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MD 0666 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0666 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Mississippi into Alabama and southern Middle Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 031734Z - 032000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat should gradually increase into the afternoon hours. At least isolated instances of strong/damaging gusts or large hail are possible with the stronger, sustained storms. DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts deepening convection along the MS/AL border, with 40 dBZ echoes reaching 30 kft amid increasing lightning trends. These storms are attempting to strengthen amid a modestly sheared airmass (i.e. 40 kts of effective bulk shear per 17Z mesoanalysis and regional VADs). However, buoyancy still remains quite marginal, with surface temperatures/dewpoints in the 60s F, beneath 6 C/km tropospheric lapse rates, contributing to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Diurnal heating may further boost low-level lapse rates, supporting better boundary-layer buoyancy and the potential for stronger storms later this afternoon, with mixed storm modes supporting the threat for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps some hail. It is unclear how widespread the severe potential will become since ample cloud cover may continue to inhibit diurnal heating to some degree. If greater buoyancy is realized than forecast, then regionally greater severe potential may materialize, which could necessitate a WW issuance. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN... LAT...LON 31588904 32108926 32918868 34438751 35028710 35188672 34928605 33628598 32378640 31848706 31638802 31588904 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0218 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S POU TO 15 ENE PSF TO 25 ESE LCI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0668. ..GRAMS..05/03/25 ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...GYX...OKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC003-005-013-032040- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARTFORD LITCHFIELD TOLLAND MAC011-013-015-017-027-032040- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX WORCESTER NHC005-011-015-032040- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHESHIRE HILLSBOROUGH ROCKINGHAM Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more