National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 the center of Nine-E was located near 18.9, -109.8 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 120247 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019 0300 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 109.8W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 109.8W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 109.2W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 19.4N 111.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.3N 113.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.3N 115.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.1N 117.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 23.7N 123.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 109.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 112342
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Aug 11 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated near the center
of a small low pressure system located a few hundred miles south of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Satellite images
also indicate that the low is gradually becoming better defined. If
this recent development trend continues, then advisories could be
initiated on a tropical depression or a tropical storm later tonight
while the disturbance moves generally west-northwestward, away from
the coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for significant development by early Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

An area of disturbed weather located about 1000 miles southwest of
the Baja California peninsula remains disorganized. Environmental
conditions are expected to become gradually more conducive for
tropical cyclone formation by the middle of the week while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 112159
TWOEP

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
300 PM PDT Sun Aug 11 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of
the low-pressure system south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

Thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure system located
a few hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula have become a little better organized during the past
several hours. In addition, recent satellite-derived surface wind
data indicate that the low has become better defined, with winds
just below tropical-storm strength occurring near and to the east
of the center. If this recent development trend continues, then
advisories could be initiated on a tropical depression or a tropical
storm later this evening while the disturbance moves westward to
west-northwestward, away from the coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions are expected to become unfavorable for significant
development on Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A disturbance located a little less than 1000 miles southwest of the
Baja California peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to
become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation by the middle
of the week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111730
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 11 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some development
of this system is possible over the next day or so while it moves
west-northwestward, away from the coast of Mexico. Thereafter,
conditions are expected to become unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A disturbance located a little less than 1000 miles southwest of the
Baja California peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to
become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation by the middle
of the week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111135
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Aug 11 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible over the
next day or so as it moves west-northwestward, away from the coast
of Mexico. Thereafter, conditions are expected to become unfavorable
for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula
are associated with a trough of low pressure. Development of this
system is no longer expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...0 percent.

A disturbance located little a less than 1000 miles south-southwest
of the Baja California peninsula is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation
by the middle of the week as the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 110500
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 10 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the
southwestern coast of Mexico is associated with a trough of low
pressure. This system has not become any better organized since
yesterday, and the chances of tropical cyclone formation are
diminishing. The disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward
just off the southwestern coast of Mexico bringing locally heavy
rainfall along portions of that area during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico is already merging with the
disturbance to its north. Development of this system is becoming
less likely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A disorganized area of disturbed weather continues to be located a
little less than 1000 miles south-southwest of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for tropical cyclone formation by the middle next week as
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 102316
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 10 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the
southwestern coast of Mexico is associated with a trough of low
pressure. This system has about a day or two to become a tropical
depression as it moves west-northwestward just off the southwestern
coast of Mexico. After that time, conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. Regardless of
development, the disturbance will likely bring locally heavy
rainfall along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico is beginning to merge with the
larger disturbance to its north. Development of this system is
becoming less likely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of disturbed weather located a little less than 1000
miles south-southwest of the Baja California peninsula is currently
disorganized. However, environmental conditions are expected to
become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation by the middle
next week as this disturbance moves westward or west- northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101722
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 10 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure located about 100 miles southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. Some gradual development is possible during the next
couple of days and a tropical depression could form while the system
moves west-northwestward just off the southwestern coast of Mexico.
After that time, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for
tropical cyclone formation. Regardless of development, the
disturbance will likely bring locally heavy rainfall along portions
of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Any development of this system during the
next day or so should be slow to occur due to its close proximity to
the disturbance near the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

An area of disturbed weather is located a little less than 1000
miles south-southwest of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
tropical cyclone formation by the middle next week as this
disturbance moves westward or west- northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101143
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Aug 10 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure located about 100 miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions could still favor some gradual development
during the next couple of days while the system moves
west-northwestward just off the southwestern coast of Mexico. After
that time, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for
tropical cyclone formation. Regardless of development, the
disturbance will likely bring locally heavy rainfall along portions
of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A broad area of low pressure has developed a few hundred miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico and is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is
possible over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A tropical wave located a little less than 1000 miles south-
southwest of the Baja California peninsula is producing an area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation
early next week while the system moves westward or west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 100500
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 9 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of disturbed weather associated with a small low pressure
system is located about 100 miles southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.
This disturbance remains disorganized and the thunderstorm activity
is limited at this time. However, environmental conditions could
still favor some gradual development during the next couple of days
while the system moves west-northwestward just off the southwestern
coast of Mexico. After that time, conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. Regardless of
development, the disturbance will likely bring locally heavy
rainfall along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A tropical wave located a little less than 1000 miles south-
southwest of the Baja California peninsula is producing an area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation
early next week while the system moves westward or west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 092321
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Aug 9 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of disturbed weather associated with a broad area of low
pressure is hugging the southern coast of Mexico, and some of the
rainbands are already spreading inland over the state of Oaxaca.
This system remains disorganized, but environmental conditions could
favor some gradual development during the next 2 or 3 days while it
moves west-northwestward just off the southwestern coast of Mexico.
After that time conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for
tropical cyclone formation. Regardless of development, the
disturbance will likely bring locally heavy rainfall along portions
of the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles south-southwest of the
Baja California peninsula is producing an area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to
gradually become more conducive for development through the middle
of next week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091731
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 9 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the southern coast
of Mexico are associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive
for some gradual development of this system through early next week
while the system moves west-northwestward just off the southwestern
coast of Mexico. After that time, conditions are forecast to
become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. Regardless
of development, the disturbance could product locally heavy rainfall
along portions of the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A tropical wave located about 900 miles south-southwest of the Baja
California peninsula is producing an area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to
gradually become more conducive for development through the middle
of next week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091135
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Aug 9 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec have become a little
more concentrated overnight. Conditions are forecast to be
conducive for some additional development over the weekend and
a tropical depression could form within the next few days while
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, just off the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, this
system could product locally heavy rainfall along portions of the
southern and southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by
early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually
become more conducive for development through the middle of next
week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

257
ABPZ20 KNHC 090500
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The area of cloudiness and thunderstorms previously located south of
Central America has moved westward and is now over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. A low pressure area is forecast to form within this
area of disturbed weather a few hundred miles south or southwest of
the southern coast of Mexico by this weekend. Conditions are still
somewhat favorable for a tropical depression to form by early next
week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by
early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually
become more conducive for development through the middle of next
week while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 082309
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Aug 8 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A disorganized area of cloudiness and thunderstorms continues
along and to the south of the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala
and eastern Mexico. A low pressure area is forecast to form within
this area of disturbed weather a few hundred miles south or
southwest of the southern coast of Mexico by this weekend, and
environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for
the formation of a tropical depression by early next week while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Some thunderstorm activity is expected
to continue onshore the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala and
eastern Mexico tonight and Friday, producing locally heavy rainfall,
especially in mountainous areas. These rains are forecast to
gradually spread westward along the coast of southeastern Mexico
over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by
early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually
become more conducive for development through the middle of next
week while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

532
ABPZ20 KNHC 081756
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 8 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms has developed along and to
the south of the coasts of El Salvador and Nicaragua. A low pressure
area is forecast to form within this area of disturbed weather a few
hundred miles south or southwest of the southern coast of Mexico by
this weekend, and environmental conditions are expecdted to be
somewhat conducive for the formation of a tropical depression by
early next week while the system moves west-northwestwad at 10 to 15
mph, offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Some thunderstorm
activity is expected to move onshore along the coasts of El Salvador
and Nicaragua tonight and Friday, producing locally heavy rainfall,
especially in moutainous areas. These rains are forecast to
gradually spread westwrd along the coast of southeastern Mexico over
the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hunderd miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by
early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually
become more conducive for development through the middle of next
week while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081140
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Aug 8 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure area is forecast to form a few hundred miles south
or southwest of the southern coast of Mexico by the end of the week
or early next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are
expected to be somewhat conducive for development, and a tropical
depression could form next week while it moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph, offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 080500
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Aug 7 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure area is forecast to form a few hundred miles south
or southwest of the southern coast of Mexico by the end of the week
or early next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are
expected to be somewhat conducive for development, and a tropical
depression could form next week while it moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph, south of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

186
ABPZ20 KNHC 072321
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Aug 7 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure area is forecast to form a few hundred miles south
or southwest of the southern coast of Mexico by the end of the week.
Thereafter, environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
early next week while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
within a couple of hundred miles of the coast of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila