s), which will support RH reductions to near 20%. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely - especially along and north of the Highway 2 corridor where recent HRRR/RAP runs (which typically handle dry return flow regimes well) show the highest potential for sustained 20 mph winds. Although much of the region has received some rainfall within the past week, local fuel and fire reports indicate that dry/dead grasses remain in the fuel landscape and should support fire spread. ..Moore.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Southwest and northern Plains this afternoon. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depict an upper wave over southern CA with a broad zone of ascent overspreading the Great Basin and Southwest. At the surface, pressure falls are noted over the Four Corners region and northern High Plains and should continue well into the afternoon hours as the upper wave gradually drifts east. Increasing southerly winds across along both international borders should result in areas of dry/windy conditions. ...Southwest New Mexico... Dewpoints in the low teens are noted in far southeast AZ early this morning, which appear to be the northwestern periphery of a very dry air mass in place across northern Mexico based on recent RTMA analyses. This air mass will spread north through the day as southerly winds increase in response the surface low development over the Four Corners region. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens are likely with 15-25 mph overspreading much of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected over an area with receptive fuels. Dry/windy conditions may extend well north of the current outline lines, but recent rainfall and/or the potential for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon should limit the spatial extent of the threat. ...North Dakota... Southerly winds between 15-20 mph are expected across much of the northern Plains this afternoon as a surface trough deepens along the northern High Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted appreciable moisture well south into the southern Plains, limiting the potential for moisture return over the next 12 hours. Additionally, unseasonably warm high temperatures are forecast for today (into the 80s), which will support RH reductions to near 20%. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely - especially along and north of the Highway 2 corridor where recent HRRR/RAP runs (which typically handle dry return flow regimes well) show the highest potential for sustained 20 mph winds. Although much of the region has received some rainfall within the past week, local fuel and fire reports indicate that dry/dead grasses remain in the fuel landscape and should support fire spread. ..Moore.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Southwest and northern Plains this afternoon. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depict an upper wave over southern CA with a broad zone of ascent overspreading the Great Basin and Southwest. At the surface, pressure falls are noted over the Four Corners region and northern High Plains and should continue well into the afternoon hours as the upper wave gradually drifts east. Increasing southerly winds across along both international borders should result in areas of dry/windy conditions. ...Southwest New Mexico... Dewpoints in the low teens are noted in far southeast AZ early this morning, which appear to be the northwestern periphery of a very dry air mass in place across northern Mexico based on recent RTMA analyses. This air mass will spread north through the day as southerly winds increase in response the surface low development over the Four Corners region. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens are likely with 15-25 mph overspreading much of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected over an area with receptive fuels. Dry/windy conditions may extend well north of the current outline lines, but recent rainfall and/or the potential for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon should limit the spatial extent of the threat. ...North Dakota... Southerly winds between 15-20 mph are expected across much of the northern Plains this afternoon as a surface trough deepens along the northern High Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted appreciable moisture well south into the southern Plains, limiting the potential for moisture return over the next 12 hours. Additionally, unseasonably warm high temperatures are forecast for today (into the 80s), which will support RH reductions to near 20%. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely - especially along and north of the Highway 2 corridor where recent HRRR/RAP runs (which typically handle dry return flow regimes well) show the highest potential for sustained 20 mph winds. Although much of the region has received some rainfall within the past week, local fuel and fire reports indicate that dry/dead grasses remain in the fuel landscape and should support fire spread. ..Moore.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Southwest and northern Plains this afternoon. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depict an upper wave over southern CA with a broad zone of ascent overspreading the Great Basin and Southwest. At the surface, pressure falls are noted over the Four Corners region and northern High Plains and should continue well into the afternoon hours as the upper wave gradually drifts east. Increasing southerly winds across along both international borders should result in areas of dry/windy conditions. ...Southwest New Mexico... Dewpoints in the low teens are noted in far southeast AZ early this morning, which appear to be the northwestern periphery of a very dry air mass in place across northern Mexico based on recent RTMA analyses. This air mass will spread north through the day as southerly winds increase in response the surface low development over the Four Corners region. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens are likely with 15-25 mph overspreading much of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected over an area with receptive fuels. Dry/windy conditions may extend well north of the current outline lines, but recent rainfall and/or the potential for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon should limit the spatial extent of the threat. ...North Dakota... Southerly winds between 15-20 mph are expected across much of the northern Plains this afternoon as a surface trough deepens along the northern High Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted appreciable moisture well south into the southern Plains, limiting the potential for moisture return over the next 12 hours. Additionally, unseasonably warm high temperatures are forecast for today (into the 80s), which will support RH reductions to near 20%. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely - especially along and north of the Highway 2 corridor where recent HRRR/RAP runs (which typically handle dry return flow regimes well) show the highest potential for sustained 20 mph winds. Although much of the region has received some rainfall within the past week, local fuel and fire reports indicate that dry/dead grasses remain in the fuel landscape and should support fire spread. ..Moore.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Southwest and northern Plains this afternoon. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depict an upper wave over southern CA with a broad zone of ascent overspreading the Great Basin and Southwest. At the surface, pressure falls are noted over the Four Corners region and northern High Plains and should continue well into the afternoon hours as the upper wave gradually drifts east. Increasing southerly winds across along both international borders should result in areas of dry/windy conditions. ...Southwest New Mexico... Dewpoints in the low teens are noted in far southeast AZ early this morning, which appear to be the northwestern periphery of a very dry air mass in place across northern Mexico based on recent RTMA analyses. This air mass will spread north through the day as southerly winds increase in response the surface low development over the Four Corners region. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens are likely with 15-25 mph overspreading much of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected over an area with receptive fuels. Dry/windy conditions may extend well north of the current outline lines, but recent rainfall and/or the potential for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon should limit the spatial extent of the threat. ...North Dakota... Southerly winds between 15-20 mph are expected across much of the northern Plains this afternoon as a surface trough deepens along the northern High Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted appreciable moisture well south into the southern Plains, limiting the potential for moisture return over the next 12 hours. Additionally, unseasonably warm high temperatures are forecast for today (into the 80s), which will support RH reductions to near 20%. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely - especially along and north of the Highway 2 corridor where recent HRRR/RAP runs (which typically handle dry return flow regimes well) show the highest potential for sustained 20 mph winds. Although much of the region has received some rainfall within the past week, local fuel and fire reports indicate that dry/dead grasses remain in the fuel landscape and should support fire spread. ..Moore.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Synopsis... Two upper-level lows, one in the Ohio Valley and the other in the Southwest, will make slow eastward progress on Monday. A cold front from the Upper Ohio Valley southward into the Mid-Atlantic and central Florida will be a focus for convection during the afternoon. In the southern High Plains, a surface trough/dryline will form and promote afternoon thunderstorms as greater moisture moves westward into the region. ...Southern High Plains into Central Texas... As the upper low advances toward the region late Sunday into Monday, some convection is possible from northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Low cloud cover is also expected along with the moisture returning northwest across Texas into eastern New Mexico. While these will be complicating factors in the forecast, the approach of the upper low and embedded perturbations will encourage the development of a dryline from far eastern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos. Strong heating along this dryline, where upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints will reside, will drive storm development during the afternoon. Hodographs will initially be rather straight. Splitting supercells capable of large/very-large hail and severe winds are probable. During the early evening, the low-level jet will strengthen. Moisture return will increase and low-level hodographs will become larger. A zone of greater tornado potential is evident from southern portions of the South Plains into the northern Permian Basin, particularly for supercells lasting into the early evening. The evolution of convection becomes a bit more uncertain into the later evening. The ramp up in the low-level jet should eventually promote upscale growth into a cluster/MCS. This activity could persist into parts of central Texas. Model guidance continues to differ on the placement of this feature. The exact track will depend largely on how far north the greater moisture is able to advect. Severe winds would be the primary threat with these storms, though low-level shear would also support some tornado risk even with a linear mode. During the overnight and into Tuesday morning, the greatest mid-level height falls will occur in the southern High Plains. An additional cluster/MCS on the retreating dryline. How severe this activity will be is unclear given the time of day and the preceding convection. ...Florida... With cold temperatures aloft (-10 to -12 C) remaining over the Peninsula and stronger surface heating expected to occur, a few strong to severe storms will again be possible along the eastern sea breeze boundary. 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 25-35 kts of effective shear (stronger to the north) will promote supercell structures capable of large hail and damaging winds. A brief tornado would be possible with storms that interact favorably with the sea breeze boundary. ...Mid-Atlantic into Upper Ohio Valley... While some precipitation and cloud cover may occur early Monday morning, models continue to show agreement that pockets of surface heating will promote around 1000 J/kg by the afternoon. Enhanced mid-level winds around the Ohio Valley upper low will foster 40-45 kts of effective shear. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Synopsis... Two upper-level lows, one in the Ohio Valley and the other in the Southwest, will make slow eastward progress on Monday. A cold front from the Upper Ohio Valley southward into the Mid-Atlantic and central Florida will be a focus for convection during the afternoon. In the southern High Plains, a surface trough/dryline will form and promote afternoon thunderstorms as greater moisture moves westward into the region. ...Southern High Plains into Central Texas... As the upper low advances toward the region late Sunday into Monday, some convection is possible from northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Low cloud cover is also expected along with the moisture returning northwest across Texas into eastern New Mexico. While these will be complicating factors in the forecast, the approach of the upper low and embedded perturbations will encourage the development of a dryline from far eastern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos. Strong heating along this dryline, where upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints will reside, will drive storm development during the afternoon. Hodographs will initially be rather straight. Splitting supercells capable of large/very-large hail and severe winds are probable. During the early evening, the low-level jet will strengthen. Moisture return will increase and low-level hodographs will become larger. A zone of greater tornado potential is evident from southern portions of the South Plains into the northern Permian Basin, particularly for supercells lasting into the early evening. The evolution of convection becomes a bit more uncertain into the later evening. The ramp up in the low-level jet should eventually promote upscale growth into a cluster/MCS. This activity could persist into parts of central Texas. Model guidance continues to differ on the placement of this feature. The exact track will depend largely on how far north the greater moisture is able to advect. Severe winds would be the primary threat with these storms, though low-level shear would also support some tornado risk even with a linear mode. During the overnight and into Tuesday morning, the greatest mid-level height falls will occur in the southern High Plains. An additional cluster/MCS on the retreating dryline. How severe this activity will be is unclear given the time of day and the preceding convection. ...Florida... With cold temperatures aloft (-10 to -12 C) remaining over the Peninsula and stronger surface heating expected to occur, a few strong to severe storms will again be possible along the eastern sea breeze boundary. 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 25-35 kts of effective shear (stronger to the north) will promote supercell structures capable of large hail and damaging winds. A brief tornado would be possible with storms that interact favorably with the sea breeze boundary. ...Mid-Atlantic into Upper Ohio Valley... While some precipitation and cloud cover may occur early Monday morning, models continue to show agreement that pockets of surface heating will promote around 1000 J/kg by the afternoon. Enhanced mid-level winds around the Ohio Valley upper low will foster 40-45 kts of effective shear. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Synopsis... Two upper-level lows, one in the Ohio Valley and the other in the Southwest, will make slow eastward progress on Monday. A cold front from the Upper Ohio Valley southward into the Mid-Atlantic and central Florida will be a focus for convection during the afternoon. In the southern High Plains, a surface trough/dryline will form and promote afternoon thunderstorms as greater moisture moves westward into the region. ...Southern High Plains into Central Texas... As the upper low advances toward the region late Sunday into Monday, some convection is possible from northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Low cloud cover is also expected along with the moisture returning northwest across Texas into eastern New Mexico. While these will be complicating factors in the forecast, the approach of the upper low and embedded perturbations will encourage the development of a dryline from far eastern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos. Strong heating along this dryline, where upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints will reside, will drive storm development during the afternoon. Hodographs will initially be rather straight. Splitting supercells capable of large/very-large hail and severe winds are probable. During the early evening, the low-level jet will strengthen. Moisture return will increase and low-level hodographs will become larger. A zone of greater tornado potential is evident from southern portions of the South Plains into the northern Permian Basin, particularly for supercells lasting into the early evening. The evolution of convection becomes a bit more uncertain into the later evening. The ramp up in the low-level jet should eventually promote upscale growth into a cluster/MCS. This activity could persist into parts of central Texas. Model guidance continues to differ on the placement of this feature. The exact track will depend largely on how far north the greater moisture is able to advect. Severe winds would be the primary threat with these storms, though low-level shear would also support some tornado risk even with a linear mode. During the overnight and into Tuesday morning, the greatest mid-level height falls will occur in the southern High Plains. An additional cluster/MCS on the retreating dryline. How severe this activity will be is unclear given the time of day and the preceding convection. ...Florida... With cold temperatures aloft (-10 to -12 C) remaining over the Peninsula and stronger surface heating expected to occur, a few strong to severe storms will again be possible along the eastern sea breeze boundary. 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 25-35 kts of effective shear (stronger to the north) will promote supercell structures capable of large hail and damaging winds. A brief tornado would be possible with storms that interact favorably with the sea breeze boundary. ...Mid-Atlantic into Upper Ohio Valley... While some precipitation and cloud cover may occur early Monday morning, models continue to show agreement that pockets of surface heating will promote around 1000 J/kg by the afternoon. Enhanced mid-level winds around the Ohio Valley upper low will foster 40-45 kts of effective shear. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 05/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Synopsis... Two upper-level lows, one in the Ohio Valley and the other in the Southwest, will make slow eastward progress on Monday. A cold front from the Upper Ohio Valley southward into the Mid-Atlantic and central Florida will be a focus for convection during the afternoon. In the southern High Plains, a surface trough/dryline will form and promote afternoon thunderstorms as greater moisture moves westward into the region. ...Southern High Plains into Central Texas... As the upper low advances toward the region late Sunday into Monday, some convection is possible from northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Low cloud cover is also expected along with the moisture returning northwest across Texas into eastern New Mexico. While these will be complicating factors in the forecast, the approach of the upper low and embedded perturbations will encourage the development of a dryline from far eastern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos. Strong heating along this dryline, where upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints will reside, will drive storm development during the afternoon. Hodographs will initially be rather straight. Splitting supercells capable of large/very-large hail and severe winds are probable. During the early evening, the low-level jet will strengthen. Moisture return will increase and low-level hodographs will become larger. A zone of greater tornado potential is evident from southern portions of the South Plains into the northern Permian Basin, particularly for supercells lasting into the early evening. The evolution of convection becomes a bit more uncertain into the later evening. The ramp up in the low-level jet should eventually promote upscale growth into a cluster/MCS. This activity could persist into parts of central Texas. Model guidance continues to differ on the placement of this feature. The exact track will depend largely on how far north the greater moisture is able to advect. Severe winds would be the primary threat with these storms, though low-level shear would also support some tornado risk even with a linear mode. During the overnight and into Tuesday morning, the greatest mid-level height falls will occur in the southern High Plains. An additional cluster/MCS on the retreating dryline. How severe this activity will be is unclear given the time of day and the preceding convection. ...Florida... With cold temperatures aloft (-10 to -12 C) remaining over the Peninsula and stronger surface heating expected to occur, a few strong to severe storms will again be possible along the eastern sea breeze boundary. 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 25-35 kts of effective shear (stronger to the north) will promote supercell structures capable of large hail and damaging winds. A brief tornado would be possible with storms that interact favorably with the sea breeze boundary. ...Mid-Atlantic into Upper Ohio Valley... While some precipitation and cloud cover may occur early Monday morning, models continue to show agreement that pockets of surface heating will promote around 1000 J/kg by the afternoon. Enhanced mid-level winds around the Ohio Valley upper low will foster 40-45 kts of effective shear. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 05/04/2025 Read more